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Where is Jim Bowden taking my Nationals?

The Washington Nationals were the worst team in baseball last season, and though the Mariners gave them a run for their money this year, it really shouldn’t have been close. There are few bright spots in the Nationals lineup, and even their star, Ryan Zimmerman, would probably only be the 5 hitter on a championship level team. Although Bowden’s latest deal addresses two areas of weakness for the Nationals—starting pitching and power hitting—it is completely uninspiring. Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are not championship-caliber players.

 

Star-divide

Olsen is one of a slew of young, talented arms the Marlins tried to get to stick in the major leagues over the last couple of years. A couple seasons ago he was interchangeable with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, or Ricky Nolasco—unproven, but promising. But while Nolasco, Johnson, and Sanchez have all had seasons of over 100 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, Olsen never has. Since 2006, his K rate has fallen from 8.27 to 5.04.  His ERAs for the past three seasons are 4.04, 5.81, and 4.20. He hit 200 innings for the first time in his career last season; average out his three full seasons and you end up with 186 1/3. The sum of the parts is uninspiring.

 

Scott Olsen is not quite a front-end starter and not quite a workhorse. He is a number 4 or 5 starter, the kind of guy who can play Joe Blanton to the Phillies, Edwin Jackson to the Rays, or Dave Bush to the Brewers. None of these players pushed their teams to the playoffs, and none of them are considered part of those teams’ core. Maybe one of them will put it all together for a season and win 15, but it is likely they end up with the career of Odalis Perez. For next season you can count on Olsen keeping you in (some) games, but not on him winning games for you.

 

Josh Willingham is similarly limited. He’s 29-year-old outfielder whose career highs in batting average (.277), home runs (26), and slugging percentage (.496) all came in 2006. Since then, he’s slipped to .254, 15, and .470, with a bad back limiting his playing time. He’s capable of putting up a .360 OBP, which always has value, but he’s not going to be better than Austin Kearns pre-08. Maybe this was a trade you could have gotten excited about in ‘06, but like many of Jim Bowden’s acquisitions with the Nats (Wily Mo Pena, Kearns, Felipe Lopez, Paul Lo Duca), by the time they got here, these players had proven to everyone else that whatever star potential they had was faded.

 

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Nationals really had nowhere to go but up. Emilio Bonifacio is touted for his speed, which I’ve seen referred to as a perfect 80 on the scout’s scale, but, as the saying goes “you can’t steal first.” His walk rate was below 7% for the last couple seasons in the minors, and he hit .243 in the majors last season. Maybe a Carlos Gomez clone at second works for the Marlins, particularly if he doesn’t cost anything, but the Nationals might as well play Ronnie Belliard.

 

Prospects Josh Smolinski and P.J. Dean were ranked 11 and 31 on Baseball America’s list of top Nationals prospects, so it’s hard to lament their loss. Smolinski is a 19-year-old who did OK at A level ball, and while some scouts think he might develop power, it’s hard to say if this is this is even a future major leaguer we’re talking about. P.J. Dean is a 20-year old who threw 46 good innings of low A ball. Nationals fans may be disappointed in the trade, but there isn’t going to be any deep regret over not having these guys.

 

So what’s the bottom line? Jim Bowden made some marginal upgrades while giving up very little. The Marlins may be happy to have shed payroll, but, on a basis of player talent, the Nationals definitely won this trade. But I still hate Bowden for making it. Why? Because, to a team like the Nationals, this trade is so pointless as to be infuriating.

 

I want the Nationals to build a championship caliber baseball team. In order to do that, they need a core of talented players to lead the way. They need a couple of star pitchers, a couple of star hitters, and a cast of solid regulars all under club control at the same time. They need Evan Longoria’s, Prince Fielder’s, Chase Utley’s, and Chad Billingsley’s. They need long-term deals with consistent contributors at prices that allow them to put more than one star on the field. Right now, they have none of the pieces of a championship team. Not a single one. Zimmerman could be one of the solid regulars in that scheme, but he is not putting up the kind of numbers that lead a team there. What the Nationals need right now are building blocks for the future.

 

The Nationals are not going to contend next season. They probably won’t for the season after that. And if Jim Bowden doesn’t change his approach, I can’t see them contending for the next several years after that. What the Nationals need more than a solid rotation filler or a small-time slugger is someone who could be a star.

 

The formula that created last season’s Rays, Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, and, Red Sox is promoting superstar prospects from the minors together. Longoria/Upton/Kazmir, Fielder/Braun/Sheets, Utley/Howard/Hamels, Ethier/Kemp/Billingsley, Youkilis/Pedroia/Lester—all of these cores were promoted from within their respective teams’ minor league systems. Kazmir was signed by the Mets, but the Rays traded for him when he was still in the minors. That’s the kind of deal that will make an impact on the future of the Nationals.

 

Scott Olsen would make more sense pitching for the Phillies and Josh Willingham would make more sense playing outfield for the Mets. Those are teams that have their core set and need only to fill in the missing pieces to make a Series-run. By the time the Nationals have the core they need to make a run of their own, Olsen and Willingham will likely be gone.

 

So what good do our new acquisitions do us? Do they make a bad team good? No. Do they make a bad team watchable? No, these are not guys you go to the park to root for. But with a few more trades like this, they might make a bad team mediocre. And this is what I am worried about most of all.

 

Right now the Nationals are so bad ownership knows it has to do something. But they could easily sign a Tejada (read: Teixeira) and morph into the Orioles, trapped in year after year of futile average-ness. Olsen could be their Daniel Cabrera and Zimmerman could be their Brian Roberts, and instead of taking their lumps and getting their draft picks, like the Rays, they could make baseball in DC irrelevant.

 

While the Nationals got the better end of this trade, I think both teams come away losers. Bowden has made some solid trades, but unless he decides he wants to stop playing for chump change and start sitting at the big table, I will remain unimpressed.

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The Nats are in a sorry state, I get it

Willingham is a better player than Kearns ever was. Willingham has a career .833 OPS (even despite “slipping”, his OPS was .834 last year). Austin Kearns has a career OPS of .789, even in his best year, 2006, Kearns only posted a .830 OPS. An off year for Willingham is still better than a good year for Kearns.

You hate this trade, why? Basically because the Nationals have a poor farm system void of any real prospects, and won’t be good for years to come? So what is the harm in trading three players who will never be this core that you speak of to improve the current major league team?
Sure, we of the Natmosphere won’t dump the team, but clearly thousands of fans are. The drop in attendance is very worrisome for the FO. As “feel good” as the Rays are, I simply will not support a team that, like the Rays, does not care to field a semi-respectable team for a decade. It’s an illogical approach (along with a fan-base killer which would hurt especially bad for the Nats who don’t have a fan-base), and it’s too bad Rays have become the flavor of the week, because too many people ignore approaches like the Tigers method of rebuilding, in which they signed several older players (Polanco, Pudge, Ordonez, K Rogers) when they were a perennial 90+ loss team. These older players complemented the youth coming through the system nicely, and filled holes that the farm system couldn’t fill.

Look at the Howard/Utley/Rollins/Hamels core. They started the season with an average age of 27.5. Why couldn’t our core of Zimmerman/Dukes/Milledge/Zimmermann, whose average age will be under 24 next year, do the same thing the Phils did but in 3 or 4 years?

Now, it’s the Nats FO’s job to surround this “core” with competent players, which they didn’t do last year. Willingham is one of those players and Olsen very well could regain that 2006 stuff. It’s unlikely either is a piece of our championship team, but it will make us better in the short term without compromising our long term success, and that’s why I like this trade.

by Willl on Nov 12, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rays vs. Tigers

Good point about Willingham vs. Kearns.

I think the difference between the Howard/Utley/Rollins/Hamels core for the Phillies and the Zimmerman/Dukes/Milledge/JZimmermann core is that every one of those Phillies players is better than every one of those Nats players.

Maybe it’s that we lost 100+, maybe it’s the years I played GM simulator games, but I am frustrated with the team.

I think the Tigers are the most compelling counter-example to the Rays, because they did sign some big names, but don’t forget the run they made a few years ago at being the worst team EVER. I would like to see the Nats sign some big names, like the Tigers did, but I want them to do it when their minor leagues are deep enough to sustain success. I’d rather see another 2 90-loss seasons and their minor league system shoot to top 5 than a couple 80-win seasons without a way to take the next step.

by a-danv on Nov 12, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Yankees and Mets are opening new stadiums in NY this season...

…and we all know the kind of names they’re talking about pursuing…The Mets are slowly crawling toward that $200 M payroll line the Yankees crossed years ago…and if either of them sign CC Sabathia, K-Rod, or Texeira, it’s only going to get even more ridiculous…The Nationals are hovering in the $55-60 M range…that’s just ridiculous, not that you have to spend all that money, the Rays proved that…they also had to stink for 10 years to build that team…

Do you remember who the Nationals signed as the big free agents draws to bring out the crowd last season? Odalis Perez, Johnny Estrada, Paul Lo Duca? I think it’s safe to say the team knew the new park would be the draw last season…Now there’s a lot of talk about an interest in Prince Fielder, Tex, Dunn, but the only person I believe they could get of the three is Dunn, and his stated desire to play for a contender kinda rules DC out…

I disagree with Wllll’s assessment of the DC system, which improved tremendously the last few seasons…and was recognized for doing so with a huge jump in Baseball America’s “system” rankings…but I agree that Dean and Smolinski were hardly the stars of the organization.

All I can really think of though, is who would be in the Nationals’ core group right now…

Zimmerman, Balester/Detwiler, Dukes, Flores? Maybe add Strasburg in after this year’s draft?…Zimmerman, Flores, Milledge, Zimmermann?

…and I thought finally leaving Montreal would solve all these problems…stupid naive me…

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Ed Chigliak on Nov 12, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put Lannan and SooperDooks in there, too.

But even so, last season I was filled with hope coming into Opening Day. Now I’m filled with dread. Well, I’m sure Spring Training will bring the false hope back soon enough.

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Nov 12, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comparison time

a-danv, I’m not saying the Nats aforementioned core is better than the Phillies, or even comparable right now. What I am saying is to look at how Utley/Rollins/Howard/Hamels were doing 4 years ago, when they were roughly the same age as Zimm/Dukes/Milledge/JZimm. So let’s do that.

In 2005
Utley: .291/.376/.540
Howard: .288/.356/.567 (in 88 games)
Rollins: .290/.338/.431
Hamels: 35 IP/2.31 ERA/37K/19BB (between A+ and AA)

Yes, the Phillies core is more talented than the Nationals’, but looking at this comparitively, Hamels are J Zimmermann are comparable at this point, Dukes is a weaker Utley, Zimmerman is Howard minus 100 SLG points (which is rather significant), and Milledge is a lesser version of Rollins.
However, I might also note that these Phillies players had the advantage of playing on an 88 win team, with the likes of Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome and Pat Burrell protecting them, so their stats are boosted a bit. Also, the Phillies benefit from having Rollins and Utley play at generally weaker-hitting positions (and are excellent defensively at those positions), so their added benefit is greater than the Nats’ core, which consists largely of your typical power positions.

So in the end, we are not as good as the Phillies, but we aren’t as far off as many people claim we are. If we can put together a healthy 2009 (2008 was a fluke for injuries), in which our core develops, then we add the likes of Strasburg and Mr. 9B and a couple talented veterans in 2010, we have the potential to be a pretty good team.

All this doom and gloom is really getting me down.

by Willl on Nov 13, 2008 6:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nats 2009

The nationals will have a good 2009 if no one big gets injured. I heard that the nationals might have Adam Dunn falling towards Nationals for playing and that Burnett said that he might like D.C. as a suitor.

The Trade-Maker

by dasox313 on Nov 16, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Scott Olsen is worth a shot….no guts no glory!

http://www.freewebs.com/afanofthegame/

by beentheredonethat on Nov 15, 2008 8:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen

It is going to be an experiment. Willingham is animprovement over Kearns and Olsen is a ok player. The Nats payed a big price though. At least the Nats aren’t trying an experiment with Edgar Renteria.

The Trade-Maker

by dasox313 on Nov 16, 2008 4:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jim Bowden isn't terrible, not great, but certainly not terrible!

I understand that Jim bowden isn’t the greatest GM, and to be honest he is good at best but he is trying very hard with what little he has to work with.

Following the 2005 season the Nationals once again(of course going back to Montreal) had the last ranked farm system 2 out of the four last years and in the since then 06-08 Washington’s farm system has gotten better with each season.

Now i believe they are in top 5 as rated by baseball america.

With his working of several trades he is obviously trying and all of the trades that he has made at the time have made sense, except for maybe Rauch for Bonifacio straight up but without him we may not have gotten Olsen and Willingham, so it payed off.

Although they haven’t impressed players like Clippard, Mock(although not a bad first time reliever but time will tell), Chico, etc. were obtained for virtually nothing.

And with the addition of most likely Dunn and another innings eating pitcher i really like the potential of not just the ‘10 Nats but of the ’09 Nats, i’m not saying playoffs, but they could be like the Marlins a few years ago who were in the wild-card hunt until about two weeks left in the season.

Here’s my ‘09 lineup:(sorry guys no teixiera, he’s not worth $25 million, Boras is his agent, think about it Manny will get at least that, probably 27-30 million)

1.SS Cristian Guzman
2. CF Lastings Milledge
3. 3B Ryan Zimmerman(with protection he will show he can bat 3)
4. 1B Adam Dunn
5. RF Elijah Dukes(hopefully he gets his act together, he could easily be a star)
6. C Jesus Flores(great average last year with runners in scoring position)
7. LF Josh Willingham(bye Kearnsy)
8. 2B Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard(spring training will decide)
9. P John Lannan(Guys until someone proves other wise he is deserving of ace)

Starting Rotation
John Lannan
Scott Olsen
Tim Redding
Collin Balester
Jordan Zimmermann/Ross Detwiler(Spring Training)

If the Nats obtain Garland, Lowe, or Burnett, Redding will probably be traded or sent on assignment because fifth spot will likely go to young minor league arm.

Considering Bowden is the reason for the majority or good number of those players being here i think he has done a pretty decent job, but not great, and for once his liking of Reds players might work in the Nats favor, plus Dunn is friends with Kearns, so the nats can’t sign or release kearns until Dunn is signed with some team but i can live with him as long as he’s not starting!

by Comebackkid814 on Nov 22, 2008 11:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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