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Tuesday Nats Stats--Tex-Ra vs. Big Wilkie

In this quickly-churned-out edition of Tuesday Nats Stats, we take a cursory glance at the two prime contenders for "2009 Nats Big Bat" on the Hot Stove.  Mark "$160M" Teixeira and Adam "A Bigger Wilkerson" Dunn.

Star-divide

First up, the batting.

Tex-Ra does it all:  career OPS+ of 134 (100 is average) and he's managed a 150 OPS+ in both of the last two seasons.  His career line is 290/378/541 and he's hit something like 305/405/560 the last two years.  He doesn't strike out too much for a power hitter (about 15% of PA, dropping in recent years) and he can walk (just over 10% of PA, also improving in recent years).  Good for 30+ HR, 110ish RBI.

Dunn is more a traditional slugger: career OPS+ is 130, more or less steady over his career.  His line is 247/381/518 career, with no real trends over the last few seasons.  He walks more than Tex-Ra (about 15% of PA) and strikes out a whole lot more (26% of PA).  Consistently gets 40 HR, 100 RBI.

Advantage Tex. Of note, his OBP has been slowly but steadily improving while his power has stayed constant--is he getting better? By comparison, Dunn's numbers are remarkably consistent over the last few years.

Next, fielding.

Tex-Ra has a league average FP and his range factor (a rough guide to how many plays he makes) is well above average at 1B, and average-to-below-average in the OF.

Dunn is average at 1B and LF, below average in RF.

Again, advantage Tex-Ra.

The critical question: who has the advantage if we can really get Dunn for $36M/3yr, vs Teixeira at $160M/8yr?  I think there's a case to be made that Big Wilkie is well more than half the ballplayer Tex-Ra is. So, Dunn for a 40% discount--a better deal?

Discuss.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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I try my best not to just react personally...

…as in I just don’t like Adam Dunn…I’m more of a line-drive/double kind of guy, than a fan of the real power hitters, a fan of guys who can really hit and not just swing hard in case…with that in mind, watching half of our lineup chase breaking balls all year was particularly painful…

Dunn hit .236 last season. .2-3-6? That’s Felipe Lopez with a lot of HR’s? That’s not a fair comparison, I realize…and yet the Big Donkey, nay, Dunn-K, or the "Bigger Wilkerson" did, however hit 26 more HR’s than anyone on Washington…with 39 more RBI’s than any DC player…Dunn at $36M/3years is a far better deal than paying $20+ million for anyone…My problem is not thinking either guy is a great fit…Why sign a $20 M dollar first baseman and go with a young (green) starting staff…

That K/PA stat is telling…Teixeira’s a better hitter obviously, but “Chicks dig the long ball” as the Steroid-Era ads go...Is it too soon for Steroid jokes? I’ve held off until now…

Dunn’s below average defensively in right…Willingham’s a left fielder…Milledge can’t play center according to some, but Dukes can…Kearns plays right and can’t play center, and WMP can’t hit the curve ball…

But I’m a man who likes a deal, and the 40% savings on Dunn has sold me!!!

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Ed Chigliak on Dec 16, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Be fair, it's FLop with a lot of HRs *and* a good number of walks.

Hmm, is his wife hot?

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Dec 16, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Survey on clutch

Hi!

I’m Kristin, a University of Pennsylvania psychology student and a huge baseball fan. I am currently conducting an honors thesis study on clutch ability and psychological characteristics of Major league baseball players. I made a survey asking fans to rate players from various teams on certain characteristics. One of these teams is the Nationals and it would be great to have some Nationals fans fill out my survey and rate their favorite players. Here is some background info:

What is “clutch”? What players are considered “clutch” performers? What players are “gritty” or have natural talent? Are these players also “clutch”? These frequently cited terms in the game of baseball have rarely been objectively studied. I have created a survey asking about some Major League players’ characteristics and it would be great if some of you, being huge baseball fans, could fill it out! It should only take a maximum of 10 minutes. Also, I would love to hear any comments that you have about my survey! Thanks so much for all your help!

Here is the website for my survey: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=VUWValhJzb65tk1lZoMMEQ_3d_3d

Kristin

by baseballkristin on Dec 17, 2008 4:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

LOL!

I’m on my way to work. I can’t wait. You know what, if this isn’t a joke, you’d be much better served going to the METS blog. (Nothing against your blog "E"). There is not a larger group of people in the world who hate or use the word clutch more than them.

I suppose after reading your initial post that you would be immediately banned once Simon hears about it. LOL! I can see the posts now.

" We got "The Rod"...What you got? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 17, 2008 7:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kristin, If you'd like, either I or you can put this in a FanPost and i'll put it on the front page...

…so everyone sees it and not just those reading the comments…? Let me know.

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Ed Chigliak on Dec 17, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Survey Complete.

I was very worried that I would be sent directly to a Rick Astley video. :-)

  • As far as objective goes, I think the only thing that is completely objective is…Math.

" We got "The Rod"...What you got? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 17, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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