Tuesday Nats Stats--Tex-Ra vs. Big Wilkie

In this quickly-churned-out edition of Tuesday Nats Stats, we take a cursory glance at the two prime contenders for "2009 Nats Big Bat" on the Hot Stove.  Mark "$160M" Teixeira and Adam "A Bigger Wilkerson" Dunn.

First up, the batting.

Tex-Ra does it all:  career OPS+ of 134 (100 is average) and he's managed a 150 OPS+ in both of the last two seasons.  His career line is 290/378/541 and he's hit something like 305/405/560 the last two years.  He doesn't strike out too much for a power hitter (about 15% of PA, dropping in recent years) and he can walk (just over 10% of PA, also improving in recent years).  Good for 30+ HR, 110ish RBI.

Dunn is more a traditional slugger: career OPS+ is 130, more or less steady over his career.  His line is 247/381/518 career, with no real trends over the last few seasons.  He walks more than Tex-Ra (about 15% of PA) and strikes out a whole lot more (26% of PA).  Consistently gets 40 HR, 100 RBI.

Advantage Tex. Of note, his OBP has been slowly but steadily improving while his power has stayed constant--is he getting better? By comparison, Dunn's numbers are remarkably consistent over the last few years.

Next, fielding.

Tex-Ra has a league average FP and his range factor (a rough guide to how many plays he makes) is well above average at 1B, and average-to-below-average in the OF.

Dunn is average at 1B and LF, below average in RF.

Again, advantage Tex-Ra.

The critical question: who has the advantage if we can really get Dunn for $36M/3yr, vs Teixeira at $160M/8yr?  I think there's a case to be made that Big Wilkie is well more than half the ballplayer Tex-Ra is. So, Dunn for a 40% discount--a better deal?

Discuss.