Should The Washington Nationals Pursue Adam Dunn? And, What Does Their Pursuit Of "That Other Guy" Tell Us?
Why Do You Want DC To Sign Adam Dunn?
I'm surprised, somewhat, by the results of the most recent Poll here at federalbaseball.com which asks, "Who do the Nationals turn to as their next free agent target?". Surprised at the number of votes we've gotten compared to the usual participation and surprised that so many of you want Adam Dunn on the '09 Nationals' roster...74 of 252 votes, or 29% of those who voted, want the Nationals to sign Adam Dunn...(presumably to play 1st, since Josh Willingham was acquired to play left, I think?) Why do you want Dunn exactly? Convince me...Consider it a challenge...(ed. note - "Manny Ramirez is currently the 2nd choice amongst voters.")
My argument against signing Dunn, as I've stated often, starts with the K's, though Dunn's .381 career OBP is a lot higher than I would've imagined. He's guaranteed to hit 40/100? (At least with Brandon Phillips, Griffey, Jr. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce hitting around him? How about with Zim, Dukes, and Lasto?) Nick Johnson and DY are already under contract for a total of $10.5M next season, and with both of them battling back from another set of injuries/health problems, they're virtually untradeable unless you absorb money or just take a loss to part with the players, so signing Dunn for another $10-$12M per, (I keep on hearing somewhere around 3Y-$30M), just doesn't make sense to me? The A's have expressed interest in Nick Johnson('s medical records), but they're also said to be interested in Jason Giambi for first in Oakland, and that is the only Nick Johnson rumor i've heard. Plus, paying that much for a player, like Dunn, who won't drastically improve the team's chances for success doesn't seem financially responsible? (ed. note - "That other free agent offer was crazy too...")...After all, Alfonso Soriano hits 41 doubles and 46 HR's and collected 95 RBI's and the Nationals finished 71-91???
Make a case for Adam Dunn...Convice the doubters? Or just pile on the insulting nicknames like, "Dunn-K" or "The Bigger Wilkerson"? Your choice...
Don't Know How To Take That, Mr. Boras?
So, I'm reading Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's Nationals Journal post entitled, "Boras: For Tex It Just Came Down To Winning", where Mr. Harlan relates the story of how the Yankees' new $180M dollar first baseman's agent, Scott "Maximum" Boras, had called him to give a sort of post mortem of the Nationals' pursuit of his prize offensive free agent client, and had stated that:
"...I think the Nationals did everything they could do both with their economic commitment, the time and effort that was made in every attempt to bring Mark to Washington..."
...and, according to Mr. Boras, the Nationals put forth an all-out, professional effort that impressed both the agent** and his client, who, ultimately, decided that, "...in his career, he really needed to be working for a club that would be giving him an opportunity to win now." ...Uh? So the Nationals did everything they possibly could in terms of money, their approach, and the argument for the team they presented to Mr. Boras' client...And he decided that Washington wasn't for him?...Decided that there was a better chance of winning in a division that also features the Red Sox and the upstart Rays? New York was a better place for his family than DC? The lure of the pinstripes? What does it say about Washington as a destination for free agents when they give their very best effort and still come up short? (He WAS AN O's fan from Maryland!!! AND HE SIGNED WITH NY??? When is someone gonna show DC some love?)
(ed. note - " ** = As the first reader comment to Mr. Harlan's piece noted, and as I've said I'd hoped for since the beginning of the free agent season...At least Mr. Boras came away impressed with the organization, as he told, Mr. Harlan:
"...('It's clear you've got an ownership group committed to being successful... There's a passion there about what they want to get done...')"
...so when DC drafts Stephen Strasburg with the #1 overall pick in '09, at least he'll have a good impression to pass on to his client.")
Dominican Winter League UPDATE...
With a three-run top of the ninth, the Azucareros del Este staged a late-game comeback against the Tigres del Licey to win 8-7 in the second game of the Dominican Winter League Playoffs for the Tigres, who are now 1-1 in Postseason play. DC and Licey second baseman Anderson Hernandez was 1 for 5 with a double, his second in 2 Playoff games, and 1 RBI, also his 2nd in 2 games...Ronnie Belliard started at third for Licey, but never hit, he's listed as 0 for 0, with an "S" and his name under the box score? WHAT DOES THIS (S) MEAN? WHAT'S THE (S)?...Uh, ...Belliard was hit by a pitch in the 3rd and left the game...Uh-oh?
Puerto Rican Winter League...
The Criollos de Caguas beat the Gigantes de Carolina today, by a 6-1 score with DC prospects Justin Maxwell and Garrett Guzman both in the Caguas' lineup, and contributing to the win. Maxwell, starting in left and hitting fifth, was 1 for 3 with a run scored and 2 walks, and Guzman was 0 for 4 with a walk and a run scored. Maxwell, who's tied for second in the PRWL with six other players with 6 HR's this Winter, has also collected 7 doubles, 1 triple and 22 RBI's in 33 games, over which he's hit for a .222 AVG., a .394 OBP, .472 SLG...Guzman's hitting .275 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR's and 17 RBI's in 34 games, with a .356 OBP and .433 SLG...(though he's 0 for 2 in steal attempts.)
Make your case for Adam Dunn, here in the Comments section, or in a FANPOST, which I'll promote if you're persuasive...
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Comments
I'm putting ESPN on mute...
…So I can pay 100% attention to what I’m about to write.
Dunn – Feast or famine, wouldn’t everyone agree? As I stated in another post, the guy was 5th oveall in the NL in strikeouts. To put him on a team that was 9th in the NL in strikeouts just exacerbates the strikeout problem. However, I think it’s a worthy gamble considering the lack of HR/RBI production out of the entire team in the ’08 season.
Dunn part deux – Where do you put him in the lineup? It can’t be cleanup. You’ve got to put him 3rd or 5th. I don’t know how often I could watch Dunn strikeout w/RISP. He’s just too much of a liability in the cleanup position. Yes, yes, I know I’m arguing against myself when I stated in the first paragraph that I wanted him because of his HR/RBI production. But isn’t arguing against yourself a respectable quality? It shows you’re objective, no? I think the 3, 4, 5 lineup should look like this:
Willingham
Zimmerman
Dunn
Hell, there’s 162 games in the season. Tinker with it. See what fits best. But that 3, 4, 5 looks pretty respectable to me.
Dunn part three – Money. I can’t speak that smartly when it comes to contracts but it seems to me if we were willing to go “all in” w/Tex, why not give Dunn the 3/$10 mil deal and concentrate everything else on pitching? The lineup with Dunn in it is respectable provided that Milledge, Dukes and Zimmerman IMPROVE. It’s obvious that when you’re trying to build a competitive team, it’s a moderate to long term approach. Let’s see what the current pitching staff can do. If they completely “upchuck” then make a move in the summer for an above average arm and prepare for next season.
********************************************************************************************************
Teixeira – Honestly, who can compete with the Yankees history / tradition / championships / wallet and exposure? The only thing good that has come out of this as far as I’m concerned is that; I’ve learned to spell his last name correctly without thinking about it.
" Washington focuses its bailouts on people who take showers before going to work rather than on those people who need a shower after they work. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 28, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stop worrying and learn to love the K
K’s are not the worst thing in the world. They are slightly worse than a fly out that might let a runner advance, and slightly better than a ground ball that might turn into a double-play. I used to root for a team with a slap-hitting shortstop batting second and used to PRAY for him to strike out rather than send a weak grounder to a middle-infielder as was his habit.
Adam Dunn is being projected to have an OPS between .871 and .913. That’s a productive player at any position. He was worth two wins over replacement last season according to Fangraphs, making him worth $8.7 million based on what teams paid for a win last season. He was paid more than that, however, so if you can get the guy for something around $10 million it would probably be a decent bet. Unfortunately guys don’t take salary cuts in free agency and he’s probably looking for more than the $13 million he made last year.
Bottom line is, he’s a good deal at the right price.
by short on Dec 28, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll respond in more depth to these later, i'm running around all day today...
…but for now, here’s Adam Dunn’s Projected numbers from the Bill James Handbook spreadsheet I got a few months back…
Dunn in ‘09 - 29yo, 159 G, 562 AB’s, 138 hits, .246 AVG, 30 2B, 1 3B, 42 HR, 100 R, 103 RBI’s, .386 OBP, .527 SLG, .913 OPS.
With DC’s offensive struggle, it’s hard to say, “I don’t want THAT on my team…” but I’ve yet to hear one person say anything good about Dunn at first, defensively, and the anecdotal evidence of his work in left is even less impressive…If both were healthy, I’d choose Nick Johnson over Dunn any day…in light of what we’ve seen from Johnson recently…well I’m not welcoming Dunn yet, but I’m warming, though I still think he ends up with a contender…
(ed. note – " I’m starting my research, unless I can convince the estimable Doghouse to continues his Tuesday Nats Stats column all season again to satisfy those Sabermetric inclined…, I’m gonna have to get with the new-age of numbers…Fangraphs…Hardball Times….where else can an old school fan start catching up?")
"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA
by Ed Chigliak on Dec 28, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
short
well friend. if one thing pisses me off more than anything, it’s RLB (runners left on base) and RLBRISP (runners left on base in scoring position). When there’s one out and a guy on 2nd and / or 3rd and the guy at the plate strikes out, I literally lose my mind. It just takes too many options away from the manager as how to approach the following at bat. It happened a lot w/the Mets last year, so that’s the reason for my aversion to strikeout artist.
" Washington focuses its bailouts on people who take showers before going to work rather than on those people who need a shower after they work. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 28, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lou, your disdain for the K is shared here...
…the feeble groundout might be as annoying, but the K…especially when a player just won’t stop swinging for the fences is somethings I can’t stands…
I admit I haven’t watched Dunn too much, cause I’m not a big fan, of his or the Reds…(except Homer Bailey, who has a name that sounds like he’ll end up being famous)……so I’m judging Dunn mostly on reputation, (and stats) which both say, big numbers, big swings, big whiffs…
I do like home runs though…and I disagree with the gentleman below’s assertion that the Nationals won’t be good anytime soon…I think there’s a chance they could be very good in a few seasons…
"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA
by Ed Chigliak on Dec 29, 2008 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teixiera / Dunn / and other Free Agents
You are semi-correct in a few of your statements regarding Teixiera. Yes, he grew up an Orioles fan. But, you failed to leave out that his father is friends with Bucky Dent (infamous Yankee), and he grew up idolizing Don Mattingly (Yankee). So to follow his idol and play 1st base for the Yankees…whats wrong with that?
The previous comments regarding Dunn are all solid. His OBP numbers far outweigh is strike out totals and would be a nice piece in the middle of the Nationals order. Keep in mind that the team is not good nor will be good. Period. So Dunn is a middle order guy with some pop who will come far cheaper than other options. Perhaps his contact won’t be as long and they can further develop talent for next year. The Diamondbacks also did not offer Dunn arbitration, so they don’t lose a pick in next years draft, which enhances their future in more ways than one. (Arguably the most important part of the developing organization. If they are willing to spend the money on Teixiera, why not good money on a few first and second round picks).
I do not like the move, however, because I am a Nick Johnson fan and actually believe he is the best player on the Nats…when healthy (agreed key part here). I’d prefer for them to give him another shot and see if they can trade him at the deadline for some talent. Dunn just adds to the cluster (blank) of an outfield that can’t produce and can’t stay healthy. He is a below avg. first baseman defensively and will create 3 contracts for a 1st base position (Dunn, Johnson, Young), while they have 5 or so outfield contracts for 3 positions (Milledge, Pena, Willingham, Kearns, Duke…and arguably Harris, Dunn). Thats a cluster of contracts that really don’t stand out from one another. It would improve their offense to sign Dunn but I Bowden needs to get really creative with his players and trade them.
No one stands out in Free Agency for the Nationals. They have glaring holes everywhere but too many players at those positions. They could sign Orlando Hudson but have a stupid contract with Belliard, and just signed Harris. They could try and sign an Orlando Cabrera but have a far worse contract with Guzman. Their issue is that they took too many risks on players last year, and none of them panned out. Now they have clusters of mediocre players, all of whom are not better than the other, only they have health issues as something in common. Bowden has dug his own hole and will now attempt to make a play on a “big name” to try and show the Nationals fans he is serious…or as I see it serious… ly stupid. The answer to that is Adam Dunn who will put up numbers, and perhaps hopefully help Ryan Zimmerman develop.
by Bsullivan on Dec 28, 2008 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't know much personally about Teixeira...
…i’ve just admired him from afar until he was with Atlanta recently, but I didn’t hear that info about his father at all til you wrote it…I’ll file it away under things I don’t want to know about Yankees’ players. Just kidding. There’s nothing wrong with taking all that money or playing for the Yanks, unless you’re a fan of another team, and a team that thought they might get someone the Yanks swooped in on…but I didn’t think it was a good idea anyway, and i’m over it…now to convince Dunn to sign elsewhere…
I’d argue that signing Dunn stunts the growth of the organization…I say Nick Johnson, (also a big NJ fan) and whoever emerges from a Spring Training backup battle from amongst DY and the prospects…I’d go so far as to say Nick Johnson’s the best hitter on the Nationals…best player? And now I’ll write, “When he’s healthy” like everyone has to after mentioning Unlucky Nick’s name…
I still think Milledge or Kearns goes before the season starts…
The chase for a “big name” has been called many things here at federalbaseball.com…
"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA
by Ed Chigliak on Dec 29, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully...
I hope some outfielders get shipped. It would make sense to release Kearns at this point as he has failed to produce as a National, perhaps he needs a “change of scenery”. What if anything could you get for a career .260 hitter? He is 29 and doesn’t do anything particularly well. While I like the guy, I don’t like his game.
As far as Milledge is concerned, I think you have to keep him. If you want growth for the Nationals then who is better suited than Lastings? Granted he can’t play center, but he is 23 years old, having just played a (almost) full season. I’d say give him another shot and see what he can do. The Nats have no talent, that I am aware of, knocking at the door to fill the void in center field. He is a legitimate 20/20 candidate in a full season next year, even 20/30. Though I’d hesitate to put him at the top of the order.
I am excited to see a full season from Elijah Dukes. I hope it happens. He could be a monster and a game changer. If he plays 145 games, it would be a 30/30 year and he’ll be the talk of baseball. Check out his splits.
Truthfully this isn’t the offseason for change in Washington. There are too many bad contracts, and I repeat, Guzman, Belliard, Dmitri Young…and whomever else. They are subpar players who aren’t going to lead the organization anywhere. Its as if Bowden is trying to build the foundation around these guys. I never understood his reasoning about resigning Dmitri Young. Never ever. And why Guzman?
I say keep their present starters, improve their health somehow, new training program or whatever and keep these guys on the field for 2009. Their injuries were ridiculous last year., and the year before, and the year before. (Do they actually want to play) Lets see what they can do in 162. They need to trade at least one outfielder, forget about Dmitri Young who will be out of baseball in a year, and sign an old fart like Bartolo Colon and hope for a career rebound for a quick summer trade.
The Mets and Phillies are too good to compete against next year. Why take a short term solution?
The one major concern is Ryan Zimmerman. At this point he has confirmed that he isn’t the player we had all hoped he’d be. I’d argue he is a career 6 hole guy in the MLB for an above avg. team. Defensively you can’t beat him, but he is losing offensive development as long as their team is full of bandaids. In that sense, maybe you should sign Dunn. At least he’ll always be on the field and in the four hole??? A good 11/12 punch.
by Bsullivan on Dec 29, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Reseason you want Adam Dunn
If you want a guy who can put up an OPS of around 900 a year you want Adam Dunn. If you want a guy who plays great defense look else were. If you want a “small ball” guy look else were.
He only had Votto batting around him 2008, and a small fraction of 2007. Phillips struggles to get on base, with a OBP of .312 in 2008. Griffey was pretty miserable last year. Dunn, Votto, and Bruce, were the Cincinnati offense last year. His RBI’s have always been surpressed do to the inability of those around him to get on base. You have to remember for much fo rhte first two months Corey Patterson was leading off in Cincinnati. If you want a guy who will play 150 games, hit 40 homeruns, and get on base 38% of the time Dunn is your man. I don’t konw what is wrong with that line. The only problem with his game is his defense. The thought of him and Pena in the outfield still gives me nightmares.
I would love to see Dunn patrolling LF in Cincinnati again.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 28, 2008 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
what i want
is a definition of “Reseason”

" Washington focuses its bailouts on people who take showers before going to work rather than on those people who need a shower after they work. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 28, 2008 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't ever mention Dunn and Pena in an outfield again...Please?
You’ll make us all shiver. I’ll admit, I just assembled the names of Reds around Dunn off the top of my head with little regard for the amount of time each has been in the lineup and effective, so I agree with your checking me there…
Corey Patterson is a National now too…(ed. note – “My editor, Winston Smith, thinks Patterson will be starting in center and leading off…I laughed him off…I’ve often regretted doing that, but I think I’m safe this time…”)
I’d rather see Dunn in left than at first…but DC signed Willingham already as one of many redundancies on the Nationals’ roster…so why add Dunn to the already crowded 1st or OF situations…
And simply put, I don’t think Dunn will be good enough by the time the Nationals are good enough…so why waste the money when there’s pitchers to be signed, drafted and bought?
"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA
by Ed Chigliak on Dec 29, 2008 2:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very real possibility
I am willing to admit an open competition heading into spring training, although I shudder to think corey patterson is still considered a starter. We were trying to obtain Taveras earlier, so clearly front office is fishing for a CF. If we get one, looks like milledge is the odd man out, which makes willie harris the even man after the odd man. The nationals have to look at 1B not as a 2009 problem but as a position which will need to be filled for as long as they are playing games. Even if NJ stays healthy in 2009, we HOPE for 200 games over the next 2 years, so why consider him your plan A? The time to look for first base is now, not when NJ gets hurt or his contract expires. What’s the plan for first base? Is there anyone in our system that will be MLB ready opening day 2010? By MLB ready, a 1B should be hitting for 20/80 at a minimum. If we don’t have that available, 1B FA like Dunn is a necessity. Guaranteed if we stick with NJ, next season we will have the same deficiency. Either :
a) ‘he was healthy last year so hopefully he is again this year(50/50)’, he needs a new contract, the backup plan is ….
b) ‘he was hurt last year, hopefully he makes a comeback’, if the nats offer him a contract, the backup plan is….
c) ‘Nick Johnson broke in half on the last play, Manager Acta had D. Young and R. Belliard perform situps in the dugout, the first one to hit ten had the honor of playing first.’
by VA SLIM on Dec 29, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Admittedly...
I do dream of the potential in Elijah Dukes and Wily Mo Pena. Two guys I will always be jealous of as they were made enormous men with little ability to control it. I only wish I had been given those god given talents.
I think Bowden sees the same thing and just waits for them to break out. It may happen with Dukes, but never with Pena.
I think the Mets should actually take a stab at him. His splits against lefties are pretty good, which was apparent in Boston. Why not rotate him with Church?
by Bsullivan on Dec 29, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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