(ed. note - "For Tuesday Night's Game Report click here.")

Today's stats extravaganza (inspired, as always, by the latest update to the Nationals Progress Index ) comes courtesy of The Hardball Times .  We're going to take a look at BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play.  BABIP is a measure of how many of the balls that a player hits actually fall in for hits.  Think of it like batting average with all the strikeouts removed.

What is BABIP good for?  Well, it's kind of a measure of how lucky a hitter is:  if his BABIP is a lot higher than the league average (which is around .300), he's hitting 'em where they ain't; conversely, if his BABIP is low, he's smacking 'em straight into gloves.  You can expect most player's BABIPs to converge to the league average over the course of the season--those runs of lucky/unlucky drops and seeing-eye singles can't last forever!  We'll also take a look at line-drive percentage (LD%).  As the name implies, this is the fraction of hits than are line drives--generally, about 75% will be hits, so a high LD% means that a high BABIP may not be a lucky fluke.

Jesus and the Snowman

Both have BABIPs of .400, meaning a heart-rending regression to the mean is somewhere in their future--especially when you consider the tiny number of PA these stats are based on.  Note that Flores is hitting the ball hard, however--his LD% is 31.2 compared to Wil's meager 9.7.  Although it's tough to argue anything based on less than 50 PA each, this hints that Flores might be for real (OPS+ of 200... likely to come down a bit) while Wil (OPS+ of 124 and falling) might fall back to something more like his career .199/.241/.271 line.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

Is the top of the order for real?

GUUUUZ! and FLop have been pleasant surprises this year.  Guz continues to hit every ball in sight, and it's for real--his BABIP is an average .313 with a LD% of 15.2. He's earning his league-average 100 OPS+ the old-fashioned way--by hitting the ball every chance he gets.  FLop's BABIP of .323 is slightly above average, so that OPS+ of 76 might waver.  But at least FLop can take a walk now and then!

The Troubled Middle

You can see why Manny is still hopeful--the middle of the order has been having some bad luck with where the balls are falling.  Zimmerman's BABIP is .262, Johnson's is .247, Kearns' is a depressing .222!  They just have to keep hitting the ball, and the hits will come (LD%: Kearns, 17.1; Zimmy, 19.2; Nick, 24.4).  Ah, but what about Lasto?  Milledge is right there with a league-average .304 BABIP, and he's hitting the ball hard (LD% 25.2).  Sure, his OPS+ is only 77, he needs to show little more power and walk a bit, but the potential's there.  He's also almost as patient as Nick--he sees 4.1 pitches per plate appearance vs. NJ's 4.2!  Kearns, too, sees 4.1/PA and actually Ks less often than NJ!  Unfortunately, Bluegrass hits 'em right at somebody instead of getting ball 4.  Zimmy only sees 3.6/PA--take some pitches, Z-Man!  Wily Mo has walked as much as Zimmy so far this year in about half the PA.

Largely due to his Discerning Eye and a few doubles, Nick is the only Nat right now with a "real" OPS+ above 100 (it's 124--and by "real," I mean with a lot of PA behind it).  Given his high LD% and low BABIP, that's probably only going to get better as the season goes on.  Nick's OPS+ was 149 for 2006!

The Sluggers

Well, that's Wily Mo and Dukes, both of whom have had limited playing time.  Dukes is still finding his feet, 0 for his 12 PA.  He seems a bit impatient, with a team-low 2.6 pitches/PA.  WMP and his 42 OPS+ confound me.  His .296 BABIP is right about average. He's not hitting 'em right at folks, he's just not hitting.  And when he is?  No power: two extra-base hits (doubles) on the season.  I think both he and Zimmy need to work on their batting eye (yeah, yeah, fire Lenny...).

The Bench

There are a few surprises here. First off, Estrada was hitting the heck out of the ball (LD% 30.6) right into gloves (BABIP a team-low .194!). I apologize for demanding he be sent down for being useless, and change my demand to him being sent down for being cursed. Aaron "Are You Scared Yet, ZImmy?" Boone has a 148 OPS+ in 51 PA, and it's pretty real: LD% of 15.8 and BABIP of .314.  He's getting hits because he's hitting the ball.  Yeah, yeah, small sample, I know.  Belliard shows that he's a pro, seeing 4.1 pitches/PA and managing an OPS+ of 78 despite an unlucky .229 BABIP.  His patience has given him 50% more walks than Zimmy in less than half the PA!

What have we learned?

There's some foundation for hoping our offensive will improve.

• Guz has been getting hits by hitting!  Not a fluke.
• When the middle of the order regresses to the mean, they'll be getting more hits, not less.  In the meantime, they're patient.  Except for Zimmy. Also, Nick is teh aw3s0m3!!!11!
  

There are also some cautions.

• Wil "the thrill" and Jesus "the savior" are looking a little fluky.  But we don't care, right?
• Our sluggers aren't.  I can give it another dozen games to "find their strokes" or "work out their timing" before I start really whining, though.

Anyhow, it's not out of the question that Our Nationals could finish strong this season, like last season.