Work has let up enough that I can screw around and surf baseball stats for a bit.  A recent post on Nationals Review got me thinking about league-average and replacement-level players.  It turns out that I hold the common misconception that the two are the same. They're not.  "League average" is a player who's in the middle of the pack in the big leagues.  That's a decent ballplayer--you might reasonably expect a team where everyone is league average to play 0.500 ball.  Not so with "replacement level"--that's a scrub out of AAA who you call up when someone gets hurt (think Roger Bernadina, or the 2007 version of Ryan Langerhans).  He's probably okay in the field, but not really ready for big-league pitching. A team of "replacement level" players is essentially a triple-A team; we're talking bad like '62 Mets bad with a record around 44-118 (see this article for a good discussion).

So, with all the unkind references to the "NAAAts" that you see around the interwebs, I thought I'd take a look at how close we are to league average. Stats, as usual, from the estimable baseball-reference.com.  As always, "league average" on stats like OPS+ is 100: higher than 100 is above average; lower than 100 is below average.  So, who's league average? Answers after the jump!

Who's average?

Cristian Guzman is sporting an OPS+ of exactly 100.  He is dead-on league average, with a 310/339/423 batting line.  "But he's our all star!" you say, "He leads the league in hits!" Yes, and also in at-bats.  The Guz is your classic contact hitter, and he sprays the ball all over the field. But he barely walks--only 16 BB in 460 PA. That's a lower walk rate than notoriously-non-Discerning-Eyed WMP (who has 10 in 206 PA).  He hits for a little bit of power, but not much--and certainly not enough to overcome his lack of walks. I still remember the period early this season when his BA was higher than his OBP!

Who's good?

Jesus Flores has cooled off a bit from his scorching post-Columbus pace, but he's still hanging on to slightly-above-average with an OPS+ of 106 (hitting 288/340/446). He gets on base at the same rate as The Guz, thanks to his ability to take a walk, and he's still holding on to some power (despite his five-single game earlier this week). He's also absurdly "clutch" with a team-leading .393 average with RISP and 40 RBI (Guz is second with 34, despite batting 1st or 2nd for most of the season).

Ronnie Belliard, on the other hand, is only getting better, with an OPS+ of 108 and a 234/337/457 line. His recent power explosion has him with the highest SLG on the team, and great patience at the plate doesn't hurt.

Dmitri Young, despite his struggles and injuries this season, is still managing a 111 OPS+. He's batting 280/394/400--less power than we'd hope, certainly, but a fine batting eye.  His walk rate is second among players we can reasonably expect to see again this season (I'm not counting NJ's absurd isolated patience (OBP-AVG) of 195).

Also with a 111 OPS+ is Elijah Dukes, who pulled his line all the way up to 263/367/434 before getting hurt--remember when he was batting 038?  It's all there: good contact, nice patience, and a little bit of power.  Those numbers were all headed toward "Marquee Player" when the Baseball Gods went all Tonya Harding on his ass. The 10 SB with only 1 CS are just the icing on the cake.

But, who would have thought Willie Harris would be Dukes' batting twin, also with a 111 OPS+? Talk about an odd couple! (Or Three Stooges Musketeers, maybe, if we include Da Meathook.)  "Li'l" Willie is batting 248/366/433 right now--what kind of nonsense is this?  He owns the highest walk rate on the team (not counting NJ); his SLG is right there with Dukes (behind only Belliard and Flores), and he's picked up 7 SB with 2 CS.  Yeah, I know--fluke, he can't keep it up. Whatever--his 6 HR are tied with Dukes and three times as many as WMP, despite fewer AB than either!  Willie is here to play, you best believe.

Who stinks?

Well, yeah, that's basically "everyone else."

Ryan Langerhans' 89 OPS+ (267/353/356) is actually higher than that other Ryan's 87 (257/291/427 before he went on the DL).  Sure, Zimmy was showing some power (Belliard only recently passed him as team leader in HR), but he has The Guz' patience, without the contact!  HANDS may not be hitting that much, either, but he can take a walk.

Lastings Milledge is a work in progress with a 79 OPS+ (245/312/368, including a team-leading 9 HBP). He's still managing to be 3rd in HR on the team, though that may be partly a function of him having second most AB this season of any Nat (behind only The Guz).  Of course, he leads the team in both SB (13) and CS (4), not to mention GDP (13--FLoP is close behind with 12. PLoD only has 8, but they always seem to come with the bases loaded and one out in close games).

Austin Kearns is on the long road back to batting respectability, and he's already improved to a 75 OPS+ and a 221/325/332 line (he was flirting with Mendoza/WMP numbers when he went on the DL).  The patience is there, and now the bone chips aren't there, so we can hope that the contact and power will come back.

Kory Casto is well below average, with a 62 OPS+ and 203/298/311 line. But there's still some promise: someone who came up in the Nats/Expos organization with an 095 isolated patience? Woo-hoo! He's also improved a lot since his 2007 audition, almost doubling all his batting numbers.

Everyone else--PLoD, Snowy, Orr, Boone, FLoP--they're all somewhere back in the sub-100-OPS+ weeds.

Yeah, but overall?

Overall, the team OPS+ is 84 (243/317/364)--just between Zimmy and Lasto.  Make of that what you will.  Meanwhile, we're last in the NL in hits (despite The Guz) and AVG, but lead the NL in HBP...