Federal Baseball goes to WAR! (A FederalBaseball.com community project)

by Doghouse on Feb 7, 2009 5:48 PM EST

The stat-heads over at Beyond the Boxscore (SBN's sabermetrics blog) are embarking on an endeavor to project out the season for all 30 MLB teams. They've asked each team's fan community to come up with a projection, and they'll eventually put them all together and wacky fun will ensue. Anyhow, Ed asked me to "volunteer" to oversee a Federal Baseball effort to come up with a Nats projection--that's where you come in. Find out how to help us figure out the 2009 Nats' Wins Above Replacement (WAR) after the jump! (Did I use the possessive apostrophe correctly, Ed? Remember, I'm a numbers guy.)

So, here's the deal. The guys at BtB have developed a spreadsheet. You put in a list of players and how well you think they'll play, and it spits out how many Wins Above Replacement value (WAR) your team will have (that is, how much better would your team be than a roster of 25 Brad Wilkersons, or whatever his equivalent is at each position).

You job is to help me predict who's playing what position, how many PA they'll have (or how many IP for pitchers) and how well they'll do (OBP and SLG for position players, plus adjustements for fielding and baserunning; ERA and rotation spot/role for pitchers). We'll enter them in the on-line master spreadsheet (and by "we" I mean "me") where everyone can look at the numbers for debate, and other teams can look on our stats and despair (possibly the other way around).

Consider this your call to arms! (And stats!) What do you think the lineup and rotation are going to be? What's Willie Harris' OPS going to be next year, really? Will "Cool Hand" Lannan pitch 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA? Between now and the start of the season, I'll be bugging you to make predictions so we can put the "wisdom of the crowd" into our projection. I'll probably have something up in the next day or two that we can start spitballing over, but it'll be open to change as people make their arguments.

Keep in mind I'm open to suggestions on how to do the projections, as well as what the projections should be. There are a number of systems that project future performance. So far, I've looked at Marcels (which covers batting) and CHONE (which covers batting, fielding, and pitching). I figure what I'll do to create our projection is take some sort of weighted average of those projections with the vastly-superior wisdom from the Nats fans here.

To get the ball rolling, what do you think our starting lineup should be? Here's what I'm calling:

Guuuuuzman (SS)
AndyHands (2B)
Zim! (3B)
NJ (1B)
SooperDooks (CF)
Hammer (LF)
AK (RF)
Flores (C)
Pitcher

PH: Young (also 1B), Milledge (also CF/RF), Belliard (also 2B), "General" Gonzalez (also SS), Harris (also 2B/SS/3B/LF/CF)

(Keep in mind the order isn't important, but who do you think the starters will be? Who do you think will be backing up at each position? Who'll get the most PH chances? If we don't come to a consensus, we can always split PA among players.)

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Comments

1. Hernandez
2. Guzman
3. Zimmerman
4. Johnson
5. Willingham
6. Dukes
7. Milledge
8. Flores
9 Pitcher

I’m a nationals season ticket holder and even I think this is the going to be the worst season ever.

by patches51085 on Jan 16, 2009 8:20 PM EST reply actions

Enough with the negative waves Moriarty!

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

1. Hernandez (2b)
2. Guzman (ss)
3. Zimmerman (3b)
4. Johnson (1b)
5. Willingham (rf)
6. Dukes (cf)
7. Milledge (lf)
8. Flores ©
9 Pitcher

I left kearns our because he simply cannot hit.

by patches51085 on Jan 16, 2009 8:27 PM EST reply actions

I have season tix, too...

…and I was not at all surprised at how easily we were able to move our seats to a better section in the same price range after 08. I’m an optimist—I think last year was the low point, and this year will only be bad instead of completely awful.

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 16, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions

No way we’re worse this season than last season. Now, will we win the NL East? Doubt it. But I’m looking for improvement, not miracles.

1. Harris (cf)
2. Guzman (ss)
3. Zim (3b)
4. Johnson (1b)
5. Willingham (rf)
6. Milledge (lf)
7. Hernandez (2b)
8. Flores ©
9. Pitcher

by kungpow12 on Jan 16, 2009 9:12 PM EST reply actions

Wanna compete?

Get some damned pitching! I don’t mean to be rude, but I’m a fan of a team that DID NOT make the post season because of one thing and one thing alone: PITCHING generally, RELIEF PITCHING specifically. How did Philly dominate in the playoffs? SP Cole Hamels & RP Brad Lidge – Nuff said.

The Nats have capable hitting. (I just believe that the majority of them will improve.) If the Nats had above average pitching they could definitely contend in the NL East for a wild card. (I know how outlandish this sounds.)

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII agree

"I'm an escaped car thief. I broke out of prison to see the Cubs in the World Series." - James Belushi in Taking Care of Business (1990)

by brownbuddha on Jan 17, 2009 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

Good morning buddha

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions

Starting Lineup...

1. The Guzzzzz – SS
2. Super Dukes – CF
3. THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! – 3B
4. Nick Johnson – 1B
5. The Hammer – LF
6. Lasto – RF
7. Jesus Flores – C
8. Anderson Hernandez – 2B

Willie Harris – backing up each OF position. Kearns splitting time in right w/ Lasto. Wil Nieves backing up Flores.

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 1:31 AM EST reply actions

DY/Casto backing up at first depending upon if D. Young can come back...

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions

Sing it with me now..."WAR! What is it good for, absolutely nothin! Huah!" - Edwin Starr

In all seriousness. I am going to have to force myself to learn this and try to contribute. I’ll work on it later today. Do I get my official WAR membership card once I’m complete?

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 9:15 AM EST reply actions

I'm not sure about membership cards...

…but there may be a free beer or two involved at select home games. Remember, Nats fans, I’m here to navigate the math for you if you don’t want to get into it too deeply. You can phrase your projections at any level of detail from “career season!” to “based on my non-linear weighted average of CHONE, PECOTA, Marcels, and the Dow Jones, I’m calling 531.3 PA with a weighted OBA of 0.351 and an extra 1.324 win shares from fielding and baserunning.” My job is to ~~ignore~~ add up your inputs (in whatever form) to build the Federal Baseball consensus on what the Nats will do in 2009.

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

Good lord

You might need a beer or two after it’s all said and done.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks for participating, folks!

Some other teams are starting with CHONE projections, then debating which ones should be adjusted up or down. Some are doing their own PA projections by having readers post the % of each position’s PAs that will go to each player

For example:
C
Bob 70%
Steve 25%
Prospect 5%

Feel free to go your own way. Within the next week I’ll organize a thread over at BtB for all the volunteers who are taking charge of their team to help you all share ideas with each other.

And you can make changes all the way up until Opening Day.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions

Sky brings up a good point about playing time...

There’s pretty much a consensus on the IF, at least: NJ/AndyHands/Zimmy/GUUUUUZ around the horn with Jesus behind the dish. Less agreement about the OF so far, but we can always split up the playing time. Here’s the next challenge: how much time do you think each player gets at each position? For instance, right now I have Dukes and Kearns each taking about 2/3 of the time in CF/RF, with Lasto taking the rest (since I don’t know who’ll be the “real” starter, I just split it up among them). I’ve also got NJ taking about 1/2 the time at 1B, because… well… history (Dmeat and Casto split the rest).

So, what do you think? Who’ll be Ripken this season? Who’ll be, uh… any of the 2008 Nats?

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

Also, w/the large number of free agents remaining out there

there’s no telling how we might have to adjust our roster. The Nationals may actually acquire someone!
(Did I write that out loud?)

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions

No you were just thinking it, and if you were thinking Dunn, Lou???

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

Here goes...

Lineup (Subject to change once Johnson gets injured)
1. Anderson Hernandez (2B)
2. Cristian Guzman (SS)
3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
4. Nick Johnson (1B)
5. Elijah Dukes (CF)
6. Josh Willingham (LF)
7. Lastings Milledge (RF)
8. Jesus Flores ©

Playing Time
C- Flores (70), Nieves (30)
1B- Johnson (40), Young (20), Willingham (25), Belliard (10), Other (5)
2B- Hernandez (45), Belliard (45), Harris (10)
SS- Guzman (85), Gonzalez (15)
3B- Zimmerman (85), Harris (10), Belliard (5)
RF- Milledge (55), Kearns (45)
CF- Dukes (70), Harris (15), Other (15)
LF- Willingham (55), Harris (20), Milledge (15), Other (10)

Others include the likes of Pete Orr, Roger Bernadina, Wily Mo Pena, Kory Casto, etc. Basically replacement level players.

by Willl on Jan 17, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks, Willl, great stuff!

(Subject to change once Johnson gets injured)

Oh, you just had to put that in there… (*SIGH*)

Giving The Hammer some time at 1B made me look up whether he’s played there: 3 innings in 2006! Interestingly, he’s caught 15 games with the Marlins (68 innings total, a few games a year in 2004-2006… did the Fish have trouble with catchers getting hurt?).

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Hammer, Dukes and Lasto...

Nice, Willll…And the Hammer at first once Johnson gets injured…

I’ll get my percentages up soon, right now it’s Hockey Night in Canada…

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

It is surprising....

Considering all the talk of playing WIllingham at first, he’s only played 3 innings there in the majors. Willingham actually came up through the minors as a catcher. Interestingly, between 2002 and 2005, he played 180 games at catcher, 67 games at 1B, 30 at 3B and just 24 games in the outfield. So even though he hasn’t played 1B regularly since 2004, I think he could handle 30 games at first.

by Willl on Jan 18, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

The "Lou's" projection

Starting on left, backup(s) on right.

1. Milledge (CF)…………….Dukes
2. Dukes (RF)……………….Kearns, Milledge
3. Willingham (LF)…………Dukes, Mo Pena
4. Zimmerman (3B)……….Gonzalez
5. Johnson (1B)…………….Belliard
6. Guzman (SS)……………Gonzalez
7. Hernandez (2B)…………Harris
8. Flores ( C )……………….Nieves
9. Pitcher

I hope I didn’t screw this up.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions

Looks good, Lou.

But who’s this “Moe Pena” character. Is he on our team?

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

I felt a disturbance in the force as soon as I typed in his name.

I took a look at MLB.com’s depth chart (when establishing my lineup) and it says that Wily Modesto Pena is still part of the squad. The chart also says it was updated as of 17 January. Am I missing something?

Source: http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=was

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Are you sure you're not confusing him with Ryan Church? He's a Met now.

I kid, of course, but I’ll be surprised to see WMP in the mix on Opening Day. Who knows, though, maybe he’ll surprise us all with his repaired labrum in Spring Training and show the power he supposed to have all along (assuming the bad shoulder was also the reason he couldn’t hit a curve). Heaven knows we can use more bodies in the OF…

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

Some of us who had to watch WMP "struggle"...

…have chosen to forget he’s still on the roster.

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

I've tried to consult my crystal ball on the matter

but all I see is Elijah Dukes and Barrack Obama bumping fist on the mound during the opening toss of the season.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

You think Obama is a power pitcher or a control guy?

Either way, I’m sure he’ll have a change we can believe in, har, har!

"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jan 17, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

:-) That's actually a damn good/funny question.

“W” was a power pitcher, but his stuff was all over the place – no control.

Obama is a more of a control guy with mad upside who is going to study future batters. He’s more inclined to work hand in hand with a catcher who is calling a good game.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

W wouldn't let Lo Duca catch him...

At least he was….(oh forget it!)

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 17, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions

Didn't W do some commentary w/Joe Morgan one night in the booth on ESPN?

If I’m not mistaken, that was a National’s game right? As I remember it he seemed to enjoy talking baseball, however, he didn’t seem to be anxious to really open up.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 17, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions