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Addressing the Nationals Offseason Transactions

Top Two Starting Pitchers to Target:

John Lackey (Type A Free Agent) - Lackey is a big game pitcher, and had yet another effective postseason with the Angels (2.29 ERA, 1-1 W/L).  Lackey is a Type A Free Agent, meaning the Angels will be compensated with 2 draft selections should he sign with another club (the Nats second rounder and compensatory selection).  The big righty has 102 career wins, with a 3.81 career ERA; most importantly he's only allowed 20+ HRs in a season once in the previous 5 seasons.  Lackey doesn't walk a lot of hitters, but his career SO/BB ratio is a shade under 3:1 for his career (2.7:1).  Putting Lackey in a rotation with Lannan, Zimmermann, Strasburg and J.D. Martin certainly wouldn't be a bad addition.  He'd certainly have the veteran experience and big game ability to be the team's ace.

Jason Marquis (Type B Free Agent) - Marquis isn't quite the pitcher Lackey is; The former Brave walks a lot of batters and struggles with his SO:BB ratio (1.5:1 for his career).  Marquis also gives up a lot of home runs historically; however, last season he allowed just 15 while playing with the Rockies (and with the Cubs in 2008 he allowed just 15 as well).  He's started in 30+ games the past 5 of 6 seasons and has topped 200+ innings 3 times in his career.  With his improved ability to keep the ball in the yard, Marquis would make a fairly solid middle of the rotation addition to the Nats staff.  The Rockies will be compensated with a draft selection should Marquis sign with another club, due to his Type B Free Agent tag. 

Top Two Relief Pitchers to Target:

Mike Gonzalez (Type A Free Agent) - Gonzalez was the best part of the Braves bullpen, being reliable and durable pitching in 80 contests in 2009.  Being a Type A Free Agent (along with Braves closer Rafael Soriano) make it a possibility that Gonzalez could be wearing new colours in 2010.  The Nationals need a solid, reliable arm in the bullpen (as we all know), and making Gonzalez the set up man would make the 7th or 8th inning a little more relaxing for fans.  Gonzalez also makes a good closer if pressed into duties, but thrives as the set up man.  Allowing just 22 HRs in his career is impressive, and Gonzalez can mow down hitters, striking out 90 in 74.1 innings last season.  Did I mention he's a lefty? 

Bob Howry (Type B Free Agent) - Howry is a grizzled veteran that would add a great presence to our bullpen.  He's pitched in 60+ games the previous 5 seasons (4 were 70+ game seasons).   Howry allows the long ball on occasion, despite holding opponents to 5 in 2009.  His 23 walks in 2009 were the most he's had in a year since 2002, and our bullpen definitely needs someone to keep runners off the base paths.  Howry doesn't strike out a lot of batters, but with his low walk totals he's an effective "ball-in-play" pitcher recording outs. 

The problem with my list:

I've listed Type A and B free agents, meaning these options may not exist should these players accept arbitration from their current clubs.  Further complicating matters is the fact that these players may have absolutely no interest in joining a 103-loss ball club.  However, since the Nationals own a top 15 draft selection, they will only have to yeild a second round choice to the team they sign a Type A free agent from.  In this case, I think signing Mike Gonzalez over John Lackey would be the better choice and targeting Marquis to anchor the middle of rotation instead.  It's fairly unlikely that the Nationals will sign any of these players on the list, but I can dream, can't I? 

Last but not least, Where to trade the Big-Walkie:

Baltimore - How about Brad Bergeson and Ty Wigginton for Adam Dunn?  If the Orioles would part with Michael Aubrey (instead of Wiggy), I say find a way to get the deal done.  It's not likely that the Orioles would part with Bergeson, but what if we packaged Smartie in the deal with Dunn?  The Orioles would have a solidl lineup with Roberts, Markakis, Mora and Dunn in the middle of the order and would receive a fairly promising Martis to help Guthrie out in an otherwise terrible rotation.  So what do you say Baltimore Adam Dunn and Shairon Martis for Michael Aubrey and Brad Bergeson?   

Oakland - Remember the splash Oakland made acquring Holliday last offseason?  Why not make another by trading for Adam Dunn?  The Athletics would certainly be able to land some prospects at the deadline for Dunn (like they did Holliday).  I propose Adam Dunn and Shairon Martis for Brett Anderson, Craig Beslow and Daric Barton.  The Nationals would get a solid young arm in Anderson, a pretty good relief man in Beslow and a project at 1B with Barton.  Further more, the move would hardly deplete the Athletics rotation of young arms (Braden, Cahill, Gonzalez).  While the trade is not likely, it's less of a rip-off than the Baltimore trade I've proposed.

Do I get the job as Nationals GM?  Discuss what you think the Nationals should do this offseason. 

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I certainly agree that there's some money to spend, but disagree on some of the allocation

It’s not that you’re targeting pitching that I’d disagree with, but the particular pitchers.

- Lackey wouldn’t be a horrible guy to go after, though I have a feeling he’ll end up signing with one of the big boys (read: ready-made contender with a history of spending like a big-market club).

- Whoever goes out and spends the money on Marquis this offseason is going to regret it, so I certainly hope it won’t be the Nationals. He’s a league-average (possibly being a bit kind) starter coming off of a career year (well… first half, really) who will almost certainly command more money than he’s worth because of that. He’s got poor power peripherals and would be pitching in front of a club that remains below average defensively with a few notable exceptions (obviously Zimm and Morgan… Zimm would be the more important of the two, as Marquis is at his best when he’s throwing a lot of groundballs). The only notable thing that’s really in his favor is that every major league team he’s ever played for has gone to the playoffs (literally… the Braves [2000-03], the Cardinals [2004-06], the Cubs [2007-08], and the Rockies 2009). Almost as notable is the fact that Marquis pitched poorly enough in 2006 and 2007 to be left off the playoff roster and poorly enough in 2008 and the second half of 2009 so that he was placed in the bullpen for the playoffs. He’s just not really that good, but had his best half of baseball ever to earn a spot on the All-Star team (again, pitched so poorly down the stretch that he wasn’t even in Colorado’s playoff rotation). Yes…. he’s my main problem.

- With the exception of the fact that he is plagued by the base on balls (which means he’d fit right in, right?), I actually like Gonzalez quite a bit. He could be a real solid pickup this offseason, as the team (all due respect to “If it’s not Scottish, it’s crap!”) could use someone capable of taking over the closing duties in a big way. Gonzalez has lost the closing duties to Rafael Soriano in each of the past two seasons, but it was as much a product of Soriano being right-handed as anything else. Gonzalez is a proven commodity who may actually see his salary demands drop a bit because of the past two seasons, and that is a great thing for a team like the Nats to try and take advantage of.

- I’d have liked to see them sign a guy like Howry three or four years ago. He’d be a solid depth guy who could possibly handle some setup duties. He’s 36 and, though he bounced back from an awful 2008 a bit, definitely showing signs of decline.

Regarding the trades… Bergesen had a real nice big league debut, but I’m not enamored with his minor league peripherals. Another pitcher who looks kind of weak from a power prospective (poor K rate, though he masks it with a great walk rate). Keeps it on the ground, at least. Pretty decent showing as a 27-year-old rookie by Michael Aubrey…. Of course, the words 27-year-old rookie stand out like a sore thumb here. I wouldn’t find Wigginton that interesting, but I’d probably find him more interesting than Aubrey. I wouldn’t find the deal as a whole remotely interesting for the Nats, though, and feel they could do quite a bit better for Dunn (without throwing Martis in).

- Oakland: Not this much better, though. I view Bergesen as a Grade C pitching prospect. I like his potential to be a back-end starter who could surprise with a couple more seasons like he did in 2009. Anderson is a Grade A pitching prospect who is probably going to (and this year certainly is indicative of this possibility) make a run at a Cy Young or two (not saying he’ll win it, but at least be in the conversation a few times in his career). Comparing him and Bergesen is like comparing apples to oranges, despite the fact that Bergesen’s ERA on the year was better.

FIP: Anderson (3.69), Bergesen (4.10)
K/9: Anderson (7.70), Bergesen (4.49)
BB/9: Anderson (2.31), Bergesen (2.34)
K/BB: Anderson (3.33), Bergesen (2.03)
BABIP: Anderson (.317), Bergesen (.289)

Perhaps most importantly, Anderson is 21 years-old, while Bergesen is 24. There’s quite a bit more upside there. The only reason that I bring up BABIP is to point out that Anderson was significantly better than Bergesen in pretty much everything but HR/9 despite being a bit unlucky with the defense behind him. BABIP should normalize in the .290-.295 range.

I’m not a big believer in Barton at this point, and I don’t think that Oakland would have any concerns about moving him, particularly with Brett Wallace and Chris Carter in house. I can’t say much about Craig Breslow outside of the fact that he makes me shrug. Still, if I’m Billy Beane, as much as I love Adam Dunn, I’m not trading a cost-controlled 21-year-old who already looked like an ace in the second half of his rookie season for him straight up.

Nothing personal, but I wouldn’t replace Rizzo with you. Nice to see someone post their thoughts about the upcoming offseason, though. Again, like where your head’s at, but I just disagree with the execution of the ideas.

by bluelineswinger on Oct 26, 2009 10:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think I agree for the most part

I was kind of hoping someone would come in here and post a better list of options in the FA market. Of the list I was viewing, there wasn’t a whole lot of good relief arms available, I felt Howry and Gonzo were the best available.

As for the starting pitchers, ditto. When Jason Marquis is the second best FA pitcher on the market, I think there’s a watered down field to choose from. But Marquis could fit nicely in the back end of the rotation and perhaps thrive in the relative seclusion of pitching for the Nats.

by Andrew Davidson on Oct 27, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did my best

Just did a little write-up of my own. I had Lackey as my #2 SP available, but part of that is because I believe that they have a significantly better shot at my #1 (Rich Harden). There are actually quite a few risk/reward options out there that figure to come a little cheaper than they should, to be honest. Guys like Harden, Bedard, Ben Sheets (though he seems handcuffed to Texas), Brett Myers, and Brad Penny would all fit that mold in my eyes.

The guys I’d probably try to avoid (though they were included in my top ten because the pitching market looks a bit weak this offseason) would be the guys coming off career years… predominantly Marquis (living in St. Louis, I’ve seen him pitch quite a bit, and have been impressed by very little) and Pineiro (another guy I’ve seen pitch quite a bit living in St. Louis. I feel he’s better than Marquis, but feel that someone’s going to overpay him based on his performance in 2009… a Nats fan, I’d prefer it wasn’t us).

Based on an overall body of work, I’d have to say that Jose Valverde figures to be the clear top option at closer, though I feel that whichever closer the Braves don’t manage to retain (Gonzalez or Soriano) are better options both financially and (in Soriano’s case, at least) from a talent perspective. Of the non-closers, Betancourt is far and away the best option available in my eyes, though I feel there’s an excellent chance that whoever signs him will be after him to take over the ninth for them.

Also, I feel that it’s important not to completely discount Billy Wagner, who was fantastic upon his return last season, and actually made a point of refusing to accept his no-trade clause unless the Red Sox would agree to forego his option. Why? He wants to close, and that’s not going to happen in Boston.

Sorry for shredding the trade ideas. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Bergesen’s all that great, and I don’t think Aubrey (or Wigginton) would be a very worthwhile pickup. Simply put, they’d have to do better for Dunn. As for the other one, particularly with a constantly cash-strapped organization like the A’s, I could probably only name about 20 players in baseball that Beane would trade Anderson straight up for, and Dunn wouldn’t be one of them.

by bluelineswinger on Oct 27, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah Roscoe

You are referring to Pan A. We’re on Plan F at least now and Im expecting the splashing of some cash this offseason. They cant let this continue anymore.

Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."

by Mezza on Oct 27, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly, no free agents will sign with the Nats unless it’s the only half decent offer….like Dunn.

Our FO’s said that they’ll have to build with trades.

I’d like to have Lackey but there’s no way in hell he’d sign with the Nats.

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 26, 2009 10:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

if you want to trade adam dunn

you should be looking for a whole lot more than that.

Particulary if you want to deal him to an AL team, he has no downside there…. why would you give him away so cheap?

if dunn goes(which i would be against, for the record) it would have to be for an established see also: accomplished pitcher and perhaps a hitting prospect….

and you certainly wouldnt put anyoneone else in along with him.

by martins on Oct 27, 2009 2:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope the Nats keep done.

If you are looking to trade, trade willingham after he had a decent season last year. with his injury history, and streakiness, his trade value may never be higher. He won’t be getting any younger….

getting rid of your best hitter would be a tough pill for nats fans to swallow….

by VA SLIM on Oct 27, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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