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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' 2010 Infield.

Can Adam Dunn get back up to the 40 HR plateau? Will Ryan Zimmerman hit more than last-year's career high 33 HR's? If Cristian Guzman's going to be at short or second, what can DC fans expect from the soon-to-be 32-year-old infielder? With the help of the Hitter Projections contained in the soon-to-be-published twenty-ten edition of The Bill James Handbook 2010, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what Nationals fans can expect from the Nationals' infield, which, barring the acquisition of another infielder, will most likely be composed of Ryan Zimmerman at third, Ian Desmond at short, Cristian Guzman at second and Adam Dunn at first base, though some argue that Desmond's not ready to play everday. (ed. note - "Bill James has Desmond playing in 145 games...Thanks to Mr. James and the book's publisher, Acta Sports, for making a preview of the Pitcher and Hitter Projections available.")

DC Infield Hitter Projections...After The Jump...

(ed. note - "Check out the Projections for the Nationals' 2010 Outfield HERE.")

Star-divide

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' Infield: 

Ryan Zimmerman - 3B: 

Zimmerman, Ryan G AB H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP  SLG
'09 Projections 145 576 167 42 22 87 .290 .351 .484
'09 Stats 157 610 178 37 33 106 .292 .364  .525
2010 Projections 149 593 171 42 28 98 .286 .358 .511

 

Ian Desmond - SS:

Desmond, Ian G AB H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP  SLG
'09 Projections --  -- --  --  --  --   --    --   --
'09 Stats 21 82 23  7  4 12 .280 .318 .561
2010 Projections 145 518 146 33 13 52 .282 .336 .432

 

Cristian Guzman - 2B:

Guzman, Cristian G AB H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP  SLG
'09 Projections 137 496 145 26  7  45 .292 .329 .407
'09 Stats 135 531 151 24  6  52 .284 .306 .390
2010 Projections 136 550 155 26  7  49 .282 .313 .365

 

Adam Dunn - 1B:

Dunn, Adam G AB H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP  SLG
'09 Projections 159 562 137 30 42 103 .246 .386 .527
'09 Stats 159 546 146 29 38 105 .267 .398 .529
2010 Projections 159 562 141 30 40 103 .251 .389 .518

 

Jesus Flores - C:

Flores, Jesus G AB H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP  SLG
'09 Projections 135 436 109 26 12  81 .250 .304 .397
'09 Stats 29 93  28  3  4  15 .301 .371 .505
2010 Projections 116 431 114 22 13 75 .265 .323 .415

 

• Notes on the #'s, ?'s Raised:

-- MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote recently, in an article entitled, "Nats Inbox: What's in store for Storen", that, "...there is a question about [Ian Desmond's] defense. He made over 30 errors this past season," (34 total between Harrisburg, Syracuse and DC, I checked) and as a result, "...some members of the organization have some doubts," about whether Desmond is ready for an everyday role in the majors. If, as Mr. James predicts, Desmond's able to hit 33 doubles and 13 HR's with a .282 AVG, can the errors be overlooked? Or do the Nationals need to bring in a veteran infielder? 

-- Aside from effect Adam Dunn had on the offense with his own contributions, can we agree that he clearly had an effect on the pitches Ryan Zimmerman saw this season? To what else would you attribute Zimmerman's increased offensive output? Is it just Zimmerman maturing and improving at the plate? When did you realize Dunn wouldn't hit 40 HR's? Will he get back there next year? 

-- Are you ready for another 115-130 singles by Cristian Guzman? I know a lot of people are tired of his empty average and slow feet, but is there any way to move his $8M dollar contract? 

-- 116 games for Jesus Flores? Let's hope so...Who'll be backing Flores up in 2010? 

- Bill James' Projections

Wil Nieves:

- '09 Stats - 72 G, 58 for 224, .259 AVG, 6 2B, 1 HR, 26 RBI's, .313 OBP, .299 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 74 G, 47 for 187, .251 AVG, 8 2B, 2 HR, 17 RBI's, .293 OBP, .337 SLG. 

Josh Bard

- '09 Stats - 90 G, 63 for 274, .230 AVG, 18 2B, 6 HR's, 31 RBI's, .293 OBP, .361 SLG. 

- 2010 Projections - 84 G, 56 for 232, .241 AVG, 15 2B, 4 HR's, 27 RBI's, .313 OBP, .358 SLG. 

-- With Flores back in the lineup, (batting sixth?), behind, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes, three to six, Nyjer Morgan and Cristian Guzman one and two, and either Ian Desmond, (Guzman?) or another infielder in the eight spot, do the Nationals stand a chance in the NL East in 2010? 

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You go, Ed.

The Nats just got mentioned by Joe Buck. Only team to shut the Yankees out in the Stadium this season. Will Clifford Lee get the second?

by RoscoeNats on Oct 28, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions  

"What the Licey is not very offensive? One moment, please...". -Licey.com

Ian Desmond and Wilkin Ramirez had homered and the Licey Tigers beat the Bulls 5-2.”

  “The victory went to Sammy Gervacio (1-0) to launch an entry in the relief role and Onelio Perez got the rescue with an episode without accepting runs.” (ed. 2 of 8 pitchers used)

 Desmond went 2-4, 3 RBIs with the 2-run homer, a K and now batting .227

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 28, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Where are you, Elijah Dukes?

Willy Aybar finally joined the Licey Tigers.

“Emilio Bonifacio will play for Licey from November 7 as we talked,” said Ravelo.

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 28, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where in the world is Elijah Dukes?

I’m currently searching around the winter leagues for any other DC prospects playing this winter…

Hey Roscoe, where’d you find the link that had prospects listed by organization?

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Oct 28, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Organizational Statistics: Winter Leagues
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=was

Winter Leagues: Statistics
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 28, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I want to see him get in the lineup and help Licey's last-in-league team batting.

How they’re hanging around first place is…….well, it’s their pitching…

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dukes is leaving the states to go down there Nov. 1

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Oct 29, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice. Thanks for the info...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Oct 29, 2009 4:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Great news, Dave!!!......thanks for that...

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, cd3K.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Oct 29, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

No problem......it's the only place to keep up with some guy named Andrew Kown

The Nats’ sole representative in the Liga Mexicana del Pacifico for the Yaquis de Obregon…..

   Go Yaqs!!!

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I forgot about Ricardo Nanita too, he was one of my favorites from last winner...

Got beat by Desmond today though…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Oct 29, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm more entertained by the translations, actually.......

“a rescue with an episode without accepting runs.”

That closer leads the league in RWEWOARs……

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but Nanita's RWEWOAR of +2.5 is nowhere near as valuable as...

Desmonds +4.7 RWEWOAR…and the stat makes clear the importance of players like Desmond…

(shh, folks will think we created a new stat)….

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Oct 29, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

all I can say is...

lol

Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."

by Mezza on Oct 29, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

MOAR WOARS!!!!

and Rescues!!!

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Desmond's not exactly lighting up the DWL with his bat, so too early to tell if he can displace anyone yet...

   I don’t think Guz will ever “accept” playing anywhere but SS, so if he doesn’t launch a peppery entry at 2B, he may have to make his space where Bluegrass used to sit.

Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."

by cat daddy3000 on Oct 29, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Desmond can improve - Guzman not so much

Desmond can improve his defense (THOUSAND FUNGO DRILL!) but Guzman is on the decline side of his career and isn’t going to get better at the plate. Bring up Orr and Bynum to play second, and get rid of Guzman, even if we have to eat part of his salary. He was great with the Twins, but that was a long time ago. :(

by Wombat-socho on Nov 8, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

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