who were the best NATs this season statistically
by PhDBrian on Oct 8, 2009 12:58 PM EDT
66 comments
Here are the season ending stats for the current NATS. Almost none of these stats samples are large enough to be a true representation of a players abilities (fielding needs 3 seasons), but here they are anyway. I deleted, in most cases, NATS we traded because all of them got better away from us
Here are the WARs for the Nats at season end. I only include guys still with the team:
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Based on these season ending stats
I am all for playing Desmond at SS next season. Trying Guzman and second might be worthwhile, but we may perhaps benefit from picking up a new secondbaseman.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 5, 2009 1:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont need stats to tell me that Brian!
But it’s nice to know the stats back us up that Desmond is a genuis! :)
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 5, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate to say this, Mezza, but...
…Desmond’s great numbers come from only 82 PA. I’m a FoD&D, but we can’t say anything based on that. I’m all for Desmond at SS anyway, of course—at least over Guz.
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 5, 2009 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff
Be interesting to see what WAR for Dunn is when you take out his performances at LF/RF – he is far better as a 1B and commited less errors.
Equally Desmond could be higher if we ‘discard’ the silly positional changes.
I was happy to see the top 3…they have been our best batters/fielders. Im surprised Harris is up there – maybe a quiet achiever…he just hasnt impressed me this year (maybe its coming off a ridiculously good year?). Equally, Dukes suffered and should be higher next year.
The defensive side is staggering… I think it shows how bad a year we were… I count only TWO of our everyday players in positive figures. Memo to Rizzo…this crap has to change.
hehe – as for Padilla – he didnt get much time and just a pinch hitter…so I wasnt expecting him to light it up. But Ill still argue that he is more of a positive than Kearns (and that includes his salary vs Kearnsian $8m). You need to find a stat that takes wages into account. :)
Thanks for the writeup – good read.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 5, 2009 1:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
TAWHs numbers
come from being much harder than average to get out, very good base stealing ratio, Intelligent baserunning, and Gold glove defense when he plays LF. His WAR is brought down by his play at second and CF. Had he played only in LF, then his WAR would have been much higher. But a WAR of 1.1 is nothing special. It is fairly solid off the bench though.
As for DUNN, this season he played first base better, but not much. He is the worst first basemen in the game by a fairly huge margin. Among guys with 400 or more innings in 2009 at first here are the bottom three at UZR/150: Dunn -19.8, Giambi -12.1, Billy Butler -5.3. The top guy is Ishikawa of the Giants with +13.5 which is down right amazing. Next two best are Kotchman at 7.5 and Youkilis at 7.1. So if he played full time firstbase I do not think his WAR would improve greatly. He has played first part of every season since 2001 (1431 innings), so it is unlikely he will get much better at it. By the way, for his career he is a better lf than 1b.
lastly, I was poking fun about you and Padilla. I liked the story as well and wanted him to succeed. He just didn’t.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 5, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another comment
Maybe J MAX should start in RF next season. His sample space is obviously small, but look at those numbers thus far….. He is beginning to look like the second coming of Randy Winn (best defensive RF of the last decade). Plus, he wont get picked off like Dukes.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 5, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
barring trade, i think the most interesting position battle in the spring will be right field.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at Nats News Network on Oct 8, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So... J-Max at the end of this season looks like Dukes at the end of last season?
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 8, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
better
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 8, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, about the same...
2008 Dukes: 264/386/478, 125 OPS+, 11.6 UZR/150
2009 J-Max: 247/343/449, 107 OPS, +25.9 UZR/150
Dukes was better with the bat, J-Max is better with the glove. Both had weak early-season appearances, with Dukes battling injuries and J-Max getting sent down. Dukes’ numbers are a bit sturdier, given he had about 3x the PA/Innings in 2008 as J-Max did in 2009. J-Max’s playing time is a bit limited for assuming he’s almost as good a fielder as Nyjer Morgan, too. No real book on J-Max yet, just like with Dukes in 2008. It will be interesting to see what happens next year in RF.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 8, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that the only position battle, really?
If Hammer’s still here, he’s in left, Who’s going to take NM out of CF? Zim’s got 3rd, Dunn, 1st, Desi & Guz up the middle or a FA signing…If Flores is healthy, he’s catching…will the team be any different next year?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Oct 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching is the nexus of all evil for the Nats...
I say get two middle of the roaders, Lannon, Olsen and one of the kids. Throw the reast of the kids down in AAA and Strasburg in A. Let things work themselves out till June. And start the selling of old folks and the bringing of the young. The Nats will look to get three arms for the bullpen and of the position players I’m not worried if they’re going in house or to the outhouse. It’ll all work out. Now those two middle of the roaders that’s the thing to worry about, eh.
by Berndaddy on Oct 8, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we're further along than we were last year with the rotation
Lannan and 2 free agents would be a good nexus – but I still think that Stammen and Martin have shown they can pitch quality innings. Detwiler also finished the season strongly. All 3 – if they continue to improve – could have break out years next year and be solid starters (all 3, in relaity wont be 15 game winners…but all 3 could be 10 game winners with decent defense and run support).
Olsen is likely to be non-tendered. Stras is a wait and see… im hoping he spends a half year in the minors.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 8, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Better defense will make all those guys better starters, so I'd prefer they not get blocked by some expensive injured FA or old innings eater...
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 8, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 9, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lackey wants $82.5mil for 5 years...... I don't think that's in The Plan 6.0
and I hope not…
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when he realises no one will pay that...
we might be ok. Having said that – I think there is a real problem with fans wanting the FO to pay big bucks for FA’s…and the issue of…well, paying big bucks for guys who wont make a huge difference. We cant have it both ways.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 9, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rizzo wants one, but I'm afraid of someone like Derek Lowe showing up....
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea Lowe needs a dominating infield to be good
that we do not have
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 12, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think it's the only battle
but it will be interesting.
as for everyone clamoring for signing a couple of free agent pitchers, i’m still waiting for anyone to convince me that the Nats can go out and sign Randy Wolf and Jon Garland, or reasonable facsimiles thereof, and be any more competitive than they were this year.
the Nats will get significantly better when they are better as a team picking up the ball. this can best be accomplished by training or obtaining AT LEAST league average SS and 2B.
Guz is neither of those players.
while they’re at it, they need to take some of those #4-5 starter guys and make quality relievers (al a Clippard) out of them, instead of buying free agent relievers, which may or may not work (ask Orioles fans about FA contracts for Jamie Walker and Danys Baez).
gets off soap box
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at Nats News Network on Oct 8, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'll get no argument from me about getting rid of Guz
Defense up the guts has got to be better. I think Desmond wont be great at the start of his career defensively, but will improve as he goes. A gun defensive 2B is a must…I dont care what he hits.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 8, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with there, Dave, that someone else's ace isn't going to fair that much better with the status quo behind them.
It’s my broken record, but I have much more confidence in Dukes progressing than the question mark in LF turning into Kearns-2010….
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We've got depth in LF...not 2B
Should Hammer fail, we’ve got J-Max or Dukes…or Padilla!
Bernadia? Finding a OF is something we’ve never had much trouble doing…so im not really worried about it.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 9, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Options in LF are available, it's a question of the next manager using them or playing Josh for two months to break out of his slump or increase trade value...
I seen quite enough of that scenario……
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This'll be fun to watch through the playoffs.
Watch the offensive stats of the playoff team. Examples…do the right fielders mostly have 100 RBI or lots of homers? Do the center fielders have a lot of stolen bases? Do all the first basemen have 30+ home runs?
How is this different that our Nats and who can we get who can make those stats?
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 9, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, the important thing is who has the best utility guys......
Gritty sparkplugs, goes about their business well, good attitude in the clubhouse……..that sort of thing….
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't underestimate the power of a happy clubhouse...
Remember how they thrived in the absence of Elijah Duk…Wait, one moment please, wait…I’m being told they did not thrive in Elijah Dukes’ absence…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Oct 9, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, who was the happy jerk who wanted Elijah gone?
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guz UZR/150 is -2.1
UZR/150 varies through luck -/+5 over a season, so it is fair to say Guz is roughly a league average defensive SS.
Our huge defensive liabilities this season were Dunn, Gonzalez, Dukes, every CF not named Morgan, and Willingham a bit. Not Guz. All those other guys were darn close to last in baseball (in Dunn’s cae by several standard deviationsat every spot he played) defensively.
So replacing Guz with a league average defensive SS will fix nothing defensively!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 9, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll hate it if you're right......
I don’t believe Dukes as a liability in RF……
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers above say he is awful
below average at best… so far
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 12, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jmax on the other hand....... :-)
looks like a real dominating defensive rf. Super star in the making at least with the glove. But his hitting wound up above average as well. He is facing sample size issues, but it is clear he is at least average or better at both skills for a RF.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 12, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We also seem to have fairly bad defensive pitchers as a group
but, I am iunsure how you fix that other than experience.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 12, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am hoping we sign a real secondbasemen
and trade Guz.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 8, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to be able to trade Guzman.
But, we’re stuck with him.
2011…Nats in the playoffs.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 8, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is always the Pirates... they might take him.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 8, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm... We could probably get McCutcheon for him...
Hey, it’s the Pirates!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 8, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They'd probably make us take Lasto back.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 9, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no returns!
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 9, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lasto finished with a 1 WAR
He was above league average defensively in LF for the Pirates and hit .291. I guess our mistake was playing him in CF. But I would do the Morgan for Lasto and Hanny trade again.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 9, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is no stat for being a wanker
And Milledge is.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 9, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hah!!.....+1...
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to try to build a TWF stat for someone who isn't on the team anymore...
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 9, 2009 10:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
we've still got Guz...
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Oct 9, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dammit! There goes my off season!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 9, 2009 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I love the last lines of the story...LET TEDDY WIN.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 8, 2009 1:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if they let Teddy win...
what possible reason would ABC News have to come do a story about the Nats?
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at Nats News Network on Oct 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t care about news coverage (but Stan does)…making fun of a loser is really making fun of the Nationals, every game for years (except when they weren’t really losers in 2005)
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 8, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That joke of a "fan experience" got old long ago.....Drawing attention to losing is bad PR.
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 8, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Adam Dunn’s mediocrity was most surprising.
I wrote something about this, too.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/268943-most-valuable-nationals-position-players
by a-danv on Oct 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yep we wont win anything as long as he is here
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 9, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeez, guess I'm all wrong about Slumpingham... I'll shut up about him now..
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
"Freakish things are happening."
by cat daddy3000 on Oct 9, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not entirely
He is a below average defensive of with certainty, but his offensive skills are well above average, even for an outfielder. I think wOBA factors in clutchiness a little bit, so all round he is good. Almost everyone is slumpy except maybe the great Albert!!!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 12, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, if u knew he was a defensive liability
he slugged 530 and got obp 40 pct of the time
what exactly surprised you?
by martins on Oct 12, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was in reply to a-dan... im not sure why all my messages are being pulled down..
i could swear i was hitting reply under the message
by martins on Oct 12, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is not that he is bad defensively
It is How Bad he is defensively. it is very rare that a hitting talent that good and witj that many at bats has such a low WAR. We do not know because our reliable defensive stats only go back roughly a decade, but assuming these stats all follow a normal curve he is an extreme outlier. Very rare defensive badness. As rangeless as Babe Ruth was a good hitter.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 14, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is probably fair to say
that no living DH would have had this bad a season defensively had they played lf or firstbase.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 14, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
[ahem] David Ortiz [ahem]
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Oct 14, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dang...you got mine. Maybe Jim Thome? but just because he's lost a few steps.
I know he’s officially in the NL, but let’s face it, he’ll be a DH again next year.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Oct 15, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you need to read on. they never ever have
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 16, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not even close
see mty bottom post
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 16, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually I am a little unfair (very little)
Fangraphs has UZR/150 data going back till 2002. In that time exactly one player has had a worse season playing firstbase with 500 or more innings (didn’t look less) Mike Jacobs in 2008 has a -19.4 UZR/150. Since I made the stats above fangraphs has modified Dunns UZR/150 up to -.18.7.
in LF Dunn’s -28.4 UZR/150 has been bested (worsted) by Ryan Klesko in 2004 (-29.8), of course he had real bad knees and could barely walk and was only playing because of injuries to starters, and current Nat Dimitri Young with a god awful -35.8 UZR/150 in 2003 for the Tigers.
That is it, though. Manny being Manny has never been Dunn bad defensively in lf. Neither Jack Cust, Jason Kubel, or any other full time DHs I can recall are Dunn bad. And David Ortiz was far superior as a first basemen until he got converted to a full time DH (career -3.5, worst year with 100 innings or more -7.0). Dimtri young’s worse year as a firstbasement -14.7 with 2007 Nats.
So Dunn may not have had the worst defensive year of all time, but he is close.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 14, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn is nearly 2.5x times worse than Ortiz was in ortiz's worste season defensively for his entire career.
firstbase: Dunn 2009 -18.6 vs -7 for Ortiz in his worst ever season with 100 or more inning at first.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Oct 16, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand all that, really I do.
However
I think the mistake comes when we try to give runs created on offense equal footing with runs saved on defense. Would it not be accurate to say more runs get created at home plate?
by martins on Oct 18, 2009 3:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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