The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' Pitchers In 2010 + Fall Notes.
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 1, 2009 10:00 PM EST
28 comments
With the help of The Bill James Handbook 2010 (available 11/1/09) and Acta Sports.com, who made Mr. James' Hitter and Pitcher projections available before the book's publication, we're able to take a look at what the future might hold for the pitchers expected to throw for the Nationals next season. Will Garrett Mock start or work out of the pen? Will some of the older pitchers like Craig Stammen and J.D. Martin make the rotation this time around? What will John Lannan's role be as more and more prospects rise through the system? What should fans expect from the Nationals' bullpen arms like Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal or Saul Rivera? After that, what one Chicago writer says about the Nationals' managerial search, and another night in the DWL with Ian Desmond...
After The JUMP...
The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' Pitchers:
| Balester, Collin | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | ---- | -- | - | --- | --- |
| '09 Stats | 7 | 7 | 30.1 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 6.82 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 11 | 11 | 47.0 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5.38 | 0 |
| Bergmann, Jason | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 33 | 21 | 139.0 | 113 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4.25 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 56 | 0 | 48.0 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4.50 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 73 | 0 | 60.0 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4.35 | 0 |
Sean Burnett:
| Burnett, Sean | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 67 | 0 | 60.0 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6.27 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 71 | 0 | 57.2 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3.12 | 1 |
| 2010 Projections | 65 | 0 | 49.0 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5.14 | 0 |
| Clipper, Tyler | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | --- | -- |
| '09 Stats | 41 | 0 | 60.1 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2.69 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 62 | 0 | 91.0 | 84 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 4.55 | 0 |
Livan Herandez?
| Hernandez, Livan | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 27 | 27 | 150.0 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 4.90 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 31 | 31 | 183.2 | 102 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 5.44 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 31 | 31 | 188.0 | 103 | 23 | 8 | 13 | 4.98 | 0 |
| Kensing, Logan | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 43 | 0 | 46.0 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4.33 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 32 | 0 | 35.1 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8.92 | 1 |
| 2010 Projections | 36 | 0 | 41.0 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4.81 | 0 |
John Lannan:
| G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV | |
| '09 Projections | 29 | 29 | 177.0 | 103 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 4.08 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 33 | 33 | 206.1 | 89 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 3.88 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 32 | 32 | 199.0 | 101 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 4.03 | 0 |
Mike MacDougal:
| MacDougal, Mike | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | ---- | --- |
| '09 Stats | 52 | 0 | 50.0 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3.60 | 20 |
| 2010 Projections | 67 | 0 | 67.0 | 59 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4.43 | 4 |
J.D. Martin:
| J.D. Martin | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | --- | -- |
| '09 Stats | 15 | 15 | 77.0 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 4.44 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 29 | 29 | 177.0 | 125 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 4.07 | 0 |
| Martis, Shairon | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | --- | -- |
| '09 Stats | 15 | 15 | 85.2 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 7 | 7 | 43.0 | 26 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 5.23 | 0 |
Garrett Mock:
| Mock, Garrett | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | --- | -- |
| '09 Stats | 28 | 15 | 91.1 | 72 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 5.62 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 31 | 25 | 143.0 | 122 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 4.91 | o |
| Olsen, Scott | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 32 | 32 | 199.0 | 153 | 29 | 10 | 12 | 4.58 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 11 | 11 | 62.2 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6.03 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 22 | 22 | 121.0 | 91 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 4.98 | 0 |
Saul Rivera:
| Rivera, Saul | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 74 | 0 | 80 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.80 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 30 | 0 | 38.1 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6.10 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 43.0 | 0 | 59.0 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4.42 | 0 |
Craig Stammen:
| Stammen, Craig | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | -- | --- | -- | -- | --- | -- | - | --- | -- |
| '09 Stats | 19 | 19 | 105.2 | 48 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 5.11 | 0 |
| 2010 Projections | 20 | 20 | 120.0 | 64 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 4.50 | 0 |
| Villone, Ron | G | GS | IP | K | HR | W | L | ERA | SV |
| '09 Projections | 76 | 0 | 42.0 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4.22 | 0 |
| '09 Stats | 63 | 0 | 48.2 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4.25 | 1 |
| 2010 Projections | 71 | 0 | 54.0 | 44 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4.33 | 0 |
?'s Raised By The #'s:
• Is there any room on the pitching staff for Logan Kensing in 2010? What bullpen arms from last year are you bringing back? Which would you part with?
• Which pitchers will make the twenty-ten rotation? Craig Stammen? Collin Balester? J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Do you expect anything from Scott Olsen?
• Mike MacDougal's projections are cleary skewed by the fact that he hadn't saved a game since 2006 before '09's 20 saves? Will MacDougal hold the closer's role throughout the twenty-ten campaign?
• A .500 season from John Lannan? Does that mean he'll finally receive some support this season? Is anyone guaranteed an 2010 rotation spot right now, outside of Lannan?
• Is Livan Hernandez coming back to DC next season?
2010 Skipper Search UPDATE:
If you haven't already read this when it was linked to in the comments of a previous post or elsewhere around the internet, since it was basically the only "news" to come out of DC this weekend, check out Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers "On Baseball" column entitled, "Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman in great demand", wherein, Mr. uh, Rogers writes (without citing a source, anonymous or otherwise) that the time for Bobby Valentine to claim a major league managing job may have passed:
"Bobby Valentine may be shut out on the job market. He was a finalist for the Indians job that went to Manny Acta, and it appears the Nationals are close to giving former Cubs manager Jim Riggleman the job he had on an interim basis last season."
Is the Washington Nationals' search for a full-time manager going to end with a promotion?
Saturday Night In The DWL:
The Tigres del Licey and Gigantes del Cibao squared off on Saturday with Nationals' infielder Ian Desmond starting at second for Licey and going 1 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly RBI, but it was Desmond's throwing error in the ninth that allowed the Gigantes to rally to tie the game at 3-3 and eventually steal a walk-off win when Tigres' pitcher Oneli Perez gave up a sac fly to left that ended it. Desmond's first DWL error proves costly. The 24-year-old, who impressed after his September call-up to DC, is now hitting .214 (6 for 28) with 7 RBI's in 8 games. Notes: Atahualpa Severino got a backwards K from the first batter he faced in the eighth after replacing Yhancy Brazoban, but Severino was out after allowing a run-scoring single in the next AB, though the run was Brazoban's.
Final Score: Gigantes 4, Tigres 3. MLB.com Box Score.
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Well, this is well into crazy predictions...
I’d be more inclined to see:
The Bill James Predictions on the end of the world.
I mean –
1) Bally wont start 11 games next season
2) Burnett wont have an ERA over 5 (I hope)
3) Logan Kensing wont play 30+ games for any MLB team…including the Nats
4) McDoodle with 4 Saves?
5) As much as I’d like to see it – Martin wont win 10 games with a 4 ERA.
5 reasons why Bill James Handbook will make the perfect gift for those aerospace engineers aerodynamics tests.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 12:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't be a hater!
The shakiest part of any projection system is always AB/GS/IP for players who have changed roles (between bench and starting or bullpen and rotation or injured and not-injured). Look more at the ERA #s and rate stats than the totals for games won/HR/whatever—unless the player’s an established regular who’s, well, still established…
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Nov 2, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James' ERA projections are similar to mine on
Martin
Stammen
Actually I agree roughly with most of them…
but I feel we will get more out of Clippard, Burnett, and Macdoogy. But I see where he gets his projections.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont hate
Just thought it was a bit ‘pie in the sky’ stuff. More so with an inexperienced Nats pen/rotation where stats can violently swing from one to the other.
By in large, I found the stat predictions to be interesting to say none the least. But some of it needs to be tempered with some common sense. Should McDoodle be the closer (and likely he will) – your common sense tells you he will be getting more than 4 saves.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, which is why I say, "don't look at counting stats--look at rate stats"
Skinny Mac will get more than 4 saves is he’s closer, but I think they’ll be exciting in a bad way—that 4.4 ERA looks more than plausible.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
by Doghouse on Nov 2, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rotation 2010
Lackey- If he will come to DC.
Lannan
Olsen
Mock
Balester- He will have a breakout year.
by Spinman on Nov 2, 2009 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right aboot Balester...I've been waiting for his breakout campaign...
Don’t think Lackey will come anywhere near DC….
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 2, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bally will not start 11 games next season...
I have forseen it.
Are you seriously putting Baly over Stammen and Martin?
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only Detwiler believer?
- 2.96 ERA in 27+ innings at AA
- 3.10 ERA in 49+ innings at AAA
- 5.00 ERA in 75+ innings in the majors as a rookie
- 4.04 ERA in 151+ innings shuffling back and forth
His FIP was strong at all three levels, but was particularly impressive in comparison to his big league ERA. Detwiler compiled a 3.31 FIP in AA, a 3.24 FIP in AAA, and a 3.86 FIP in roughly half a season’s worth of starts in the majors. His K rate (5.11/9 IP) was a bit disappointing in the majors, but the evidence of his minor league production (70 in 76+ innings) suggests that he has the stuff to improve upon it.
To be honest, a 5.00 ERA from a rookie is far from disappointing. It’s obviously not what you hope for from any pitcher, but it’s far from uncommon to see guys who turn out great down the road struggle a bit at first. For example, former Expos farmhand/former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee had a 5.43 ERA in his first full season (though he was three years older than Detwiler). Mark Mulder (hasn’t turned out great lately, but had a terrific five year run right after this) had a 5.44 ERA as a rookie. Former NL Cy Young winner (who figures to finish in the top three again this season) Chris Carpenter had a 5.09 ERA with a similar sample size (81+ IP) and strikeout rate (hair over 6.00), but he’s turned out OK.
One of the biggest rays of hope regarding Detwiler is that he actually had a pretty solid rookie season (and, technically, first season above A+ ball) despite an unusually high BABIP at all three levels. His BABIP was .346 at AA, .357 at AAA, and .330 in the majors. Typically, you’ll see a pitcher’s BABIP normalize in the .290-.300 range.
He was our top pick in the 2007 draft (7th overall) and he made huge strides this season. Toss in that he allowed just five runs in 23.2 innings after returning to the big league club in September, and I just don’t see how he’s not an overwhelming favorite to lock down a rotation spot. Oddly, his name remains absent from Bill James’ list.
by bluelineswinger on Nov 2, 2009 3:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When you brough up Detwiler...
I went sprinting back to the list of projections wondering how I forgot him…turns out he’s just not included on either the ’09 or 2010 list which is the only reason for him omission…I definitely have him in the rotation next year…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 2, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you believe "virtual sprint"....?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 2, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do all my exercises virtually.
I watch You tube….
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im a fan
Think he has good potential – but Im not sure he’ll be a main player in the rotation this coming season…although I think he’ll be a guy that will explode onto the scene and go from inconsistent to gun pitcher.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Balester at his best is far more talented than Stammen or Martin...that being said...
…he hasn’t shown it the last two seasons…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 2, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you under rate Martin
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plenty of talented players who bust out...
I think Stammen and Martin make it because they are smart. They dont have the overpowering stuff…so they have to think about getting guys out and developing better control. Greg Maddux…
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am a doubter on Battlestar just like B James
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lackey won't come
I am far from an expert, but these are my predictions. Not what I want to happen.
Lannan
Livan
Detwiler
Stammen
Mock/Martin
I don’t see any real upgrades being made in the rotation. I think most major FAs won’t come here and if they do they would be 1 year deals where they would be traded by the deadline if they worked out. This seems like a probable rotation. I don’t think that Olsen will be tendered a contract. I think Rizzo will give the younger (maybe I shd say less experienced because Olsen is young) guys a shot. I don’t think Burnett will be as good as last year. I don’t think Balester is going to pull it together he doesn’t have much of a presence on the mound. I think they will give Detwiler a shot. The love Mock’s stuff, but Martin was more effective so I don’t know what they will do. I suppose they could move Stammen to the pen, but what’s the point you want to see what you have after his surgery. I feel like this next season is going to be another experiment in seeing what we have. Maybe we’ll get a middle infielder or a catcher.
Any thoughts? I didn’t get much sleep last night so maybe I’m unnecessarily low on the possibilities?
by Hotpockets on Nov 2, 2009 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Really think they'll bring back Livan but not Olsen?
I’m not sure…Livan fits the veteran part of the kind of presence they’ve stated that they want in the rotation, but as for his effectiveness? And no Strasburg? I’m all for working Strasburg up slowly and kinda hope Rizzo agrees with you, since I see no reason in making him take a beating if the team is going to be as bad as last season…
Burnett, MacDougal, Villone? I don’t think it’s as bad as Bowden hoping all the unproven kids last season could hold their own in the bullpen, but Rizzo’s going to be taking a chance that these pitchers who have a history of injury and struggles (Burnett, MacDougal) or are just in the later stages of their career (Villone) can produce what they did in ’09…
I guess I like Balester more than most, but his numbers don’t support my interest and your point about his mound presence is spot-on…you can physically see his frustration as soon as things turn…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Nov 2, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Strassburg?
I think that prospects do better in the majors when they constantly feel like they have to bust their butts to win spots and stay. When a guy gets a “savior of the franchise tag” on draft day, then I have less confidence in his long term success (Kris Benson anyone).
So personally, I expect Strassburg to pitch for the Nats part of next season, but his era wont be better than 5. He will have one or two reazlly great starts in between many bad ones, and he will shuttle back and forth between the majors and minors.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would consider Olson to be an average quality free agent starter if he is healthy
Since he is not healthy and we have tons of cash, I agree we will not bring him back. But, someone else will gamble a bit on him and he will pitch 150+ innings, win a few more than lose, and have a mid to low 4s FIP. In other words, he will be a good deal for the team that signs him, but he wont carry the team.
Had Olson stayed totally healthy this last season and gotten 35 starts for us, we would have won 3-5 more games than we did.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Nov 2, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh I like Balester as well...
I hope he succeeds. I thought he was going to be a real success and he still could be he can’t keep the ball low or keep his cool. I would like anyone if they’d be friggin successful at the Major League level.
by Hotpockets on Nov 2, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Balester - Frustrations
Alright, here is my observation as to Balester’s mound presence and attitude on the mound. If you are told they are going to limit your innings and if you get into a little trouble and you look up and see action in the bull pen you would be a little upset too. Ed, knows I know the frustrations Bally is going through. I have personally heard his fellow teammates say " Balester has the best stuff on the staff". Once he puts it together, watch out. I say leave him in the game to battle through some of the jams and see what he has. I have heard him comment on some of his outings when he says He knew he was “so on” ( Brewers, Marlins) that night that he knew they wouldn’t hit whatever pitch he was throwing. Now thats the attitude we want on the mound. Keep him on the mound and not looking over his shoulder at the bull pen.
by Spinman on Nov 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just dont think 'best stuff on the staff' does it for me
I mean… Colome had great stuff. And he’s probably selling used cars. You’ve got to able to throw quality strikes at the major league level and so far Baly hasnt done it. Whether this means he could be a bullpen canidate…possibly…but he is now got some serious competition for spots…if he doesnt pull it together – career = over.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career over at 23 years old? What?
There are several teams interested in Balester, Detwiler, Stammen, Mock and others. With Balester being the youngest at 23 years old. He has had no arm troubles like some of the rest. Collin has 1 more option left and then he gets arbitration in 2011. Even if they stick him in AAA for the entire year ( Which they won’t , because there will be injuries where they will have to bring Bally up) they will offer him arbitration in 2011 and put him on the 25 man roster. If they want to trade him this would be the year they would do it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Balester, Lannan, Mock, Detwiler, Stammen, Olsen, Hernandez, Martin, Martis would all be on the Nats 25 man at the same time some time during the year in 2010. Bull pen and rotation combo.
Strasburg, Zimmermann in 2011 along with all the others in 2011 and now we have some kind of a pitching staff from the Rotation to the Bullpen. I like it. Add in Macdougle, Bergmann, Clippard, Storen and we will have a chance in 2011.
by Spinman on Nov 2, 2009 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Soz
I meant Nats career. I just think he needs to step it up otherwise he’ll find himself behind a growing crop of talented young pitchers and more likely to be traded for a bat. Although I wouldnt have him at the head of that list – the stockpile of pitching enables the Nats to make some good moves this year and beyond if they need to. I see him as a bit of Hanrahan (someone that will likely perform better in a new environment). I hope im wrong.
I share your optimism about the rotation and pen – most of my comments this season was affirming the belief that these guys could be the mainstay of a winning rotation for many years to come.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
by Mezza on Nov 2, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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