New York Times' Tyler Kepner On Baseball And WAR...

by Ed Chigliak on Nov 23, 2009 3:15 PM EST Comment 5 comments

John Lannan was the only pitcher on the Nationals to even qualify for Fangraphs.com's list of the top WAR values in 2009...(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Former New York Mets' and current Kansas City Royals' starter Brian Bannister sees the change coming, as he tells New York Times' writer Tyler Kepner in an article in the Sunday New York Times Sports section entitled, "Not Your Grandfather's Stats: Baseball Redefined":

"'I think, whether the traditional baseball community wants to acknowledge it or not, the fan base and the media have finally embraced and immersed themselves in advanced statistics," Bannister said. "I think you’re going to see more and more people brought up with that influence. I really just think that the future of the game is in the numbers.'"

(cont.)...

Of particular interest to Mr. Bannister were the WAR values calculated by Fangraphs.com which he followed this season: "'I love WAR,'" Bannister explained to Mr. Kepner:

"...because you’re not only seeing if a guy had 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in, but how good is he compared to other guys at his position?" Bannister said. "I thought Zack (Greinke) had a chance to be the first 10 WAR pitcher."

According to Fangraphs.com, Grienke finished the '09 campaign with a 9.4 WAR, which, as Mr. Kepner reminds readers, "...measures how many more victories a player is worth than an average replacement who could be found on waivers or at Class AAA." By way of comparison, the highest rated pitcher on the Nationals this season was Jordan Zimmermann, who finished the season with a 1.8 WAR after 16 starts and 91.1 IP. John Lannan, (the only pitcher to qualify for Fangraphs.com's list of the Top WAR pitchers in 2009, coming in at #43 of 45), had a 1.5 WAR when the season ended...Ross Detwiler in just 14 starts and 75.2 IP, had a 1.3 WAR...Tim Lincecum, the highest rated pitcher in the NL finished at 8.4 WAR...

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Those WAR values for pitchers are really flawed, though...

Fangraphs uses FIP for WAR, which really undervalues Lannan. If you compare his ERA-FIP to the Nationals ERA-FIP, you’ll notice he’s out performed where FIP says his ERA should be by about a run every 9 innings over the last two years. Those who take FIP as gospel and believe that a pitcher can never control their BABIP say that he’s sustained 400 innings of very good luck. Personally, I find that hard to believe and correspondingly take Fangraph’s pitcher WAR values with a grain of salt. I’d rather see them use some sort of defense-adjusted RA measurement than FIP.

Btw, the New York Times article also contradicsts itself. It says Greinke is pitching based on FIP and then says that he pitched in such a way as to give up more fly balls because he knew his outfielders were better defenders than his infielders. Controlling his balls in play, however, would be impossible according to FIP-believers. Of course, if you look at his stats, like Lannan, his ERA beat his FIP even though he was on the worst team in the American League. Good thing Greinke is so lucky…

(Sorry for the rant… ;-)

by cassander on Nov 23, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

MOAR NUMBERZ!!

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Head hurts...Must learn statsss..ooooh poooo..my head.

What the average for nose picks on game day for by a third baseman who’s father cross dresses as Queen Elizabeth on Tuesday’s in August?

by Berndaddy on Nov 23, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I read an interview with Bannister and

while I think its great that he is SABR inclined, im not sure he quite understands what hes lookin at.

“He(Bannister) wants to know that in 0-2 counts, hitters are 3 for 53 against him in his major-league career.”

What could he possibly deduce from this information? Putting the sample size aside for a second, do we really need a stat to tell us that guys are worse in 0-2 counts? Why would he care what happened in 53 abs anyway?

by martins on Nov 23, 2009 8:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs