Washington Nationals: Tenders/Non-Tenders...Targets?
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2009 2:54 AM EST
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Print• Scott Olsen and Mike MacDougal...non-tendered. Jason Bergmann, Wil Nieves, Jesus Flores, Sean Burnett, Brian Bruney and Josh Willingham...tendered. The Washington Nationals decided to let Olsen and MacDougal test free agency, but already Olsen tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson in an article entitled, "Nats cut ties with MacDougal, Olsen", "I don't have any plans to go anywhere else," though MacDougal says he's disappointed, and (not to read anything into it....but)...he's already talking about Washington in the past tense when he tells Mr. Ladson, "I enjoyed playing there. I thought I did a good job, so yeah, it's a little disappointing. What can you do? I'm a free agent and go from there."
• Bill Shanks at The Braves Show.com mentioned that the Atlanta Braves' non-tendered infielder Kelly Johnson might be a target for the Nationals, so I guess I wasn't the only one who had the thought cross their mind, (though mine was more in a "no thanks" sort of way)...Does the Nationals' newly-hired vice president of player personnel Roy Clark, who served as Atlanta's scouting director for 20-odd years, still like Johnson...who followed up on a .287 AVG, .349 OBP, 39 doubles, 12 HR's and 69 RBI's in 2008 by hitting .229 in 2009 with a .303 OBP, 20 doubles, 8 HR's and 29 RBI's, and saw his WAR value drop from (+2.1) to (+0.7) while his UZR/150 actually improved from (-10.6) to (-0.2), though he played less games (106) than he had in the two previous seasons, (147 in '07, 150 in 108)...on the plus side, Johnson's the youngest free agent infielder out there...
• Just because Chien-Ming Wang is a sinker-baller doesn't mean he's a good fit for the Nationals, and stop trying to impress Mike Rizzo by finding him fast/sinkerballers, he's got a new front office for that...Wang was non-tendered by the Yankees today, after he had surgery on his shoulder last season, (acc. to New York Daily News' writer Mark Feinsand's article entitled, "Yankees pitcher Chien-Ming Wang set for surgery...", it was, "...arthroscopic surgery to repair the capsule (the fibrous membrane that surrounds the joint) in his right shoulder."), though the Yankees say they're interested in bringing the soon-to-be 30-year-old right-hander back after an '09 season which saw Wang go (1-6) with an ERA in the 9.00's, a 2.02 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and a 1.53 K/BB. If Rizzo's going to sign a pitcher coming off shoulder surgery, i'd bet it will be Olsen...
• ?'s For The DC Faithful:
Did anyone go on the market last night the Nationals should think about?
Do you like Kelly Johnson or Chien-Ming Wang for Washington?
Will MacDougal be back? What about Olsen?
Will Josh Willingham defy the rumors to remain on the roster?
What's Rizzo's next move...?
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Non-Tendered activity _IMO
The only real flexibility for the Nationals is at short and at RP/SP. I do like the idea of taking a gamble on Wang. If he can return to his former self, or somewhat close to it, they can be far more competitive. However, with a sinker baller they would need to strengthen their infield as Zimmerman is the only one who can actually field. Guzman UZR of -2.6, Ian Desmond -6.2 in 17 games, and Dunn -17 at 1b. Compare that to Zimmeran’s +20.1, they outweigh his value with their lack of range and brick hands.
Kelly Johnson is an attractive commodity, and is likely a better hitter than Guzman. But what would you do with Guzman, put him at short where he is well below average defensively. They need to get rid of his contract and move on. At this point in his career he is un-tradeable and Johnson is also poor defensively.
I think they should move on Matt Capps, and immediately put him beside Bruney at the end of games. Capps is young, has had some history of shoulder issues (as has Bruney), but is worth the risk for an inexperienced bullpen. They could also look at Neal Cotts who is a lefty out of Chicago.
I also think that they should mock bid for Champan. They should pretend to be contenders to get the fans pumped up. We want a big-market competitive team and they should at least print interest. They cannot have two players who have never seen MLB mound take up 30 million, but it would be fun for the fans.
Meh, Braves' rejects.........unwelcome to or
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
........orbit the home planet of cd3k......Kelly J to Syracuse would be fine...
Capps?……… Pirates’ fans say…… "Overweight “closers” with first numbers to their ERA that rivals their height should not be handed $4 million, $3 million or any million. The world is full of Class A relievers who can throw 89 mph straight fastballs."
http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/12/13/capps-i-just-had-a-gut-feeling-about-it.aspx
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly J would be looking for a MLB contract
Despite his drop off he wouldnt be keen on a Chiefs spot. That said, I think having him, Desmond and a finale of Guzman would be reasonably solid up the middle.
I think Wang would be a mistake – we need guys who are ready to go right now.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
Man, all this Kelly talk is making Alberto sad....
I imagine he gets a better offer elsewhere, if he’s over whatever injuries he had and his price drops to Nats’ levels. I probably really wouldn’t mind him, if there’s not something else going on with his drop in hitting.
But, I’d rather they find a really good defensive replacement kinda guy to take over in the later innings for Guz.
No to Wang and his rehabbing on the Nats’ payroll.
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
K. Johnson had wrist issues last season...
…thus the drop in o-ffense…
A Braves fan I asked said the wrist was convenient to explain his getting beat out for the starting spot…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2009 9:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd go to jail to protect my sources, Roscoe.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's a ridiculous margin between Zim's +20.1 UZR and the other corner...(-17 Dunn, Really?)....
As for Guzman, the Nationals are not going to eat $8M and no one’s going to take Guzman unless they eat a considerable amount of the deal, so i don’t see him going anywhere, so i’m thinking they go straight defense with a 3rd infielder/utility player…
I like Capps too, wonder how the Braves’ signings effect the interest they expressed in him early this winter…
Chapman? Love to see DC go out and get him, but your last line kinda reality-smacked me in the face…
I’d agree on Wang if he wasn’t coming off surgery, I don’t think the Nationals should spend whatever money they will on a question mark, they have to look for as close to a sure-thing-200-inning arm as they can…
Thanks for comments…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2009 1:09 PM EST reply actions
Another Capps' comment....
MarkInDallas wrote re: Capps: ‘I just had a gut feeling about it’
on Sun, Dec 13 2009 2:53 PM
We all saw that Capps’ fastball seemed to have little movement and was fooling no one. He has pretty much retained velocity, but look at the decline in his movement.
Looking at fangraphs pitch f/x data…
www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx
League average fastball horizontal movement is -6.0 inches.
Capps’ FB horiz movt: 2007: -5.8, 2008: -5.1, 2009: -4.3
League average fastball vertical movement is about 8.7.
Capps’ FB vert movt: 2007 10.2, 2008: 9.6, 2009: 9.2.
So, when he was very good, he had average horizontal movement and exceptional vertical movement. He has gradually declined to have below average horizontal movement and near average vertical movement.
This hasn’t just happened this year – it was a gradual process over the last 2 years.
Capps’ tRA:
2007: 3.24 (excellent)
2008: 4.07 (slightly above average)
2009: 5.19 (bad)
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
I realy like the possibility of Kelly Johnson
The kid is only 27-years-old, with four years under his belt. While his 2009 was ugly, .224/.303/.389, his 2008 and 2007 were much better at .287/.349/.446 and .276/.375/.457.
He is worth a shot at the right price. We need help up the middle.
www.TheNatsBlog.com
I've read mostly that he's not that great with the glove.......
He was supposedly injured last year, which may excuse some of the offensive numbers, but the Braves mostly balked at the ~$3mil paycheck due with Prado being a better option….. I bet the Cubs grab him.
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
I always thought he might be ok
I mean he was an OF who was turned into a 2B…. so he might only get better at the position. He’d be a decent pickup to split time with Guz at 2B.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
His defense in LF is an advantage, and he was a SS originally...
Maybe he’s a TAWH Jr……. But if his hitting doesn’t return, he’s pretty useless…
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
His stats show he stinks as a secondbasemen so I hope we do not sign him
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Wang/Johnson
I believe that Guzman is on the final year of his contract, so perhaps best case scenario is that Guzman gets injured or that he has a hot start. He then could be a quick solution for some competitive squad and we move them for average prospect or two. We could pick up Johnson and put him at second if Guzman gets hurt. The problem is you wouldn’t be able to platoon them as Guzman is a switch hitter and both oddly have better splits against lefties.
I still think Wang is an upgrade to the starting pitching for the Nats. Why not take a risk on him, and see if he rebounds? They can move him if he gets healthy, and maybe take a year or two to develop him. Top tier teams don’t have the flexibility that the Nats may have with starting pitching and can’t take on the risk with Wang. I say take advantage of it and hope he blossoms at reasonable discount of < $5 mil. If anything it also may increase exposure for that Nationals in Taiwan and China.
Regarding Capps…what is Pittsburgh doing!? If the Braves do have some quasi-interest, or any other team for that matter, why would you let him walk? He has been the closer for two years, 48 saves, and fantastic stats from 2005-2008. He had trouble last year, but is 25 years old with good stuff. Trade him for something!
I am glad I am not a pittsburgh fan.
As far as Dunn is concerned, read this article. -46.2 Runs to Average at his different positions.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-dunn
I just don't see the Nats signing more than 1-2 free agent arms...
Don’t think going for a rehabbinf Wang, whose best-case recovery predictions have him ready in May/June…
Going into the season with Guzman at second and a rookie SS is risky…not as crazy as last year’s bullpen, but the potential for trouble is there…
Read that Dunn article a while back, his poor D is no surprise…the fact that it’s worst-in-the-league-ishly bad…not a surprise either really…but those HR’s….100/40? Does it make up for D? I’m still not sure…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2009 5:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think Dunn's defense was better after he started playing at 1st....
and he definitely bailed Zimmerman out a few times with his long stretch to catch short throws. Maybe after he’s done the full spring training with the team…at 1st..he’ll be even better.
:-)
MissB is feeling hopeful. Of course, I’d feel lots more hopeful with a few more bona fide starting pitchers and someone good at 2B or SS. BTW: Orlando Hudson is still available.
Im also an optimist.
We must be the only ones MissB!
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
Dunn has played firstbase for part of the season every season since 2002
He has more than 1400 innings in now as a firstbasemen. Unfortunately, he is more likely to get worse than better. For his career Dunn is a -17 UZR/150 at first, but last season he was -25 UZR/150. He has regressed both of the last two years. Here is the data
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF
His bat does give him positive value at firstbase, just nowhere near as much as people think once ther glove is factored in.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
The problem for Wang will be the cost
The Yankees are keen to get him back…which means he’ll want a shot at playing for a contender… and poor little Nats will need to offer a kings ransom for a player who might not rebound. Its not a bad idea…I just cant see it happening. Id expect a Garland or trade on the pitching front.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
And if you want to feel better about Pudge........
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/blue-jays-sign-john-buck.html
“Buck should write a thank you note to Pudge and the Nationals for driving up the price tag for league average catchers” Posted by: sodomojo95
And more about Kendall…….Nobody piling on Bengie yet….
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
— without making a deal," Rizzo said."
Yea, I would have thought Bengie was better than Irod or Kendall
Frankly, Olivio is better than both of them assuming he keeps the power he found last season. 19 home runs is pretty good for a catcher. Note: none of these 4 guys can get on base worth anything, so 19 homers is the most bat you get.
The more I look at all the FA catchers the better Flores looks to me.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Actually Buck is a wiser move than Pudge simply because of the price.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Olsen is coming back
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/nationals-to-sign-scott-olsen.html
If it weren’t for Cat Daddy’s link about Buck, I would not have visited the site and found the good news (well, good until Olsen bombs).
Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.
by Andrew Davidson on Dec 13, 2009 9:40 PM EST reply actions
No to Wang!
Wang can only succeed with a great defense behind him. We have one of the worst even with Zim, So wang would put up numbers worse than Livan if he pitched here. Why sign a guy who is likely a lock for an era around 6? Would be a mistake for sure!
OK on Olson returning if he is healthy. Probably give us a mid 4s era, but thats ok.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
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