Washington Nationals: Aroldis Chapman + Stephen Strasburg = Splash!

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 3:27 AM EST

According, of course, to anonymous sources, the Boston Red Sox and Florida Marlins are the only two teams to have placed offers on the table for Cuban-born Andorran (don't ask) free agent pitcher Aroldis Chapman, who defected while abroad for a tournament in Rotterdam the Netherlands back in early July 2009. Almost immediately, speculation began as to how much the then 21-year-old left-hander (age acc. to ESPN), who'd been clocked by scouts throwing a triple-digit fastball, might collect on the open market since, as an international free agent, he isn't eligible for the First-Year Player draft and can be signed by any team in baseball...

ESPN.com's Jorge Arangure Jr., in the initial article announcing Chapman's defection entitled, "Top Cuban prospect defects", was already throwing out big numbers, writing that, "According to several estimates," the 6'4'', 200-lb lefty, "...could garner a contract worth anywhere from $30 million to $60 million," with fellow Cuban defector Jose Contreras' 4-year/$32 million dollar deal held up as an example of what Chapman might expect.

The public negotiations with the No.1 overall pick in the '09 Draft, Stephen Strasburg, started with a rumor of his desire to sign a $60 million dollar deal with the team that drafted him. The Washington Nationals selected Strasburg and signed the 21-year-old right-hander, at as close-to-the-last minute as possible, to a 4-year/$15.1 million dollar deal, the richest ever given to a draft pick by a major league team. So far, again, according to anonymous sources, or as Miami Herald.com writer Barry Jackson writes in the Chatter section of an article entitled, "Miami Dolphins receivers are inspired by underdog status", "According to what we hear," that's about what's being offered to Chapman by the Marlins, who joined the Red Sox this weekend as the first two teams to publicly declare their interest in signing Chapman:

"The Marlins have made a five-year offer, in the $13 million range, for ballyhooed left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman...South Florida could be appealing to him, but a few bigger-revenue teams figure to dangle more..."

The Red Sox, who clearly fit the definition of a "bigger-revenue team", have reportedly offered Aroldis Chapman a $15.5 million dollar contract. Representatives from 15 teams watched Chapman throw bullpen sessions last week, with teams around the league sending scouts and two teams (the local Houston Astros and the Washington Nationals) sending their GM's to have closer look at the lefty. DC GM Mike Rizzo told fans last week in a chat at the Nationals' official site, that he came away impressed:

"Aroldis is an extremely talented, athletic left-handed pitcher with a ceiling as high as any current amateur pitcher in the world. He has great arm strength and velocity on his fastball and is just in his infancy as a frontline Major League prospect."

Houston Astros' GM Ed Wade was there because the Chapman sessions took place in Houston...why was Mike Rizzo the only other GM in attendance? Do the Nationals see this as a chance to jumpstart the rebuild by adding the two top pitching prospects on the market in the same year? A year in which they also, once again, have the No.1 pick in the draft? Can a team that's struggled as long as the Washington Nationals (nee Montreal Expos) have, afford to pass up a chance to add this kind of pitching talent? Does Rizzo saying that Chapman is, "...in his infancy as a frontline Major League prospect," remind you of the way Washington downplayed the hype on Strasburg, describing him as being no different from other pitching prospects...? The latest estimate for Chapman? Baseball Prospectus' writer Kevin Goldstein sent out the following twitter message on December 16th '09:

"Numbers on Aroldis Chapman seem to be moving up -- one insider just predicted we could get to $30M."

The Nationals were willing to go to $15.1 million for Strasburg, who earned his reputation mainly against college players, though he'd also seen international competition as the only collegiate player to pitch for the '08 US Olympic team...How high should the Nationals go if they decide to pursue Aroldis Chapman, who's earned his rep in the Cuban National League and in international play in the WBC?

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Who knows the minds of Rizzo, Kasten, and the Lerners

I think we all think it would be a great idea to sign this kid. Particularly given that the current public price is 15.5M from the Red Sox. However, its a crapshoot. He could end up being a high priced, fireball throwing, inaccurate reliever like McDoody. For the team that is trying to build from the draft (supposedly) and intl signings (I can’t think of any off the top of my head other than Smiley) I think this is a good decision. However, I imagine it will depend on price AND # of years. This kid isn’t ready to pitch in the Majors. He’s not good enough. So more years the better. Like 6 over 4.

Strasburg is more polished so he might need a full year in the minors. Do we want to pay him some obscene salary for him to be tearing it up in Harrisburg? I could be wrong because I don’t know the details of free agent contracts in the majors, but I’m assuming we pay them the salary no matter where they are playing. Just like an injury.

Back to the Rizzo/Kasten strategy. I have no idea what they are doing. I’m assuming trying to become a decent team in the short term to hold on to fans and an eye on the long term. I’m just not sure that IS their plan.

In Rizzo I still trust, but I’m getting nervous.

by Hotpockets on Dec 21, 2009 8:05 AM EST reply actions

Best gamble on the market

Chapman may never learn to throw strikes. He may have a 50 cent head. He may be closer to 41 than 21. All true. But he still represents the best investment the Nats could make in this offseason.

1. All he costs is money. No draft pick, no lost prospects. Just a smal slice of the obscene profits the Lerners have already turned on this franchise with two historically bad seasons. Yes, profits. And if they want to dispute that claim, open the books and show us how with your piddly small market payroll in a top 10 media market, yo managed to lose money. Cause if you did, then you should either sell or move.
2. There is a chance that Chapman pays off big. You can’t say that about any of the craptacular piles of mediocrity begging for 3 year deals on the FA pitching market right now. None of them, Garland, marquis etc. will earn anything more than what they are paid and are most likely to be net losers. Chapman may flame out but he could pay off huge. That’s the kind of gamble this team needs to take.
3. This wouldn’t be the first tall, hard throwing lefty this organization has ever had. When that guy was 21 he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. So, they traded him away. Lo and behold at about 25 he figured out the strike zone and now he’s a 1st ballot HoFer. So, he may not be able to throw strikes now, but that doesn’t mean he can’t in the future. And it’s not a reason to shy away.

by tyrusray367 on Dec 21, 2009 10:00 AM EST reply actions

Randy who?

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 11:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Bedard

Perhaps they should focus some energy on someone like Erik Bedard. He has had a couple arm injuries the last couple years which would decrease his value. Low cost, high gain opportunity.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by Bsullivan on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions

I would like for us to sign Bedard.

Unfortunately I havent heard anything interst for him coming from the nats.

Orakpo!!! Eric Berry, Sam Bradford or Russel Okung next year!

by Horcasitas4 on Dec 21, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

I think signing Chapman would significantly decrese the pressure on Strassburg.

It may be worth signing him just to give Strasburg every chance to succeed. I do think that Chapman can be a great pitcher, and it would be great for him and Strasburg to head up our rotation in a couple of years.

Orakpo!!! Eric Berry, Sam Bradford or Russel Okung next year!

by Horcasitas4 on Dec 21, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions

It's a little bit funny

People were SO up in arms about giving Stephen Strasburg $15 million, yet they’re very willing to give a guy who has NO track record, and seemingly slightly less talent, the same amount no problem what-so-ever.

Chapman’s total line in the WBC: 0-1 5.68 ERA, 6.1 IP, 8K, 4 BB.

I also remember another young player who, if anyone saw their bullpen session alone, would have looked very similar talent wise to Chapman. High-mid-90’s fastball. Two other good power off-speed pitches. Youth. Who am I thinking of….:

Danny Cabrera.

I’m not saying Chapman wont pan out. I am saying however that there is a far greater chance that Strasburg will. If his 15$ million is such a gamble…put that in perspective regarding Chapman.

www.TheNatsBlog.com

by yardyoder on Dec 21, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions

I don't think it's fair to say no track record...

He’s got more international experience than Strasburg had, and anecdotally at least since I know little about Cuban baseball, i’d say that the competition he faced there is nothing to ignore…

But he’s a raw, as of now one-pitch pitcher, who, as Rizzo says is at the beginning on terms of becoming a legitimate pro…but as they say (who are they? Good question?) you can’t teach a 100mph fastball…

If the Nationals gave Strasburg $60M I would’ve been complaining, $15 seemed like a bargain in comparison…

I will now return to dreaming of a Strasburg, Chapman and Zimmermann based rotation in 2011…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 11:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Strasburg, Chapman and Zimmermann based rotation in 2011

That’s some serious heat. I can just see the K totals already.

Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 21, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Money Money Money...

The Nationals have so many holes that it doesn’t make any sense to sign two pitchers to 30+ mil. who are not developed. Roy Halladay just signed a contract for 20 million a year. What is the likely hood that either of these guys will win half as many games in their career as Halladay? In the history of baseball, probably not very good. Ben MacDonald, Jose Contreras, Hideki Irabu…even El Duque, a few first picks and some international signings. Some bad, some okay, but none worth 15+ million. And the daniel cabrera comparison is spot on.

In some ways it is therefore better to spend 20 million on a known product than thirty on two unkowns. And they ARE unknown at the major league level.

I suggest that they use their money, 15+, that they’d spend on Chapman and put towards a former Cy Young candidate in Chien-Mien Wang or Erik Bedard, and sign a middle infielder to improve their defense. They would still probably have money to fill out some back up spots and an extra outfielder.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by Bsullivan on Dec 21, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions

Signing Chapman would certainly be a big risk on the Nationals' part.

But I think, depending on what the scouts have seen, it might be worth it. I really do think the fact that Rizzo went there himself is meaningful, and there are only two offers (that we know about), so the Nats might actually have a chance at this guy, if they want him.

by John Quinn on Dec 21, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

MASN

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 2:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

MASN's Byron Kerr reporting that the Nationals are set to sign Jason Marquis....

More news to follow…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 2:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

The only Cuban the Nats might sign is named

Livan Hernandez….all you DESPERATE & DELUDED Nats fans need to take a reality pill….

by The Mamba on Dec 21, 2009 7:54 PM EST reply actions

Is the reality pill the blue or red one, I always forget...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

Pretend like I’m saying something about rabbit holes.

by John Quinn on Dec 22, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

Chapman is behind Strasburg in development.

Chapman was a member of the Cuban Jr. National Team. He was a prospect for the National Team. He is raw and will need a few years in the minors to learn the MLB game and to sharpen up his breaking stuff. He has high potential but is known for being a player who craves attention and the night life. If I could afford him I would take the chance.

Strasburg has 4 years experience in high level college baseball. xlnt coaching and has attended many pitching clinics. He has worked hard and his Arizona Fall League numbers were great. He looks like a can’t miss.

Washington, Seattle, Kansas City and the Rangers are all quietly building contenders.

As my favorite hobby I am a baseball fan. I love to play GM during the off-season and a Dodger fan during the season. I love baseball more than any one team. Washington seems determined to improve today and years to come.

Patrick

by Padriac on Dec 21, 2009 8:19 PM EST reply actions

This is really refreshing.

The Nats are forgotten about in the media, but I think there are quite a few of us (most of us here, in fact) that believe that they will be good in two to three years.

by John Quinn on Dec 22, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions

"Washington seems determined to improve today and years to come."

Apparently two free agents and 18-20 front office types from around the majors agree, everyone’s coming to DC…

Washington, Seattle, Kansas City and Texas. I can’t wait for the day it’s true, enough Boston/NY drama please…

Every assessment of Chapman i’ve read says the same as you about the lefty, but I think it’s definitely worth reasonable deal…there’s a lot of the raw talent there and the Nationals think they have the system to groom talent now…prove it!

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 21, 2009 9:02 PM EST reply actions