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An Optimist's Take on the Nationals' Offseason Doings: Three Reasons the Nats are Heading in the Right Direction

  To my count, the Nationals have made four major moves in the 2009 offseason: they've signed Doug Slaten from the Diamondbacks, traded for Brian Bruney, signed future hall-of-fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez, and signed Jason Marquis, a former Rockie. But the moves don't stop there -- the Nats are reportedly interested in Texas reliever Eddie Guardado, are still interested in Matt Capps and have shown more interest than most in Aroldis Chapman, who is widely considered the top free agent pitcher this offseason. I am very impressed with what Mike Rizzo has done thus far, and here is why:

1.) He's brought in one of the veteran starters they so desperately needed. Jason Marquis, while far from an ace, is a reliable arm for the top of the rotation and he pushes the Nats' other arms down a rung. The Nationals' ERA for starters was 4.97 last year, good for 27th in the majors. In signing Marquis, Rizzo has knocked a younger pitcher out of the rotation and replaced him with a more reliable, more knowledgeable one.

2.) He's shored up the Nats' leaky bullpen. The Nats' relievers finished dead last with a 5.09 ERA last season, more than a full run above the National League average. The two relievers the Nats have brought in so far have ERAs of 4.27 (Brian Bruney) and 3.68 (Doug Slaten). Along with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett, the Nationals have the basis of a solid bullpen in 2010. If they are able to sign Matt Capps as well, who has closing experience, things will be very different next year.

More reasons after the jump...

Star-divide


3.) He's bought some catching insurance in Pudge Rodriguez, in case Jesus Flores doesn't work out in 2010 (or ever). The 38-year-old Rodriguez seems to think he's capable of being an everyday player. With a two-year contract, the Nats can take their time in bringing up catching prospect Derek Norris, who finished the 2009 season with single A Hagerstown.

  Really, at this point, I like all of the moves that Mike Rizzo has made. Sure, he's paid a little bit more than I would have liked, but when you're at the bottom, you have to pay more to get the players you want. Mike Rizzo has made it clear that he isn't done making moves this offseason, so here's what I'd like to see him do:

1.) Sign another veteran pitcher. Right now, the rotation has only two locks in Marquis and John Lannan, leaving three spots for J.D. Martin, Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, Scott Olsen (thanks Unkle Wheez!) and Craig Stammen to fight over at spring training. Signing another veteran would mean only two of those pitchers (Detwiler and Stammen, I'm looking at you) would be needed in the major league rotation, allowing the rest to further develop in Syracuse or be pushed to the bullpen. The Nationals won't be contenders in 2010, so signing an ace isn't necessary, and the Nats can save some bucks there.

2.) Sign Aroldis Chapman. Mike Rizzo was one of only two GMs to see him pitch, and was the only GM who traveled to see his bullpen session. Rizzo's appearance signals serious interest, or at least curiosity, but Rizzo was impressed when he left, calling Chapman "an extremely talented, athletic left-handed pitcher with a ceiling as high as any current amateur pitcher in the world." At a cost of $15-20 million for four or so years, Chapman is certainly not without risk, but coming off of back-to-back 100 loss seasons, the Nationals are a team that needs to take risks. Signing Chapman would also show once and for all that the Lerners are willing to spend money on their team, as undeserved as that reputation is. With two high upside pitchers locked down in Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals could be contenders sooner rather than later.

  I don't see signing a second baseman as a huge priority. If Guzman does in fact move to second, he'll be better off than he was at short, and even then he's only around for one more year. Save the money, spend it on Chapman, and figure something out after 2010. Until Rizzo gives me reason to think otherwise, I'm just going to accept the fact that he knows a lot more than I do, and believe that he's doing the right things.

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I think with the Additions of Orlando Hudson and Aroldis Chapman we will be perrinial contenders now that we have sured up our bullpen ( crosses fingers Capps signs ).

Imagine this lineup

1. Nyjer Morgan – CF
2. Orlando Hudson – 2nd
3. Ryan Zimmerman – 3rd
4. Adam Dunn – 1st
5. Josh Willingham – LF
6. Elijah Dukes – RF
7. Christian Guzman – SS
8. Ivan Rodriguez / Jesus Flores – C

and think all the k’s if we had a rotation like:

1. John Lannan – L
2. Stephen Strasberg – R
3. Jordan Zimmerman – R
4. Aroldis Chapman – L
5. Jason Marquis – R

Finally closing out games with the likes of:

Tyler Clippard – R
Jason Bergmann – R
Doug Slaten – L
Sean Burnett – L
Eddie Guardado – L
Bryan Bruney – R
Mat Capps – R

If we can manage this for our 2011 Roster, I would be a VERY happy Nats fan.

by VASteelersFan on Dec 23, 2009 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

no Zimm? Tommy John surgery has gotten alot more reliable lately, and he was the #1 prospect in our system before the injury

by Doncosmic on Dec 23, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

huh?

No love for Olsen? He is a starter on our staff if he is healthy.

by Unkle Wheez on Dec 23, 2009 4:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Oh yeah, him too!

I guess that is entirely dependent on how he really has healed. I would love to see him in the rotation in 2010.

by John Quinn on Dec 23, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Another SP and MI

While I don’t think the team has to spend a lot on another MI, they certainly wouldn’t kill the future if they did. I’m seriously hoping a team suffers an injury at some point to their SS or 2B so the Nats can ship Guzman over. Yes, he’s only around for one more season, but if that can be shortened in anyway, I’d be happy.

I read on MLBTR that Jon Garland is a target of the Minnesota Twins. Hey Jon, Minnesota isn’t exactly the West Coast. I couldn’t care less where he signs now, but for his own reputation, I hope it’s a team that’s actually on the West Coast.

Anyway, I’d still love to see another quality-ish SP added to the rotation whether it be by signing a FA or acquiring via trade. Scott Olsen doesn’t exactly excite me as the only guy aside from Lannan and Marquis as a “lock” for the rotation.

Anyone know if there’d be any biters on Smartie, if he were cast out into trade waters?

Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 23, 2009 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

Garland isnt keen on the Nats - wants a West Coast team

Which is a shame. Which leaves us with a Smoltz/Livan option for another vet starter this season. I would still be keen on it as it would give us more options to play with and have a heap of pitching depth at AAA. Also would give us some trade options and options to convert guys from starters to the bullpen.

Id look to trade Smartie…or others if we could get a decent 2B prospect. Although we did draft one last year (Kober…something)

"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.

by Mezza on Dec 23, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

What about Martis?

Isn’t he still with the team? I’d think he’d be in the mix for a roster slot as well.

by d_c_guy on Dec 23, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions  

Rizzo said he's in the mix in a recent chat...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 23, 2009 5:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Sounds like Capps wants in....

Buster Olney “Sources: Capps would be closer”…in DC!!

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 23, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions  

Whoohooo!

RIZZO!

"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.

by Mezza on Dec 23, 2009 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

2012: End of the World or Beginning of Nationals Competitive Streak?

What I think:

Jason Marquis: When ‘wins’ and ‘innings pitched’, are cited as the reason for your pickup, that screams ‘innings eater in good offense’. However, I think this is a great stop-gap move for the next two years to give the team another John Lannan type at least.

Ivan Rodriguez: If I’m being nice, I’d call this a “hall-of-famer to put asses in the seats for ticket sales” pickup. If I’m being mean and perhaps more sincere, I’d say Dmitri Young pt. 2. Expensive, replacement-level 2-year signing.

Relief pitchers: Yes, yes, yes! Relatively cheap win-bringers to fill the carousel of caustic middle relief that we saw last year! My speculative side says ‘mid-season trade bait for prospects’. Either way, I’m happy.

Aroldis Chapman: Not sure what his contract will be, but if you have no problem adding Pudge and a bevy of solid relief pitchers, what’s a few-millionish a year for a guy with terrific upside? Take the chance—-if it doesn’t work out, a hit to the Lerner’s pockets…but if it does, it’s setting the team up for one hell of a 2011-2013. Even if he turns into a mere #3-4 starter, that’s well worth the upside + risk.

Learn the Soriano lesson: I know we like the guys, but the Nats need to be major sellers come July. The first player to go? Adam Dunn…I effin’ love his abilities, but he’s not too realistic to sign and he’s just the kind of commodity that teams will be racing to give up some fine prospects for. Christian Guzman should also go on the block.

by Mr. Flak on Dec 23, 2009 6:54 PM EST reply actions  

You guys are more optimistic than I am. I see little improvement over the team since Sept.

Marquis is a buy high in my view. He played for one of the best defensive teams in baseball last season and as a result had a great BABIP of .291. In every other stat, his ks, walk, k to BB ratio, %strikes, etc. is nothing close to special and roughly as good as any other year of his career. In other words, his lower ERA last season was mostly the fault of his defense and not him. Pitching exactly the same for us his ERA will be closer to 5. You guys did notice that he was left off the Rockies post season roster? He was totally healthy. In my opinion we have 4 other starting pitchers currently on our roster that are just as good and cheaper once you adjust their stats by age.

CAPPS was a downright dreadful pitcher in 2009, but I think he has a solid chance to rebound. However, rebound to me puts his era in the low 4s. Not the ERA I like from my closer, but closers are over rated. So its not the end of the world. But, we could have done as well keeping it in house for less money. Convert Martis 2009 stats to what he would have typically done in relief and he is better than Capps will like be next season. Capps has 67 saves and 22 blown saves for his career. I have read the average pitcher saves 80% every year. Capps is well below that. Macdougle career is 70 and 19. Capps is not and has never been a good closer, but again closers are over rated.

IROD is down right terrible as a hitter lately. he on based .280 last season which was almost 60 points worse than Austin Kearns .336. Belliard as a Nat had a higher OPS than IROD in 2009 (.670 vs .663). Sure he was better than any NAT at throwing out runners. but offensively as a starter he was pretty bad and should get worse for us since he will be older.

O dog is hopefully not going to be a NAT. Belliard was made the starter over him in LA because Belliard has been much better defensively for almost 3 seasons now (check fangraphs data from baseball info systems if you do not agree with me). Sure Hudson was a gold glover years ago, but he got bad after that. We do not need a bad defensive secondbasemen with a solid bat. I would rather an average defensive second basemen with a slightly below average bat (guzman) and Desmond at SS.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Dec 24, 2009 4:33 AM EST reply actions  

Hmm...

You might be right about Marquis, but only time will tell on that regard. I think Capps will rebound next season, and I’m not too concerned about Rodriguez’ batting average because he should still be a good defensive player (I hope). Catcher is not a position I feel needs to have a good bat, and very few catchers do (Joe Mauer, obviously).

by John Quinn on Dec 24, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Gold Glove

Hudson won the Gold Glove at 2nd LAST YEAR

by VASteelersFan on Dec 24, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Dead-on with Chapman, but...

You forgot Jordan Zimmerman coming back mid-season and now guys are coming back evenstronger off of Tommy John surgery. Also, an ace pitcher can make the Nats a possible contender. The line-up is good. Their bullpen is now shored-up with Capps and Bruney, they have a legit #2 starter in Jason Marquis, if you throw an ace at the front of the rotation, the Nats become a solid team to contend. The problem is that Lacky signed with Boston and there is no other legitimate Ace out there. So, sign Chapman and hope that he and Strasburg are ready mid- or late-season (not unreasonable if they are as good as advertized), or just bring them up in 2011.

by NatsFanatic on Dec 24, 2009 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

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