Dunn in LF + Johnson @ 1B + Willingham @ C = nobody traded? Willingham splits time with Flores at C, and occasionally when WAS faces a lefty, Flores starts at C and Willingham subs for either Dunn in LF or Johnson at 1B.

Sure Willingham’s D at C wasn’t that great, but if you can finagle his bat into the lineup alongside both Dunn and Johnson rather than instead of one of them, then you’ve got a pretty nice lineup as it will also include Zimmerman, Dukes, Milledge etc.

I say ship out two prospect and Hernandez for Uggla. It doesn’t help the OF and 1b problem, but it sounds nice anyway. Since Uggla’s arbitration it’s been a rumour they might dump his payroll.

Yea, I know I’m not helping the conversation, but what do you what, chop liver…

Yep after reading more about him, it seems his a better hitting Belliard. Last I checked we’ve got bigger fish to fry in the outfield. It’s gonna be a whale of a spring in DC baseball circles. It makes me wish my sister still lived in Orlando.

RF Dukes
SS Guzman
3b Zimmerman
1b/LF Dunn
LF Willingham/1b Johnson
CF Milledge
C Flores
2b Whoever (Belliard/Harris/Hernandez… who, much as Manny seems to love him, I’m just not buying until I’ve seen him do anything)

I know that Acta would much rather have both Dukes and Milledge in run production spots, but you have to think about constructing the lineup to put a competitive product on the field each day. Simply put, batting Guzman (or an unproven Anderson Hernandez, as has been suggested that they might do) in the leadoff role is a complete waste. Guzman’s big strength is his contact. He’s going to hit for a solid batting average, make contact 85% of the time. He doesn’t see a lot of pitches (one skill a prototypical leadoff man should have) or draw very many walks. He has the speed you’re looking for out of a leadoff man, but his actual performance at the plate screams number two hitter. He’ll always put the ball in play. He does the little things…. etc., etc.

While Dukes brings the power that you’d like to see a little lower in the order, he also brings the speed of a leadoff man (14 for 17 in SB attempts last season) and likely barely falls to being the second most patient hitter the Nats have now that they’ve acquired Dunn. He drew 50 walks in ~325 plate appearances last season. Despite mediocrity in the average category (.264), he led the Nats (minimum of 200 PA) with a .386 OBP. He’ll wear pitchers down. He’ll show the rest of the lineup what kind of stuff the opposing starter has that day. He can turn a walk into a double. He’d be a terrific fit in the leadoff spot. I just don’t realize why nobody wants to even try to consider him for the role.

Again, decent average hitter; horrible all-around on base skills. Guzman has a lifetime .270 batting average (ok… not great, but pretty solid) and a lifetime .307 OBP (which is dreadful in any spot of the order, but particularly in the leadoff spot). His knack is for putting the bat on the ball. Guzman’s contact rate last season was phenomenal, as he struck out just 57 times in 579 at bats. The on-base percentages of your (with a legit shot at the roster) 2009 Washington Nationals…. lifetime first, then 2008 in parentheses

Nick Johnson .396 (.415)
Adam Dunn – .381 (.386)
Josh Willingham – .361 (.364)
Elijah Dukes .351 (.386)
Austin Kearns .354 (.311)
Dmitri Young .351 (.394)
Ryan Zimmerman .341 (.333)
Ronnie Belliard .340 (.372)
Lastings Milledge .329 (.330)
Willie Harris .324 (.344)
Cristian Guzman .307 (.345)
Wily Mo Pena .307 (.243)
Jesus Flores .301 (.296)
Luke Montz .308 (.308)
Roger Bernadina .294 (.294)
Alberto Gonzalez .296 (.407)
Anderson Hernandez .283 (.407)
Kory Casto .264 (.297)
Wil Nieves .259 (.309)

Obviously, we can eliminate quite a few of those guys for a variety of different reasons. Johnson’s on the block, and will fill a platoon at best in the post-Dunn era…. Though he apparently showed up early to camp, who knows what (if anything) can be expected of Da Meat Hook, who (at best) ends up in a Johnson like situation where he could find the occasional at bat…. Harris is probably going to play three or four times a week, scattered around the field (assuming he doesn’t win the second base job, which he won’t because he’s much more versatile than either Belliard or Hernandez)…. After last season, it would be shocking to see Pena make the opening day roster… Montz, Nieves (will fight for backup catcher’s role), Gonzalez, Hernandez, Bernadina, and Casto all have a couple of things going against them. We don’t have enough of a sample size to see how good they really are as big league hitters. They’re also all pretty much fighting to make the roster… not be put into a leverage spot in the order. Of the group, the only guy who I could see truly developing into a potential leadoff hitter is Bernadina, who showed significant improvement in getting on base last season (.400+ in 502 plate appearances between AA and AAA… by the way, he stole 41 bases in 52 attempts in the minors last year as well). However, with the overcrowding in the outfield, there’s no way he makes the club as anything more than a fifth outfielder.

That leaves us with Dunn, Willingham, Dukes, Kearns, Zimmerman, Belliard, Milledge, Guzman, and Flores. Let’s mark Dunn and Zimm off that list immediately, as he’s clearly entrenched in the 3 and 4 holes…. Willingham has more of a track record (and a slightly better lifetime OBP) than Dukes, but given the choice between having him and Dukes lead off, it’s a no-brainer for me. Willingham can actually do some of the other chores that are typically employed by a leadoff man (generally, what I’m saying is that the former catching prospect can run a lot better than most people think he can), but not nearly as well as Dukes does…. After regressing in 2007 and then almost completely falling off the map in 2008, Kearns is going to have to have a monster spring in order to avoid being relegated to a role as the fourth outfielder… Belliard doesn’t necessarily look like he’s going to have a full-time starting role. More importantly, his vast improvement last season (virtually mirroring his 2007 production in the counting categories [HR/Runs/RBI… and ironically more walks than he had in 2007] in 200 less at bats) screams regression to the mean, considering that he’ll turn 34 in April….

Milledge gets on base at a .330 clip. That’s both lifetime and last season. He has the power to hit lower in the order, but he simply doesn’t seem as developed as an all-around hitter as Dukes is. Some food for thought: Milledge tied Zimmerman for the team lead in homers last season with 14. Dukes was one behind with 13. Dukes did so in 276 at bats. Milledge needed 523. (OK… bad example… I’m talking about a leadoff hitter, right?) Dukes hit .264/.386/.478 last season. Milledge hit .268/.330/.402. Dukes has a year on Milledge in age… Milledge has a year on Dukes in experience. Milledge swiped 24 bags… Dukes 13….. again, Dukes had about 250 less at bats. Extrapolated to the same amount of ABs that Milledge had, Dukes’ pace would have had him hit 24.6 homers and steal 26 bases.

Honestly, though, what this comes down to isn’t who you’d rather have in a power production spot in the order (the six hole would be what most people consider the final spot in the heart of the order), it’s who you would rather end up seeing get more at bats each day. Give me the guy who gets on base 38% of the time over the guy who gets on base 33% of the time any day of the week, given that everything else is equal (which it, admittedly, was not last season…. pretty much everything fell in Dukes’ favor).

As noted above, I don’t see Kearns being anything more than a fourth outfielder unless he has a monster spring (and/or Milledge or Dukes have incredibly awful springs). Kearns is entering the final year of his deal. Milledge and Dukes are under the Nats’ control for about the next five years each. Particularly with a team that doesn’t expect to compete (for a division title…. I honestly believe that the Nats will challenge [not surpass, but challenge] the .500 mark this season, but that could just be the homer in me) and is in rebuilding mode, the plan has to be to get the young guys who you expect to contribute in 2010 and 2011 as many reps as possible.

Dukes does not have to = Soriano. In fact, Soriano is and ever shall be wasted in the leadoff spot. His OBP (.329 lifetime…. to say he’s a bit of a free-swinger would be cruel to Shea Hillenbrand) means that he should absolutely, without a doubt, be in a run-producing spot in the order (the five hole would actually make the most sense…. then again, you have to go with what your team allows you to do) rather than be expected to ever be the guy getting on base in front of power guys. Albeit, Soriano has proven time and time again (including his 40/40 year with the Nats) that he doesn’t necessarily need people hitting behind him.

Dukes in the leadoff role would have to be nearly the polar opposite of Soriano. In fact, he should do exactly what he’s always done. The beauty of trying someone like Dukes out in the leadoff role is that you don’t have to ask him to change. You don’t have to ask him to try and see more pitches to help the guys down in the dugout see what kind of stuff the opposing pitcher has that day. You don’t have to ask him to wait for his pitch or take the walk.. You don’t have to ask him to take advantage of that green light the third base coach is giving him after he’s taken that walk. These are things that he does anyway. That’s how he plays the game.

Milledge would be fine in the six hole. Another key thing to look at here is that with (presumably) Dunn in the cleanup spot and either Willingham (lifetime .361 OBP) or Johnson (lifetime .396 OBP) batting in front of him, there are going to be plenty of chances to drive in runners from that spot in the order. Perhaps more importantly, hitting in a lower leverage spot in the order should help him stay relaxed at the plate and (hopefully) grow. As stated above, based on last year’s performance, he’s not nearly as far along as Dukes is.

Errrr… sorry for the long post.