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Nats Pitching

Hey I am new around here but a huge NATS fan and a farily solid stats guy.  I have been thinking about the NATS starting pitching of late.  I think we are more solid than many believe.  Assuming Perez actually plays for us, then I expect the following ERAs:

Hill and Lannen high 3's ~ 3.95 and 50 starts

Perez and Olson low 4's ~ 4.35 and 65 starts

and Daniel Cabrera will post a mid 4's era ~ 4.55 (thanks to getting out of the AL east and pitching to pitchers) and 30 starts

Baelster and others get era in the mid to low 5's with 17 starts.

If I am right, then that is actually a solid rotation.  It lacks an Ace but all and all should be about league average. 

Our bullpen lacks a good closer, but otherwise appears fairly deep because I think Bergmann and Chico could dominate as relievers (era's in the 3's).  So it would not shock me if the pen ends the season average to slightly above. 

What to you guys think?

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As long as the Nationals add Stephen Strasburg as the ace next year...

…this is shaping up to be a decent/competitive rotation in the next year or two…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 22, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

Just saw this on FJB...... oy...

The signings of Olsen and Cabrera give the Nationals the distinction of having two of the top five biggest losers of fastball velocity from ’07 to ’08. Here’s the list of the five pitchers who saw the greatest decrease:
Scott Olsen: -2.6%
Dan Wheeler: -2.0%
Tom Glavine: -1.8%
Francisco Rodriguez: -1.8%
Daniel Cabrera: -1.8%

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 22, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

K-Rod? That's gotta just be from overuse...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 22, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm hoping our guys were just trying to become crafty.......

Last year, just reading about the pitchers made my shoulder or elbow ache and I envisioned having to have labrum surgery and wondering how my tendon sheaths were holding out…. And the nightmares of the amputations were no box of puppies….

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 22, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Welcome to FB, Brian--always nice to see another stat-head!

Take a look at the Federal Baseball Wins Above Replacement Projection Project, our attempt to apply some stats to projecting the 2009 season. This is the most recent post (and it has links to all the previous ones, too).

"We’re all neighbors in NatsTown™!" --NNN

by Doghouse on Feb 22, 2009 7:08 PM EST reply actions  

Zim vs. Zim, live batting practice..... and Cabrera

AA guy against the FotF?

from http://nats320.blogspot.com/

"Zimmerman had no chance because Zimmermann was on top of his game.

 Twice Ryan Zimmerman was fooled by Jordan Zimmermann’s pitches. Once getting Our Number 11 to swing and miss on a beautiful changeup—setup by a steady diet of fastballs. Then a second time on a wicked slider that had Ryan muttering, chuckling and shaking his head as he stepped out of the batting cage.

Jordan Zimmerman throws hard."

  And in other news, Daniel Cabrera, a “work in progress”……….

   “Randy St.Claire seems to have found a flaw in Cabrera’s pitching motion. Consistently, Our Number 46 marked off a forward foot landing point for Daniel to hit. At the same time, encouraging Our Number 40 to NOT pitch so straight up and down. "Daniel, extend your left foot toward the line, follow through and bend over. We want to see a nice and easy motion from you.”

St.Claire was pleased with Cabrera’s progress in the side session. But once Daniel got on the mound to pitch live BP—St.Claire was standing right there—yelling over to Cabrera to pick up the pace, find a better rhythm. Everyone knows Daniel Cabrera can consistently throw as hard as anyone in the game. The problem has always been he gets lost eventually and falls apart."

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 23, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions  

cat daddy, i'm fine with quoting other sources, but...

i don’t think SBF’s scouting reports have much merit when discussing the state of the Nats pitching.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com.

by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 24, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

But they're so... positive!

C’mon, Dave, don’t you want to believe?

"We’re all neighbors in NatsTown™!" --NNN

by Doghouse on Feb 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it's acutely insufferable over there...

…which points to my desperation in looking for anything, anywhere, related to the players. It was the first and only mention of Zimmermann I’d seen.

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 24, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

on the larger topic

Brian, i hope you’re right, but count me in the “wait and see” camp (ss my sig line).

if Lannan and Hill combine for 50 starts, i’ll eat my hat. obviously Perez is gone so he’ll have to be replaced in your prediction. and if “Oh Danny Boy” Cabrera has a sub-5.00 ERA, i’ll eat YOUR hat, not to mention the 30 starts. also, Chico isn’t going to be anyhwere near a MLB mound until July at the earliest.

folks, we’re in for a season of revolving starting pitching. Lannan and Olsen are the only bets to make it though all season, and even Olsen has some lingering questions.

get ready for a string of Balestar, Mock, Bergmann, Martis, Zimmermann, maybe even Towers, Clippard and Chacin if we’re not lucky. this season is going to be all about finding out which of the young guys are going to stick.

the back of the pen is set with Hanrahan and Rivera, and we’ll see Shell, Hinckley, Estrada, Sosa, Colome, Larrison, JD Martin, Ledezma, Glover, Atilano and Young all paly roles as the season goes along.

we should start a pool. how many pitchers will the Nats use this year? i think i’ll go out to the main page and start it.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com.

by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 24, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

I'm stll working out the rules of the Federalbaseball.com Prediction Cup, Dave, but that last sentence is exactly what we're going for...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 24, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

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