Shawn Hill Wins Arbitration Case, $775,000 For '09.

The New Math...

(1-5) + 5.83 = 775,000

MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez is reporting, in an article entitled, "Hill Awarded $775,000 in arbitration", that Shawn Hill prevailed in his arbitration case with the Washington Nationals, who had offered Hill half a million dollars for next season.

Now to be fair, Shawn Hill's being paid for a career's worth of work, not just last season's injury-filled campaign, and if healthy, (an "if" of Nick Johnsonesque proportions), Hill's an effective sinking-fastballer, who is (36-29) with a 3.10 ERA in 97 Minor League starts, but he's never made more than 16 starts in a Major League season, and he's just (7-15) with a career 4.93 ERA in 37 starts with the Expos/Nationals. What role he'll fill on the Nationals' roster this season is thus far undecided...

about 3 years ago Patrick Reddington 9 comments 0 recs |

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Quite frankly:

Why are the Nats going to arbitration over $275,000? That’s not a huge deal, and they kind of stiffed FLop last year by doing the same thing. When healthy, Hill is an excellent pitcher: he’s a prominent ground-ball pitcher who averages a little over 5.5 K/9 and nearly 2 K/BB. That 2 K/BB is one of the tipping points between average and good pitchers.

That 5.83 ERA last year was fueled by a BABIP of .373; don’t tell me you think he can keep that up, especially when league average is closer to .300. (I’d buy somewhere around .310 due to his groundball splits, but ….yeah, that’s still 60 points). I could go into a discussion of tRA here, but I’ll pass on that unless someone asks.

Either way, last year Hill had 0.6 WAR. Daniel Cabrera was -0.9 WAR. One of these guys got $2.5MM; the other got arbitration over less than $300,000. Man, I’m glad Hill won the case.

by Chris Pendley on Feb 7, 2009 5:33 PM EST reply actions

Having followed Hill since he was in Montreal's system, I've been really disappointed by his struggles...

…but I agree, if you think he can contribute why haggle over $275,000…

…after reading the Baseball Prospectus article i linked yesterday, the difference in what they’d give Hill vs Cabrera is even more dramatic…either one could have his arm fall off, but when healthy, Hill’s a much better pitcher even if Cabrera has more raw talent…

I’ll bite, I’m just getting into the new(to me) age of stats, tRA???

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 7, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Lookout Landing will describe it better than I ever will.

But the idea is that tRA is what FIP was originally intended for. It’s intended to be a true measure of how a pitcher would perform with everything neutralized (I think). Check there for more explanation; the guys who developed it write over there.

by Chris Pendley on Feb 7, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

By sheer coincidence I read a Lookout Landing article after your initial post...

…which linked to a USS Mariner article by Dave Cameron entitled, “Evaluating Pitcher Talent”, which is probably the best argument/explanation I’ve read, and is basically what you’re describing…which makes complete sense, honestly, as you’re judging the pitcher’s performance alone, regardless of how it’s affected by others on the field…(I think, laughs)

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 8, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that's the idea.

There’s also tRA* which is adjusted for park effects (I think), but one step at a time. :) It’s a solid metric; the Mariner crew seems to be at the forefront of the amateur stat development tree.

by Chris Pendley on Feb 8, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I can understand the difference.

The cost of a FA win is greater than the cost of a self-developed win, so understandably Cabrera’s contract is more than Hill’s. However, Cabrera hasn’t really improved much since reaching the majors; I like his reduction in BB from last year, but the cost was severe (not the least of which was the neutering of his only weapon).

Hill’s main problem has been injuries; while we’re probably not going to see an improvement on that front, he hasn’t shown a real decline in his raw stats yet. As such, I’m fine with paying him; heck, I’m wiling to say he’ll contribute more than Cabrera will this year (provided he’s starting).

by Chris Pendley on Feb 7, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

Do you want Hill, or Jason Bergmann, or Odalis Perez...

…starting over the young pitchers though, like Shairon Martis, Zimmermann, etc, or would you rather go full steam ahead with the youth movement and let the kids get over their growing pains in the Majors while the team isn’t winning Wild Cards, Divisions or eventually Leagues?

As for Cabrera, I was as convinced as anyone that Leo Mazzone would set him straight when the former Braves’ Pitching Coach went to Baltimore, but when that didn’t happen, i lost enthusiasm for his talents and settled on watching him occassionally embarass Yankee batters out of the corner of my eye while I watched the Nationals…Hill I haven’t given up hope on yet…

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 8, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

How many of the young crew is ready for the big-time, though?

Martis has 40 innings at AAA. Zimmermann hasn’t seen any time at AAA. Why do we need to start their service clocks now when there’s no guarantee they’ll be ready? I have no problem with a youth movement provided they’re even close to ready; however, I’d say Battlestar’s the only guy who’s ready so far (Martis may be ready at midseason). I don’t see the need to start burning service clocks when the team isn’t going anywhere. In the meantime, you’ll need some random schlubs like Bergmann and Perez to start.

I wouldn’t put Hill in that group; he’s a quality pitcher when healthy. His problem’s been health, not talent.

by Chris Pendley on Feb 8, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed on Hill...that darn forearm nerve...

I don’t know if Zimmermann and Martis are ready, but all I’ve read is that Washington plans on having at least Zimmermann in the rotation, or at least that it’s his spot to lose heading into Spring Training…maybe the DC FO is just trying to encourage him…I wouldn’t take Martis’ late season call-up as a sign he’ll stay in DC, after all, Detwiler was up two years ago in September, and he’s a long, longshot to make the Nationals this season…

I’m just happy Washngton’s choosing five from about 10 pitchers rather than having three starters and looking for 2 out of 30 like they have in previous Springs….

Battlestar! (laughs)…

"Nothin' wrong with my leg, I'm just B-boy limpin'" - MCA

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 8, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions