"The Book" and the Nationals

by PhDBrian on Mar 29, 2009 6:16 PM EDT

The book, as it's called, looks at baseball lineups and tries to determine what is the most important stat for each spot using scientific methods. The book counters conventional wisdom and is controversial in this way. To the Book the most important hitting spot in a lineup is the leadoff spot and the most important attribute is on base percentage and least important is power. Speed is far less important than on base percentage. The second most important lineup spot is the #2 hitter, the next most important is the #4 hitter, #5, then #3. The #3 hitter is not that important, as they are the most likely hitter near the top of the lineup to come to the plate with two out and no one on. Most teams waste a very good hitter in this less important spot. Steals are shown to be more important in front of light-hitting singles hitters, so you want the most speed in the 6 hole. Steals are wasted in front of power.

So with this Book in mind I thought it might be fun to make a lineup for the NAts using the details in The Book.

Leadoff Nick Johnson. He is incredably hard to get out. Although he has more power and a little less speed than the Book feels this spot needs. His on base percentage is ungodly and that trumps anything else.

#2 Dukes. He has very good on base skills and good speed. Plus he looks like he will turn into a hard out you want at the top of your lineup.

#3 Guzman good hitter but is not awesome. The extra base hits are very nice. Plus, he helps Dukes' speed score more often.

#4 Dunn you want a ton of power, and a guy who is hard to get out here.

#5 Zimmerman should be a power hitter since this spot bats with guys on all the time.

#6 Millage. The book says the #6 spot is the most critical spot to have speed and he is an ok hitter to boot.

#7 Flores

#8 Pitcher

#9 Hernandez/ Belliard

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Comments

I believe in The Book!

I can’t argue with anything there. I also like a little power in the leadoff, as those late inning rallies, when you finally get a bottom of the order guy on (PH for the pitcher, etc.), the odds of getting a double rather than a string of singles and at least avoiding the DP to end it seem more likely to me.
Zim would have been a #5 hitter on most teams, I really like Dukes at #2, and Lasto is not a leadoff hitter. PhDBrian for bench coach!

by cat daddy3000 on Mar 30, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

You flatter me more than I deserve

by PhDBrian on Mar 31, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I always read your nick as PhDBrain.......

by cat daddy3000 on Mar 31, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

now you mock me

Its ok I deserve it

by PhDBrian on Mar 31, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

No, not mocked... I think one can only get MOCK'd!!! around here, and that's different....

by cat daddy3000 on Mar 31, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Nick Johnson........ his bat, she is frightened by The Book......

Why, Nick, whyyyyyy? Now Leadoff Lasto will live forever………

by cat daddy3000 on Mar 30, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

Was the Book written before or after Tony LaRussa started hitting pitchers 8th?

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 30, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

i'd guess

if since TLR started hitting pitchers last year and the book has Dunn in there for the nats, i’d probably be after.

But hitting the pitcher 8th is a good idea if you have a guy with good OBP in the 9 spot, that makes your 9,1,2,3 order turn into a 1,2,3,4 order (this is also a fact that TLR likes batting a guy with power in the 2-hole which would work great with Dukes batting 2nd and Johnson 3rd IMO)

Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.
OHHH YEAHHHH!!!!!!!

by cardwash on Apr 1, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions

There reluctant to move Zimmerman from that 3-hole, where would you put Zim?

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Apr 1, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Zimm 5th, but third is not bad.

But that hurts the more vital 5th spot. The most RBI intensive spot per at bat.

by PhDBrian on Apr 2, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Well the idea of batting the pitcher 8th goes back a while

but, I think “The Book” is only a couple of years old.

by PhDBrian on Mar 31, 2009 12:51 AM EDT reply actions

LaRussa

did bat pitchers 8th back in 1998 or 1999 for a month or so at the end of the season

Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.
OHHH YEAHHHH!!!!!!!

by cardwash on Apr 1, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions

One of the cooler points of the book

On average a leadoff double results in more runs per inning on than a leadoff homer (all else being equal). Nearly every hitter hits with a much higher average with a runner on second, its usually the situation every hitter is at his best. meanwhile, most hitters hit with their lowest average with no one on in front of them. Although a leadoff homer gets you one sure run and the double does not (most score though), because of the hitting situation following the leadoff hit the homer is much less likely to result in a multiple run inning than a leadoff double. So on average a leadoff double is worth more runs per inning than a leadoff homer.

by PhDBrian on Mar 31, 2009 1:13 AM EDT reply actions

Even old-schooler Frank Robinson knew this bit...

“A double is a run,” was apparently one of his aphorisms. In this case, a double is slightly more than a run!

“The Book”, of course, is SABR-dancer Tom Tango’s magesterial work on how to use the numbers to play the game better.

"We’re all neighbors in NatsTown™!" --NNN

by Doghouse on Mar 31, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Yep Tango is pretty cool

You know I have played fantasy baseball longer than most. Started in the late 80s. But I never dreamed it could turn into a career or a job. Then one day I look around and normal dudes are making 6 figures working for ESPN as fantasy analyst. Others are writing real cool books on the stats of baseball. I guess I am not very brite afterall.

Really like this site though. I need my Nats fix living here in Mwemphis.

by PhDBrian on Mar 31, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions

i like the irony

in spelling bright wrong

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

Good ol' KO

by thecoolest on Apr 2, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Leadoff Lasto Milledge's philosophy.........

"……when it comes to batting first is to swing the bat as opposed to working counts and looking for walks. "

[Since being crowned leadoff hitter] Milledge has gone 4-for-34 with just one run scored as his batting average has dipped from .282 to .224. He believes he is having bad luck at the plate." -Ladson

Wow, is there another book where this makes sense? We need two chickens or something?

by cat daddy3000 on Apr 1, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

Sorry Lasto is not that good right now

Maybe a year of watching Dunn and Johnson rather than Cristian will change his role models.

by PhDBrian on Apr 2, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

The media silence on Eckstein's opinion of Lasto is deafening.......

Yet Dukes get abandoned by Acta for stats that don’t count…

by cat daddy3000 on Apr 2, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Guzman strikes out once every 11 or 12 PAs

With his speed he can decent results from putting lots of balls in play. But Millage strikes out once every 6 PAs so he has little chance of getting decent results simply because he does not put enough balls in play. He needs another way to get on base.

by PhDBrian on Apr 2, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions