Ryan Zimmerman vs. Edwin Encarnacion
In a column at Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci writes about Ryan Zimmerman's new contract. He compares Zimmerman to Reds 3B Edwin Encarnacion, writing the following:
How much real value is there to being considered "the face of the franchise?" If you said $38.4 million, you understand the difference between Edwin Encarnacion of the Reds and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals. They were born a year apart. Both are third baseman. Both made their big-league debuts in 2005. Both have between three and four years of service time. Both signed multi-year contracts within the past two months. Both have a career OPS within .002 of 800. Want more similarities?
Verducci lists some of each player's offensive stats, and they are quite similar. According to Fangraphs, Zimmerman was worth 24.7 batting runs above average from 2006-2008, while Encarnacion was worth 25.7. He then writes this:
Now check out their new contracts:
Zimmerman: Five years, $45 million.
Encarnacion: Two years, $7.6 million.
Something seemed a little fishy here, as Zimmerman is renowned for his glove, both by advanced stats and scouts, while my perception of Encarnacion's defense is that it sucks. Is there any way these two players could be so similar and paid so differently? I looked at the advanced stats UZR and +/- to compare each player's defense:
| Player | Year | UZR | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Zimmerman | 2006 | 4.1 | +2 |
| 2007 | 17.4 | +21 | |
| 2008 | 2.1 | +10 | |
| 23.6 | +33 | ||
| Edwin Encarnacion | 2006 | -9.4 | -15 |
| 2007 | -11.7 | -15 | |
| 2008 | -9.8 | -21 | |
| -30.9 | -51 |
Do the math, and that's a 54 run swing according to UZR, and an 84 play swing per +/-. This is significant. Using the standard of 10 runs/win, that's a 5.4 win difference from defense alone (using UZR) or a difference of 6.7 wins (using +/-, calculating runs saved as 80% of plays). Needless to say, their win values according to Fangraphs over the last 3 seasons are not similar. Zimmerman checks in at 11.3 wins, while Encarnacion has 5.3. That's an average of 2 wins per year more for Zimmerman, which means he has been far more valuable than Encarnacion during his brief career.
I appreciate Verducci using stats to back up his assertions (he even drops an OPS+ reference in his column) but defense must be factored in when evaluating a player's overall value. For a better take on the Zimmerman contract, check out this quick piece by Matthew Carruth.
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10 comments
Comments
#'s vs. everything else
I think if you took this deal and had no name attached like Player A and Player B, then you would not think the Zimmerman deal is the best deal ever.
But I guess from a Nats fan perspective its a good one, there is always the “face of the franchise” perspective which I don’t totally buy in to b/c you might be getting a new one come June (Strasburg). But Zim does seem to be well liked by fellow players, he recruited Dunn, and he is really popular with the fans and the community. Go to Cincy (I have) and you won’t see too many Encarnacion fans around. I think it would have been better to wait until the end of the season b/c you would have more leverage from a negotiating stand point for the club.
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 21, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
P.S. I'm a Mets fan
but Nats supporter (when they’re not playing the Mets). I’m not as enamored with the deal as Matthew Carruth from Fangraphs is, but it’s not terrible. Agreed, I would’ve liked to wait and see what he did this season.
by James Kannengieser on Apr 21, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zim is worth it if he plays ever year like he did as a rookie or better
But his numbers have regressed. It is weird but guys who play close to where they grew up just seem to have trouble being real good for any length of time. Some are solid, but they never turn out to be superstars. So Zim is overpaid, but not a bunch, plus I like the guy and the owners are Billionaires, so more power to him.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Apr 22, 2009 1:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think he’s worth the money. He is a better player than Edwin, as you’ve pointed out, and yes his Washington area popularity probably inflates his value a little. A few long-term contracts will be good for the team. It seems like our retention rate is pretty low. I don’t know if anyone has actual stats on the Nats turnover rate but I would say most casual fans would have trouble naming the players year to year.
Excellent fanpost btw.
by Graven Image on Apr 22, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Verducci's a bit of a dummy.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at Nats News Network on Apr 23, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I think numbers aside, most Nats fans will tell you that Zim can do much better with the bat than he has. I think the potential is there and that’s also what the front office thought.
I’ve only really liked Verducci for bagging Bonds.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on Apr 23, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Verducci is more tolerable
than any hack that espn parades out there
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm I saw this article too, and thought it failed to look at a few aspects:
Those being that Zimmerman is one of the better defensive 3B in the NL Encarnacion is one of the worst.
EE plays in a very hitter friendly park, RZ plays in a pitcher friendly park.
And the point that RZ has the potential to be a star in MLB.
I think the contract may have slightly overpayed him but it wont ever be included in a list of worst contracts ever…and if he manages to put it together offensively again it will look like a great move.
And enough cant be said for having a young star player as the face of your team.
by Ohpityme on Apr 26, 2009 6:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lets not waste our time
zimmerman is so much better than edwin. thats not even a debate. zim is a really good 3rd baseman. hes going to get back to where he was. edwin has nowhere to go but down from here.
I GOT MY STREET BUZZ BEFORE I GOT MY PEACH FUZZ
by omar moreno on Apr 29, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you are the real Omar moreno
I would like to thank you for helping me win my first Status Pro Major league baseball championship a real long time ago! If you do not know, that was a some what realistic baseball game using baseball card stats. A board game like the video games before the baseball video game was invented. I won my college championship (40 teams) using 1979 season cards but in 1983. You were my CF and stole home for the championship game winning run!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on May 3, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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