To trade NJ, or not to trade NJ. That is the Q.
by Mezza on Apr 23, 2009 11:11 PM EDT
50 comments
I read this on the Washington Post's Q&A section with Thomas Boswell and thought it was well worth the discussion here.
Washington, D.C.: Should the Natinals trade Nick Johnson well before the trading deadline (as along as he remains off the disabled list)? He's doing great right now, and might fetch some nice prospects.
Tom Boswell: This is the right question. And a tough call. He's 10th in MLB in batting right now (.380) and will seldom be more tradeable. Physically, he looks 100%.
But if you trade him, you only have Dunn and Guzman (switch) as LH hitters. The Nats also want to rebound from their bad start and get their fans interested again. And they still have a chance to do it with the starting pitching now looking much better. Just get the bullpen to be decent.
Still, the long-term move is to trade Johnson when you can get peak value, move Dunn to 1st base and put Willingham in LF. It will be one of Rizzo's biggest calls of the season.
Nick has had a great start to the season, is healthy and doing what we all love (which is hit line drives and have a monster OBP). But given we probably wont win it all this season (it's hard to accept...even for me in April), do we cash in now with a player in his final contract year (in July)? Or do we hold on tight and make him a piece of the puzzle in years to come (and hope the injuries are the thing of the past)?
For the record I agree that it's probably one of Rizzo's biggest calls this season...
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The Natinals...Boswell's funny...
My guess with Hammer, Kearns and Johnson has been that they’d have to prove they were healthy before any deal would get done…Hammer hasn’t played enough to show anyone anything really, except that he has great anger management skills…Kearns is healthy, and with the exception of one massive grand slam, his bat’s not back…which brings us to “Two-Spot” Johnson…the line-drive hitting, slick fielding first baseman…I have to agree, his value probably hasn’t been higher since the Expos acquired him…if you wait and he does end up injured…then what have you got?
DO NOT TRADE NICK JOHNSON…(Unless there’s a lights-out closer/closing prospect out there…)
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd thought you might say that.
;)
I have to say I’d pull the trigger if the prospect included a gun middle infielder with speed and great OBP/lead off potential.
Guzman might have 1-2 seasons left in the tank and Ronnie B/Hernandez are capable but not brillant.
Relievers can be brought (by in large) and in some cases, made.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on Apr 24, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two Thoughts...
I love what Nick’s doing in Manny’s two hole….but normally first basemen are power hitters and not table setters. We’re lucky to have a Dunn, Dukes and Zimm to get him over and in. Just thinking…not really opining.
I think Belliard may be, um, close to the end. It’s been a couple days since I’ve seen him but all I remember are errors and swinging for the fences but striking out. I know…it’s early, but he needs to bring it around. Maybe he shouldn’t have cut off his trademark hair braids.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Apr 24, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that really matter
Marlins have the vest record in the NL and play Gloud regularly at first. Nick outhomers Gloud anyday!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Apr 25, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Realistically, though, Johnson is 30, in the last year of his contract, and injury prone. The odds he’s going to be around and healthy when the Nationals are competitive aren’t very good. In terms of overall asset management, it’s probably better for the team to move Johnson for younger players.
by David M. Getz on Apr 24, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Nick had never gone on the DL for his whole contract ...
and this being his last year of that contract. He would be traded. Why? Because at his age he is not part of the future; his only a bridge from this line up to the next. I love me some Nick don’t get me wrong, but he’s value as a trade piece can never be higher than now. Like Ed eluded you’ve got to get prospects in return. Middle infielders , heavy hitting 1b type or closer or 8th inning type arms. In any case no matter how good he make this line up look, no matter how we like him as a player he’s got to go. if he was a prized property on boardwalk which has been flooded out three years in a row and the forecast was for clear skys for the forseen future. You fix up the property to sell and you put it out on the market and sell it pronto. Amen, goodnight don’t stop the presses. The heart can’t be a part of the equation. He’s a great character on the team. We’ve fallen for his game, but unless his part of the future he has to be a piece given up for it.
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With this said, any player not in future plans is a pawn to move. Belly, Dunn, Harris, Guzman...
Pick one and move it till it’s checkmate time.
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn's not going anywhere
Unless its an incredible offer. Heard the ChiSox would like to have Harris back, along with the Cards wanting Belliard back. I love Guzz but I don’t see his stock being very high either unless there is an injury down the road on a team in contention.
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And what you've said is all I'm saying. You got to leave it open.
Dunn may be young enough to keep, but with his fielding problems he may be better suited for the AL over the NL. Why knows? Our farm systems doesn’t have a player with his type of power. Burgess is one that’s close his comparison, but isn’t handling AA pitching, yet. We’ll see. Player mangement is very hit or miss, eh.
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Resign him as his value will be higher next year.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Apr 25, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep Him
He is playing great right now, but still his stock isn’t that high, so I say lets gameble with him and see if that stock can continue to rise getting closer to the deadline…
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Than he gets hurt and then.....
Pop goes the weasel before weasel goes pop…
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
roll the dice
thats why i’m saying we take a gamble on him this year until it gets closer to the deadline, playing it safe you would trade him now and not get very much back, the longer we wait and the more we keep gambling the higher his stock will rise
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You did not go Third Base on us...did you Bern?
Give em the gas face.
ha
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Apr 24, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Gas Face...? Very late 80's of you...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next comes the stink finger.
Like they say in “Puttin’ on the Ritz”
Anything goes!!!
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade him
to the Mariners for Jarrod Washburn. The M’s need left-handed offense and can’t keep first basemen healthy…Washington needs pitching. Washburn looks to have improved his game (though he won’t keep his ERA that low all year) and the M’s would like to shed his salary.
The Nationals will be better off with Willingham’s or Kearns’ defense and bat in the outfield, than they are with Johnson’s bat and Dunn’s defense in the outfield. Dunn’s defense has cost the team nearly half what his bat has produced, so just by moving him to first base he becomes a more valuable player. And the complaint about Kearns’ bat is misplaced…his wOBA is currently .390 which makes him worth nearly as much as Johnson (.395 wOBA) on the offensive side of the ball. If he keeps this up all year and plays outfield defense every day, the Nationals will be better than they are today.
Add a shiny new left-handed starter to the team and the Nats are better still.
by short on Apr 24, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What is Seattle's fascination with former Expos/Nationals? Vidro, Guillen, Wilkerson...and now Roy Corcoran...Yeah, I remember him...
Seriously though, what have you got in young pitching prospects, the Nationals aren’t going to add any veteran arms, (I don’t think), or they would have this offseason. How about pitching prospects or young middle infielders…Someone who’s a stereotypical leadoff guy in terms of an infielder? And don’t you dare say Endy Chavez…(I knew there was someone else with a DC past that’s who I was looking for)…I still think Dunn at first is a disaster, and will cost the pitchers and other Nationals’ fielders quite a few runs…but the trade Johnson tide is rising…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea no vet pitchers
they were talking about kicking the tires on pedro today, but rizzo shot that down real quick
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Bowden...? Totally would've signed Pedro...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would have signed him for three years...
Nothing like a 40yr old pitcher, eh…
by Berndaddy on Apr 24, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are we going to do with Washburn?
He has been better this year but why would we want him. Our future is Zimmermann, Lannan, Martis, Ballester, and Strasburg (or throw in Detweiler wherever you want). Washburn isn’t filling any need except another back end, washed up starter taking up a spot.
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1...Show us some prospects, Short!!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson won't get you prospects
One year of Nick “Is he on the DL yet?” Johnson won’t get you prospects from anyone. (Well…not good ones anyway.) Not with his salary and injury history. This would be a move to get better for this season, period. Washburn might be flipped again at the deadline, or offered arbitration to receive a draft pick when he signs next season. You might be able to get one of of Seattle’s raft of right-handed relievers in the deal, though, since Washburn makes $4.3 million more than Johnson. You likey Aardsma or Lowe?
One question I have from the Nat’s perspective is…can Dunn play first base. If not…then moving him doesn’t help your defense improve. I still can’t believe he didn’t sign with an AL team.
by short on Apr 24, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like Dunn at first...AT ALL. Like I said above, he will cost the team more than he helps them...
…with his super impressive home runs…(alright, some of them are impressive, but he’s hit 4, DC’s 3-11)…I think our stat man Doghouse has the numbers on Dunn at first, and it cost the Nationals quite a bit…
…And no AL team wanted Dunn, I guess Jays’ GM JP Ricciardi’s opinion (and not his later “I don’t even know the guy” retraction) is what set the story on Dunn…lazy, doesn’t like to play, etc….from my perspective he waited until he was sure no one else was offering more than Washington (and the #‘s DC was offering even “leaked” before he signed…as a sort of desperate last minute…"Someone please beat this offer so I don’t have to go DC" sort of thing…) and then Dunn joined the Nationals…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
keep the big guy in the outfield, we do not need him fumbling around at first…
but just having johnson at first is a lot more valuable for the Nats then Washburn in the rotation
804 Nats Fan
by pas493 on Apr 24, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I've got noooo interest in Washburn now...7 years ago...maybe...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I think you're right about the return on Johnson, unfortunately, I think that's why Bowden never dealt him...
DC and their fans, probably think more of him after watching him when he does play than others who just see the total games played do…but it seems like each time there was talk of trading Johnson no one was offering anything impressive…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a big power hitter
His contribution involves high OBA and plus defense rather than big power numbers…not what sells teams on first basemen. I think our front office will see Nick’s value better than most.
by short on Apr 24, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any team that had Olerud all those years should recognize his value...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 24, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I have to say is...
DO NOT TRADE NICK JOHNSON!!! He has both glove and bat, and because of his injuries you wont get full value for him. You do not sell low!!!! That is a bad idea. Resign him for one year. Once he gives you two full seasons then he will be a type A player and we will get fair value in return. Trading him now is trading low
Feel free to trade anyone else not named Zimmerman(n)
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Apr 25, 2009 1:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Every time I read of people proposing trades for someone's hope-giving prospects...
I’m reminded of this somewhat awkward metaphor…….
Homer: Lisa honey, are you saying you’re never going to eat any animal again? What about bacon?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Ham?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Pork chops?
Lisa: Dad! Those all come from the same animal!
Homer: [Chuckles] Yeah, right Lisa. A wonderful, magical animal.
There is no wonderful, magical animal…… just someone else’s ham, same as what we already got…….
"...the bases loaded failures were the reason, the only reason..."
"Let's just move back to Montreal and forget the last 5 years ever
happened"............- e chigliak
by cat daddy3000 on Apr 25, 2009 2:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Simpson anecdotes are welcome here.
This is SOOO Nats…
Burns: Wait! You, Strawberry! Good effort today. Take a lap and hit the showers – I’m putting in a right-handed batter to hit for you.
Smithers: What?!
Strawberry: You’re pinch-hitting for me?
Burns: Yes. You see, you’re a left-hander and so is the pitcher. If I send up a right-handed batter, it’s called “playing the percentages”. It’s what smart managers do to win ball games.
Strawberry: But I’ve got nine home runs today!
Burns: And you should be very proud of yourself. Sit down. [to Homer, who’s on the bench] Simpson, you’re batting for Strawberry!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on Apr 25, 2009 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A CLASSIC example of a manager playing to have an excuse for failure by pointing to "conventional wisdom".
I believe even Frank did that, even when the LHB had better splits against the LHP, than the RHB he replaced him with…….
"...the bases loaded failures were the reason, the only reason..."
"Let's just move back to Montreal and forget the last 5 years ever
happened"............- e chigliak
by cat daddy3000 on Apr 25, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mezza, thought you might like to know that your discussion thread...
…started a discussion thread at the SBN’s Mariners blog, Lookout Landing.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 25, 2009 2:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"There's really someone who posts under the screenname "e chigliak?" by I'm NOT Corco
heh heh…
"...the bases loaded failures were the reason, the only reason..."
"Let's just move back to Montreal and forget the last 5 years ever
happened"............- e chigliak
by cat daddy3000 on Apr 25, 2009 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Apr 25, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, glad you don't run this place like "Lookout Landing", with its rather severe posting style requirements.
I’d hate to be banned for typin’ a little colloquially, throwin’ in a few too many apostrophes, or my random British spelling affectations…….
And, I must have my elipses………..
"...the bases loaded failures were the reason, the only reason..."
"Let's just move back to Montreal and forget the last 5 years ever
happened"............- e chigliak
by cat daddy3000 on Apr 25, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Thanks all – the debate is healthy and as much as NJ is a big part of the team i suspect we’ll be talking about this for some time.
Keep it all up and coming.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on Apr 25, 2009 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Must.. not.. make.. "debate healthier than NJ" joke...
"It's pretty much all garbage time right now." --ROSCOEtheNATSfan
by Doghouse on Apr 26, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Nats wont get anything of value for Nick Johnson…based purely on his injury filled past(Possibly present and future)so in my opinion he is far more valuable staying in Washington.
by Ohpityme on Apr 26, 2009 6:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont know why you think that...
If he is healthy by July and putting up numbers ppl will be keen.
I’m sure they already are. It’s not like he is a pitcher with a blown arm. We’re talking about a productive 1st baseman who is one of the better OBP in baseball. Im sure that if he is firing on all cyclinders by July there would be some good deals to have.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on Apr 26, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not good enough deals for me to watch the Big Donkey play first
Honestly, we are not going to win this year, but we are much closer than our record shows. Nick will be worth far more in a year than he is now. We are talking about a guy who is harder to get out for his career than every first basemen in the game but Pujols. He has had time off that has taken some of his power away, but after a year of playing that 25-30 home run power will have returned. Then he will be among the top 5 first basemen in all of baseball if not top 3. I believe absolutley that had Nick played 160 games in any of the last three seasons he would have finished top 3 in the MVP voting. He is that good!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Apr 30, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point.
I think the fact that Dunn is such a terrible defender pretty much means NJ will likely stay.
Unless of course, part of the trade deal includes a defensive 1st baseman…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
by Mezza on May 1, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We've got a solid defensive firstbasemen one named Kasto
Kasto is a plus defender at 3rd and first. But, despite being super patient and only swinging for his pitches, he gets nothing out of his contact worth a darn. So he will bat .around .250 slug .310 and onbase .330. Not worth your time at first unles you already have a 6 run lead.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on May 3, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need a solid defensive firstbasemen who can Hit!
NJ is the man for at least another year if you ask me. Unless he starts asking for to much money, but I doubt it. he has to feel like he owes the team something for all that time on the DL.
Plus we have so many defensive issues on this team we need every glove of average or better quality we can get.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on May 3, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brought to you by the DC Don't Trade Nick Johnson Committee
Proud sponsor of Federal Baseball! (Needless to say, +1!)
"It's pretty much all garbage time right now." --ROSCOEtheNATSfan
by Doghouse on May 3, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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