Tuesday Nats Stats: What's up with Dunn's batting splits?
Does Adam Dunn really hit worse when he plays RF than when he plays LF? Here's a quick-and-dirty look based on a thread comment that was getting waaaay too long.
Okay, here are Dunn's overall batting lines:
Career- 248/383/520, 131 OPS+, 13.85 HR/AB, 16.9% walk rate, 1.6 K/BB
He's a slugger. Low average, hits dingers, walks a lot, and strikes out even more. This we know. What's he done, season-to-date?
2009- 286/425/579, 157 OPS+, 12.09 HR/AB, 19.8% walk rate, 1.2 K/BB
Looks like Dunn's having a career season. He's added 40 points of BA, slightly increased his walk rate, while holding down his Ks and still hitting the long balls. Frankly, it's more than I ever expected we'd get from Dunn. There might be some regression to the mean over the rest of the season, but that's a heck of a start. Of course, keep in mind that those numbers only cover 167 PA.
Alright, what happens when we split out his time in RF vs time in LF? Our 2009 sample size is even smaller here, but the raw-numbers-to-be-taken-with-a-grain-of-salt are:
LF- (91 PA) 333/495/725, 198 OPS+, 8.6 AB/HR, 24% BB, 0.9 K/BB
RF- (57 PA) 235/298/412, 81 OPS+, 25.5 AB/HR, 8.8% BB, 3.2 K/BB
1B- (18 PA) 250/500/500, 140 OPS+, 12 AB/HR, 50% BB, 0.7 K/BB
Dunn goes from league-killer to league-lagger if you put him in RF instead of 1B/LF. WTH? That makes no sense. Is it the sample size? Let's take a look at his career splits:
LF- (4009 PA) 250/381/527, 132 OPS+, 13.6 AB/HR, 16.5% BB, 1.6 K/BB
RF- (376 PA) 245/383/448, 113 OPS+, 21.9 AB/HR, 17.3% BB, 1.4 K/BB
1B- (455 PA) 224/396/501, 131 OPS+, 13.1 AB/HR, 20.6% BB, 1.2 K/BB
Bizarrely, his career numbers seem to support worse hitting in RF vs LF/1B. What could explain this? Let's take a look at his career platoon splits:
vs RHP: 253/394/542, 140 OPS+, 13.0 AB/HR, 18.1% BB, 1.4 K/BB
vs LHP: 237/359/475, 111 OPS+, 16.0 AB/HR, 14.2% BB, 2.1 K/BB
Well, hmm... Dunn doesn't hit the lefties as well, and that performance looks slightly worse vs LHP than it does in RF, but not by much. Could it be platoon advantage, if he only ends up in RF when there's a lefty on the hill (or at least, more often when there's a lefty pitching)?
After a bit of fiddling with baseball-reference's event finder, I found that his PA vs LHP by position were 1241(LF), 175(1B), and 106 (RF).
That means as a LF, 30.9% of his PA were vs LHP as a 1B, 38.5% of his PA were vs LHP, and in RF, 28.2% of his PA were vs LHP.
WTH?
That's right, he faces more righties (whom he crushes, by his career splits) as a RF, but he still bats about 15% below his career average! I'll stay that again: on average, Dunn gets more platoon advantage when he's played in RF, but his hitting falls off! Having to remember to hit a different cutoff man seems to adversely effect his pitch selection, or something. (And before you say, "what about home/away splits," I took a quick look, and they're too small to account for the difference, even if he only played RF on the road.)
Now, it's possible I made a stupid arithmetic error, but this result just seems... goofy. It's also possible that's it's an artifact of random chance and a relatively small sample--even 376 PA isn't that many (a bit over half of a season). What could explain this? I welcome your speculation in the comments.
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+1!!!!!!!!!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on May 19, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
With Dunn in LEFT??? Am I asking too much?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on May 19, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Just saw the headline at MASN online.......... I suppose there'll be other moves then..,
"We can’t get any worse." ...-Lyin' Joe Beimel
"What's in the flask, Egg......magic potion?"
by cat daddy3000 on May 19, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn-Maxwell-Kearns for the weekend.........
Not an OF that I would have ever imagined for May 20th… Hopefully, Maxwell keeps the job and Dukes comes back as the permanent RF.
"We can’t get any worse." ...-Lyin' Joe Beimel
"What's in the flask, Egg......magic potion?"
by cat daddy3000 on May 20, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the comprehensive analysis on the Dunn Conundrum......
Perhaps it’s empathy for his fellow RFers and does not want to pull the ball and potentially embarass them.
Whatever it is, it’s permanent and he must play LF…
"We can’t get any worse." ...-Lyin' Joe Beimel
"What's in the flask, Egg......magic potion?"
Agree....
Why can’t Willingham play RF?
i know he hasn’t , but his bat and his fielding don’t compensate for Dunn’s drop-off at the plate.
Hey, remember Frank Howard made a LF’er out of Soriano.
From what I've read, he just never has and doesn't want to embarrass himself...
Dunn is apparently impervious to embarrassment…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on May 19, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Just like Will Ferrell...
…it’s among both his most endearing and aggravating qualities…
"We are all jinxers in NatsTown™." --cat daddy3000
If the Nats can't look at these stats and tell Josh that if he wants to play, he plays RF, then something is wrong with their management.
"We can’t get any worse." ...-Lyin' Joe Beimel
"What's in the flask, Egg......magic potion?"
by cat daddy3000 on May 19, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

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