…that is, stuff like WAR and Pythag assume you do about the same in both high-leverage (late in the game, close score) and low-leverage (early in the game, blowouts) situations. What if the Nats are the opposite of teh clutch? We’ve already seen that they seem to lose close games disproportionately. Of course, trying to include leverage in a stat analysis makes it all much, much harder—and it kind of assumes ‘clutchness’ is more than luck, which is whole ‘nother can of worms. In the near term, i think I’ll take a whack at the situation run expectancy matrix that Graysnail was talking about… time to brush up the SQL skills!