Who won't be around next season?
by John Quinn on Jul 16, 2009 10:38 AM EDT
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PrintHere's the current Nationals roster; names in bold are those I think will be traded, names in italics are those I think will be optioned downward, and those both italicized and bolded are players that I don't think will be around one way or another.
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Active Roster | ||||||
| Pitchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB | |||
| 97 Joe Beimel | L/L | 6-3 | 215 | 04/19/77 | |||
| 57 Jason Bergmann | R/R | 6-3 | 220 | 09/25/81 | |||
| 17 Sean Burnett | L/L | 6-1 | 200 | 09/17/82 | |||
| 36 Tyler Clippard | R/R | 6-3 | 200 | 02/14/85 | |||
| 31 John Lannan | L/L | 6-4 | 215 | 09/27/84 | |||
| 54 Mike MacDougal | S/R | 6-4 | 190 | 03/05/77 | |||
| 4 Garrett Mock | R/R | 6-3 | 230 | 04/25/83 | |||
| 19 Scott Olsen | L/L | 6-4 | 210 | 01/12/84 | |||
| 35 Craig Stammen | R/R | 6-3 | 210 | 03/09/84 | |||
| 50 Julian Tavarez | L/R | 6-2 | 195 | 05/22/73 | |||
| 41 Ron Villone | L/L | 6-3 | 245 | 01/16/70 | |||
| 27 Jordan Zimmermann | R/R | 6-2 | 220 | 05/23/86 | |||
| Catchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB | |||
| 7 Josh Bard | S/R | 6-3 | 225 | 03/30/78 | |||
| 23 Wil Nieves | R/R | 5-10 | 180 | 09/25/77 | |||
| Infielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB | |||
| 10 Ronnie Belliard | R/R | 5-10 | 210 | 04/07/75 | |||
| 12 Alberto Gonzalez | R/R | 5-10 | 195 | 04/18/83 | |||
| 15 Cristian Guzman | S/R | 6-0 | 210 | 03/21/78 | |||
| 6 Anderson Hernandez | S/R | 5-9 | 185 | 10/30/82 | |||
| 24 Nick Johnson | L/L | 6-3 | 235 | 09/19/78 | |||
| 11 Ryan Zimmerman | R/R | 6-3 | 230 | 09/28/84 | |||
| Outfielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB | |||
| 44 Adam Dunn | L/R | 6-6 | 285 | 11/09/79 | |||
| 22 Willie Harris | L/R | 5-9 | 190 | 06/22/78 | |||
| 25 Austin Kearns | R/R | 6-3 | 245 | 05/20/80 | |||
| 1 Nyjer Morgan | L/L | 6-0 | 175 | 07/02/80 | |||
| 16 Josh Willingham | R/R | 6-2 | 215 | 02/17/79 | |||
What do you think?
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We will never see Tavarez, Villone, Beimel, and MacDougal again. On the field I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the catchers were not back, AK and Belliard are definately gone, sounds like today that NJ is going, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Willie Harris not come back next year, one way or another.
I would like to see the Nats lineup look like this opening day
SP- Lannan
SP- Zimmermann
SP- Garland/Harden
SP- Olsen
SP- Martis or Stammen
BP- Strasburg
BP- Detwieler
BP- Burnett
BP- Mock
BP-???
SU- Storen
CL- Rodney
C- Flores, Schneider
1B- Blalock
2B- Figgins, Hernandez
3B- Zim
SS- Guzman, Gonzo
OF- Morgan, Dunn, Dukes, Bernadina, Maxwell
I don’t know about the pitching alignment there. I’d have to think it’s better for the long term development of Strasburg and Detweiler to have them in the rotation rather than the pen. And let’s be honest: long term development is what matters most right now (including next season).
I’d also have to think that if the Nationals picked up a guy like Harden or Garland he’d be higher in the rotation than Zimmermann, but that’s just splitting hairs.
Garland is garbage, but Harden would be nice. I don’t see Strasburg or Detwiler in the ML Pen at any point next year (SP somewhere, whether it’s ML or the minors). I also don’t think it would be smart to trust Storen as a set-up guy so soon. On the right track, though, most would be decent fits!
by thehoagster07 on Jul 16, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i think the bullpen
is one area that Rizz might splash the cash next season…given the disaster its been this year. Maybe thats more hope.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
He comes on in the 3rd to close out the game?
"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta
This is the best answer. It would be absolutely hilarious to reverse the usual pitching situation. Think about teams trying hard to score runs in the first three, before Stephen gets out there, rather than teams trying hard to score in the first seven.
That’s a pretty funny idea. I wonder if it’s ever been done.
I know LaRussa used his bullpen for entire games before when he had no starters.
I know that we know it ould never happen and we’re only kidding, but if it did happen, the Nats would need a lead because they couldn’t pinch hit for Stras for the rest of the game. I wonder if Chuck Norris is available.
If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman
Those who wont be here
My guess on who wont be here.
Joe Beimel
Tyler Clippard
Mike MacDougal
Julian Tavarez (gone by the end of the month)
Ron Villone
Wil Nieves
Ronnie Belliard
Cristian Guzman
Nick Johnson
Willie Harris
Austin Kearns
I think they’ll hold onto Dunn and Hammer…as much as I think one could be traded.
No idea who will be around next season.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
They wont follow my advice, but I would keep
Willy Harris, Willingham, all the SPs, Ryan Zimmerman, NJ (I resign him for a year), Flores, Bard, Maybe Nieves, maybe Andy Hernandez as a backup, Morgan, Gonzalez, Biemel as a lefty specialist, Bergman, Clippard, and Mock.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I would sign or trade for
a closer, a very good defensive LF/CF that hits lefties very well, a setup man, a dominant defensive SS that can hopefully hit. I would move Martis and JD Martin to our bullpen, bat Willingham 4th and play him fulltime in RF, Wliiy Harris platoon full time in LF, and give Gonzales a season at second batting second.
Dukes is someone I am unsure what to do with. I would probably start him as the #4 OF and hope he seizes a starting role as the season goes along, but drop him if he flops defensively again.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
You guy don't like Clippard?
From what I’ve seen, he can be good, and that’s all the Nationals need right now, potential. He’s also really young, another positive.
I like Clippard
but what is his contract situation?
by Parks Smith on Jul 20, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I do too
Initially, I thought he might be one of those “Mock-type” of AAAA players who go up and down like a yo-yo.
But after tonights performance im more inclined to think he might make the transition. If we can find about 3 more like that… we might have a bullpen for next season.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
Clippard's contract situation is certainly not an issue
He’s got less than one full season of big league service time. He might end up as a Super Two down the line when arbitration kicks in because he pitched 37 innings between 2007 and 2008. Heading into next season, he’s not even arbitration eligible yet. In other words, the Nats will most likely retain him for somewhere in the $500,000 range.
by bluelineswinger on Jul 21, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought this was a thread
asking which Nats fans were going to axe themselves after the season.
I’ve never been more suicidal than this season as a washington nats fan.
Bryant Young, the gold standard of gold standards for 49ers defensive linemen.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 20, 2009 2:37 AM EDT reply actions
Heh, the 40-man might outnumber the fan base...
"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta
I think I've fractured brones
with the number of face palms I’ve given myself this season.
can someone start a “Washington returning to Montreal for 40 games next season” rumour?
The Washington National Expos of Montreal.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
+81......
"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo
by cat daddy3000 on Jul 21, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Payroll for next year
I was bored so I looked into the Nats payroll difference for this year and next season (lets face it, we might as well speculate about next season).
As we being keen Nats fans all know, the payroll for this season started out at $61,455,049. 4th in the NL East.
Looking at the spreadsheet – the following have already gone or would be expected to get the boot.
Pena, Wily Mo
Hill, Shawn
Young, Dmitri
Kearns, Austin
Cabrera, Daniel
Belliard, Ron
Tavarez, Julian
Milledge, Lastings
Ledezma, Wil
That distinctive list – costs the Nats $21,329,049
Add NJ (sorry Ed but I plan for the possibility of him leaving under FA) and it becomes, $26,829,049.
You want to throw in Beimel? the figure expands like DY’s waistline and goes to $28,829,049
What does that leave us next season (this is made with some caveats… some players next season are due for arbitration and possible increases – such as Hammer and Flores. Others like Olsen and Begmann might not be in line for big increases. Other players maybe resigned for another season for more cash but it shouldn’t be huge increases). It doesnt figure the payout for Kearns(!) at $1m. It doesnt add Morgan and Burnett.
The figure is $41,651,000.00. That’s $39,651,000.00 without Beimel.
Leaving plenty about the Strasburg Fund (even $20M signing fee isnt that huge an increase given the size of the wages for a minor leaguer and they are over 6 years – from memory…im sure someone will correct me if im wrong).
Puts us back to around Marlins/Pirates kind of payroll. It doesn’t quite put us back as far as the payroll in 2007 ($37,347,500)…but its not far off it. So plenty of scope I would have felt to expand the roster – finances depending ( I guess planning for a global recovery is the late 2010, you could assume revenues might bounce back from this year).
Not sure if anyone finds this interesting…but it killed a few hours for me.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
Actually
I forgot Hanny who had left ($450k) but that’s unlikely make much of a difference (probably offset by Burnett). Dukes is another interesting one as he is also due for arbitration next season.
So its probably a case of $39m without Beimel, +$5-7m for wage rises for a few players going into arbitration.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
not a cheap team are we!
we waste lots of money
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I think a $40m payroll next season would be cheap
But I cant see it staying there. With Arbitration its likely to be $45-47m. With new players – and possibly Stras, its probably will be back to the same at $60m. I have my doubts it will be more than this year.
I agree that we wasted some $20m. I think $15-17m of the players listed above were really bad contracts. Some were a bit of gamble that didnt pay off but some were clearly outrageous and products of a silly Bowden era. I wonder if that will influence the kind of contracts Rizzo will sign from here on in… maybe more 2 year deals rather than 6.
"On this team, the difference between Clippard and Julian Tavarez is like the difference between a 6-2 loss and a 9-2 loss." -- Chico Harlan
I think Morgan and Hammer will have pretty high arbitration numbers. We’ll have to get a new second baseman unless the determine Gonzalez is worth of being a starter.
Guzi gets 8M
Zimm I can’t remember…his contract pays a lot more in the later years.
Dunn gets 12M next year.
Willie got a 2 year deal for a couple mill each.
Catchers will be cheap.
Non-Strasburg starting pitchers will be really cheap.
The bullpen will cost some dollars.
So that leaves 1B, 2B and RF for potential outsiders.
I bet the Nats can trade Dunn in the offseason if they decide on defense in the outfield over homers, RBI, walks and strikeouts. Look at Bobby Abreu on the Angels. Plays good D, good hitter, steals bases…
If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman
Hammer will get the most. Morgan may also get something decent…but im thinking about $2.5-3m each for both if it gets that far (I would have thought Rizzo would probably tie up both given they are playing well).
Zim gets $6.35m next season.
I think we’ve got – Strasburg aside – about $20m to play with over the break assuming they dont add more (looking at the way its increased each year, its possible it might edge to $70m). Not sure what they will get us – but I agree about the needs.
"On this team, the difference between Clippard and Julian Tavarez is like the difference between a 6-2 loss and a 9-2 loss." -- Chico Harlan
oh
I factored all the increases (Dunn, Guz, Zim etc) into next years payroll… so the $39m includes that (so Dunn is $12m out of $39m!).
"On this team, the difference between Clippard and Julian Tavarez is like the difference between a 6-2 loss and a 9-2 loss." -- Chico Harlan
what about the coaching staff?
Every year, the Nationals (whoever is on the roster) are dominated by junkballers like Livan Hernandez and Jamie Moyer who struggle against the rest of the league. How about someone who will work on their pre-game preparation and approach?
Mate, on coaches
They seem to sack the lot every year… I’d bet on yet another overhaul this offseason.
I think they need some coaches who are going to not only prepare the team better as you point out – but also in terms of defensive drills. Normally teams get a bit better at defense as the season goes on (because they get in the groove), but this team actually gets worse…its a real worry.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand."
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