What the Nationals Need to Do

by John Quinn on Jul 26, 2009 11:23 AM EDT Comment 52 comments

Here's what the Nationals need to do to turn this ballclub around:

1.) Don't trade Nick Johnson. I've waffled on this one, but I think I've settled on DNTNJ. He's only 30, he's easily one of the best fielders the Nationals have right now, and he's the last player to come down from Montreal. Although it doesn't really matter to me that he came from Montreal, I do think that link is important, and hopefully he can step up and become a leader on the team.

2.) Trade Dunn to an AL team. I thought maybe he should stick around, but the errors just keep coming. He'd be great as a DH, and though he gets on base often, he doesn't have the speed to steal bases and the Nationals don't have consistent enough hitting to bring him around to score.

3.) Keep trying new pitchers. I'm glad to see Mock getting a chance, Martin getting another shot tonight. Along the same lines, the Nats are doing a good job protecting the pitchers they already have (Zimmerman to the DL, surgery for Olsen and then keeping him out), so keep doing that.

4.) Get rid of anyone born before 1980, excepting Nick Johnson and maybe Josh Willingham. That means trading (hopefully) Joe Beimel, Ron Villone, Mike MacDougal, Josh Bard and/or Wil Nieves (when Jesus Flores is up and running again), Ronnie Belliard, Cristan Guzman, Adam Dunn, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns (born in '80, but he's got to go). Seems like a pretty radical change but I'm just a writer, not a manager ;)

5.) Turn up the heat. Riggleman was upset yesterday, and that needs to keep up. When a player does something stupid or just doesn't try, pull him immediately. Send the message that stupid mistakes are not okay in baseball. When a player has a bad attitude, bench him. Baseball is so psychological that the Nationals cannot afford to do any less.

Thoughts?

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Comments

Agree with all, especially 1, 2, and 5, although the trading part is likely to be pretty dismal.

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 25, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we’ve all forgotten about Nick’s injuries. Things that knock regular players out for a week, knock Nick out for the season.

If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Jul 25, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, but I think NJ deserves more credit than he’s receiving here. He’s made it this entire season (unless I’m forgetting something?) without any problem.

by John Quinn on Jul 25, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but a broken leg, smashed cheekbone, bruised heal....... were accidents, not health issues.

Back hasn’t acted up in years, and the wrist seems fine……

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 25, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His history speaks for itself. Things happen to him.

This will be the 4th season in his nine seasons where he will play in over 100 games.

I don’t know if he shared 1B on the Yankees in the early years or what.

If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Jul 25, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Jul 26, 2009 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DNTNJ!!! Finally someone's on my side!!!!

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Ed Chigliak on Jul 25, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've been with you all along

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Jul 26, 2009 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm starting to lean that way, too.

At this point, I’m not sure that the Nats would get anyone worth anything for him.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NICK!! NICK!! NICK!! NICK!!!

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Ed Chigliak on Jul 26, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with all except some of point 4

Some of those guys might be worth having around. I’ve been impressed with Bard who has played hurt and been a refreshing source of leadership on this team. Nieves isnt bad either…for 2 backup catchers, while they have made some errors, I think they havent stunk as much as some of the others. I’d keep them both as backups if possible as they are cheap.

On the other side, I dont mind any of those other guys you mentioned going. Kearns needs to be taken out back and shot. Id trade Harris as I think he is miffed that he isnt playing a lot anymore – or maybe has had enough of the circus.

"On this team, the difference between Clippard and Julian Tavarez is like the difference between a 6-2 loss and a 9-2 loss." -- Chico Harlan

by Mezza on Jul 25, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, Bard has been a source of leadership lately (at least, he’s been quoted a lot). Hopefully when Nieves heals, though, we won’t need him.

by John Quinn on Jul 25, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im a little confused

You say that the nats don’t have much hitting so… you want to trade the team’s best hitter?

by martins on Jul 26, 2009 2:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Basically, yes.

Unless he hits a home run (once every four games or so), he is left on base too often to justify the money he’s getting. He is having an impressive season, so trading him now would net the best long-term players.

by John Quinn on Jul 26, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm cool with a Dunn trade, but only because he completely can't field at all and it's not even close.

Dunn is plainly a K/BB/HR player; don’t expect anything else from him. His bat certainly has some serious value, but an AL team that can nullify his only significant negative would be a better option than a NL team that’ll have the same issues the Nats are going through.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

I’m not arguing that Dunn is a bad batter, because he certainly isn’t, but in the NL his downside almost outweighs his upside. Trade him to the AL where he can focus on his batting and bring some good players in return.

by John Quinn on Jul 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but then

who on the team would hit?

that’s basically what i was getting at

by martins on Jul 26, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully, everyone else!

In all seriousness, Johnson, Guzman, Willingham and Zimmerman have a better batting average than Dunn. Johnson and Willingham have a better OBP, and Willingham even has a better slugging percentage. Dunn has 29 more strikeouts than Zimmerman, who has the second most on the team.

What Dunn has showed me is not enough to justify his expense on the team.

by John Quinn on Jul 26, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dont be fooled

willingham has a higher slugging pct in only 217 AB. He is also slugging a mind boggling 557 right now, and has never slugged 500 in his career. Willingham is a decent hitter but trust me, he is not the guy you are seeing now … expect some major drop off.

Also, please don’t mention Guzman if we are talking about good hitters:)

in all seriousness, guzman has been one of the worst hitters on the team this year… don’t let the batting average fool you. his BABIP was astronomical during his hot hitting. This basically means that every time he put the bat on the ball it was finding a hole somewhere… but now hes come back to earth

I would caution you on using any one statistic(especially batting average, which I find pretty useless… and yes before you ask, this was my opinion even when dunn was hitting .300… heh) Dunn is in the top 10 in the nl in every relevant category….

tied for 4th in hr
3rd in walks
9th in slugging
5th in rbi
7th in 0ps

and just for good measure… 11th in obp

I know its a dead horse at this point… but let’s beat it some more… WHO CARES HOW MUCH ADAM DUNN STRIKES OUT? I would understand it if he didn’t produce, you might be inclined to want him to make more contact… but clearly he is producing like crazy…. so what difference does it make how he makes his outs?

Adam Dunn’s 2009 GIDP pct (347ab) 2.0%
Ryan Zimmerman’s 2009 GIDP4.0%

Charles Dickens Once Wrote: ’It’s better to make one out than it is to make two outs".

Not only that, but he’s blowing zimmerman away in terms of plate production….. I really wouldnt care if every out Adam Dunn made was a strikeout, if he would put up these kinda numbers every year.

by martins on Jul 27, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats

402 abs for zimmerman, dont know how i missed that

by martins on Jul 27, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, I agree.

Dunn is a good hitter, he’s got a lot of home runs and all that. What I’m trying to point out is that Dunn is getting paid more than he should be for his overall production on the team, and would be better off getting paid to just hit in the AL. He’s getting $8,000,000 this year, most on the team (along with Guzman and Kearns), is 29 years old, and has the lowest fielding percentage of anyone with over 300 innings other than Alberto Gonzalez.

He’s a good batter, but a bad fielder and I feel he’s overpaid for what he brings to the Nationals. He’d be fantastic in the AL.

by John Quinn on Jul 27, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Signing Strasburg?....or not... and at what price?....... 1st round pick or ASG?

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/ citing a Peter Gammons article…..

“…. going over slot to sign draft choices. If you are the Royals, not only are your revenues light, but the commissioner’s office has threatened to take away your 2012 All-Star Game if you go ahead with the agreements you have in place with two high picks.”

Mark Lerner: "Since obtaining the franchise, we have sent numerous letters and had numerous conversations with Commissioner Bud Selig asking that he award an All-Star Game to Washington, D.C……Selfishly, it is my dream that the game be played during Bud Selig’s tenure as Commissioner so my father — who is currently 83 ……..believe me, getting an All-Star Game in D.C. is an absolute passion of mine.

Lerner: “As for Stephen Strasburg, I certainly hope we will sign him. He’s a great prospect…”

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 26, 2009 3:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, that's an easy one.

Using the All-Star Game as a negotiating tactic by the commissioner’s office is kind of an idiotic crutch to use. Besides, isn’t the ASG booked until 2015 or so anyway? What’s the big deal about getting hosed to 2017?

With that being said, Lerner sticking to the slot guns so he can maybe host a ASG in 6 years ….I know it’s family. But there’s also a business, and I seriously question that business decision.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe 2013 is available.

Odd number years in the NL park.

Bring it on.

If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Jul 26, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For some reason I thought 2013 was booked, but I don't remember where I found that.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, it's only speculation at this point, but the Mets are supposedly in good shape to get that one.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like they are going through the alphabet for the next three years...

Anaheim
Arizona
Boston

If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Jul 26, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well that doesn’t bode well for Washington.

by Scott in Shaw on Jul 27, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the above the 2012 ASG might be available

Selig says:

SD, you pay too much and we’re giving your game to the Nats…..

Nats, you follow slot and we may give you SD’s ASG in 2012 before the old man croaks… The fans will get over Strasburg….. It’s why I chose you, remember?

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 26, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with 1-3, but only part of 4, and not 5.

Mainly because we do not have anyone to fill the roles of most of the players in 4, so we are likely stuck with many of them. Plus, nearly anyone we could find to replace those guys would likely be over the age of 30 since it is rare a talented guy is allowed to be a free agent before he is 30. We wont trade them for more than peanuts.

I think much of our problems this year came because Acta really tuened up the heat early in the year.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Jul 26, 2009 3:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BTW I just do not get why TAWH is not the LF against RHP much more often

He should be! Look at his stats this season and career: RHP has a tough time getting him out. Add to that his Gold glove quality defense in LF, his intensity, intelligence on the basepaths, speed, and he should be playing all the time there.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Jul 26, 2009 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What'd he do early in the year?

I still maintain that he was left to make chicken salad out of three beaks, a couple of feathers, and two shreds of 3-month-old lettuce.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Jul 26, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with you all?

“Don’t trade Nick Johnson” like he’s getting better or that “team leadership” is somehow quantifiable or valuable to a team like the Nationals. Trade him and get a prospect back for heaven’s sake. Move Willingham to first if you’re THAT concerned about the position. Keeping him is just foolish thinking and your reasons for keeping him don’t even straddle the line of common sense.

You all have to remember that he’s going to be a free agent for the first time in his career. He’s not going to be classified Type B so you’re not getting a compensation pick for him if he leaves. Johnson will be a valued commodity on the free agent market and teams with a higher budget or farther along in the success cycle will likely be interested (think Giants, Angels, Mets among others). Sure there’s a chance he’ll re-up, but it’s highly doubtful.

by All Shook Down on Jul 26, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So far he DOES project as a type-B, as least the last time I saw a discussion of it.

"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jul 26, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, no

http://www.scribd.com/full/17307814?access_key=key-b51zwnu6cmptu1y7vn6

He’s so far down that he has absolutely no chance. Rich Aurilia is ranked higher for crying out loud. Do you see why it’s indefensibly stupid to not trade him?

by All Shook Down on Jul 26, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to the most recent Elias Rankings

Johnson would be a Type B Free Agent (60.800 score). He’d be one of the four lowest NL 1b/OF/DH in the Type B category, but he would be there. This is coming from someone who’s been saying that they should trade NJ all season, and it doesn’t really change my thoughts on the matter. Get some prospects for him.

by bluelineswinger on Jul 26, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who plays first...?

And “indefensibly stupid”? Nice…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Ed Chigliak on Jul 26, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about trade for a first base prospect?

The friggin’ White Sox gave up a pretty decent one in exchange for a relief pitcher. Jesus Guzman has been tearing up AAA for the Giants - see if you can get HIM thrown in a deal for Nick. In case you haven’t noticed, it’s a seller’s trade market and the Nationals need to stockpile assets. A 31-year old first baseman that stands to make between $6$9M on the free agent market is not a viable asset for a rebuilding team like the Nats. That money is better allocated in player development, be it in the draft or IFA.

And yes, I feel that the DUN TRADE NICKY BABY stuff is indefensibly shortsighted bordering on stupid.

by All Shook Down on Jul 26, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

And I did it again with the strikethroughs. What the heck? I’m stupid!

by All Shook Down on Jul 26, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem as I see it is that no one is offering legit prospects, because everyone sees Nick as "injury prone"...

…and they don’t want to take a chance of giving up something they’ll regret if he ends up on the DL again. Otherwise, if the Nationals with 30 wins so far, had gotten any serious offers I think they would have made a trade…

Bowden said as much when he talked about trading players in the past and I think Rizzo’s running into the same problems…the only reason i object to the “stupid” comments is that you’re assuming that we all here haven’t spent two years making the same arguments that you have…in that time, no one has made an offer that convinced DC it was worth it to part with Johnson…now there’s one week for someone who’s desperate to step up, or I say sign Johnson if he’ll stay and let him mentor the #1 1B prospect in the system, Chris Marrero, rather than pick up another first base prospect like you suggest….

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Ed Chigliak on Jul 26, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember, Ed, there were only 2 or 3 of us besides you last season.

Cut the new guys some slack! ;)

"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jul 26, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is my thing. From everything I’ve seen on MLBTradeRumors, some teams have been interested in NJ, but haven’t offered anything very good, or thought the Nationals wanted too much. If the Nats were offered a good deal, I’m sure they would take it, but NJ is worth more to the Nats than what they’d get in return.

by John Quinn on Jul 26, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously it is a case of making sure that you get a quality prospect back

I hate to bring up the injury history, which is obviously the thing that’s cited most often by anyone when they talk about Johnson. Most of them could be classified as “freak” injuries, which I won’t deny. Combine that with the fact that he’s likely a rental player to any team that he would be traded to, and I would think that the best the Nats could do is get a Grade B type prospect or two Grade C types. Basically, what I’m saying is that I’m not crazy enough to think that they could get a future star, but someone who could probably have a major league future as a slightly above average starter (depending upon the position they go after…. yes. There are many holes).

The difference between making a trade for a decent prospect who has had some time to develop and hoping he holds onto the Type B Free Agent status for next season would be fairly significant.

A) That player is generally considerably more projectable. We’ve seen what he’s been able to do as a professional for at least a year or two already, though we haven’t seen how he’s going to perform in the big leagues.

B) Again, we’re not talking about a Type A Free Agent. Compensation for losing Johnson via free agency (assuming he holds at his current status, which seems like a fairly safe gamble) is one sandwich pick. While the Nats would end up with the top Type B Sandwich pick of the round (goes in inverse order of finish…. don’t see the Nats clawing out of the big league cellar at this point), that pick’s likely going to be somewhere between #35 and #45 overall. It’s not like we’re talking a top ten pick or something. We’ve seen the sandwich pick work. We saw losing Soriano to free agency work (Zimmermann), but obtaining a known commodity is a considerably better gamble.

I’d love to think that the Nats should be able to get a future star for NJ (or any of their players who are considered to be on the market. That’s not going to happen. Still, I’d take a solid prospect or two that look on their way to a big league future rather than keeping NJ on the club for two more months only to watch us get a sandwich pick for him.

For those keeping track at home, the sandwich pick they got (the other part of the Type A Free Agent signing of Soriano by the Cubs) was Josh Smoker. Smoker hasn’t been awful…. but he also hasn’t made it out of rookie ball in 2 and a half years since turning pro. You win some, you lose some (and I know that, as he can’t drink legally until November, Smoker’s got plenty of time). Johnson should fetch a cheap, controllable, solid big-league contributor for the next six years.

by bluelineswinger on Jul 26, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Keep Nick Johnson so he can mentor a prospect? He’s going to go up to Syracuse on off days and teach him how to ‘pick it at first base’? In case you haven’t noticed,it’s a seller’s market! The Giants gave up a Top 10 prospect for a 28-year old platoon first baseman who’s arbitration eligible after the season. Imagine what a team might give up for a player that’s actually good?!

by All Shook Down on Jul 28, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but an arb-eligible guy is still under team control...

…any trading Nick knows they’re renting him for 2 mos.

"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jul 28, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But an arb-eligible who's mariginal at best isn't very valuable.

by All Shook Down on Jul 28, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you haven't seen the latest estimates....

Nick is back as a projected Type B. It almost seems there was some kind of calculation error in the last set of projections.

by HTT on Jul 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nick would command so little in trade why bother.

He is over paid and has little power. Plus, everyone fears making a huge PR mistake and trade a prospect to us for a guy that gets injured. No other team sees his value like we do. I think we should try to resign him for another year. After another year of health he will command type A value for his services. Plus if we let him go we wont be able to find a firstbasemen anywhere that canplay the position as well as NJ. Willingham is a disaster at first. I want to win more games, not less next season!

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Jul 27, 2009 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how Nick values himself.......not very talkative, outside the Yankees series, where he loved NY...

Does he really want to test the FA market after what happened last Winter? Maybe the Nats will give him a standing offer and he can choose his options….

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 27, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m sure Nick would like to win. I’m sure he’d love to be on the Giants or A’s because it’s not far from his hometown. Each of those teams should win more than the Nats next year.

Just sayin’ that’s where I’d go if I were Nick.

If you can’t convince them, confuse them. - President Harry S Truman

by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Jul 27, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs