Game 101: Disappointment, by WPA

by Doghouse on Jul 30, 2009 8:06 AM EDT

teh awes0mest play:	Tyler Clippard gets a GDP with runners on the corners and no outs (+0.131)
teh suxx0rest play:	Tyler Clippard coughs up a two-run, go-ahead bomb to "Casey McGehee" (-0.371)
MVP:	The Z-man (+0.188)
LVP:	Clip (-0.253)

Interestingly, the third-awesomest play for the Nats was when Nyjer Morgan went first-to-third on a wild pitch (+0.111). The second-awesomest was a Ryan Zimmerman RBI single (+0.118). Overall, an exciting see-saw game with an all-too-familiar result.

(Each play changes the odds of winning by the "win percentage added" or WPA. It adds up to +0.5 for a win, and -0.5 for a loss--you start the game with a 50% chance of winning. This idea stolen from Amazin' Avenue.)

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Comments

Do we really need a graph everyday?

by Parks Smith on Jul 30, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions

I need 2 or 3 graphs a day...

…but then I might have a problem with math addiction.

I can put the chart below the fold and call out the heroes and zeroes up top if it’s too much clutter on the front page.

I think these point out some interesting plays, and they provide almost a record of our hopefulness/hopelessness over the game…

Other notes of interest: the second-worst play for the Nats was when Guz grounded out in the 8th with Nyjer on 3rd and 1 out (-0.145), just after Nyjer did his first-to-third dash on the WP (the 3rd best Nats play, as above). I also think it’s interesting that both the best and worst plays for the Nats involved the same player, on consecutive at-bats. Most of this doesn’t really mean anything, but I think it’s neat.

"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta

by Doghouse on Jul 30, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

i like the graphs

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Jul 30, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions

+2 on graphs, nothing personal, Pas...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jul 30, 2009 10:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Nothing illustrates a point better than a graph...

GRAPH = UNDERSTANDING = A METAPHYSICAL sense of well being

by Berndaddy on Jul 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

No worries

We just have a lot of stat geeks here and there is nothing wrong with that, its just not for me.

by Parks Smith on Jul 30, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions

Will the graph even start out 50/50 with this batting order?

Lineups From Miller Park

Washington

Morgan – 8
Gonzalez – 6
Zimmerman – 5
Dunn – 7
Willingham – 9
Johnson – 3
Nieves – 2
Hernandez – 4
Martin – 1

"And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times..." -Rizzo

by cat daddy3000 on Jul 30, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions