Waiver Guzman? What the H____?
OK, I know, because Guzzy is in the last year of his contract.
Come again?!?!? Here is one of the prime reasons the Nats are now in a hitting, winning combination, and you place one of the hot hitters on waivers. Does that make sense to anyone, or am I just dreaming? But once again, here's a high salaried player that the Nats are letting go to receive nothing in return, or replace him with a person who has a low salary (ala the Pirates business model).
wxguy
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I wish I could say this is quick, but I'll throw an explanation of some of the waiver rules out there
So it won’t. First off, I’ll mention that Guzman is not in the final year of his contract. He’s due to make $8 million next season. Now for the waiver explanation. This happens every August (not necessarily with the Nats, but with some team at some point), so it would make sense to clarify it.
There are several different types of waivers that a player can be placed on:
Revocable Waivers – This is the type of waivers that Guzman was placed on. It means exactly what you would think, based on the name. A player is placed on waivers, but they can revoke his placement on waivers if he does not clear. Many players are placed on revocable waivers in August because they are eligible to be traded to any team if they are not claimed. They’re eligible to be traded to the team that placed a claim within 48 hours of the time that they are claimed. The team (in this case the Nats) can also choose to revoke the player’s status on waivers and retain him if they choose to do so… this simply means that they’ll be unable to trade him unless they place him on waivers again later and no team claims him.
Irrevocable Waivers – Again, this is what it sounds like. Basically, this is “releasing” a player. The player then ends up on waivers for the regular period. If some other team chooses to place a claim, they then take on the contract. If not, the player becomes a free agent and the team that placed him on waivers is still responsible for paying the remainder of his contract.
Assignment Waivers – These are used for players who are out of minor league options in order to send them to the minor leagues. Again, this is not the case here.
Today, there was a player who was placed on “Revocable Waivers” who was allowed to depart by an AL team. Alex Rios (formerly of the Blue Jays) was claimed off of waivers by the Chicago White Sox. No deal was struck, but the Blue Jays elected (and I would say this was the wise business decision…. whether it was the wise “baseball” decision could be determined by how they’re able to use the money [re-signing Roy Halladay, perhaps?]) to let the White Sox take Rios’ remaining contract off their hands anyway.
In the case of Guzman, I would consider placing him on Revocable Waivers an absolute no-brainer by the Nats. He’s slightly overpaid this season, and he’s going to be overpaid next season as well. While I always love the Nats and am excited about their current eight game win streak, I don’t believe that they’re in a position where they’re going to be close to contending for the NL East (or NL Wildcard) next season. A 32-year-old (what he will be next season) streaky hitting shortstop who is below average with the glove isn’t going to help them much. There’s an excellent chance that a contending team (say, for example, the Red Sox, who apparently did not actually place a claim on him, but have said they may have interest if he clears waivers) would be interested in acquiring Guzman’s services to help them get over the hump.
By clearing Guzman through waivers, this would still allow the Nats to pursue trading Guzman (be it to the Red Sox/some other team that placed a claim, or to any team if nobody has actually placed a claim) for a player(s) that could be in a better position to contribute when the Nats look closer to fielding a contending team. It would also possibly give the Nats $8 million off the books for next season that they could use elsewhere. If they can get a quality prospect or two, it’s an excellent “baseball decision.” Even if they can’t get much in terms of quality prospects, it’s still a solid “business decision.”
And just because they clear him through waivers doesn’t mean that they have to trade him. It just means that it’s an option. There are absolutely no negatives to placing a player on revocable waivers, as the Nats did with Guzman.
by bluelineswinger on Aug 10, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the explanation
But while it might make good business sense for those concerned with making a buck, it’s bad sense for morale of the team in the middle of a win streak! I don’t consider a player batting over ,300 just a streaky hitter. You say nothing about his recent clutch hitting during the current win streak. As far as being overpaid, I guess by the Lerner’s Nats’ standards, he is, but I think not when compared to what real, contending teams pay their .300 hitters.
I don’t see this as just good business sense. To me it’s dumb baseball management, unless you truly get some really decent player in return. To me, given your use of the term “good business”, you must agree that this is yet another example of the Nats’ trading a high (relatively speaking) salaried player for a lower salaried player to keep the operating costs low and increase the profit margin. Why didn’t they waiver Kearns, who has done nothing the following two years? At least in Kearns case, there would be a saving of money.
This whole maneuver reflects, yet again, the penny pinching of the Lerner’s. They are being penny wise and pound foolish.
wxguy
by wxguy on Aug 10, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They probably did put Kearns on waivers, but no one cared...
"If somebody hasn't seen me, I try to leave a good impression on their mind, so they come back to enjoy this beautiful game of baseball." --Tony Plush
by Doghouse on Aug 10, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear most teams put almost everybody on waivers.
Never hurts to see who’s out there that wants sto be a trade partner.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Aug 10, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds prudent to me
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Aug 11, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you Roscoe
Nice to have some backup. Just because I mention business sense doesn’t mean that it can’t lead to it being a good baseball move (assuming they re-invest the money in the team). Placing a player through waivers really just gives you more options.
Adam Dunn was traded from the Reds to the Diamondbacks after clearing waivers in August last season, to use a name that’s fresh in everyone’s mind. Guzman was going to be placed on waivers at some point during August no matter what. It just gives the club more options.
As for him being a hot hitter and the team being hot all-around…. Isn’t that exactly the point of trying to trade him now? This was why they should have traded Johnson in May. This was why they probably should have traded Guzman in May. The realization that the team doesn’t look like it’s one or two moves away from being in contention should scream that it’s time to move the 30-something-year olds with contracts that will expire in the next two years who are likely to be beyond their peak years (or there already) by the time there are enough players around them for their current contributions to matter. Why do I go back to May? That’s when Nick Johnson and Cristian Guzman’s trade value was highest, as they were red hot.
In terms of the high batting average, there are many things beyond batting average, and Guzman is no better than average (worse, in many cases) in a lot of those areas. I’ll go step by step:
- He’s pitiful at reaching base via the base on balls (walk).
- He’s prone to slumps, which tend to be countered by streaks like the current one that he’s on. He’s currently hit in fifteen of sixteen games (without an official AB in the other one), and he’s had multiple hits in twelve of those games. Prior to this run, he was in an 0-for-17 funk. He’s had four instances this season where he’s gone 10 or more AB without a hit.
- With most players, you can even live with the slumps because they’ll still try and find ways to get on base. With Guzman, that means you’re going through a 4-5 game stretch where he fails to reach base even once because of his approach at the plate.
- Power (shrug). Guz does enough in the doubles and triples department to be considered average in the power department. He has 31 extra base hits (20 2b, 6 3b, 5 HR), but a great deal of his slugging percentage the past two years has been because of his stronger production as an average-hitter. His current 2009 line (.317/.337/.437) is pretty much right in line with last year’s (.316/.345/.440) despite the peaks and valleys. A .774 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s nothing to write home about either.
- Defense. Guz was a plus fielder in five of his first six years with the Twins. He has never shown to be a plus fielder in his tenure with the Nats. His UZR/150 with the Nats: 2005: -2.7… 2006: N/A 2007: -5.9… 2008: -3.7… 2009: -6.6… Guzman currently ranks 18th out of 21 SS with enough innings to qualify in UZR this season.
- Overall: Guzman’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) on the season thus far is 1.3, which would also rank him 18th among 21 qualifying shortstops. He currently ranks ahead of Jerry Hairston, Orlando Cabrera, and Edgar Renteria.
Simply put, Guzman isn’t that great of a player. The replacement options aren’t particularly strong (Desmond? I don’t want to see Gonzalez’s noodle arm moved back to SS), but if you can find a team willing to overpay for a hot stretch, why wouldn’t you do it? He’s due $8 million (again) next season by a team that doesn’t figure to be in contention. He’ll be 33 by the start of the 2011 season (which he would have to be re-signed again for) and he’s already showing signs of decline in the field to go with stretches of mediocrity at the plate. That $8 million for next year is dead money.
Now, my contention (and hope) is that the Nats would invest that money into the team if they were to move Guzman. If they were to invest that money into the club, it would be a wise baseball move… not just a wise business move… particularly if they could add a solid prospect or two by trading him.
by bluelineswinger on Aug 11, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it very unlikely any team can get to the WS with Guzman at SS
He is powerless, can’t steal, and fields badly. However, when I go out and look at the SS free agents this offseason, and consider the in house options, Guzman is the best choice for next year for sure.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Aug 11, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
is it worth the price? if we keep him or don’t keep him does it make the nationals a playoff team?
by snowburnt on Aug 11, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we are not far from contending.
The team playing right now is Waaay better than the team playing in April (thank you Pirates!). To be a contender next year we simply need a few things. 1) Health from our regulars. 2) Noone getting worse, or if anyone gets worse he is ballanced out by someone getting better. 3) Big improvement from secondbase both offensively and defensively. 4) at least two of our SPs besides Lannan getting their ERA’s below 4 for the season.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Aug 12, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still need a lot of work with the starting rotation
Without a key free-agent pickup this offseason, the Nats’ starting rotation could still be shaky next year. No one is a proven starter other than Lannan and Olsen, and Olsen’s health is an issue. Zimmermann will be out all of next year and no one knows if he’ll ever be able to recover from the surgery. Maybe, but maybe not. The other young guys have shown signs of promise but nothing more. It’s hard to rely on all of those guys and expect to have a solid rotation for 2010.
If the Nats are serious about making vast improvements for 2010, they may have to get a veteran pitcher. He wouldn’t need to be a superstar but at least they need to get someone to eat up some innings, the way that Livan Hernandez used to.
Besides the pitching and 2B, Dukes will have to improve a lot too. With Dunn at 1B, Willingham at LF and Morgan in CF, the team still needs a dependable RF. Dukes has a lot of potential but he still hasn’t taken over that spot the way he should. And then there’s the matter of Flores’ health. He hasn’t proven durable at all. Bard and Nieves have done well in the platoon situation but would that be enough for a team that hopes to contend in the future?
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Aug 15, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guzman is average
A recent article over at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron called Guzman one of the most average players in baseball. He also said average players are essential to winning teams. Guzman is a below average fielder with an above average bat for a SS. His bat and glove cancel out to be almost perfectly zero (zero is perfectly average). BTW, Jason Bay was called equally all round average. Bay has a very weak glove offsetting his awsome bat. upon reading this, I decided Guzman was good enough to be the Nats starter for a couple of years at SS. Assuming dave is right. I am inclined to believe him.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Aug 17, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the only thing
guzman is proficent at is batting average, which is unreliable, so lets say his BABIP slips(as it has in the past) and he hits 280 with a 300 OBP and no power with a below average glove, how is he valuable then?
that was a great post by blueline, he basically nailed it. That’s what happens when guys don’t walk, they go on these prolonged 0-20s, because if they dont hit a ball past a fielder they make an out. Don’t be fooled, the difference between hitting 270 in a season as opposed to 300 is miniscule.
don’t believe me? here are guzman’s batting averages by season. each season contains 400+ abs except 07 (174abs) starting from 1999:
226
247
302
273
268
274
219
328
316
308(so far this year)
and there it is.. from 226 to 302 to 268 to 219 to 328. And its not just guzman. Take a much better hitter(arod) and you get similar descrepencies. The bottom line is, if the only thing you are doing well is hitting for average, you are lost… because it all depends on what gets through and what dosen’t, something the hitter has virtually no contol over.
by martins on Aug 19, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batting average is not a realiable statistical measure...
…things like OBP and SLG “stabilize” after a certain number of PA and become reliable indicators of a player’s actual talent. Batting average doesn’t stabilize even after a whole season’s worth of PA (that is, it bounces around too much to say that it’s a reliable indicator of what it’s trying to measure). Check this link for the details.
"If somebody hasn't seen me, I try to leave a good impression on their mind, so they come back to enjoy this beautiful game of baseball." --Tony Plush
by Doghouse on Aug 20, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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