Is Elijah Dukes the long-term answer at RF?
As we enter the final stages of the 2009 season, the Nats are trying to figure out who should stay and become part of the team's future and who doesn't fit their plans for 2010 and beyond. Former players like Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan, Anderson Hernandez and Nick Johnson are no longer with the team (though NJ could return as a free agent this winter). Elijah Dukes spent some time back in the minors but is now back with the big-league team. Is he the answer at RF? He struggled badly last year before turning it around in the 2nd half of 2008. His play has been inconsistent this year. He was on a hot streak a few weeks ago but now he's in a slump. His average has dipped to .236. He only has 7 HR in 254 AB but he has driven in 45 runs. He has 2 stolen bases but he's been "caught stealing" 8 times. Many of those were actually Dukes getting picked off of 1B.
No doubt that Dukes is a very strong and very fast player... but is he a real starting RF on a good MLB team? I don't know but he hasn't done much to establish himself as the RF. Besides the lack of power, the low average and the 1B pickoffs, he has proven to be fragile. Unless he picks it up in the last weeks of the season, I think the Nats need to take a serious look at the RF position and maybe find someone else for the position. Or find a LF and move Willingham back to RF.
If the Nats actually re-sign Nick Johnson, Dunn would move back to LF and Willingham to RF. As good as NJ is, I don't think that would be a good move. Dunn struggles badly in LF. Though he's no Gold Glover at 1B either, I think he could be an adequate 1B. It's better to keep Dunn's bat and leave him at 1B, and then figure out what to do about RF. Are there any prospects in the minors who are ready for next season? Bernadina and Maxwell need to show a little more before staying on at the major league level.
I don't have a definite answer to this question but it would be interesting to read what others have to say.
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Just talking about this last night at the game...
I was really hoping Dukes would take the job when it was handed to him with Kearns down and Hammer back in left, but unless he really gets it together the rest of the way, I wonder if he’ll be starting out there in April twenty-ten…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Aug 23, 2009 7:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Like Ed, I was hoping Elijah would just totally rip it up when he came back from Syracuse. He hasn’t exactly struggled, but he’s seemed… I don’t know, listless? I mean, I think he’s putting out a great effort, but he’s off somehow. He’s not recognizing pitches as well as the plate, chasing stuff out of the zone. He’s not reading caroms off the wall as well, he’s had some bobbles on catches that have cost him assists (or what looked like they would have been close plays, at least)… I hope he gets his stuff together.
"If somebody hasn't seen me, I try to leave a good impression on their mind, so they come back to enjoy this beautiful game of baseball." --Tony Plush
by Doghouse on Aug 23, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow this has been on my mind.
I do not think Dukes is the long term answer. According to fan graphs data he is below average both offensively and defensively in RF this season. Only just on the defense, but still. He was defensively dreadful in CF. Meanwhile, TAWH has outstanding defensive stats in LF. Gold glove quality for several seasons now. He hits RHP very well. Justin Maxwell has similar defensive numbers to TAHW in his short sample space and hits lefties very well. Until we find a permanent solution, I think platooning the TAWH and Maxwell in LF and moving Willingham to RF is the answer. I would bat the platoon in the two hole because of the onbasepercentages and speed of the players. Sorry Guzman. I want to keep you, but not in the two hole.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Aug 23, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting solution
I didn’t think of a platoon as a way to capitalize on TAWH contributions and a way to give Maxwell a lower stress option to see if he can hack it in the bigs.
by souldrummer on Aug 23, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the roster?
Wow, I missed the fact that this Morse guy has made brief appearances in the last two games. I’ve never heard of him. According to his stats page on Yahoo Sports, he’s hardly played in the majors in the last 4 seasons, including this year. He hit .278 in 230 AB way back in 2005. Since then, he’s only had 72 AB in the major leagues, until today.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Aug 23, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RF and Elijah Dukes
Too early to tell….Dukes has a lot of potential but no reality as yet. A good free agent RF under 28 yo that is a proven banger and good fielder for our lineup wd be worth pursueing unless ownership is finished spending $$$ for awhile
by rs43047 on Aug 23, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dukes is only 25 and was jerked around a lot this year....This is still a young player developing
Riggleman said he’s not recognizing the curveball, much like Sammy Sosa did at a similar age. If he gets past that, lookout…. And I think his fielding and arm have great potential….
"He's just a draft pick"...
by cat daddy3000 on Aug 23, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any candidates?
Any possible free agents, LF or RF, out there? I don’t follow other teams that closely so I don’t know who’s going to be available this offseason.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Aug 23, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every list I've seen, the good players are old and expensive........ and not potentially any better.
All teams need the same thing…and all fans want the magical pony
"He's just a draft pick"...
by cat daddy3000 on Aug 23, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Elijah Dukes *is* next year's answer at RF......
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 6, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's batting .175 with 2 strikes
He is over .500 when he is ahead in the count 2-0, 3-0.
I hope Eckstein is telling him to take a few pitches.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 6, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was an AB last night with a steady dose of sliders right off the plate
He fouled a couple and then took the rest…. 5 walks recently seem to be a big improvement, too. If he can recognize the curve and lay off the sliders, everyone will be a friend of Dukes…
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 6, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winter League work should help with the breaking stuff...then it's Dukes' Breakout year in twenty-ten!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Sep 7, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winter ball may be a sanity-saving grace to staring out the window and waiting for Spring to come....
Go El Tigres…… Elijah and the Ronnie B. Farewell Tour…
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 7, 2009 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's an interesting split
Maybe they are throwing him breaking balls early in the count…hence, when he is ahead 2-0, 3-0 he is getting a fastball and nailing it.
He’s got a long way to go in other facets of his game but his hitting is coming along. Just needs some baseball intelligence and that might come with more experience and age.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 7, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I se him as a great athlete, but with terrible baseball instincts
Its like he never played little league or something. He has no head for the game, but the physical tools are impressive. Problem is having a head for the game matters more!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Sep 7, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Add me to the list of those wondering the same thing.
I remember that when Stras signed – a NL scout went through the Nats and gave his assessment of where they were (might have been reported on the Post…I cant recall). They went through the ‘cornerstones’ of the team. In terms of outfield, he mentioned Hammer and Morgan…but Dukes was an obvious omission of players who would be with the Nats for years to come. I got to thinking that if other NL scouts see that – then Im sure that the Nats probably do too.
I wouldnt mind holding him for a few more seasons given that he seems to be keeping out of trouble off the field. His on field performances have been patchy. I think its one of those situations where you can probably afford to take a chance on Dukes for the high upside and see how you go. There isnt too many that would come in and do a better job on the team – probably with the exception of TAWH and Padilla – bit both wont give you the kind of the explosive play that Dukes could. As others have said – he’s only 25 – which is young for a hitter. I think id be willing to give him another season before making some hard choices on his future. By then, we should be in the playoff race and a veteran corner man might tip the balance on the WS. :)
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Aug 23, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the way you think
Yes, we need to make a serious playoff run sometime soon. Rizzo is going to have to do some work with the starting rotation this winter. Four rookie starters is just a ridiculous situation.
Anyway, if Flores comes back healthy next year, the Nats would have enough good hitters in the line-up that they could afford to give Dukes another long look next year. With Morgan, Zimm, Dunn, Willingham and Flores in the batting order and probably Guzman, you’re looking at a very potent group. We don’t need Dukes to be a superstar. He doesn’t have to carry the team but he does need to hit better than .240. If he could hit .265-.270 with 15-20 HR and maybe 20 SB (without all the pickoffs), that would really solidify another spot in the line-up.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Aug 23, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both Rizzo and Kasten today stated clearly that a veteran pitcher is necessary...some thought from their comments they clearly had someone in mind...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Aug 23, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems consistent
A verteran for the rotation and someone to the pen. Some middle infield help. I simply have not heard Rizzo say that corner outfield needed fixing which leads me to believe that they are willing to have Dukes or someone like TAWH there for another season. And to be honest, its not the main priority – if we can sort out the rotation and pen, then we could easily trade for a decent corner outfielder (although Syracuse seem to grow them on trees). J-Max has also been mentioned…and who knows, maybe next season will see someone like Burgess emerge from the pack. While im yet to be sold on Dukes as a long term option – we could probably live with him there for another season while we stabilize some of the glaring holes in the team. I think it would be the last position id fix actually – as middle infield would be next on the list outside of pitching.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Aug 23, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just one veteran pitcher?
I’d take two. Odalis is available. KIDDING!
I like Stamen. Detwiler needs to put on muscle. Too freaking skinny to hold up for 200 innings. Same with BallyStar.
by ROSCOEtheNATSfan on Aug 23, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think one for the Rotation; one for the Pen.
Definitely need a top of the order starter. Someone to eat innings and give us a chance to win every 5th day and teach the kids. Sadly, those guys arent cheap and im not sure they are around this offseason.
I think we need a genuine closer. Which would take the pressure of Macca who could be a setup man and move everyone else back. Maybe bring up another kid or two in the pen to learn.
Ive posted this before but im hoping the rotation for next season is something like:
1) Vet Starter
2) Lannan
3) Stammen
4) Olsen
5) Stras (but could be someone else in the beginning of the season like Mock).
Right/Left/Right/Left/Right…. :)
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Aug 24, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he just needs a fire lit under him?
I find it interesting to see Elijah’s stats right after this topic was posted on Aug. 22. In the 12 games since then, he has at least one hit in 10 of those games. In another game, he only had a pinch-hit appearance and he walked. So he’s only been kept off base in just one game of the last 12.
He has 5 multi-hit games over that stretch. He’s 16 of 34 for a .471 average. He has raised his season average to a respectable .260, from the woeful .233 on Aug. 22. This is the best he has hit since mid-April.
Does he look at Yahoo Sports and thus federalbaseball.com? Maybe, maybe not. But clearly something woke him up after Aug. 22. I’m not sure what this means though. Is he a player that needs someone else to push him to perform? That might not be a good sign. But if someone on the team recognizes this, then they could help to keep Elijah motivated and focused on his game.
Bob Carpenter and Rob Dibble mentioned that Dukes is not a true everyday player in terms of durability. He just can’t seem to stay free of injury if he starts every day. They said that he probably needs at least one day off every week of the season to remain healthy. That sounds about right. That would also free up some playing time for the utility players/backup OFs that the Nats have next year, whether it’s Maxwell, Padilla, Willie Harris and/or someone else. This type of schedule could help keep the bench guys sharp.
IF he could maintain a .270-.280 average consistently, he could be the long-term answer at RF. He does have 52 RBI with less than 300 AB. That’s a pretty solid number for a no. 6 hitter.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Sep 7, 2009 7:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The RBI stat really sticks out......how many could he have added if anyone was on base ahead of him recently??
And giving him a game off here and there does keep the bench a little more fresh….
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 7, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be following closely what he does in the DWL...he does seem oddly fragile for such an impressive athlete...
…wondering if playing all year round this year will hinder or help his health…if he figures out how to recognize the breaking stuff, the NL may be in trouble next year…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Ed Chigliak on Sep 7, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there are questions mentally
Mentally this can be a tough game. Can he tough out a slump? Can he make adjustments? I think those will be some of the things he needs to work out to be successful – just because he’s a decent athlete…well, that doesnt guarantee success.
He needs to learn how to be a baseball player. Having said that, I’ve been happy that he has not gotten into too much trouble (on and off the field). That shows me he is willing to try and turn things around and show a bit of maturity. He’s still very young – got plenty of time to be a great player.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 7, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do not think Dukes ia the long term answer in RF
but, I am willing to give him another year to prove me wrong. But I still think my platoon idea mentioned above is worth considering.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Sep 7, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the platoon, except for the part of Hammer in RF. ....(and maybe Maxwell at all)
I guess I want a RFer like Vlad so bad, that seeing Dukes’ arm in highlights makes me want to believe. I want a RFer who nobody runs on, and if they do, they get nailed at the plate and gunned down taking the extra base.
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 7, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like Austin Kearns....
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 8, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, nothing sounds like Austin Kearns. Austin Kearns is not the answer to any question.
Austin Kearns is not “The Most Interesting Man in the World” (Dos Equis radio beer commercial….)
Austin “I haven’t been able to do anything” Kearns is not wait and see…
No, not Austin Kearns at all….
"I Never Want the First Pick Again."
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 8, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When are we having the 'Austin Kearns is gone' party?
Got to raise my glass of beer and say “thank $%^& for the end of that era…”
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 8, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kearns is already done, realistically
His thumb injury is not healing the way everyone thought it would. Given that he wasn’t playing a big role anyway and that the team almost certainly will NOT pick up the $10 million option for 2010, Kearns has most likely played his last game as a Nat.
He won’t be getting any $10-million deals from anyone else either, not after batting an ugly .209 over 166 total games the last two seasons. He’ll be lucky to get a guaranteed major-league contract this winter. I could see him getting a veteran’s minimum contract/minor-league deal from some team hoping that he could be a useful backup OF/late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-hitter, but nothing more than that.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Sep 9, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. I small piece of my heart feels a bit sorry for him…but it will soon pass with time.
If he goes on an bats 400 and hits 25 HRs for another team (lets say the Mets)…im passing the hat around for a professional hit. We all chip in…we can get a professional to do the job right…
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
by Mezza on Sep 10, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish Kearns luck...
…he was always more promising than productive and seemed like a decent guy who played the game “right” (whatever that means). I think the collision with NJ in 2006 maybe rattled him, too, a little. He still managed to be a league-average hitter in 2007, while injuries (possibly including ill-advised “playing through the pain”) dogged him this year and last, finally allowing him a graceful exit from the Nats on the DL. His recent UZR/150 numbers are still strong, saving more than ten runs over league average (that’s a full win), albeit a bit lower this year in limited playing time. I hope he finds a job somewhere—just not on the Nats. We don’t have room for a veteran corner OF defensive replacement. We’ll always have your walkoff single… Enjoy your check.
"Horrible. Just Horrible." --ROSCOEtheNATSfan
by Doghouse on Sep 10, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frankly, teams could do a lot worse than Kearns
He is not a major reason we lost so much the last two years. His defense is still well above average according to every metric, and he can still tell balls from strikes better than most. He just gets nothing from his contact. So somebody next season will gamble on him and possibly get a positive surprise. But, ie wont be with us.
Bye Austin. I liked watching you play RF, and you seem like a really decent dude. Good luck at your new team. Do not worry you’ll get to play in a postseason now, you just wont play everyday.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
by PhDBrian on Sep 13, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dukes
Dukes has to go.Trade him as soon as possible
rae
by robert1954 on Sep 15, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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