Very interesting Adam Dunn article from last year
Is 2009 his best season ever? Perhaps, or perhaps the luck is just starting to normalize.
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/2008/12/29/adam-dunns-rotten-2008-luck
According to this article, with normalized BABIP and HR/FB ratio(he hit 16 balls over 400 feet that went for outs) in 2008 Dunn's approximated stat line was 265/420/600(as opposed to his actual: 236/386/518)
2008 approximated line: 265/420/600
2009 line: 280/405/568
Okay, so it isn't perfect, but it's pretty darn close. ( 15 point BA differential, 15 point OBP differential, 32 point slg pct differential) Let us also not forget, that the season is stll occuring. It is very possible that Dunn ends up with numbers extremley similar to his normalized 2008 stat line.
The most telling part of the article though, is this:
"Granted, Dunn's career SLG is "only" .518. But normalize his 2008, and it is over .540 in 4 of the last 5 years".
2009 slugging pct: 568
If we normalize the HR/FB Rate without factoring in BABIP, the numbers look like this:
246/ 397/571
without the BABIP, the batting average is much lower, but his 0BP and slg pct when normalized by the HR/FB ratio are practically identical... coincidence?
Some very good baseball journalism here, in my estimation... is the man psychic? No... just using good old fashion SABRmetrics that some still maintain(unbelievably) "don't tell us anything"...
Perhaps Adam Dunn's career season isn't so shocking after all.
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correction
16 balls over 400 feet that werent homeruns… not outs necessarilly, thats, if anybody is reading:)
by martins on Aug 6, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just came to read this...
Because I’ve always been an Adam Dunn fan despite morons rubbishing him because ‘he strikes out loads and doesn’t like baseball’.
And yes I found this article quite interesting, nothing more to add really but thought I’d comment.
by Ohpityme on Aug 8, 2009 6:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I rubbish Dunn because of his defense, not his Ks or his attitude....
I think his attitude is great, and if he’s due for a little love from the regression-to-the-mean gods, BRING IT! Heh, I can sympathize with the 16 400-footers not going out after he basically fouled-off that HR in the LF corner against the Pirates…
"It's not a secret, you don't need to be an expert on math to know that walks plus errors equals runs...." --Mannyger Acta
by Doghouse on Aug 8, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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