Adam Dunn = 40/100?
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
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PrintEver since Adam Dunn signed with DC, the fans of the Washington Nationals have been told, "40/100!" Yeah, he strikes out and he's a defensive liability in left, but, "40/100". Sure he's getting $10M a year on a team with a $60M+ payroll, but the team needs a big middle of the order bat...40/100! Q: But why have a 40 HR guy with 100 RBI's on a 100-loss team...A: 40/100. Dunn's just 1 RBI away from 100, but he's 3 HR's away from 40 dingers with 17 games left to play, and if he reaches 40 HR's he'll be one of only 4 people to have hit 40 or more in six-straight seasons, and if he does it again in 2010, he'll be one of only two, just Adam Troy "Big Donkey" (DCMD) Dunn and George Herman "Babe" Ruth, with 40 HR's in seven-straight...Here's how and when Dunn hit #40 in each of the last 5 seasons...
August 30, 2004: Houston Astros' right-hander Peter Munro gives up a two-run HR to Felipe Lopez after a Ryan Freel double opens the fifth inning, making it 3-2 Astros, and one out later it's 3-3 when Adam Dunn hits his 40th HR off the season, a solo shot in the 130th game of 2004. Dunn would go on to hit 6 more in September for his career high total of 46 HR's...
October 2, 2005: Game 162. Cincinnati at St. Louis. Adam Dunn hits a solo HR in the third inning of the last game on the Reds' schedule against the first-place Cardinals, who would end up losing the '05 NLCS to Houston in 6 games. Cards' right-hander Matt Morris surrenders his 22nd HR of '05, and Dunn, has two straight 40 HR seasons.
September 8, 2006: In the 141st game of the Cincinnati Reds' '06 season, Adam Dunn takes Pirates' right-hander Brian Rogers deep to right field in Great American Ballpark in the seventh inning of a 9-1 Reds' win. It's the second of only two HR's Dunn hits in September and the last he hits that year...
September 19, 2007: Adam Dunn needed 4 HR's in September 2007 to hit 40 and he got the fourth in Wrigley Field off Cubs' lefty Ted Lilly, who gave up the solo shot to right to give Adam Dunn four-straight seasons of 40 or more. Dunn's solo shot was good for one of the two runs the Reds scored that day in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs. It was the last HR Dunn hit that year in the 152nd game of the season.
September 27th, 2008: In the next-to-last game of the Arizona Diamondbacks' 2008 season, Adam Dunn, who had been acquired by the D-Backs from the Reds on August 11th, hits hit 8th HR for Arizona and his 40th HR of 2008, a solo shot off Colorado left-hander Glendon Rusch in a 6-4 Arizona win over the Rockies. It's Dunn's 4th HR in 14 games to get him up to 40 for the fifth-straight season...
?'s For The DC Faithful...
• Will Adam Dunn reach 40 HR's for the sixth-straight season to tie Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa?
• Will it mean anything to you if he breaks the record next year as a National?
• Do you think he'll be traded before he hits #40 next season?
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Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn needs to be traded as soon as possible.He’s not what the Nat’s need at this time.We need to stop the bleeding.We need good outfielders,a short stop and 2nd basemen.Also alot of good pitchers.
rae
I was actually pretty sure they wouldn't deal Dunn at the deadline...
There was much too big a deal made of his signing to dump him a year into a 2-year deal, but if he does next year what he’s done this year, the Nationals may be able to get a good return on the big lunk…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 4:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nationals trying for last place
The Nationls should let the new guy’s get more playing time.I think it would be fun to see what they can do.
rae
+1 on the kids. I think Maxwell and Desmond should be in the lineup every day...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 4:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
trading adam Dunn makes no sense, hes 29
build around him. IThe guy is having the best year of any free agent signing. In fact, he’s having one of the best years in baseball period, and people are begging to have him traded….
When Guzman’s salary comes off the books that frees up 8 mil(right?) for some pitching… if you get some decent starting pitching on this team Adam dunn helps you make the playoffs.
I know no one believes me when I say that, but I promise it’s true.
Resign Dunn after 2010, sign a pitcher or 2. Strasburg, FA pitcher, J-Zimmermann. Hmmmm.
Zimmermann still elads the team in Ks which is downright sad any way you slice it.
I think Martis is Top 3 in wins too...Remember him....
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 4:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
harangggggggggggggggggggggggg
sure, his appendix ’sploded. even still….
+...$20m? I think that's approximately what's coming off the books this winter...
…that should buy some pitching…and…if Dunn wants to stay…?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 4:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I saw Dunn make a diving stop last night...... I'm sold...
''...we were tied for first place for the wild card, and we can't have September call-ups. We couldn't do any trades. They didn't want us to win.''
by cat daddy3000 on Sep 17, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
heh well thats the other thing
since becoming the everyday first basemen he has been pretty good over there. His 1b numbers won’t reflect it yet, because when he was adjusting to the position he was miserable at it. But in time, he probably will just be an average defensive first basemen.
a thought occurs
what do you guys think of giving away guzman as a pure salary dump?
I’d love to dump him but it’s a guaranteed contract so…who knows.
Maybe a team with no SS and too many overpaid pitchers will trade one for Guzman and it’ll be a push as far as salary goes next year. But doubtful. I like the second base option.
really? wow
that might be the worst contract i’ve seen since vernon wells
BOWDEN!!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 17, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Statistically Guzman is an average major league player
Slightly below average defensively, and slightly above average offensively for a SS. He is worth keeping!!! WAR is 1.2 so he is slightly overpaid. Nothing special, but likely better than any youngster we could bring up. Plus, his salary is such that we could not get much in trade for him right now.
Dunn, on the other hand, is terrible defensively. His UZR/150 at first is slightly worse now than it was a month ago. His bat is ungodly for sure, but defensively he is the worst gloveman in baseball at any position. He is way overpaid so I doubt he could be traded for much unless he goes to become a DH in the AL.
I can’t find any World Series team that had a well below average defensive firstbasemen the year they went. But, he is a nice guy and wants to do well. So lets keep him as well. (sometimes I want to trade him though)
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
You can fill your team with christian guzman's
I’ll fill my team with Adam Dunn’s… let’s see who wins a championship first:)
seriously though(and this is no knock against you)… I have an extremley hard time believing Guzman is an average anything. If you can find me a player with as many AB’s that is having a worse season i’d like to see him, but I highly doubt that person exists. I raised this point yesterday, Guz has a real chance of finishing the season with a sub 700 OPS. That is astonishing. I can think of maybe… 2 other everyday players who might fit that bill.
Personally, I don’t very much trust Zone rating, for a variety of reasons. It also seems to me that WAR is a defense intensive stat.
I have no problem with defensive metrics in general( I love runs saved) I just think they are in their infancy, and still need work. Think about all the alterations a stat like RC(runs created) went through in a 15 year period. It just seems to me offensive metrics are better for the simple fact that they have been tested and re tested to get the best results. Defensive metrics will get there i’m sure, and i’m not saying they deserve no respect, but I view them cautiously.
okay so I missed the mark a bit
but hey, I was guessing heh.
Currently, there are 13 players in baseball with sub 700 OPS’s. And two of them ( Upton And Rios) Are simply abboration years. Guzman does this a lot. As Ed pointed out yesterday, this would be Guzman’s 6th(!) sub 700 OPS season. Beyond that, he stinks with the glove.
If that is an average player, than the only conclusion I can come to is that most baseball players stink. And while that may be the case, that dosen’t mean Guzman is worth having.
To look at it in the form of analogy, If the average grade on the geography test was a 65, and you scored a 68, did you do well on the test?
Dunn
I’m not a Nationals fan, but AM a Dunn fan. The dude homers and walks a ton. He adds good value to an offense.
Admittedly, he probably is best suited for DH.
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