Winter roster moves and the 2010 season: Your thoughts?
by Potomac Fan on Sep 29, 2009 12:48 PM EDT
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PrintIt's a universally held notion that the Nats need to fix (replace?) the starting rotation before the 2010 season. The bullpen has some good pieces in MacDougal, Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett so GM Mike Rizzo probably only needs to fill out the depth of the bullpen. We don't need another overhaul like we had twice this year. CF was a huge problem until the Nyjer Morgan trade. Likewise, 2B and/or SS was seen as a problem area but Ian Desmond could be ready to step up full-time next year. Pete Orr and Mike Morse may be able to provide decent support as backups/utility players. So that leaves the starting rotation as the area most in need of attention.
(cont.)...
John Lannan is really the only effective starter of the current group. Scott Olsen struggled early this year and then pitched better after his first injury, before succumbing to a season-ending injury later on. Livan Hernandez has some good games but he also has some truly awful ones. All the rookies who have been in and out of the rotation have shown some flashes of greatness but more often than not, they have shown an unwillingness to pitch to contact. The result is walk after walk, or 2-0 counts that lead to fastballs down the middle of the plate or hanging curve balls that get hit hard. Jordan Zimmermann is said to have the best "stuff" among all of the starters but he will probably miss the entire 2010 season because of his elbow surgery.
Of course Stephen Strasburg will be working over the fall and winter in an attempt to make the big league roster out of spring training. Even if he does, will he really be a star right out of the gates? Maybe, maybe not. I don't think anyone can really say either way. We just have to wait and see.
So we have John Lannan, who is probably a no. 4 starter on a contending team (his walk-to-K ratio is not very good and his BAA is kind of high at .270), Scott Olsen who is a no. 5 on a contending team and Livan Hernandez who might be a no. 4 or 5 on a contending team, or not on such a team at all. You can't pencil in Strasburg as the team's ace until he proves himself in real games. He might not even be on the major league team until mid-summer.
Thus, we have a gaping hole at the no. 1 and no. 2 spots. Will Ted Lerner go out and get a veteran free agent pitcher or trade for one? The offense is certainly good enough to win now, as long as Nyjer Morgan stays healthy. (Sliding cleats-first could help ensure that he stays in the line-up.) Morgan's presence will also shore up the defense. Desmond, Orr and Morse should help too. It's probably too much to expect Lerner to remake the team by getting a tandem like Schilling and Randy Johnson a la Arizona earlier this decade. Would it be worthwhile to get at least one established veteran, preferably a true ace? And then "hope" that Strasburg is as good as advertised?
Consecutive 100-loss seasons is just flat-out embarrassing. If Lerner and Rizzo don't find a real ace, then we could see another 100-loss season in 2010. And that would truly be a joke. So what do you think? Any realistic chance for Rizzo to remake this rotation over the winter and put together a solid group for 2010? What are some of the possibilities? Any disgruntled Cy Young winners out there (hopefully under the age of 30) looking to get traded from their current teams? Arizona showed that an organization can turn around a franchise very quickly if you can get two great pitchers. Having one great pitcher and two very good pitchers would also work. I really don't want to see the Nats field another AAA team next year. (Though the offense had some quality veterans, the starting rotation consisted of four rookies and one 2nd-year player for the majority of the season.)
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Add to that a possible need at Rightfield...
Can Dukes do it? Let’s hope he starts to figure it out in the DWL and keeps a cool head.
I hope Dukes can stay. So much raw talent.
Stammen looked good last night on the pregame show. He’ll be in the mix for sure.
Yea, he's got a future in broadcasting if he wants it. The TV loves him and he's very comfortable when he's on...
I hope for good things from Dukes, but I don’t expect them.
Why may I ask?
“I hope for good things from Dukes, but I don’t expect them.”
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 29, 2009 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know how to describe it...
Dukes has all the talent in the world physically, but he’s not mentally with it all the time. You can see he’s mental mess ups compound themselves and than he tea pots ( explodes) I see this with a couple of players, Detwiler, Bergman, Chippard, Guzman and Ballister. Bergman, Guzman and Dukes are the biggest worries because of they’re age. Guzzy being the biggest worry to me. Something tells me with him that if he doesn’t somehow buy into the switch to 2nd that he’ll be useless to us. Bergman is another head case to the tenth degree. He doesn’t seem to believe he belongs in the MLB. Dukes battles a few other demon on top of a lack of confidence. He’s a classic case of Bi-Polar individual and he may never truly believe he can keep the devil down inside of himself. I’ve battled this myself and have taught performance in a different arena, to be sure, but the similarity are the same. Talent + muscle memory + belief + mental investment = good performance in short. When I’ve given advise about stage presence to people or groups I’m looking at all the above qualities to initiate a proper response to the performance. More often than not the physical aspects of the performance are there but they can or they are weakened by the lack of mental strenghth. The first thing I’ll tell someone is to imagine they’re out in the rain. Instead of being bothered by the rain, start to play out in the rain in your mind. All these kids simple put get stage fright. Very debilitating. Dukes needs to invest in his belief of himself. What? Yea, he need to believe in himself. Guzman is another case all together, but I’ll leave that for another day.
Dukes is 25
I think Guz is like 30 something.
Big age difference in terms of a ball player. I take your point about mental mistakes – but Dukes at 25 is still a very young guy and has room to improve and grow up (when I was 25, I was a lot more immature than I am now). It’s quite possible he could be a late bloomer and be an excellent steady hitter at 30.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
Dukes is 25 for sure
Hey, I’m hoping right along with you, but I’m saying the odds are against him. If he’s battling depression/bi-polar issues even with medication the road is that much harder than I person with normal brain chemistry. I do believe he can gain the self awareness to kick his bad mental habits. Boy, the way he went for that lat out last night. Let’s hope and pray he can do it…
What FA would want to come here?
I know that “money talks” but what FA would come here if he had a chance to play for a contender? I think we’ll have a hard time convincing anyone but the 3rd or 4th tier of free agents to come here.
Ideal world: Pitching: acquire 2 veteran starters; one can be Livan since he does throw mostly quality starts. Put Olsen on a short leash in spring training. Shoot for Lannan, Olsen, FA1, FA2 and the 5th spot goes to Strasburg if he’s ready or the winner from Detwiler, Stammen, Martin, Balester, Martis, Chico and the rest of our mediocre arms. Convert the rest to bullpen guys, AAA or trade them for hitting.
bullpen: Get at least 2 veteran bullpen arms in the off season in the mold of Beimel. Clippard and Burnett stay, MacDougal gets a non-guaranteed deal and competes with Storen for a spot, you put the rotation competition losers (Stammen, Martin possibly) as long men. The rest are AAA or gone.
Inf: Morse and Orr and Desmond make for excellent backups and replacements for what we had this year in Belliard, Hernandez and Harris. Sign a shortstop, move Guzman to 2nd (its not that big a move) and groom Desmond for the future.
of: Replace Dukes; you need more than 8 homers out of your right field position. Find a decent backup outfielder; I think Maxwell has proven he can’t play at this level. Bernadina should be the 4th of.
by tboss@bossconsulting.com on Sep 29, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions
Maxwell is one of the better defensive ofs in baseball.
Have you not seen how well Seattle did this year with a team of Justin Maxwells playing all over the field. Maxwell deserves to at least be a #4 of, but I would start him full time against lefthanders. Granted he will never win a silver slugger, but defense is proving to be as important as offense in baseball in recent years.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Teixeira is Exhibit No. 1
Didn’t the Nats actually offer him more money than the Yankees last winter? He knew that the Yankees could be contenders while the Nats were likely to be wallowing in mediocrity or worse. Unfortunately Rizzo will run into a similar situation this winter unless he can pull off a trade and the pitcher doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Sep 29, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys are giving up on the young starting pitchers far to quickly!!!
Here is tom glavine’s career stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glavito02.shtml
go look at his first few seasons in the majors. in 1990 he was three years in and went 10-12 with an era of 4.28 and had a 129 to 78 k to BB ratio. he was 24 that year. he is a likely Hall of Fame pitcher with 305 career wins.
Randy Johnson
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml
he was 26 years old before his career era was less than 5. He did not have his very first season with an era of less than 3.5 until he was 29 years old. He had pitched over 1000 innings at that point of his career. At 28 years old his whip was 1.417 and that was the second lowest total of his career to that point.
Jamie Moyer
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml
he didn’t have back to back seasons without an era of nearly 5 until he was 33 years old.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
ooops hit post to fast
my point is that very very few pitchers that someday dominate do so in their early 20s. Greinke still has a career losing record and will win the Cy this season (or should). Last season was the first season his era was less than 3.5. Cliff Lee became great at the age of 29. He had only one season prior to that with an era below 4 with more than 10 starts. Sabathia was 6 years in before he was better than an average pitcher.
My point is that it usually takes 100s of innings if not a 1000 or more innings of Major League experience to become a good major league pitcher.
lets give the youngsters until they are at least 26 or 27 until we give up on them.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
some will still make it at 29 or older like Moyer even after we give up on them.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
i agree with your sentiment, Brian
but why put Moyer in that group, he isn’t in the same universe as the first two.
I’ve said it before and ill say it again
harang.
I also would hold onto scott olsen, I would dump lannan(if possible) Hes a contact pitcher who has a tendency to get wild, not a good combination
thats true
but moyer is god awful…
i was sugar coating before:)
Moyer has been hardly "god Awful" for muchof his career
Check out from 1996 to 2003. Any team would would take those stats anyday. all but one year he was below 4 in ERA while in the AL during the steroid era. Plus, he won 20 or more twice.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
You have a good point, but...
you’re also confirming that the major-league Nats should not be relying on a whole group of these guys all at once. I think most of them should have stayed in the minors this season. It was only the poor roster moves last winter that resulted in the need to call up so many of these rookies. You can afford to have a rookie or two as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter IF you have quality veterans at the top of the rotation but not nos. 2 through 5. Or actually nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5.
These guys are just too young to be starting in the major leagues. I don’t think the Nats could rely on all of them for next season. Maybe if they have FA1, Lannan, Strasburg, Olsen and Hernandez, the team may not have to rely on any of them. Leave one or two in the bullpen as mentioned above and let the others develop in the minors for a few more years.
On a separate note, it’ll be really interesting to see if Storen can make the jump to the majors next season. Even if he does make the team out of spring training, it’s best not to use him as the closer. We saw Hanrahan crack under the pressure this year. Even Mariano Rivera had a couple years where he could operate as the set-up man for John Wetteland (the former Expo) until he could adjust to all the intangibles of the major league game. That could be a good path for Storen if he’s the real deal. Same with Strasburg. Pencil him in as the no. 4 or no. 5 starter at the beginning and see how he develops.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
by Potomac Fan on Sep 29, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Feel much the same PF
But as ive said before – I think we found a few keepers this year. For me we need a bonafide #1 starter and Ive had trouble finding who that might be (but isnt Livan…sorry).
1) FA Starter.
2) Lannan
3) Stammen
4) Olsen
5) Stras
I think Stammen has done enough to earn another shot and has, at times been very effective. That said, I’d like to see him a bit more consistent before he gets the gig. Id prefer Stras at 5 in order to limit his innings but agree that its best to see how he goes and take it easy with him. I think Det has been outstanding since he has been back and if he carrys this forward into next season…he could be one to watch. Olsen should be able to bounce back once healthy and I believe he pitched most of the year hurt. Dont forget I would expect J-Zim to be back at some point towards the end (maybe to take over from Stras when his innings are up).
Bullpen:
Storen as well should be a middle man in order for him to start off in situations where the game isnt as much on the line…which is why I think the team needs a genuine closer and move Doodle back to setup. From there Clip becomes Mr 7th, and Mock or Bergy comes in at long relief. Burnett the lefty stays as is. It a bullpen with good depth…which is an insane thought given how bad its been sometimes this year.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
true, but olson, perez, and DC kinda forced us to bring them up.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Completely forgot about DC
Until you just mentioned those initials, I had completely forgotten all about Cabrera. I guess I had successfully blocked out that bad memory.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
I'm tired of watching him.
Didn’t he pitch ONCE for the D-Backs, if I recall? Hmm… [checks baseball-ref…]
11 IP in 6 G, 8 ER on 11H, 7BB, 7K, 2 HBP, for a 69 ERA+ and a 6.55 ERA. That’s actually worse than when he was with the Nats. Well, his K/BB is up to 1-1, so I guess that’s better.
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I just remembered the Bowden factor
Though DC failed miserably, that failure was foreseeable by any casual observer not named Bowden. I think everyone knew that signing DC was the baseball equivalent of a lottery ticket. Good potential upside but incredibly long odds of that happening. So I would blame the DC fiasco on Bowden for signing him in the first place.
Olsen was more of a bad luck case. He didn’t have a history of injuries until this season but he would have been a mediocre pitcher at best. Including 2009, Olsen’s career ERA is an unspectacular 4.77 and his BAA is .274. Maybe that’s slightly better than what some of the rookies did this year but not by much.
I don’t know what was going on with Odalis Perez. I see that the 2008 Opening Day starter never did sign with another team in 2009. Yeah, that strategy worked out really well for him.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
Agree
Bowden should have been killed.
Olsen still has a chance to prove himself and Ive pencilled him in for next years rotation – he can be a better pitcher than his 4.77 ERA might suggest. But I think he’ll need to compete for the job with a host of other guys now.
As for Perez… meh. If players want to play these kind of games – they can get stuffed. Next season we’ll be stocked with credible starters and hopefully a decent bullpen…and these mercenary-mediocre types can fall where they belong – the independent league (that includes you too Crow).
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
I hear Costco is hiring...
‘cause that’s where Crow is going to be working next year.
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
Crow signed with the Royals and may be pitching in the Arizona Fall League against our guys.
I hope we shell him.
I hope Storen fires one at his chin...
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
The more I read the more I think they will non-tender Olsen.
This does not sound like a GM that aims to keep a pitcher like Olsen…
Q: Scott Olsen. Any report on how his rehab has started, and what is your thinking about his arbitration case? Because that is a guy you’ll have to make a decision on.
Yeah. We get a report on him every day. He’s on his throwing program down in Florida. He’s progressing normally. We’re going to have to watch him throughout the offseason and watch where he’s at to make the decision to tender or non-tender him.
Q: So that’s a case where you’re gonna have to see some sort of physical improvement?
Certainly. Don’t you think so?
Q: Well, there are some guys you’d say, ‘Yeah, we know he’s gonna be fine for 2010.’ But with him there are more questions there. That’s what I’m getting at.
Well sure. A left-handed pitcher with a left-handed shoulder injury who hasn’t pitched in three months — you certainly need to see where he’s at health-wise to render the decision on that.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/10/so_heres_the_full_lets-begin-t.html
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
Sounds like a reasonable approach
Olsen is far from a dominant pitcher so there isn’t that much incentive to take a risk on that shoulder. Now if we were talking about Jake Peavy here, Rizzo would wait until the last possible moment to see if he was really healthy. But with Olsen, who has been a very inconsistent pitcher, the Nats may not lose much if they don’t keep him. A couple of the rookies may have caught up to Olsen this year, maybe J.D. Martin and Craig Stammen.
Olsen is at most a no. 4 or no. 5 starter on a good team, and that’s if he’s healthy. If he’s not healthy, well, then that would make him another Shawn Hill. Or John Patterson. Or…
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Washington, first in war, first in peace, last in the NL East :(
Yep
The other option is to non-tender and then look to sign on a minor league deal with incentives…if he lights it up and is healthy its a bonus – otherwise they could cut him loose easily.
Padilla walked into the Nats' clubhouse for the first time and said, "My God. I'm in heaven."
About the defenders
Believe it or not, but Christian Guzman was 5th among all players in number of Web Gems on ESPN this season. His UZR/150 in 2009 is the best he has had since becoming a NAT. This was his third best ever offensive season (with more than 400 at bats) since he came up in 1999. He is not a reason we lost 100 games. Nor is he the solution to fixing it. He is an average major league shortstop. Not special, but not bad. We could do much worse very easily.
We lost because we put one of the worst defenses in baseball behind one of the worst bullpens in baseball (for most of the season) and the youngest least experienced pitching staff. Our two worst fielders are Gonzalez and Dunn. Dunn is the worst fielder at any position in the game. The worst! I know you guys think he got better as the season went on, but his biggest defensive flaw is his range. He gets to nothing compared to the average first basemen. He has played firstbase for part of every season now since 2001. He just sucks at it, but he was worse in lf. DUNN’s WAR is 1.4 for the entire season which ties him for 179th in the game. Ronnie Belliard is worth 1.3 WAR right now and he did not play everyday. Coco Crisp was worth 1.4 WAR and only played in 49 games. Get the point. We will never win more than 81 games letting Dunn field at any position. He is that bad and wont likely get better!
Gonzalez is bad at every facet of the game and should probably never see another inning of major league play. He hurt us a lot whenever he played. Dukes was downright god awful when he played CF, but he has been adequate when a RF. His bat has been so so and his defense average in rf all round. Yet, his potential and age force me to give him more time, but he did suck overall this year. Willi Harris has been a bad defender everywhere but in LF. At Cf he has been bad this season. in LF he is gold glove quality. I have no idea how someone can be so good in LF, but bad in CF. He also stunk as a secondbasemen. So his glove hurt us most of the time he played.
What this team really needs badly for 2010 is a great defender to play second base. Someone who has the range to make up for Dunn being so darn bad at first!!!
A veteran SP who we can pencil in for an era below 4 would also be a huge boost. Livan should stay around because he can help teach the youngsters.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Olson could be that veteran with an era below 4.
but I suspect he will be more like a 4.50 era next season if he is healthy. he missed to much time, but I am inclined to let him pitch for us.
I think several of the youngsters should go into the BP until they can convince themselves they can get major league rs out, then we remake them into starters.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
agreed but
Dunn= outsanding hitter, atrocious fielder
Guzman= decent fielder(at best) )atrocious hitter
all things considered, Dunn more than wins that race.
I will continue whipping this horse and say that being great offensively is worrth more than being great defensively. For one thing, you get less chances in the field than you get Ab’s, and I would argue that the large majority of those chances(if you play there regularly) will be routine plays.
To put defensive metrics on equal footing with offensive metrics is to make a fundemental mistake, in my view.
As for how many games won with Dunn playing first, im not quite sure what you base that on..
but anyway… i renew my question(well, it was a statement before)
If I filled my team with Adam Dunn’s, and you filled your team with Cristian Guzman’s who would win a championship first?
okay so i was way off
you actually get many more chances(on average, without getting into what qualifies as a chance) than you do ab’s. I should probably research before i make some of these assertions, but hey, at least i correct myself when im off.
so thats something
at first base that is
the reason is kinda obvious, but i didnt type that, so.. im typing it now. your avg LF(dunn’s former position) gets between 200-300 chances(on average) With a season full of chances at first base, theres no reason to think his number’s wouldnt in prove.
he’s playing a less difficult position
Failing to catch a linedrive in LF usually results in a double or worse
Or you can turn a single into a double or worse easily, so a LFr’s range does matter. Dunn’s problem is a complete lack of range. So although he runs all out he simply does not get to balls that average players get. Each missed play is a double of worse, but since he knows he is bad he often would let balls fall in for singles and noit even ttry to catch them. At firstbase a blown play is often backed up by the secondbasemen and or RF. Many are also foul balls failed to be caught. So a lack of range at first is less damaging than in LF on a per play basis. Most blown plays are simply failed outs or infield singles (a few are doubles up the line). Firstbasemen do handle the ball tons, but range has less impact once the ball is initially caught by someone then thrown to first (the most common put out). Only a small number of throwing errors would be saved by a rangy firstbasemen. Tall can be more useful than rangy to prevent most throwing errors. Dunn fairs ok on thrown balls.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
being great offesnsively is not better than great defensively
The stats do not support your claim at all!!!! you have to look at runs added versus runs given up. According to WAR data, if you had 8 guys with Dunn’s exact 2009 stats playing every position on the field (not pitching) you would have a 58-62 win team on average (in this scenario I adjust for positional averages). You would lead baseball in runs but also have the worst ERA in baseball history (sound like the NATS this season a little).
Take Guzman’s averages over the last three years and he would make roughly a 66-70 win team.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
neither would win even 75 games, but guzman would win a game or so more than Dunn
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
it would be more fun to watch Dunn';s team though
and it surely would sell more tickets
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
im also not sure
why WAR is repeadetly cited and runs saved is nowhere to be found. If you are looking for anevidentiary metric, runs saved is about as solid as you can get.
People like WAR because it includes both offense and defense
To oversimplify, it’s generally something like (runs scored + runs saved) / 10, with some pluses and minuses depending on what position you play and exactly what you think “replacement level” is. In theory, it’s something you can use to make an apples-to-apples comparison between any two players.
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
nah, i get that
but my argument is that trying to put offense and defense together is misleading
Looking at defense and offense in isolation is misleading, too...
…it all depends on what question you’re trying to answer.
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
The sad thing
is if Dunn was an AL Dh he would be the most valuable DH in the AL. something like a 6-7 WAR player as a DH.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
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