Washington Nationals: Adam Dunn Talking Extension?
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 29, 2010 8:01 PM EST
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PrintThe Big Donkey. The Big Dunn-K. The Bigger Wilkerson or Big Wilkie for short, Adam Dunn, the Washington Nationals' first baseman, HR hitter, and resident big middle of the order bat, who is set to play out the second of a two-year deal he signed last winter, is apparently talking extension to keep him in DC beyond this season. MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling sent a message out via twitter which read, "Rizzo says Dunn 'is a guy that fits for us long-term.' Stopped just short of saying extension is being discussed." MLB.com's Bill Ladson went so far as to say, via his own Twitter feed, that, "1B Adam Dunn and the #Nats are taking about a contract extension." The 30-year-old, 6'6'', 240lb left-handed-hitting long ball specialist with a knack for the kind of long distance drives that put fans in seats and make old time fans whisper, "Hondo", played what could kindly be called "atrocious" defense last season, while hitting .267/.398/.529 with 29 doubles, 38 HR's and 105 RBI's, quickly becoming a fan favorite (and a stat-based-fan's worst nightmare) and just maybe charming his way from a 2-year/$20 M dollar deal to an extension. Oh, and apparently Dunn's got scoops too, as he told MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling at today's Nationals Caravan event, that the Nats, "...are Orlando Hudson's top choice," just a few minutes after DC GM Mike Rizzo confirmed the team's interest in Hudson and was quoted by Mr. Goessling as saying, "'I think we're close to (getting a middle infielder).'"
Is committing more money to Adam Dunn a good idea? Is he ready to be put on permanent DH status in the AL? Is he more valuable than the picks he'd bring or the prospects that could be had in return should they trade him? The Nats Caravan's got scoops...
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Dunn
Yes Yes he is defensively limited at first and terrible in the outfield but he more than makes up for it at the plate. We need him to protect Zimmerman in the lineup and draw walks that hopefully will get drove in (Willingham & Dukes) If we get picks they probably wouldn’t produce for 3 years or so and I think the Nats could possibly/hopefully contend 2011 or 2012. Extend Dunn 40 HR and 100 RBI guys are not easily replaced.
I don't see anyone like him in the farm system, yet...
Norris is close. nats won’t have someone like that for two to three more years…
I still think we should trade him
I hate to bang this drum over and over, but it seems to me the best move is to ship him to the AL. I do love Dunn, I love watching him hit, and I think he seems like a great and charming guy. However, he will start to decline over the next several years and if you believe the numbers (which personally I do) his defensive detractions almost erase his offensive contribution.
Rbolt has an arguable point that Dunn may have an effect on improving the people who hit around him in the order, which would add more to his value, although I’m not convinced of this.
Dunn has good trade value in the AL. There are a lot of teams who could use an upgrade at DH and we could get some good pieces in return.
www.TheNatsBlog.com
Extend him.....
We could always trade him if we had to but we need his bat in the lineup currently……….
Sign him to the extension
Last year before he moved to 1st I might have said trade him. I loved his old school style, the way he made pitchers work, and the way he crushed the ball. But as I’ve said before, watching him in left was plain embarrassing.
But now, as long as he’s playing 1st, as far as I’m concerned, he’s The Man!
I understand all the Saber Rattling, but I say the hell with the geeky stuff for right now. I like going to the park and watching a game where there is a chance of seeing this guy send a ball into orbit like I use to see Hondo do.
If the Nats were contenders and having a guy with a higher Um Um UTZ rating might put them over the top, it might be a different story, but they ain’t.
(plus, it seems to me, that having him under control for another 2 or 3 years increases his trade value over someone who would become a free agent the following year.)
Whose stats?
I’ve not seen any stats which would indicate that Dunn’s defense overcomes his offense. Baseball Prospectus has him contributing 47 runs over replacement as an offensive player, but costing the team 20 more runs with his defense, for an overall score of 3 wins, which is about right for a $10 million player.
Add to that the fact that he played his worst defense in the outfield, and improved significantly when put at first, and his defense projects to be even a smaller liability in the future.
Here’s the unmistakable truth: the Nats bats before Dunn arrived were miserable, scoring the 2nd fewest runs in the league. After Dunn arrived the Nats became a average-to-slightly-above-average hitting team.
Based upon remarks made at the Hot Stove Luncheon today, I get the impression that extension talks are ongoing and current. Dunn himself stood and eagerly applauded a question by fan who noted that he’d like to see Dunn retire as a National. I would too, for that matter.
this is
a no brainer extension… when you look at Dunn comparitively, there is little question that he’s one of the best offensive players in the game.
Bad defense, sure. But why is it that defense only players don’t ctach the same flack? Ever try telling baseball people that ozzie smith sucks? what kinda reaction did you get?
Absolutely ...contract extension for Dunn.
He improved his defense at first which wasn’t all that hard considering how bad it was in the filed. And I maintain that he bailed out Zim on more than one occasion when he was able to do that long stretch towards third. Short guys could not have done that. Nick Johnson could not have done that. (Sorry, Ed, but even you admitted that.)
Dunn’s fun to watch and his presence improves the pitching to Zim. Plus, his walks offer Willingham and Dukes a chance to bring him home. Who could ever forget ..or even believe it was possible..the time he scored from first? I suspect the fans in the stands could feel the ground rumbling that night! And the homers? Muy exciting.
Keep the Big Donkey in NatsTown a while longer!
the guy has HOF potential as a DH in the AL......
Why he came here in the first place is a huge mystery?
He more than met all expectations at the bat, last year
So why Ratzo can’t cut a deal with an AL contender willing to PAY UP to have the best potential DH in baseball….is a mystery? WHAT are these teams thinking?
I remember
Adam Dunn was excited to be part of Team USA for the World Baseball Classic because he had never had the opportunity to play in a postseason. A lot of teams wanted Dunn, but his K rate and defense worried a lot of people.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
More accurate to say "teams were interested in Dunn"
Meh. I was a bit surprised that the market for him wasn’t bigger than it was before he signed with Washington.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
A Run Saved Is The Same As A Run Earned
It absolutely doesn’t matter that Dunn’s defense is bad. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the saber crowd, it’s that you have to look at the total package, not only the offensive or defensive side only. And, you can’t look at production in a vacuum, you also have to look at cost. Dunn was a 1.2 WAR player last year, and he got $8 million. This year, he’s getting $12 million, so the Nats project him to be a 2.7 WAR player, which is optimistic (although CHONE has him at 3.1). So this contract is an overpay (most likely), but is probably worth it since the fans have taken to him and the Nats need to fill the seats. But what about for an extension? I’d say his production plus his old player skills mean we should be comfortable with something like another 2/$20. Anything more than that and it’s trouble.
Synonyms For Big...
Ample, Colossal, Copious, Gigantic, Hulking, Ponderous*, Tremendous…
No Extension Until a Proper Nickname is Established (The Above Being Summarily Rejected)…
*My Favorite, Work With It:…Pondo…???
The Two Minutes Hate Begins......NOW !!!
No synonyms required
We call him The Big Sexy…
by girlslovebaseball2 on Jan 30, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
The Nats should keep Dunn...
maybe he’ll do better playing first base than being in the outfield. Give him the extension without a no trade clause (hopefully), see how he does at first, and if necessary trade him down the road. I hope it wouldn’t come to that because I like seeing Dunn as a National (not so much when he was with the Reds playing regularly against the Cubs).
"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain
Also, remember, Dunn didn;t really have much of a Spring Training last year. Introduced to the Nats and then went to the WBC when somebody got hurt.
Full year of ST at 1B will be key. Did Marrero get an invite? I’d like to get a look at him.
Also, Bryce Harper’s first game was Friday night. Is there a Federal Baseball, Las Vegas bureau yet?
He's an IDIOT
I’ll give him a slight pass for signing here on the first go around…
But if a potential HOF DH……signs a second time to remain a Keystone BFD at 1b for the reigning WORST team in baseball…who’ll still be NL East bottom feeders for ??? more years….
He’s an IDIOT …..who is putting another nail in his HOF coffin every year he is here !!!!!!!!
Mamba's harmless if a little angry...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 30, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
The Next Positive Post from the Mamba Will be the First
I’m just sayin’
NO THANKS!!!!!
He was worth 1.2 WAR last season!!!! That is his value was 1.2 wins above replacement last season. NO THANKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF
Zim was worth over 6 WAR. Willingham was worth 2.3 with only 427 ABs. Willy Harris was worth slightly more in his limited time.
I know you guys do not believe this number, but it is the real true worth of Dunn all things being added together. His defense and baserunning both hurt his value hugely. This number is calculated by Baseball Info Solutions a for profit baseball stats company and provided online through Fangraphs.
this ESPN article explains WAR.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/insider/columns/story?id=4857777&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fhotstove09%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fid%3d4857777
The average major league starter is worth 2-3 WAR. DUNN is a below average player being paid like a superstar.
last 4 season of WAR for DUNN 2006=1.8, 2007=2.8, 2008=1.2, 2009-1.2
below average 3 of the last 4 seasons and he played all year… YUCK!!!!
No thanks!!!!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I would like to see that WAR explanation article
unfortunately I am not an ESPN inisder. So if you can explain the gist, or send it to me or something, i’d appriciate it.
But to be honest, I have a hard time figuring out why you hate Dunn so much. Especially while staunchly defending guys like Cristian Guzman who put up a staggering 0.9 WAR last season, according to the fangraphs info.
You also failed to mentioned that he is a projected 3.0 WAR or higher player next season. Like it or not ( again, i’m not sure why you wouldn’t) the SABR community at large feels that the move to first will drastically cut down on his defensive shortcomings, and I agree.
But why in a post about Dunn, and WAR, would you fail to bring up that projection for next year? Something tells me if it was 1.5 you would have mentioned it….
Lastly, since when do we base all of our decisions on one statistic, no matter how comprehensive? WAR may be one thing to look at. does this mean we just throw out his outsanding numbers in numerable offensive categories… It seems as though you are trying to say that WAR makes all other statistics irrelevant… are you?
Here’s an explanation of WAR: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb,211211
One thing PhDBrian forgot to mention is that Dunn played a combo of OF/1B last year. He was
-22.5 as an OF and -13.8 as a 1B or -36.3 UZR last year. Meanwhile, his 1B UZR/150 was -25. Now, if we assume he has another -25 defensive year next year and has the same offensive season, he would have a WAR of 2.3. And like martins alluded to, CHONE projects him at 3.1 WAR. It’s interesting that Brian compared Dunn to Zimmerman and Willingham, two of the best position players on the team. Z in particular is a monster. I think Brian’s attempt at the Jedi mind trick was interesting but misguided. Brian says no thanks, who would he suggest the Nats get to play 1B then?
by docholliday3 on Jan 30, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Nick John....sorry...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 30, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
1 picture of Nick in pinstripes should do it...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 30, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
the combination of his 1b and OF UZR to acct for his low WAR
is a good catch. Thanks for the article.
2.3 WAR would havemade him the 157th best hitter in baseball in 2009 with 500 or plate appearences
My problem with Dunn is that his bad glove negatively affects our young developing pitchers and it would be easy to find a better all round guy. He is the worst defensive firstbasemen who regularly plays by a pretty big gap (Billy Butler was second worst at -6.8 Dunn was as you said -13.8). Sure his defense plays better at first than LF, but it is still horrendous. I would be all behind him at first base if we had 5 high strike out veteran pitchers, but we have a control staff that needs quality defenders to be successful. Besides Zim, who is top notch, and morgan, we lack good quality defenders to help our youngsters and that is unwise.
I understand that Dunn is our full time firstbasemen this season. And I personlly like the guy as a person a ton, but lets find a better firstbasemen long term and not give him an extension. Or better yet lets trade him to a team that does not get Sabermetircs like the Royals or Mets and find a guy with some upside. I am sure he is worth more in trade than playing for us everyday.
As for CHONE guessing him at 3.1 WAR. I did not know that, but CHONE isalso the most optimistic system. They have his defense at -4.0 not -13.8 like it was at first last season. 2.3 WAR I’ll buy at first, but 3.1 WAR requires a 31 year old to have the best defensive season of his career.
For reference Adam Laroche was worth 2.4 WAR last season. Branyan was worth 2.8 WAR. If Jorge Cantu of the Marlins had played just first base (rather than a several hundred innings at third where he sucks defensively) He would have been worth 2.4 WAR. These are Dunns equivalent guys based on his 2009 performance at firstbase. We could do better because I ’ll bet some other team would overvalue him and overpay in a trade.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
3.3 WARP
Dunn’s PECOTA projection has him producing 3.3 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 69th best in the majors, with some other schmoes like BJ Upton and Aramis Ramirez. So is that now the most optimistic system? By the way, they are only projecting that Dunn will hit 32 homers, which is pretty remarkable for a guy that hasn’t hit fewer than 38 since 2003.
Well we are stuck with Guzman for this season as he is likely untradable with that salary
he is fair defensively, so he is not much of a burden to the young pitchers, and historically his WARs have been in the upper 2s when healthy, so 2009 is possibly an aberation caused by bad luck in the BABIP area. Dunn could net us far more in trade than he is worth to the team and is dreadful defensively, so he is a burden to the pitching staff. With the same hitting stats Dunn as a DH would have been the best in baseball last season. I am fairly sure somebody would want that alot in trade.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
his low WAR is not a negative on what kind of hitter he is
as his WAR is affected by his defense, not his offense. Regardless of how his defense suffers he is still one of the best hitters in the game, and I can offer a ton of offensive metrics to prove that.
as far as CHONE being too charitable, it projects guzman as a 1.8 next year… so either he is still not healthy, or it is not as charitable as you think it is.
saying that guzman’s bad season was caused by BABIP is inaccurate in my opinion… he dosen’t slug, he dosent get on base, and he dosent walk., and hes mediocore defensively at best… how good to you expect him to be?
The bottom line is, you dont just toss away one of the best hitters in the game because he has problems on defense… you work with him, and, failing that, you put him in a place which minimizes his defensive liability.
its also misleading to say he has to have the best defensive season
while that is technically true, hes never played a full season at first before… never spent a full spring training playing only first base… never concentrated specifically at that position. he could turn into a decent first basemen.
Actually CHONE is not the most optimistic system
Bill James doesn’t project WAR, but he triple slashes Dunn at .251/.398/.518 while CHONE has him at .246/.373/.494.
The trend in baseball is toward valuing defense, but the Nats obviously don’t enough, otherwise they would have traded Willingham and gotten a Morgan clone to play right field, with Dukes in left. And they would have signed Adam Everett to play short, and the list goes on. 1B is also the least important defensive position. Signing Dunn to an extension is inefficient (as was signing him in the first place), but it’s not going to kill this organization. It’s not going to turn our pitchers into pumpkins. Dunn is an average player, but those are important too. It would be better if he were cheaper, but at least the organization didn’t break the bank to bring him in. They are showing that they do have some idea of how to operate a baseball team, even if they overpaid for him. Plus, he’s good for the fan base, and the Nats need to build that up.
And I think you guys are overvaluing Dunn at DH
The trend in the AL seems to be to get guys who can play DH, but can also rotate in the field to give guys off days, like Nick Johnson. So I’m sure many teams would trade for him, but I doubt they’d give up as much as you guys think, especially since this is the last year of his contract.
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