The Hammer vs Bay
by PhDBrian on Jan 30, 2010 6:20 PM EST
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Dave Cameron over at fangaphs actually has the balls to say that Josh Willingham is nearly as good as Jason bay.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/willingham-and-bay
Although bloggers stuck on counting stats did not agree with him, I have to say his arguements are fairly solid. My own quick analysis shows Bay has had 516 more plate appearences than the hammer 2006-2009 add in park effects, and team quality differences and you have accounted for much of the difference in their counting stats (HRs, RBIs, Runs, etc) over that time. Note: Willingham is 5-6 runs per full season better defensively than Bay which closes the gap a little more. Bay is paid $66 million over 4 years and we get Hammer for $4.6 million! We have a steal of the highest order! Here is hope we give/get Hammer 600 At bats this season.
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Cameron
also writes for ESPN online, the Huffington post, and many others. He is on the short list of the top SABR writers today.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
And he's a Mariners fan
And you can’t have him.
I hope other teams buy into this if they want to trade for Willingham
If Rizzo holds onto Josh going into the season, I now have one of those side goals which make non-contending seasons more enjoyable. Bay vs Willingham is on! It will almost be like fantasy baseball lite – two teams in a single player keeper league. Considering I don’t actually play fantasy baseball, I think i can spare the time to root against Bay.
+1/2St.
by Positively Half St. on Jan 31, 2010 7:21 AM EST reply actions
Nearly all fantasy leagues are offense only and do not count walks
Bat vs Bat goes to Bay even after you adjust for park and team differences. But add in baserunning (not steals but advancing on the bases), and defense and the gap closes to something very small (far less than an inch). Yet, the salary difference is huge.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Trading Willingham would be a huge mistake!!! He is an above average player
being paid like a role player. Thus, he is a super steal! Not a star but a steal! And steals make signining stars possible.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I like that the team has Hammer at a discount
because that means the team gets a lot of bang for its buck. However, I like it more so because it increases Hammer’s trade value incredibly. The team has him at a bargain rate, but only for so long. If the Nats can trade him while his value is soaring, it’s an even smarter move than to keep him at a discount. It’s only a matter of time before Hammer’s defense completely disappears or he gets injured. When that happens, he won’t be worth squat.
I do not get the trade Willingham arguement.
he is an above average player all round even though is glove is below average. He is more valuable over a full season than every Nat except Zimmerman and Morgan, and he is seriously underpaid which frees up money for other things. Willingham is exactly the kind of player great teams relish. I think of him as the left field equivalent of a Mike Lowell (well up until 2009). Or Kevin Mitchell from the bloody sock Boston WS team. I could come up with many more names.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Sorry I meant Kevin Miller not Mitchell
He was a slugger 20 years ago who was pretty good.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
the majority of dissenting arguments
had nothing to do with counting stats and instead focused on the fact that Cameron mentioned willingham’s injury season, while leaving out Bay’s and counted a year in which bay was hurt nearly the whole season
Right 2007 is included in my PAs above. Bay still played alot so he could not have been hurt that much
Willingham has played long stretches hurt most of his career (mostly back), except last season, so last season projected out to 600 ABs is probably fair for him I think. And that was pretty good with a Slugging percentage over .500 and an onbase percentage of .360 or so.
The point is that Willingham has likely had as many (if not more) at bats while banged up than Bay over the time period of 2006-2009. He certainly spent far more time on the DL. So to argue that Cameron was using Bays injury numbers to make Willingham look better just is not fair or accurate. The Hammers only mostly injury free season was 2009 and those numbers were pretty darn good.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Cameron failed to mention Bay was injured in that 07 season
and without that season, the comparison isn’t even close.
Cameron cant say that Bay’s 07 season was an abboration because if he does, his comparison ( and article) loses all merit. He either wasn’t aware (which is bad journalism) Or he was being deceptive ( even worse)
Notice how he never defended that point once in the comment section? Usually, he is all too happy to defend his positions.
how do you know willingham has had just as many injury plauged AB’s as Bay, what are you basing that on?
On the subject of willingham being traded
this team needs pitching, plain and simple. Altho he is a nice offensive player, the offense can survive without him, the pitching staff is beyond terrible…
I disagree with your assesment of the young starting pitching.
Our defense and bullpen was really bad last season and that made a bunch of solid young starting pitchers look really bad. Sure none are allstars (yet), but if you look at the Fielding Independent Pitching stats we have about bunch of guys who are good enough to be 4th-5th starters right now for almost any team. They should get even better given time and innings to improve.
In case your unaware, FIP is theoretically what a pitchers ERA should have been had he played with an exactly average defense behind him in a neutral park. Thus the average FIP of baseball should equal the average ERA. baseballs average 2009 fip was 4.31
FIPS 2009
Detwiler 3.86
Zimmermann 3.59
Mock 4.28
Stammen 4.68
Martis 5.48
Martin 5.68
Compare these 2009 FIPs to Marquis’ (2009 FIP 4.10 his best ever, 2008 was 4.61, 2007 was 4.99, and 2006 was 5.90) and your probably looking at limited improvement with a typical free agent we could have signed this offseason. I’d wager maybe 1/3 a run or so on average. Remember the average ERA in baseball was 4.31 in 2009 so a guy with less than a full season of major league experience with a FIP of 4.68 such as Stammen has potential to be an average to above average pitcher with a few years of experience.
actually go look at Marquis FIPs for his career. He is somewhat similar to our typical pitcher because he is a finess guy, but he has 10 years experience now. in those 10 years he has never had a FIP below 4. In fact his first seasons FIP was 5.58 which most of our rookies beat last season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=105&position=P
every guy I listed above probably has upside as high as Jason Marquis or better. Most are probably better long term if they keep healthy. So, these are solid guys and some should be great given health, age and typical growth.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
well, I hate Jason Marquis
so you’re preaching to the choir there… in fact, I hate 98 pct of the free agent signings this offseason.
I am aware of FIP and consider it an important tool in evaluating pitchers.
I dont think anyone is denying Zimmerman’s potential, I m not reffering to him when I say the pitching staff is in trouble.
But once again, I don’t think only looking at one stat can give us a clear picture of what we are looking at. For one thong, all of these sample sizes are pretty small, but we’ll put that aside for a second.
While Dewtiller’s FIP was good last year, he had a BB/9 rate of 3.9 last year.. a k/bb ratio of 1.33 and an ERA+ of 85. The only way I can even account for his FIP being so low is he didnt give up any homeruns, which is good, but he was defficent in many other areas last year. (0.4/9 according to baseball refrence.) This dosen’t seem sustainable, and CHONE seems to agree, as they project a 4.44 FIP next year. Marcel dosen’t think the increase in hr rate will be as steep, and put him at a 4.04 for next season. However, they both agree that the hr rate will increase, thus leading to a worse FIP.
Mock is ok, but he walked far too many last year, however, I do hold out some hope for him, because he is a strikeout pitcher…
and the other guys have BAd FIPs to begin with, not sure why you listed them.
So as far as i’m concerned we have one potential star (zimmerman) One question mark (mock) One guy whose FIP is a bit misleading, due to an unsustainable hr rate, (detwiller) and the rest are just flat no good.
This is why I never just look at one stat, no matter what it is… I dont think any one stat gives us a clear picture of whats going on, and I like to have as much info as I can before making a judgement.
i sort of stuck the 09 hr rate in a weird spot
it as 0.4/9 according to baseball reference.
stammen was... eh, okay last year
while he didnt walk anybody, he didnt strike anybodu out either, and he gave up too many hrs… who knows what happens with time, but my point is that this is not a pitching staff that is well, good, by any stretch of the imagination… it would do well to be improved
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