The Adam Dunn Factor

One of the main reasons that people in Cincinnati didn’t much care for Adam Dunn is they saw him as a fantasy player. That he was a guy that would always put up the numbers, but wouldn’t help a team win. Adam Dunn’s 3.9 WAR at first base shows that when defense is made less of a factor Adam Dunn contributes more positively to winning, but offensively is he a guy that only puts up numbers in meaningless games. What I want to do is go game by game and see just how much Adam Dunn contributed to Nationals wins. The main question I want to answer is does Adam Dunn really just put up stats when it doesn’t matter? I am going to do this simply and unscientifically. If the number of runs Dunn contributed is equal to or greater than the margin of victory then Dunn gets a point. Otherwise we will say he was a non-factor. Factor points will be in brackets at the end of his stat line.   

Nationals defeat Phillies 6-5 Adam Dunn 1-3, single, walk, run, RBI (1)

Seeing as this was a one run game and Adam Dunn contributed two of the runs it looks like he played a factor in this game.

Nationals defeat Mets 4-3 Adam Dunn 0-3, walk, run (2)

Another one run victory with Adam Dunn walking and scoring a run. Anybody that scores a run or drives in a run in a one run game is helping his team to win.

Nationals defeat Mets 5-2 Adam Dunn 0-2, 2 walks, run (2)

This was the game where Josh Willingham hit a grandslam in the first inning, and then added another RBI on a double in the third. Dunn’s walk in the first came with only 1 out so Willingham would have batted regardless.  Dunn’s second walk again came with 1 out ahead of a Josh Willingham RBI. Dunn didn’t really have a direct impact on the outcome of this game.

Nationals defeat Phillies 7-5 Adam Dunn 2-5, single, solo HR, run, RBI (2)

One of the knocks on Dunn is he hits too many solo homers, that he just isn’t the same threat with men on base. Dunn with men on base SLGs .504 vs. .535 with the bases empty. Not a significant difference. A two run victory is still a close game and a 2-5 day is contributing to a winning effort, but not enough to earn a factor point.

Nationals defeat Brewers 5-3 Adam Dunn 0-1 (2)

Dunn was ejected after his first AB. Non-factor.

Nationals defeat Brewers 8-0 Adam Dunn 0-4 (2)

Again not a factor to the win, but didn’t really put any stats up.

Nationals defeat Rockies 5-2 Adam Dunn 1-2, double, 2 walks, 2 runs (2)

Dunn scored on a Willie Harris homer and on a Willie Harris sac fly after a lead-off double and Pudge single. A 3 run game with Dunn scoring 2 of them. I think this counts as a positive contribution, but the Nationals still might have won the game without Adam Dunn.

Nationals defeat Rockies 6-4 Adam Dunn 2-4, single, double, 1 run, 2 RBI (3)

Again I think it is safe to say that Dunn helped contribute as his number of runs scored is greater than the margin of victory.

Nationals defeat Dodgers 5-1 Adam Dunn 2-3, 2 solo homers, walk, 2 runs, 3 RBI (4)

Again with the solo homers, but this type of day simply cannot be ignored. Dunn was a force against the Dodgers this season as we will see later.

Nationals defeat Dodgers 1-0 Adam Dunn 0-2, walk, RBI (5)

Scott Olsen escaped a bases loaded jam and then pitched a marvelous game as Adam Dunn drove in the only run of the game on a groundout in the first inning.

Nationals defeat Cubs 3-1 Adam Dunn 0-4 (5)

Not a factor in this game.

Nationals defeat Cubs 3-2 Adam Dunn 1-4, solo homer, run, and RBI (6)

Another solo homer, but they do seem to matter don’t they?

Nationals defeat Marlins 7-1 Adam Dunn 1-5, triple, and run (6)

I know it is strange to see the word triple so close to Adam Dunn’s name. Even without that triple and the run that resulted from it the Nationals would have won without him.

Nationals defeat Braves 6-3 Adam Dunn 1-3, solo homer, walk, run, RBI (6)

This time the solo homer didn’t help that much, but I think Dunn should be credited with an extra run as the pinch runner after his walk scored. It still isn’t enough to earn a factor point, but Dunn played a part in the Nationals winning this game.

Nationals defeat Braves 3-2 Adam Dunn 2-3, single, solo homer, run, RBI (7)

The solo homer was the margin of victory in this game.

Nationals defeat Marlins 5-4 Adam Dunn 0-3, HBP, RBI (8)

Lefty specialist Pinto hit Adam Dunn in the bottom of the 8th to force in the go ahead run. Not the most pleasant of ways to earn an RBI, and probably has more to do with Pinto’s wildness than anything Dunn brings to the table, but the rules are the rules (there are times I want to give Dunn a point and can’t). We will just call this a bank shot.

Nationals defeat Marlins 3-2 Adam Dunn 3-4, 2 singles, double, RBI (9)

Dunn drives in a run and helps the Nats to another 1 run victory early in the season.

Nationals defeat Mets 3-2 Adam Dunn 1-3, double, walk (10)

Adam Dunn gets on base and hits for power, but again doesn’t have anyone on base for him and doesn’t get driven in. Of course the pinch runner for Adam Dunn does get driven in. Meaning he should get a point for this one as that run was the go-ahead and deciding run of the game, and if Dunn doesn’t hit that 8th inning double then who knows what happens.

Nationals defeat Mets 6-4 Adam Dunn 2-5, single, double, and a run (10)

Scored on a hit by Craig Stammen, but the margin of victory is higher than that one run as Dunn would be forced out on a Guzman’s fielder’s choice after his single in an inning where the bases ended up loaded, but Roger Bernadina stranded all three runners.

Nationals defeat Rockies 14-6 Adam Dunn 1-4, double (10)

Even if Dunn had had a better day at the plate I don’t see any way that any single player could contribute to this victory. This was truly a team effort, and a game that should have been called. The field was dangerous to play on by the end of the game.

Nationals defeat Mets 5-3 Adam Dunn 1-2, single, 2 walks (10)

Even if there was a pinch runner and they did score in this game the margin of victory is too high to be affected. Adam Dunn puts up good stats in a winning effort, but doesn’t contribute to the victory.

Nationals defeat Orioles 7-6 Adam Dunn 1-5, single, 2 RBI (11)

This was just one of those games. Craig Stammen allowed the Orioles to jump out to an early lead and then the Orioles bullpen gave it all back. It was a bit of a back and forth game, but the highlight of the entire game has to be Nyjer’s tantrum on Adam Jones inside the park homerun.

Nationals defeat Orioles 4-3 Adam Dunn 0-3, HBP (11)

It would have felt kind of wrong to give Dunn a point for this game as all the glory should go to Josh Willingham and his walk-off homerun. Capps also blew a save in this game and went on a bit of a cold streak after being so hot to start the season.

Nationals defeat Giants 7-3 Adam Dunn 2-4, single, triple, sac fly, RBI (11)

Defeating Lincecum is always a good thing, but the Nationals likely win this game without Adam Dunn. I know I said this was unscientific, but I just have this feeling that someone is going to comment that I am not taking the amount of pitches Dunn sees into consideration. Trust me it is in the back of my mind, and if I could break this down even further I would, but this is purely unscientific and a quick (not really) way to see if Dunn is simply a fantasy player or if he is a guy that can contribute to close victories, or if he is just putting up big numbers is losses or blowouts. So far that hasn’t been the case, although we aren’t looking at losses here.

Nationals defeat Padres 5-3 Adam Dunn 1-4, double (11)

Adam Dunn wasn’t much of a factor in this game at all. His double came in the 9th inning with the Nationals leading 4-3 and lead to an insurance run when Ian Desmond drove in pinch runner Adam Kennedy. Insurance runs are useful, but not a direct contribution to a win.

Nationals defeat Astros 14-4 Adam Dunn 2-5, single, double, 1 run, 4 RBI (11)

Contributing to five runs is a pretty good day, but again this is a full team effort and the type of slaughter where the fantasy player people would say is perfect for Dunn to pad his stats.

Nationals defeat Reds 4-2 Adam Dunn 2-5, single, double (11)

Dunn’s double came in the bottom of the first with one out and Zimmerman on first after a Nyjer Morgan single and Zim fielder’s choice. The single came a couple innings later following a Zimmerman single and was followed by a Willingham strikeout for the first out of the inning and a Bernadina single to drive in Zimmerman. Dunn ended the inning stranded when the next two batters made outs.

Nationals defeat Pirates 5-2 Adam Dunn 3-4, 2 singles, homer, run, 2 RBI (12)

This is exactly the type of game Dunn is supposed to be bad in. Young phenom pitcher making his debut in front of a sold out crowd on national T.V. I really think Dunn deserves a point for this, but I made the rules and as much as I keep wanting to give Dunn extra credit I think 11 direct contributions so far is pretty good.

Nationals defeat Pirates 7-5 Adam Dunn 1-4, homer, run, 2 RBI (13)

This was a rather painful game to be at. After all the hustle and bustle of the weekend Reds series and the Strasburg debut this game just felt like a hangover, but not for Adam Dunn as he was able to drive in the margin of victory.

Nationals defeat Pirates 4-2 Adam Dunn 2-4, single, solo-homer, run, RBI (14)

Three wins, three homers.

Nationals defeat Indians 9-4 Adam Dunn 2-4, double, solo-homer, walk, 3 runs, RBI (14)

This game shouldn’t have even been as close as 5 runs as Miguel Batista tried to prove he could give up runs quicker than he could get outs. It is another one of those total team efforts, but important to note another nationally televised game and Dunn’s homer came with the game tied 1-1.

Nationals defeat Royals 2-1 Adam Dunn 0-4 (14)

Most of the time when the Nats are winning Dunn is doing something, but he wasn’t remotely a factor in this game.

Nationals defeat Royals 4-3 Adam Dunn 1-4, solo-homer, run RBI (15)

A solo-homer in a 1 run game is the margin of victory. Either the opposing pitchers do a real good job of keeping men off base in front of Dunn or aside from Zimmerman there is never anyone on base for Dunn to worry about driving in.

Nationals defeat Braves 7-2 Adam Dunn 0-5 (15)

Not a factor

Nationals defeat Mets 2-1 Adam Dunn 1-3, double, walk (15)

The game ended in the bottom of the 9th on a Ryan Zimmerman sac fly scoring Willie Harris. Hard to say that a guy that reaches base 50% of the time in a one run game isn’t contributing, but the times he was on base he or his pinch runner didn’t get driven in, and no runs were scored in the innings in which he did reach base. Of course the argument can be made if he had reached base one less time then Zimmerman would have been batting with two outs instead of one taking the sac fly out of the equation.

Nationals defeat Mets 6-5 Adam Dunn 3-5, 2 singles, double, run, 2 RBI (16)

This is a good day at the plate, and one that helped the Nats win. The Dunn double was even more impactful as it came in the bottom of the 9th with bases loaded and the Nats down by two, and was one bounce from being a walk-off grandslam.

Nationals defeat Padres 6-5 Adam Dunn 0-2, 2 walks, run (17)

The ability to reach base and not make outs is very important, and it is one of the things that Adam Dunn does well. Don’t forget that this was another walk-off for Zimmerman, a big homer to straight away centerfield.

Nationals defeat Padres 7-6 Adam Dunn 3-4, 3 homers, 3 runs, 5 RBI (18)

If the Padres want someone to blame for them not making the playoffs Adam Dunn might be just as good as anyone as he almost single handedly won the Nationals this game.

Nationals defeat Giants 8-1 Adam Dunn 3-4, double, 2 homers, 3 runs, 3 RBI (18)

This is another one of those team effort games. Adam Dunn and his selfish homeruns are really costing the team. I bet if I added up all of Dunn’s homers we would see that the Nats win more than they lose when he goes deep. Truly selfish. I guess he is just a stats player.

Nationals defeat Marlins 4-0 Adam Dunn 2-3, 2 singles, walk, run (18)

Again my own pesky rules are getting in the way, but the Nationals didn’t win many games when Dunn has an 0fer.

Nationals defeat Reds 8-5 Adam Dunn 0-4, walk, run (18)

Adam Dunn’s walk did lead to a game tying sac fly by Roger Bernadina, but other than that not a good day for the big guy.

Nationals defeat Red 7-1 Adam Dunn 1-5, homer, run, 2 RBI (18)

Total team effort, but once again Dunn is hitting a homer in a Nationals victory.

Nationals defeat Braves 3-0 Adam Dunn 0-4 (18)

Not a factor in this game. This game should be remembered for Miss Iowa anyway.

Nationals defeat Braves 5-3 Adam Dunn 2-4, double, solo-homer, 2 runs, RBI (19)

Another homer another victory. Nothing much more to say as I don’t really remember this game.

Nationals defeat Phillies 8-1 Adam Dunn 1-3, single, HBP, run (19)

Roy Oswalt’s debut as a Phillie. This was a fun game. Beating the Phillies is just fun. I wish it would happen more often. Even if this was a total team effort Dunn didn’t really play much of a part in it. Though his hit by pitch did help extend the 5th inning after Morgan’s caught stealing so that Willingham could get a 2 run double.

Nationals defeat Phillies 7-5 Adam Dunn 0-2, walk, HBP (19)

It could be argued that the two times he did reach base earlier in the game did set up the Zimmerman walk-off against Brad Lidge.

Nationals defeat Diamondbacks 3-1 Adam Dunn 1-4, solo-homer, run, RBI (19)

Adam Dunn really likes the solo-homer. This was also the game where Pudge hit homer 300 as a catcher.

Nationals defeat Diamondbacks 7-2 Adam Dunn 3-5, single, 2 homers, 2 runs, 4 RBI (20)

I keep talking about the rules, and I have decided that now is the time to break them. Yet another multi-homer game for Adam Dunn against the NL West. I also think all these almost points should add up to an entire point eventually, and now is that time.

Nationals defeat Dodgers 6-3 Adam Dunn 2-3, 2 homers, 2 walks, 2 runs, 6 RBI (21)

Notice that Dunn’s RBI and the Nationals run total are the same. This is the opposite of a total team effort. Adam Dunn had two 3 run homers against lefty starter Clayton Kershaw. Dunn also doesn’t hit lefties well.

Nationals defeat Diamondbacks 4-2 Adam Dunn 0-3, HBP (21)

Nothing that Carlos Pena couldn’t do. Except maybe selling the HBP well enough for the ump to call it.

Nationals defeat Diamondbacks 5-3 Adam Dunn 1-4, double (21)

This game is most notable for being Josh Willingham’s last game of the season. Adam Dunn’s double came with two outs in the first inning. Imagine if the Nationals had a lead-off hitter that could get on base.

Nationals defeat Braves 6-2 Adam Dunn 0-1 (21)

Dunn accomplished nothing as a pinch hitter.

Nationals defeat Phillies 8-1 Adam Dunn 0-2, 3 walks, run (21)

Getting on base is always good, but this was the lowest point of the season for the Nationals as this was Strasburg’s last game. The moment that he clutched his elbow after throwing a change-up to Domonic Brown is engraved in every Nats fans’ mind.

Nationals defeat Cardinals 11-10 Adam Dunn 1-3, double, sac fly, run, RBI (22)

Even if the Nationals did score 11 runs they still only won by one. This was the Drew Storen blown save and the game that felt like it would never end. Ian Desmond singled in the bottom of the 13th to score Nyjer Morgan.

Nationals defeat Cardinals 14-5 Adam Dunn 2-3, double, homer, walk, 2 run, 5 RBI (22)

Again hard to be much more than a small factor in blowouts, but any game where a batter reaches base 75% of the time and shows this type of power is good. It isn’t really Dunn’s fault that his teammates had a good day as well.

Nationals defeat Cardinals 4-2 Adam Dunn 2-3, 2 singles, walk, 2 runs (23)

This was not a good trip to D.C. for the Cards. They drop three of four for the Nationals falling further behind in the NL Central race that is becoming not a race, and LaRussa and Pujols get criticized for showing up at a Glen Beck rally. It was however a pretty nice series for Adam Dunn.

Nationals defeat Marlins 9-3 Adam Dunn 2-4, double, homer, walk, run, 4 RBI (23)

Zimmerman takes out a light just like in the movie the Natural. Dunn had himself a pretty good night as well, but not enough to earn a factor point.

Nationals defeat Pirates 8-1 Adam Dunn 2-5, single, homer, run, 2 RBI (23)

It is tough to be a factor in a game where a lot of people play well.

Nationals defeat Mets 13-3 Adam Dunn 1-3, single, 2 walks, 2 runs (23)

This was Danny Espinosa’s big day as he had 2 homers and 6 RBI. Dunn contributed but this was just too much of a slaughter.

Nationals defeat Braves 6-0 Adam Dunn 2-3, single, homer, walk, run, 2 RBI (23)

The Nationals are again too much for the Braves and while Dunn aided in the victory he wasn’t enough of a factor to earn a point.

Nationals defeat Astros 8-4 Adam Dunn 1-3, double, 2 walks, run, RBI (23)

I don’t think I need to emphasize the importance of reaching base, but once again Dunn isn’t the biggest factor in the Nationals victory. On this day that honor is pretty evenly spread around as Pudge leads the team with 2 RBI on the day.

Nationals defeat Astros 4-3 Adam Dunn 1-2, single, HBP (23)

Again Dunn reaches base but fails to be driven in, or to drive anyone in. Maybe with different teammates Dunn would be more of a winner and less of a fantasy player.

Nationals defeat Braves 8-3 Adam Dunn 3-5, single, 2 homers, 2 runs, 5 RBI (24)

A blowout that wasn’t really a total team effort, but mostly an Adam Dunn effort, and yet another multi-homer game. Maybe I am playing fantasy here, but it might seem that on a team with some decent players Dunn could drive in more runs, and get driven in more often.

Nationals defeat Braves 4-2 Adam Dunn 0-3, walk (24)

Non-factor.

Nationals defeat Phillies 2-1 Adam Dunn 1-4, homer, run, 2 RBI (25)

The RBI total matches the Nationals run total. Without Adam Dunn this game is likely a loss.

Nationals defeat Mets 2-1 Adam Dunn 1-4, single (25)

And the season ends with Adam Dunn being taken out of a tie game that goes 14 innings and Justin Maxwell drives in the winning run on a walk.

Adam Dunn ends up with 25 factor points in this timely and ultimately useless unscientific breakdown of every game that the Nationals won that Adam Dunn played in. What I discovered from this is that The Nationals won a lot more games near the beginning and at the end of the season than they did in the middle. I spent the least amount of time going over the games in June and July, but a good amount of time on the games in April, May, August, and September. The other thing is that Adam Dunn was a factor in nearly every game the Nationals won. Many times he wasn’t enough of a factor to earn a made up point, but he was a factor. Now in no way am I saying that I think Dunn is worth 25 wins.

His WAR for this past season was 3.9 and a replacement player has to be worth something. Plus I only focused on offense and while Dunn at first is less of a detriment on defense it still is a negative factor. At the end of the day I still think resigning Dunn is the smartest thing the Nationals can do, but I also don’t think they should give into Dunn and his agent as it looks like they have once again misjudged the market. If Dunn truly doesn’t want to DH he most likely has to take a three year contract. No matter what happens I am going to have some good memories of Adam Dunn. Many of them represented above.