Nationals Daily Evolutions 11/5/10
by David Huzzard on Nov 5, 2010 11:01 AM EDT
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PrintI know many people call it a sad day when a legend passes away, but in many ways it should be a time to look back and reflect on their accomplishments and legacy. The joy they brought people with their life's work. Sparky Anderson was known as a humble man, and while I only know of him as a person from pages of books and recordings of past baseball seasons I still feel as if by learning about Sparky Anderson I learned something from him. Posnanski writes about all the human qualities that made Sparky a great baseball manager and George Anderson a great human being. --Joe Posnanski from si.com
Good news for the Nats might be that the Cubs don't intend to spend a lot of money, and would rather try and have Nick Johnson at first instead of Adam Dunn. Bad news however is I heard the Red Sox are in the market for a first baseman and intend to move Youkilis to third. --suntimes.com and necn.com
A breakdown of the top 50 free agents and where they might end up. Pena and Webb only ones expected to end up with the Nats. --Ben Reiter at si.com
The Nats want you to believe they are serious about going after Cliff Lee and news has been leaking out that they are lurkers in the bidding, but are they really lurking if their intentions to bid have already been announced. --Jerry Crasnick at espn.com
Of course the Nationals tried this once before and didn't quite realize to get a free agent of this magnitude they would have to seriously overpay. If they are going to be big spenders they should spend with conviction. --Pete Kerzel from masnsports.com
The Yankees don't plan to pursue Crawford or Werth. If the Nationals want to spend Werth is the most likely person there to take the money. --Ben Nicholson-Smith at mlbtraderumors.com
The Yankees have already failed once to acquire Lee and many don't expect them to fail again as obtaining Lee appears to be their only off-season goal. --Dave Cameron from fangraps.com
So, if free agency isn't the way to get better and the Nationals don't have the prospects to make a trade then how do they get better? Have patiences and wait for Bryce Harper. --Cliff Corcoran at si.com
Everyone expected Darvish to be posted this off-season, but that isn't happenning, but he is likely to be posted next off-season, but by then his arm will have another season of wear and tear. --Craig Calcaterra at nbcsports.com
News from the AFL, other winter leagues, and more after the jump.
Derek Norris now has 15 RBI in 12 games and with Flores healthy and Norris playing well it is starting to look like the Nationals have catching depth. --Sue Dinem from nationalsprospects.com
More on Derek Norris from the baseball prospectus podcast. --baseballprospectus.com
After a slow start Danny Espinosa is starting to get hot. --nationalsreview.com
Espinosa is only one of the prospects that might benefit from the departure of Adam Kennedy. --Mike Henderson from nationalsdailynews.com
Of course if the Nationals really want to be insane they could go after a free agent second baseman* and bring in the king of scrap. --David Lint from ftlotn.com
*Should be noted if you add up Kennedy, Guzman, and Espinosa's WAR you get 1.3 and David Eckstein finished the year with a 2.0 WAR which is also higher than Desmond's which would drop if he was moved to second like many think he should be. Getting David Eckstein, moving Espinosa to short, and trading Desmond for a starting pitcher might actually be a good move for the Nationals.
Another player in the AFL that has looked good is Cole Kimball as he is ready to add even more depth to what some would argue is an already deep bullpen. --Byron Kerr at masnsports.com
The Nationals were one of the poorest defensive teams in baseball, but the only player that is routinely criticized is Dunn. Ever wonder why that is? --Harper at natsbaseball.com
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Baseball Reference says...
the Nationals’ defense saved 10 runs above the average National League team. Chicago, LA, Houston, Florida, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh all saved less than the average number of runs — the Pirates total being -81!
Bottom line: errors are possibly not the best measure of team defense.
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
Plus, subtract Desi's errors from the mix, or even cut them in half and the Nats are nowhere near league-leaders again...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Nov 5, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I would get annoyed
if they replaced Adam Dunn with Lance Berkman. Don’t get me wrong, I like Berkman. But his best years are well behind him, and there’s no way he’ll be able to approach Dunn’s production in 2011.
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
I want Huff
but only for the red rally thong jokes.
by David Huzzard on Nov 5, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Other players criticized for defense: Desmond, Morgan, Morse
I thought Willingham’s defense improved last year. Desmond was able to reduce the errors as the season went on, but clearly needs seasoning. Morgan also improved somewhat later, but never was as good as he played in 2009.
Morse catches pretty much everything he gets to, but to my Mark 1 Eyeball analysis didn’t get good jumps and didn’t cover a lot of ground.
People saying that Dunn was the only one criticized for defense aren’t talking about FB posters :-)
Just out of curiosity ...
Would a package of Desmond and Norris fetch Grehnke? If not, how much more would be needed?
I like Desmond and would like to see him develop here as part of the Desmond/Espinosa keystone combination. But using him to get Grehnke, sliding Espinosa to SS and signing Eckstein and letting him duke it out with Gonzalez over who gets to be the placeholder (for Lombardozzi?) makes some sense. There is risk – you’re essentially betting that either Ramos or Flores (yikes) is going to be a #1 catcher. But you have to give value to get value.
Dunn to the Red Sox feels like a reach to me. Epstein has spent a couple of cycles trying to make the Red Sox better defensively, and just picked up the option year on David Ortiz. Having Dunn and Ortiz on your roster is pretty limiting as well as making the lineup’s power very lefty heavy. If the Yankees are likely to have a rotation with three lefties in it (Sabathia, Lee and Pettitte) , I’m not sure that’s a direction they want to go.
You want to trade Desmond *and* Norris?
Wow. That’s two big holes opened up to fill one need.
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
This guy Greinke is pretty good, you know
I know it’s risky, and I’m not keen on trading either. But (unlike 1b or outfield) the Nats do have some organizational depth at catcher and middle infield – especially if the Eckstein (who I view as a stopgap at this stage of his career) rumors have any substance. If you’re going to go after a #1 pitcher (and although his W/L and ERA have suffered this season, his peripherals remain very good), you can’t get Lee, and Darvish isn’t even posting until next year, your options are few. Greinke just turned 27, so he’s young enough to satisfy the long-term plans of the team as well as the short term. And he’s under contract for two more years, so you’re going to have to go to the Royals with value to pry him lose even if he wants out.
Why is that a sucker move?
Do you think Greinke is a fraud?
I like Desmond, but right now he’s a low OBP player still learning to both hit and field at the ML level – he makes amazing highlight reel plays and also a lot of errors. Norris is a good B level prospect, but a lot of B level prospects don’t actually make it. AND he’s blocked right now by Ramos.
It’s the old conundrum – in a trade, you have to give value to get value. Reports are that Greinke wants out of Kansas City, but what’s in it for the Royals to move Greinke?
Cutting $13.5 million each of the next two seasons is what's in it for them.
And after that he’ll be a free agent and want even more.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
If he pitches great, he'll be worth even more
It’s not the $13 million a season that concerns the Royals it’s that: (1) he’s only signed for 2011 and 2012, and the Royals don’t expect to be competitive until after that; and (2) Greinke wants out, making it unlikely that they can hold him when they do expect to be competitive. Those are the only reasons the deal is even possible . Teams just don’t trade #1 starters that often. For players entering the final year of their contracts, the Phillies got three prospects for Cliff Lee; the Mets gave up four prospects for Johan Santana. Greinke is younger than either was at the time of the trade, is under contract for two seasons and has a Cy Young in his resume. The Nats would be doing well to be giving up one player and one AA minor leaguer. I haven’t scouted the Royals, but Bleacher Report says they don’t have any strong prospects that are second basemen or outfielders. This makes Desmond or Espinosa the key to any package that the Nats would offer.
And Santana has better pure stuff; Greinke may have better stuff than Lee
What makes Lee so great is his command – he almost never walks anyone, and pitches to spots as well as anyone in baseball.
Yep.
Any deal for Greinke’s probably going to cost one of the middle infielders. Given that they just declined Kennedy’s option, seems to me they’re committed to going with Desi/Espinosa next year barring an utterly worldbeating offer.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
I would hardly consider the Nationals "deep" in the MI
Far from it, actually. Lombardozzi’s a while away, and his only upside is his patience (it appears). Other than that, the kitchen’s bare.
And why exactly is it that the Nationals cannot get Lee?
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
Even if the Nationals go "all in" for Cliff Lee
There’s no guarantee they get him (see, e.g., Mark Texeira). He may well be the Yankees’ ONLY target this offseason, and you may have heard the Yankees have deep pockets. If Texas goes all in as well they have the built-in home field advantage of no state income tax. True #1 starters are the hardest commodity in baseball to get, and if the Nationals come up empty on Lee where do they get their #1 starter? Brandon Webb? He might be worth a flier a la Chien-Ming Wang, but he’s not a #1 starter until he proves he can actually pitch again.
I didn’t say that the Nationals are “deep” in the middle infield; I do think they have some organizational depth with Desmond, Espinoza, Gonzalez at the ML level and Lombardozzi as at least a marginal prospect in the minors. And more importantly, it’s much easier to get a solid stopgap ML level middle infielder than it is to get the #1 starter the Nats crave. I do think the Nats are potentially deep at catcher, which is why Norris could be used as trade bait. They’re not going to get anything for Flores at this stage, and they’re not going to deal Ramos and hope for Flores and/or Norris.
He'll be the Yankees only target outside the current team.
But they need to resign a ton of players.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
True, they need to re-sign Pettitte, Jeter and Rivera
Neither Jeter nor Rivera are going anywhere, and Pettitte’s decision is whether to retire or not. I suspect that their negotiations will be put on hold until after Cliff Lee’s destination is determined.
If any of you haven't yet, read "The Machine"
for a lot more from Posnanski about Sparky Anderson, its one of the best baseball books I’ve read.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Eckstein is 35
2 years from now the team would wish they still had Desi.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
If they did that
In 2 years the hope would be Lombardozzi or someone else would be at second with Espinosa at short.
by David Huzzard on Nov 5, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Upside is a leadoff guy
He has some speed, and has been damn consistant im the MilB so far. Im hoping he will be a Spetember callup this season
You think Greinke will be done in 2 years?
He just turned 27!
He'd be a free agent after 2 years.
And they would have to pay him $13.5 each of the next two. That’s a pretty big price on top of giving up Desi. One great year and one very good year, preceded by a good year and some ok years just don’t seem to make it a lock that he is be a true ace.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
If it was a lock that he was going to be a "true ace" (top 5 in MLB? top 10? not sure what the means exactly)
Then the Royals would wait until the trade deadline and try to extort a team needing a big arm for a WS push. We all know there’s no such thing as a “lock” in baseball. But let’s just say that I’m not alone in regarding Greinke’s ceiling as being higher than Desmond’s in terms of value to a team – and I like Desmond. Unless you think that Desmond is going to turn into one of the top 2 or 3 shortstops in MLB and that Norris is definitely going to be a solid ML starting catcher, you should make that deal. If you want to succeed in MLB, it’s all about pitching – especially in the (mostly) post-steroid era.
Frankly, I think that if the Royals do move him (and they have many reasons, including their fans, not to do so – Royals blogs I’ve looked at are irate at the fact that they are even thinking of moving him) I guarantee they’re going to get at least as much as a Desmond/Norris equivalent, and likely more.
If he was a top 2 or 3 SS in MLB
he would be worth more than Greinke by himself. Players that play everyday at difficult positions are more valuable than any pitcher ever could be. I don’t think Desi has that kind of upside, but I also think Grienke has peaked.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Peaked at 26?
He was 26 this season, didn’t turn 27 until October. Given his peripheral stats I’m not sure what your conclusion is based on, but I will admit that if you think he’s regressing then you don’t do the deal.
He's not as good as 2009 was
He’s still really, really good, but 2009 was an aberration, and anyone who trades for him and expects the 2009 season.
He’s been very elite for the last 3 years.
But, for the sake of evaluating trades, he’s “done” after 2 years, since you don’t expect elite players to forego free agency to sign below-market extensions.
The Nats, though, have to make some kind of splash within two years
This town will utterly lose interest in them if they do not start winning within the next two years. They need to start winning some games so that they can increase their season ticket base. If Greinke brings a winner to DC, he’ll help us raise payroll enough to sign him or someone comparable if he leaves. By the time Greinke leaves, some of these guys that Rizzo is drafting like Solis, Ray, and Cole are supposed to be knocking on the MLB door.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
FWIW
I don’t think we’re going to get Greinke because I feel that we’ll be outbid if they decide to move him and the Royals might not move him. There’s nothing putting pressure on them to have to move one of the few attractions on their team during this offseason. They could try to move him at next year’s trade deadline in something comparable to the Oswalt move from the Astros.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
Totally agree
On your SS point, I’d go even further and claim that 5 pre-arb/arb years of a league average SS is arguably worth about as much as 2 years of Greinke + the picks he nets when he walks.
Unless the team’s got a very likely chance of contending in both 2011 and 2012 (which changes the whole picture), then I’d say so.
If this is a Rangers/Cliff Lee type situation where trading for Cliff Lee pretty much guaranteed that they made the playoffs, then by all means, make the trade.
If you can get Greinke, it's a deal that you do.
You’re banking on him pitching better in the NL on a team where he’s happier. I think that he’d be a little bit better than last year and he’d be a true top of the rotation guy. 2012 becomes the all in year, similar to the Mariners all in year this year. What you forget is that if we’re not a winning team in 2012, you can flip Greinke for prospects that could be comparable to one of the middle infield prospects.
Also, between Lombardozzi, Sanchez, and Hague it’s possible we have a possibility of finding an internally serviceable option at 2B by 2013 to replace one of the middle infielders.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
I'm all in for Norris.
He’s either a Catcher or a first basemen for this organization within two years I feel. It’s not painless to give him up, but if you want to get pitching you have to give something to get something.
The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?
why is that?
He’s on Weds. / Saturday schedule…?
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
Oh. OK, cool.
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
I can't be expected to read *all* the linked pieces, can I?
Rob
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby
As long as we do, as some have suggested, a mostly incentive-based contract...
That’s…acceptable.
"Inconceivable!"
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
-The Princess Bride
Yea, elbows are one thing,
but shoulder injuries scare the hell out of me.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
See, e.g., Chien-Ming Wang
Has there been any word on whether the Nats will be able to sing a deal and avoid potentially offering Wang arbitration?
Just Rizzo and Wang's agent saying they thought they'd avoid going to arbitration a while back...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Nov 5, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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