An Open Letter to Adam LaRoche

Wow.

Just wow.

I mean, I guess this article manages to get a point across, but it has to be the most disjointed, incomplete piece of journalism I’ve ever read.

First off, the difficulty of the AL East is mentioned, but what about the NL East? Even with Jayson Werth, the Nationals are the fifth best team on paper in that division. Just like the Orioles are the fifth best team on paper in the AL East. While counting the Orioles out (and they should be counted out) in the AL East, Dave, you failed to mention how the Nats are going to climb over the Philles. And the Braves. And the Me… Oh wait, the Mets are a disaster… But the Marlins are always a challenge, despite their low payroll. Sure the AL East is the toughest division in baseball, by far, but the NL East is no cakewalk.

Second, what was the point of the Zimmermann/Latos comparison? You even wrote that “this is nowhere near enough proof that Zimmermann can have a big year in 2011”, so why in the world should it “be noted by a free agent choosing his future destination”? Jordan Zimmermann is a prospect. Nothing more, nothing less. Free agents want to see something at the MLB level. They don’t care about prospects and what could happen in the future. That’s why no one is lining up to sign with Baltimore, Oakland, Florida and even Washington (Werth was an anomaly).

Third, since when did Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa become “average short stops”? After an uninspiring minor league career, Desmond put up a .700 OPS in his first full season while striking out three times as often as he walked. And, according to UZR, Desmond was the fourth worst defensive shortstop in baseball last year. How is that “average” by any means? And how about Espinosa? .214 with a .723 OPS in his first cup of coffee? Sure, he was a solid player in the minors, but his first taste of the bigs wasn’t anything to talk about.

Sure, Desmond and Espinosa are both young, and Espinosa has decent potential, but neither of them are going to be more than average. And that’s if either of them ever gets to that point.

Moving on, you’re right that Jayson Werth is much more valuable than Nick Markakis, but Werth is already 32 and he’ll be making $18 million per year until his 38 year-old season. That’s the kind of contract that can derail the best of franchises if Werth collapses when he’s 35. You can’t say with a straight face that a) you think that seven years, $127 million was a good deal for Werth or b) you’re not worried about Werth breaking down and sucking up 20% of payroll while sitting on the DL in the later years of the contract. THAT is something any free agent needs to consider. Especially if he’s going to sign with a losing team.

Next…

I think a lot of people would be surprised if Bryce Harper made it to the majors in 2011. There’s a big difference between JuCo/AFL and the Majors. Anyone who’s expecting Harper to roll through his first year or two of professional ball without experiencing any painful setbacks is setting himself up for disappointment. Sure, it could happen, but for every Alex Rodriguez there’s a Matt Bush.

Next…

Sure, comparing WAR and wOBA gives Ryan Zimmerman a massive advantage over Matt Wieters. But let’s not forget that Zimmerman, since he was a high school draftee, has five full big league seasons under his belt. Wieters, since he was a college draftee, has just one full big league season under his belt. 2011 could be Wieters’s breakout season, and, considering his enormous talent, he could easily hit .290/.370/.520, which would match Zimmerman’s offense. And let’s not forget that, despite his offensive struggles, Wieters has already established himself as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.

Next…

Good job completely ignoring the fact that Stephen Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery a few months ago and is nothing close to a lock to even playing in 2011. Heck, has he even thrown off a mound yet?

This entire article was just a bunch of best case scenarios. Sure, Strasburg was great, but will he be healthy in 2011? And if he is, will he be as good? Sure, Harper has talent, but will he survive the jump to the pros or will he flame out like Shawn Abner, another guy who was described as a “can’t miss” prospect after his sophomore year of high school. I don’t know how you do it, but I wouldn’t feel so sure about the future of my team if it hinged on the comeback of an injured pitcher and the success of a teenage #1 draft pick who hasn’t even played a full professional season.

Finally, this “open letter” to LaRoche does nothing more than blow a lot of sunshine up his ass. Sure, the Nats could be a great team if a few things play out right. But so could the Orioles. And, in the end, neither of them are going to compete in 2011 anyway, so why should either of them care about Adam LaRoche? If the future is so bright in Washington, why not wait and sign Prince Fielder to get there faster?

I’ll say this it was a fun fan letter to LaRoche and actually being a fan of both teams I’d like to see LaRoche on the Nats, that being said the O’s are the better long term bet. Sure they are in the toughest division but they have a better collection of young talent:

Zimmerman might be better than Weiters, but that was the kid’s first full year, there are plenty of stars who started out with worse numbers (particularly at a tough position like catcher). And Strasburg and Harper should be stars, but the O’s have far more solid regulars to good everyday players than the Nats do. Not to mention a rotation of Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Tillman with Britton waiting in the wings. Sure Strasburg might be better than all of them, but the Nats can’t come close to a total rotation. The O’s played ridiculous under Showalter last year (I mean they were on pace for something like 95 wins), which included a winning record against the East. Add Reynolds, Hardy and (likely) Britton to the mix and they could go out and win 80+ games this year (esp. if they added a LaRoche).

Overall I really don’t see any reason why there should be a “beltway rivalry” (i love the games played i mean the fan hatred) since the teams really don’t affect one another. And in fact the more successful both teams are, the more money they make from MASN. Personally I’d like to see the O’s target a young 1B via trade, and maybe sign a Derek Lee to trade at the deadline. LaRoche makes sense for the Nats b/c i’m not a Marrero believer and the Nats need to trade for young starting pitching and a CF (speaking of which Felix Pie anyone?)

in light of Lee signing with Philly. Whoopsadoodle.