The Most Dreadful Time of the Year

 This is the worst time of year. It is cold and dreary outside, and at times clouds stay in the sky so long I wonder if the sun still exists. It is a time of waiting and speculating. I had a brief Twitter debate this morning with fellow Nats blogger William Yoder on the nature of speculation. I said I did not like speculation while he said he enjoyed it. For weeks I have wanted to look at the Nats prospects for 2011, but I cannot. I cannot in good faith make any sort of prediction based on what has happened so far in the off-season to determine the record for 2011. If someone forced me to right now I might say 71 wins or I might say 67 depending on my mood at the moment. This is all based on the WAR of the players the Nats have lost and acquired, and how I think the younger players on the team will progress.

The two biggest losses are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. Dunn was worth 3.9 WAR in 2010 and will likely be worth more in 2011 as he no longer has to wear a glove. Willingham was worth 2.7 and again with the DH roll available in Oakland he should be able to play more games and amass a higher WAR. The biggest add by the Nationals was Werth and his 5.0 WAR, but they have also added Stairs and Ankiel who are worth 0.7 WAR a piece. The Nationals have also lost a bunch of zero or negative WAR players in Mench, Nieves, and Harris, but still to try and predict the 2011 record at this point is useless, and that might not change much as Opening Day approaches.

The Nationals are a team so full of small sample sizes and unknowns that any speculation is useless in a way. The biggest question mark is the starting rotation. Each and every starter is a giant question. How will Jordan Zimmermann pitch now that he is healed from Tommy John's? How much will Livan Hernandez fall back to earth? Was John Lannan's second half an illusion? Will Jason Marquis be the pitcher the Nationals signed him to be last season? Can Detwiler finally live up to his prospect billing? And with the rust now shaken off can Maya live up to his billing?

The question marks don't end with the starting pitching. Can Danny Espinosa hit enough to be a decent 2B? Will Desmond cut down on the errors? Can Nyjer Morgan bounce back to his career norms? Will Ramos be able to supplant Pudge by mid-season? Will Rizzo's gamble on Bernadina pay-off? For some of these questions stats can be used. Nyjer had an absurdly low BABIP last season and that should come back up. Even if Bernadina was tired at the end of the season from playing his first full season in the majors he isn't expected to OPS more than .750 which is unacceptable in left field even if his 11.8 career UZR/150 in left is to be believed. As good as Bernadina's defense is in left field that is how bad it was rated in right field. By trading Willingham and moving Bernadina to the other side of the outfield and adding Werth in right that could add 2-3 wins to the Nationals record, but Bernadina's offense in left might take away one of those wins.

One of the big problems right now with looking at what the Nationals lost and what they have added is that first base has yet to be addressed. Reports indicate that either Lee or LaRoche could be added as soon as this week. Both of these players are a defensive upgrade to Adam Dunn, but neither will be the slugger he is. The offense for the Nationals will have to come from other contributors. As offensively poor as the catcher position and second base position were for the Nationals last season it isn't hard to imagine that between the new first baseman, Espinosa, and Ramos that Dunn's offense could be compensated for. It also could not be if Espinosa and Ramos falter at all or are proven to not be ready for the majors.

Speculation is fine and dandy if both sides of the issue are addressed, but too often people speculate to further an agenda instead of trying to come to an honest conclusion. Such is the nature of speculation. As human beings it is often difficult to remove preconceived notions or bias from our minds. People will look at moves teams make and try and fit them to their idea of what the team is instead of what the moves mean. Again my problem with speculation might not be with speculation at all, but instead with a fringe group of speculators that may or may not exist. It might be my own paranoid delusions that fuel my dislike for speculation based on the fact there is some nonexistent group out there ready to unleash a preview based on a foundation of lies.

Whether this group of speculators exists or not the Nationals are just too much of a mystery to predict. There are question marks throughout the entire rotation and scattered through the line-up, and in some ways questions are better than known quantities that just aren't very good. Questions can be answered in the positive or the negative, and if in the negative it is easier to remove the likes of Danny Espinosa or Roger Bernadina than Jason Bay or Alfonso Soriano. Of course the Nationals could find themselves in the same position as the Cubs and Mets with Jayson Werth's contract, but again it is unknown at this time how he will play as a National. In a way it is still unknown if Bay will live up to his contract. He wasn't signed to a one year deal and good players have bad seasons. Simply look at how David Wright was written off after the 2009 season only to bounce back to form in 2010.

It is good to analyze the past and look at what the future might hold, but to hold speculation as having any sort of meaning is futile. The future will always surprise. There is little chance that the 2011 baseball season won't have at least one surprise team and one team that is expected to be good that fails. Remember when the 2008 Tigers were going to score 1000 runs and the 2010 Mariners were the darling of sports writers. Predictions have a way of falling apart rather easily, and what is expected to happen often doesn't.

The 2011 Nats are so littered with questions that they could find themselves picking early once again in the 2012 draft, they could be one of those surprise teams, or they could quietly continue the march to respectability with modest improvements. What happens in the 2011 season all depends on how many questions are answered in the positive versus the negative, and that won't be known until the 2011 season is at least underway. So, until that time some may find it fun to speculate, but waiting and deciphering is my preferred approach.

However I believe if we can all agree on one thing it is this. It will be a great day when we can look outside and see the sun in the sky and know that night we will be enjoying a cold beer on a warm summer night in Nats Park.