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The Sting of Losing Dunn Doesn't Have to Swell

When I first "Adam Dunn agrees to 4-year, $56 million deal with White Sox" flash across my sports ticker, I was a little disappointed. Many other Nationals fans feel much more disappointed, and it'd be silly to argue that season ticket holders and local DC fans should not be angry. After all, no one told the Cleveland Cavaliers fans not to be angry when LeBron James took his ball to South Beach. However, losing Adam Dunn is no where near as catastrophic as losing a LeBron James. Let me explain why (you know, other than the glaring fact that James is one of the best NBA players, while Dunn hardly qualifies as elite).

First, Adam Dunn was signed by the Washington Nationals as a free agent and has played just two seasons with the franchise. Dunn wasn't drafted by the franchise, isn't a local product and hasn't been here since his career began. Sure, this point isn't very strong, but imagine how hard this would be if it were Ryan Zimmerman signing with another team (aside from the fact that Zimm is an elite player)? Basically, the franchise only invested money in Dunn, it never invested players or draft picks in him (although, perhaps one can argue that now that the Nats will receive 2 compensatory picks). In other words, the loss on Dunn is purely business and the team has only lost his services (and perhaps a few fans). While Dunn was certainly a fan favourite, and his long balls will be missed, his roots in the franchise never sprouted.

Why should this matter? I'm not saying it should, but doesn't it make it a bit easier to heal our wounds?

Star-divide

The biggest counter point is definitely "but we would've gotten better return on Dunn at the trade deadline". When a team tells its ticket holders it plans to win sooner rather than later, netting draft picks that will be spent on players for the 2013/14 season isn't exactly now. I can certainly understand the fans that feel disappointed by the team's decision not to move Dunn. We never really read about "concrete" offers from other ball clubs, but one name casually tossed out there - Daniel Hudson - performed quite well after being traded from the White Sox in 2010. By all appearances, the Nationals might have missed out on a solid return. Again, I ask you to consider that the only investment made by the team into Dunn was money. Many can argue as a season ticket holder, that money is their money, and I can't refute that. However, allow me to reflect on some things further.

As some of you know, I became a Washington Nationals fan when the Montreal Expos were abandoned by Major League Baseball. During the near 20 years of being an Expos fan, I saw big name after big name leave for big dollars and brighter pastures. Maybe I'm just numb to this whole business side of baseball that exists, but I don't feel Adam Dunn is what Vlad Guerrero was, what Larry Walker was, or even what Marquis Grissom was. Players that were brought up in the system, matured into solid ball players, then filtered across the league, was a tough pill to swallow. The economy of the Montreal Expos was a much different landscape than that of the Washington Nationals, and Washington can certainly afford more players than Montreal ever could. I'm not trying to compare this from a financial standpoint, because we all know Washington has money to burn. I'm just saying that this franchise (the Washington baseball franchise) has had many faces depart, that left far more damaging holes. I'm talking about countless fan favourites, that came up with the team, then bolted for bucks. Dunn had a quick 2-year visit, nothing more.

The loss of Adam Dunn's offense is going to hurt, and it's not easy to find such power, but the team loses nothing more than a player and acquires two unkown entities. Would it have been wiser to have landed MLB-ready talent for Dunn when it had the chance? Quite possibly, but during the season Nats fans wanted Dunn to stay and the organization made it clear it would attempt to resign the fan favourite. It didn't work out that way, but I have to believe that the Nationals were serious about resigning Dunn in a reasonable fashion. Yes, the team could've powerplayed the White Sox into unloading some talent for Dunn, but if Rizzo couldn't get what he wanted, he had every right to be stubborn.

Congratulations to Dunn for getting $56 million over 4 years, but many fans agreed during the course of the season, that type of deal wasn't worth signing Dunn to (myself included). Let's not get sour over grapes wedidn't want.  If the Nationals intentions were to keep Dunn unless they received ample compensation, they'd attempt to resign him (just not for four years). Maybe we should tip our caps to Chicago's GM for having such a solid poker face, because many have argued that the Nats should've fleeced the Sox with the knowledge they'd sign Dunn to a four-year deal. Did the Nationals ever have such knowledge until hours ago?

The bottom line is that Adam Dunn is no longer a Washington National. As fans that spend hard earned dollars on the franchise, you have every reason to get upset. I'm just trying to bring a little more perspective from my point of view. Losing Dunn for draft picks isn't so terrible, even if the players don't pan out. The only stock the team had in Dunn was a 2-year, $20 million contract. The return on that investment: two first round picks (technically), 76 HRs and 208 RBIs. Personally, I'd say it worked out, and I'd also say there's still plenty of offseason left. I'm not saying Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee is on the horizon, but with the money the Nationals will spend on future players acquired, the team might gain an equitable return despite the loss of Dunn.

In closing, I wish Adam Dunn well with the Chicago White Sox. May he benefit from AL pitching in a hitter friendly stadium, and chase that elusive 500 HR club. Thanks for two years of towering dingers, and giant bubble-gum bubbles, and for protecting our man Zimm in the lineup. The commanding presence in the batter's box was a thing of beauty, you big giant Donkey.

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Yes, the Nationals did get a pretty good return on the 10 mill investment

Even without the compensation picks.

That was never the point though. The Nats did not properly recognize Dunn’s contribution. The squandered the chance to sign him at below market value, when they knew that to attract any other FA here they’d have to pay substantially OVER market value. The worst part is, in my opinion, the Nats flatly lied to the public about their dealings with Dunn. They never had any intention whatsoever to re-sign him.

Rob

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby

by RobBobS on Dec 3, 2010 1:58 AM EST reply actions  

They never had any intention whatsoever to re-sign him

How do we know this? I’m not convinced that anyone was lied to in regards to attempts at resigning Dunn. Didn’t the club say it wouldn’t offer more than 3 years?

What way would have properly recognized Dunn’s contributions? Enshrine him in the ring of honour? Offer him a contract they don’t feel the player is worth?

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 3, 2010 2:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Rob's got it right

the only way Dunn was going to stay a National was to accept the meager 3-year offer they put up during the last week of the season. they had no real intention of bringing him back.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Dec 3, 2010 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

When did they know they weren't bringing him back.

Why do you think think that they settled for the picks? The picks and the deceit are an insult to my intelligence; that’s what bothers me.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Dec 3, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you really believe the Nats will ever be a winner with this ownership?

The problem is the Lerner family. They bought this team , not to be a winner in DC , but to have an attraction for their extensive apartment/condo/store development in SE DC. You’ve seen this before. Buy a team at a price, keep pay roll low, get a city to largely finance a new stadium, wait ten years for fan interest to wane, and then sell to another baseball starved city at an outrageous profit after about 10 years.
This ownership shows me nothing with regards to running a winning team. They tell fans to suck it up and wait till next year. They have no real radio network. They do little in the way of community relations. They spend little on the scouting efforts, front office staff, and obtaining blue chip ballplayers. Tell me something. Does anyone believe that Zimmerman will wait another year when his contract is up to stay in DC? Will any blue chip want to play here as the ownership reputation makes its way through MLB player land. DC fans get ready for a parade of has beens and never will be’s because this ownership is CHEAP! At least with Adam Dunn we could swell with pride as he hit a towering HR 500 feet or more. Now what will we get, NYJER Morgan’s great flotters just over the infielders’ head. Or watch as our starting pitcher never makes it past the 5th inning, or our solid relief core blows another save. Sorry I’ve it with this team ownership!

Wxguy

by wxguy on Dec 5, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Do Not Agree......

They have spent “little” on scouting effors and front office staff? Are you kidding me? They have probably one of the best in MLB. They have done little in the way of community relations? Can’t agree with that either. Obtaining blue chip players? Who have they failed to bring here? DC can’t make these players sign here. The truth is, ownership has payed for EVERY player that Bowden and Rizzo have WANTED to bring here. The radio issue is problematic….but I am sure that problem is assisted by ole’ Peter in B’More. If the owners were so cheap, the Nats would not have signed both Harper and Strasburg, and nearly every other drafted player, and would not have sought out some of baseball’s finest front office personnel. Want to place blame? Start with Bowden.

by sullyzz on Dec 5, 2010 12:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow.

I’m feeling pretty negative these days, but THIS is negative.

I do not believe that baseball will leave DC under any circumstances for at least a quarter of a century. MLB will force the ownership to sell to another DC group, if the Lerners want to get out. But they don’t want to get out either, not while it’s a cash cow.

Rob

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." -- Rogers Hornsby

by RobBobS on Dec 5, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Internal Inconsistency

If the Lerners bought the Nationals as an attraction for an extensive apartment/condo/store development in SE, isn’t it in their interests to make the team an actual attraction? More wins = more fans = more foot traffic around the Stadium = more viable for vendors, restaurants (etc) = more $$ for the Lerners.

Also, if it’s their intent to sell to another baseball starved city, doesn’t that kind of put a spike in the value of all of their development around the Stadium?

by d_c_guy on Dec 5, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Well to remint the words of the ancient prophet: "Woe is me, for I am unDunn"

For me it is about having a big bat in the lineup. Dunn answered that problem.

Furthermore, in light of his departure if the FO purchases another FA – what will the cost difference entail?

Also, if this means that next year the FO makes a huge leap at A-Gon – and it paysoff then for the longterm it is worth it.

I have no problem suffering through a unDunn season if next year A-Gon joins the lineup and Harper comes along as expected by June 2012….

Also, I will miss Dunn but if the FO adds a big bat in the OF then hey so be it.

"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis

by Dave D on Dec 3, 2010 7:16 AM EST reply actions  

Totally understand this.

If they are saving their money for 2012. We should save our money for 2012 as well.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Dec 3, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Update: And, now though A-Gon is not in the mix at least there is another bat in Werth

However, one more strong bat would be nice. If, however the Hammer is back and healthy between Werth, The Hammerman and Zimm I think that will be nice…so, hopefully nobody jumped off the ledge this past week – still alot of time between now and Spring Training

"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis

by Dave D on Dec 9, 2010 6:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with a lot of what is said here and elsewhere, but let me add..

1. As an advocate of trading Dunn last season, which did not happen, and generally being of the opinion that he contributed less to winning than his power stats. suggested, I was pleasantly surprised that the bulk of comments were at least somewhat accepting of his departure.
2. In earlier posts I voiced my favoring more playing time for Morse, and said he should be given a shot at first base if Dunn departed. Since my first advocating for Morse early last season his offense has not disappointed. I also said he got too little respect, and I still think so based on several recent comments about him. The comment about a late blooming 29 year old being unlikely to be the answer in the OF or 1B should be discarded. While this may be true on average, I think the organization should just play him until he is unworthy to be a starter. I stand by my prediction made in the middle of last season that in July, 2011 the Morse stats. will be better than than those of Willingham.
3. As several comments reflect, the Dunn departure saga cannot be fully evaluated until we know how the saved money is spent, and what the Nats get for the extra draft picks. Also, the required lineup moving of offensive personnel , and (hopefully) improved defense at first base, may cover for much of what is lost of the Dunn contribution. Let us always remember the bottom line is: what is the change in contribution to winning resulting from any personnel change, in this case the loss of Dunn.
4. As a follow to #3, if the Dunn replacement cuts down on his strikeout total by at least one-third the improvement in advancing runners will offset most of the loss of run production if the replacement hits at least two-thirds as many home runs. That would be about 26 in this case. Again, I believe Morse can/will do that.
5. I strongly believe, based on following baseball closely for over 50 years, that any short term bad feelings of the fans or players due to the departure of Dunn, will be forgotten if the team improves. Memories of past individual players is short compared to the feelings that occur from present and expected future team performance.

by wreckhouse on Dec 4, 2010 6:26 AM EST reply actions  

I'm in support of much of this.

I’m enough of a believer in Morse to say that I’d be more interested in the greater longer term goal of finding a young players to handle any of our needs that I’d be open to trying him or Willingham at first base and finding a young left fielder or centerfielder who can be a core piece than taking a flyer on LaRoche or Pena or Derrick Lee and seeing whether they can shock the world and replace much of Dunn’s production or whether they can play well enough to become tradable assets at the deadline.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Dec 4, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve been saying this since the team signed Morse: I like him a lot more as a rotational bench player than as a starter. Last year’s performance was impressive, but can he keep it up? I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t mind seeing Morse platoon with Willingham in the OF and be the primary back-up at 1B, I’m just not sold he can contribute consistently as an everyday starter from day one.

Aside from that, I’m on board with your comment.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 4, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Platoon with Willingham?

Confused because both are right handed. I’m not totally comfortable with Morse at first base, but I could live with it given my low expectations for next year.

The wait for 10/7 begins. This man is focused. Are you?

by souldrummer on Dec 4, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Platoon wasn’t the right choice of word on my part. I just meant as the guy that plays when Willingham needs a rest.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 4, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

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