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Washington Nationals: Elijah Dukes Ready For 2010?

Elijah Dukes played just 108 games in 2009, collecting 20 doubles, 4 triples, 8 HR's and 58 RBI's in 364 at bats over which the 25-year-old right fielder, who'll turn 26 in late June, hit for a .250 AVG with a .337 OBP, .393 SLG, 12 assists, 8 errors and one double play turned. In a month at Triple-A Syracuse, Dukes played 20 games, hitting for a .279 AVG and posting a .388 OBP and a .529 SLG with 8 doubles, 3 HR's, 10 RBI's and 5 steals, earning a call back up to the majors where he played right field alongside Nyjer Morgan in center and Josh Wilingham in right, in what DC Skipper Jim Riggleman told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan in an article entitled, "Fresh Starts and New Roles", was, "...an 'above average' outfield." 

Just before Dukes was called back from Syracuse, DC GM Mike Rizzo made an appearance on Sirius/XM's "Inside Pitch" with Jeff Joyce and Joel Sherman where he told the hosts that the Nationals would use the rest of the season, once Dukes returned to the majors to, "...see what type of player we have there on an everyday basis. It's an evaluation process, so we can go into the offseason and the winter and make good prudent baseball decisions." In 50 games in August and September/October, Dukes improved from a first-half line of .244/.308/.415 to .257/.366/.368 with 7 doubles, 3 triples, 2 HR's and 28 RBI's, plus 10 more walks and 20 less K's in 50 games to end the season than he'd had in 57 games before being sent down... 

Star-divide

As far as Jim Riggleman sees it, Dukes is, "...getting to be a finished product at his position." MASNSports.com's Byron Kerr spoke to the Nationals' Manager for an article entitled, "Could Dukes have a breakout season for Nats?", in which Mr. Kerr asked Mr. Riggleman to predict what sort of season Dukes would have at the plate:

"Offensively, we are just scratching the surface with Elijah. He can definitely hit more home runs than he hit last season. That will bring his RBI total up, whether he is knocking them in or crossing the plate himself. Despite not being up with the club the entire season, he did have 58 RBI in 364 at bats, which was pretty productive."

Dukes himself told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in a December interview entitled, "Dukes' expectations raised for 2010", that he knew how important it was for him to finally put it all together this season and become the player he'd been expected to be since the Tampa Bay Devil Rays made the Homestead, Florida native the team's 3rd Round pick, taking the then-18-year-old outfielder with the 74th overall selection in 2002. According to Dukes, as quoted by Mr. Ladson, he knows there are big expectations for him to "break through" this season, and he says, "I expect big things out of myself."

If Dukes comes through this season, (as MLB.com's Bill Ladson reiterated today in reporting in an article entitled, "Nationals, Dukes agree to terms", that the Nationals and their right fielder had agreed on a 1-year deal worth $440,000), it will go a long way in helping Washington decide whether or not he's going to be the DC RF for the next couple of years since Dukes is eligible for arbitration after the 2010 season and could stand to get a significantly more substantial raise than the $28,500 dollar increase he received this season. 

• Elijah Dukes: 2010 Projections - 

Bill James: 107 G, 346 AB's, 91 H, (.263 AVG), 19 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR's, 55 RBI's, .359 OBP, .439 SLG, .798 OPS.

LINKS: 

• Washington Nationals: Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll's Team Health Reports.Ed Chigliak

• Washington Nationals: Elijah Dukes' Long Winter. Ed Chigliak

• Washington Nationals: Is Elijah Dukes Right In Right?Ed Chigliak

Videos: 

DWL Dingers - 


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Elijah Dukes

I don’t have any good objective reason to believe this, but I have a gut feeling that this will be Dukes’ season.

I think he and Riggleman like and respect each other… and maybe for the first time in his career he has realistic expectations of himself, and the team has realistic expectations of him. Can he tap the raw talent? I hope so…

I wrote in my blog last yearr about Dukes and Milledge… and how I thought that Milledge was a good influence on Dukes. A year later, I think Dukes has outgrown Milledge. I think that is both encouraging for Dukes and disappointting for Milledge… but I don’t concern myself with Milledge anymore… I see him six times a year.

by Wigi on Feb 12, 2010 1:46 AM EST reply actions  

I can only imagine how different this discussion would be had Dukes been able to play the full season for Licey...

  The Tigres ended the regular DWL season in second place, and lost in the post-season tournament on the last day to eventual Caribbean champion Escogido.
  Having Dukes in the lineup instead of Wily Mo’s bat and Bonifacio’s “glove” in RF would have made a huge difference and a possible MVP…

" I was just poking the universe to get things started..." -E. Chigliak, Winter 2009
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 12, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Elijah Dukes II

I agree Wigi…Dukes is one of my favorites on the team. If he reaches his full potential, wouldn’t the Nats have one of the most feared offensive lineups in the NL? The Phillies lineup is pretty solid, and so is the Cardinals and Astros. I would have to think the Nats would be in there somewhere.

by sullyzz on Feb 12, 2010 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

More Dukes

He’s the best option they have in right. The Nats really should give him every opportunity to succeed/fail by giving him the job for the whole season. Having Morgan as the CF will make him look better in the outfield too.

by docholliday3 on Feb 12, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Whoa whoa whoa

First off, they have given Elijah the opportunities. The problem is he is injured all of the time so it obviously makes it hard to commit to someone who can’t stay on the field. Sometimes that has to with luck, other times preparation. I have a suspicion it involves both.

Second. You have to be dreaming to consider the Nats offense one of the best in the NL with a productive Elijah Dukes. Just not happening. They are average at best and certainly don’t have any enormous threats. Dunn can hit the long ball and walk, but is susceptible to the K. As is anyone else in their lineup, especially Elijah Dukes who cannot come close to hitting a hammer.

I like being exceptionally positive too, but focus that energy on the CAPS. Stay patient, this team is getting to .500 level but won’t be competing for any NL East titles for a few years.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by Bsullivan on Feb 12, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Another Sullivan? LOL

I slightly disagree that Elijah has been given the opportunities. Elijah has shared a lot of playing time with Kearns and others. He looked great last September….he batted .290 with two doubles, two triples, and was walked 15 times. In August, he batted .261 with a HR, five doubles, a triple, nine walks, and had 22 RBI, after returning from a AAA stint. I think he is getting there. BTW, why would I have to be dreaming the think the Nats offense is not one of the better ones in the NL? Four of the hitters have 25+ HR potential (with 2 that will have over 30+ HR potential); Nyjer is a potential .300 hitter with high base stealing capabilities; Guzman has averaged over .300 the past three seasons; Flores, when he returns, was batting over .300 with three doubles, 2 triples, 4 HR, 11 walkes, and 15 RBI in only 29 games before he was injured. The best? No, but very solid nonetheless. The only thing I think the offense lacks, is another Nyjer Morgan type of player….need another high average, base stealing threat, so the team can play a little more small ball, and not rely so much on the power.

Just so we are on the same “Sullivan” page (LOL), I am not suggesting the Nationals will be competing for NL East titles anytime soon….I am predicting a 75 win season in 2010, with a “possible” run at 3rd place (most likely 4th).

by sullyzz on Feb 12, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

How many wins do you guys think the Nats will get?

I definitely want to be optimistic, but I can’t see the Nats winning more than 70 games this year.

by docholliday3 on Feb 12, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

72 Wins....minimum

Read my Fanpost Blog…..“Looking Through The Lens of Optimism.” The Nats played .440 (under Jim Riggleman) after the AllStar break last season, with the improvement efforts after Bowden departed. Since then, there have been even better improvements. IF the Nats improve none at all (on the field) from the second half of last season, and only play .440 ball as they did during the second half, they should win 72 games. I think they were better than their overall record last year, and I think they will slightly improve over that .440 (second half 2009) in 2010. If they win less than 72 games, they will have regressed from the second half of 2009….not improved. My prediction is 75 wins, with a possible push for .500.

by sullyzz on Feb 13, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

wouldn’t the Nats have one of the most feared offensive lineups in the NL?

No

Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.

by TradeAndruw on Feb 13, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Explain

Even with some of the guys who brought down the Nats offensive stats last year, the Nats were still in the middle of the NL pack offensively. Both Morgan and Guzman have the capability to hit .300, and that is a good 1-2 punch at the top; especially with Morgan’s base stealing capability. They are then followed by Zimmy and Dunn, both capable of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI years. Willingham and Dukes would follow, each capable of 20-25 HR years, given a full season at the plate. Pudge may be on the decline, but still isn’t a easy out, and Kennedy will surely bat over .275. Dukes is the mystery, which is why I asked, “wouldn’t” the Nats have one of the most feared offensive lineups, IF he plays to potential. Where do you rank them? Middle of the NL pack, where they were last season, or higher echelon? Who is better? Phillies? Sure. Cardinals? Yes. Dodgers? Ok. Who else do you consider “that” much more daunting?

by sullyzz on Feb 13, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure I understand

The Nats offense IS middle of the pack, but I don’t understand how Dukes putting up a good year would make them “one of the most feared offensive lineups.” PS, you forgot the Brewers, Marlins, Rockies and Braves.

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&type=6&season=2009&month=0

by docholliday3 on Feb 13, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

More Than Just Dukes

The Nats will have Nyjer the entire season; hopefully a productive Dukes the entire season; Adam Kennedy (better than what we threw out there last year) the entire season; Desmond will hopefully be a regular filling in for Guzman and Kennedy; No more Kearns; No more Hernandez. Hopefully Flores will return by June and pick up where he left off in 2009. Yes….a bunch of if’s, but likely better than 2009.

by sullyzz on Feb 13, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Also I read your fanpost

So you think the Nats are going to go .440 because they are now used to Riggleman’s managerial style? Also, who is our true closer?

by docholliday3 on Feb 13, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

That Is Not What I Said

I was basing the .440 on how well they finished the season, combined with the off-season improvements. Being used to the new managerial style doesn’t hurt either. I suppose you are in the 100 loss season group, that feels the Nats will regress this season? Playing under .440 is regressing, don’t you think? If not, you must feel that the .440 second half last year was a fluke. I actually think the .298 first half was the reason for a 100 loss year, based on that horrid bullpen, which no longer exists. The Nats had 20 blown saves, in the first half alone, due to that bullpen and lack of closer. True closer for this season? I thought that is why Capps was signed. Yes, he had a down season last year, and I am sure that is why you will suggest a third straight 100 loss season, but he was a 3.02 and 2.28 pitcher the previous two seasons. Irregardless, he is an upgrade over Hanrahan.

by sullyzz on Feb 13, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I apologize sullyzz

What I wrote earlier didn’t come out right and I wasn’t trying to be mean. I think what you bring to this blog is important, because what’s the point of following baseball if you’re going to be negative all the time? While I think the offseason moves will keep the team competitive in the short-term while the Nats (hopefully) develop the minor leagues, winning 75 games won’t do it for me. I want them to win 105 games, and hopefully that can occur in 3 or 4 years.

by docholliday3 on Feb 13, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think even 75 wins would be a dramatic improvment...

That’s 16 games better than last season…subtract the 20 blown saves, some of which were really ******** gimmes, and I guess it’s possible but anything above .500 this season would shock most in baseball.

As much as fans of the Nats might like the lineup shaping up this season better than any Washington’s put on the field, most people I talk to are still amused/amazed that I have any sort of optimism at all..

One day they’ll respect the Nats’ a-thor-i-tie!!!

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 13, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

So far the math is 72-76 wins, pending sorting out the bullpen.

But we’ll get into that next week. And that’s also what I projected last year…

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Feb 13, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I guessed 76-78 last year.....

  PECOTA already docked 9 wins or so off their previous 82 win projection…..booooo….

" I was just poking the universe to get things started..." -E. Chigliak, Winter 2009
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 14, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

The Nats' suk-factor broke their abacus...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

The Deuce

I don’t know that we can be that confident on Dukes. His problem has been that he can’t hit the curveball and he’s getting fewer and fewer fastballs thrown to him. So either he learns to hit breaking balls or his career as a productive major leaguer is finished. It’s really that simple, I think, and unfortunately I don’t know that we have much evidence that he can learn that skill. Hopefully he’ll surprise us.

by cassander on Feb 12, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions  

It may not be as bad as you think

Check out my blog post here Dukes and the Deuce and here Dukes and the Deuce part two. I pulled the PitchF/X numbers for 2009, and his problem is really one of focus. If he can lay off the first pitch curveball, he will be fine in 2010.

by natsstats on Feb 12, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Friend of Dukes!!!

" I was just poking the universe to get things started..." -E. Chigliak, Winter 2009
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 12, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

SOOPERDOOKS!!

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Feb 12, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Lay off the first curveball, Elijah!!

" I was just poking the universe to get things started..." -E. Chigliak, Winter 2009
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."

by cat daddy3000 on Feb 12, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

it's time to xxxx or get off the pot

a corner outfielder putting up .250….8 hr..58 rbi’s is definitely on the "you’re expendable " list …….if it happens again.

by The Mamba on Feb 12, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think anyone's denying that...

Actually it say explicitly above that he’s arbitration eligible and if he doesn’t put up there’s little chance he’ll be tendered a contract.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Feb 12, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I wonder if Bill James' AB projections for Dukes

are based on managerial decisions or likelihood of injury. cause 346 ABs seems low to me either way.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 12, 2010 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

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