Looking Through The Lens Of Optimism For A .500 Nationals Season In 2010
by sullyzz on Feb 12, 2010 1:19 PM EST
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PrintThe Washington Nationals began the 2009 campaign without a full, healthy cadre of starting pitchers, and a horrible bullpen. We didn’t notice it as much then as we obviously do now, because we had hopes for Baltimore reject Daniel Cabrera, journeyman Julian Tavarez, and a host of young pitchers (Hanrahan, Ledezma, Colome, Hinckley, Shell, Martis, etc). Most of that bullpen has been replaced with a much better staff, and the starting rotation is also in much better shape heading into a more positive 2010 spring training.
As a result of the Nationals pitching woes in 2009, the team played a horrible .298 pre-All-Star season, which resulted in the firing of Manager Manny Acta. I was one of the ones calling foul, thinking that Manny received a raw deal, but I am beginning to see the err of my ways. The first half of the year, which only resulted in 26 wins in 87 attempts, included 20 Blown Saves from the horrid bullpen. The team ERA was a ridiculously high .521, and Nationals pitchers walked 355 batters. The team defensively did not help the pitchers any either, by having a NL high 143 fielding errors during the entire 2009 season (over 80 during the first half alone).
The Post All-Star half of the season, the Nationals realized marked improvement, even though the team began by losing 7 out of the first 9 games in that early July timeframe. This was likely most attributed to the team becoming more acquainted with the managerial style of new Manager, Jim Riggleman. The team finished the second half of the season by winning 33 games out of 75 attempts, for a .440 winning average, even while playing many games without the injured Nyjer Morgan, and throwing many youngsters into the mix and shutting down some of the starting pitchers during September. During the month of August, in fact, the Nationals won 14 out of 29 games (.498) which proved to be very promising for the ballclub, even though they lost 7 out of 9 during a tough road-trip during the later part of the month.
Considering the improvements that have been made to the team since the middle of last season, it would seem reasonable to think that the team will at least be able to play at the same level of success and intensity that they finished with during the second half of last season. Therefore, without any improvement at all from the second half of 2009, the Nationals should win 44% of their games and finish no worse than 72-90…nine games under .500. The mere thought of the Nationals winning less than 72 games would be to suggest that the Nationals will actually regress this upcoming season, which would be shameful considering the off-season acquisitions. The question would now become, has the rebuilding of the bullpen, the solidifying of the 2B position, the addition of a veteran catcher, the signing of a true closer, the young starters beginning a second season with experience, and the acquisition of Jason Marquis, resulted in a nine win difference in 2010? Call me an optimist, or even a homer, but it seems very possible looking through my lens of optimism at the upcoming 2010 Season.
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What I think it would take to finish .500 or better.
-500-600 ABs each from Zim, the hammer, and Morgan with similar offensive and defensive stats to last season.
-Willy Harris staying out of the infield (less than 75 ABs), but other wise being his self and still getting 200 ABs overall.
-Either Jmax winning RF and batting around league average all season, trading for a new RF who is legit, or Dukes hitting like he did in 2008 (he is terrible defensively and on the basepaths) for the entire 2010 season.
-Dunn being better defensively at first than he has ever been in his career while giving us his career average offense for 500 ABs.
-J Flores getting 350 ABs with the same kind of production he gave us last season when he was healthy.
-Pudge being a strong dugout influence who helps Flores develop as a defender.
-Less than 100 ABs from or any other catcher besides pudge and flores.
-Kennedy playing D like he did in 2008 (not 2009) without getting worse with his bat and staying healthy despite his age.
-Guzman hitting .300 or better again with 500+ ABs or Desmond suprising us and hitting and fielding about league average for SS with 500+ ABs. Or some of both.
-Marquis not pitching like he did for most of his career, but giving us what he did last season in may, june, july, and august, but for close to 200 innings despite a weaker defense behind him.
-Detwiler starting for close to 175 innings with much better luck than he had last season.
-Lannen staying healthy and being the same guy as always..
-The group of Stammen, Zimmerman, Martin, Martis, Mock, and Baelster to give us all remaining starts with a combined ERA in the upper to mid 4s with a 6 inning average per start, and/or Strassburg giving us 150 innings with and era less than 4 and the rest giving us and era in lower 5s or better.
That is it! the bullpen should be roughly average as long as the Starters do as I mentioned above.
Each one above is reasonable by itself, but to get all of them right is unlikely.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
it is likley offense will be worse than last season
Morgan, Dunn, Willingham, and Zimmerman all had above average years for them in 2009. My guess is two will not be quite as good as last year offensively and the other two will the same. That is unless someone get s injured then we will have a big fall off. Pudge can’t hit the broad side of a barn anymore. Neither can Kennedy. Guz had a below average year, but he is banged up so we have a good chance he repeats 2009. Dukes has had 2 seasons of terrible offense and one second half where he hit very well. He is a terrible defensive player and even worse baserunner. I have little confidence in him right now. Jmax is a gold glover with a weak bat. Desmond has only potential with the bat. He has yet to hit very well anywhere, so he can’t save the offense. So barring someone like Derrick Norris showing up and becomming an All Star, its likely the offense is a little worse than last season.
The OF defense should be dramatically improved over last year. Having morgan healthy in CF makes a huge difference. Fangraphs feels he is the best (or nearly so) defensive CF in baseball. Taking Dunn out of the OF also hugely improves it. If Jmax can win the RF job and keep it then we might have a top three OF defense in baseball even with hammer. Hammer is nothing special, but TAWH is gold glove and can fill in when we have leads and against some right handed starters with outstanding results.
The infield defense is no better and potentially worse than last season. Nick Johnson’s glove is waaay better than Dunn’s at first base. That is not even close. Alex Gonzalez was much worse defensively in 2009 than Kennedy, but Kennedy was not that great. Without a return to his 2008 quality with the glove, Kennedy is still below average defensively (and can’t hit) at second. Guz is returning, beat up and a year older, and it would be near impossible for Zim to get better with the glove. Desmond made 17 errors at AAA last season. In other words, if Kennedy improve second as much or more as Dunn costs us at first, ten we might be as good as last season. He does if he returns to his 2008 skills and definately not if he maintains his 2009 skills. I am betting on something in between. So, with no improvement from ss and third we might be a tad weaker glovewise in the infield in 2010 over 2009.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
"and it would be near impossible for Zim to get better with the glove..."
I disagree…Zim made a tonne of Es with the glove (or more with the throws) last season…he could easily be better statistically. Most of those plays anecdotally were easy throws. NJ also didnt play that well with the glove. Guzman led the teams with Es. I actually think that we could play much better this season with the infield… just because these guys played bad last year doesnt always mean they will repreat the performance – more so with the better pitching staff.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
And I left out the horrific 2B efforts last year...
even with an average defensive 2B’man, we would have been better…
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
no question kennedy improves second over last season a lot
but he is still not that great if you look at his numbers in 2009 alone, and Nick is waaaay better than Dunn. So if Guz and Zim are the same then the infield is at best the same, but more likely less defensively.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Sure Zim made a few errors but his range rating and other defensive stats were otherworldy.
He could cut down on his errors and still regress defensively (and still be gold glove). He and Longoria are by far the best defensive thirdbasemen in baseball.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Then Your Opinion Is That The Nats Have Regressed
Everyone has their opinion, but I disagree with much of what you have stated. I could argue against many of the things you have mentioned, and support those arguments with sound statistics (such as the actual fielding stat comparisons of Nick and Adam at 1B this past year); however, I realize that Stats can say anything you want them to say, so I won’t bother to waste our time. I stand by my prediction that the Nats will win at least 72 games (worst case scenario) with a possible “push” toward .500 as a best case scenario. I didn’t mention it in this article, but my actual prediction for the Nats in 2010 is 75- 87. Of course, this depends on the Nats having a somewhat injury-free season as compared to the injury-plagued seasons of the past three years. Yes, I am the eternal optimist when it comes to the Nats…I always look toward the brighter side, but I would not make statements that I didn’t truly believe. BTW….Many thanks for reading my post and commenting….I didn’t expect everyone to agree. In fact, I expected many to hammer my post! LOL
I agree.
I think there are some things that Stats dont cover – and that is enthusiasm and optimism….and I think both will be there this season. I think heads dropped badly when hanny blew the saves early in the season and from there – with a very green rotation – we never recovered. This season could be much different with some very good veteran players hopefully bringing a better sense of professionalism. Im optimistic of a 72-75 win season. I think the guys should be playing more like they did at the end of the season than they did at the start.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
no they are a better just not likely a .500 or better team
but it could happen if the chips fall right. I am betting on around 72 wins myself.
If you want to compare adam and nick at first here is the place to do it.
www.fangraphs.com
You will find Adam had a -25 runs in Ultimate Zone rating/150 and Nick was -6 runs in Ultimate zone rating/150. But neither had a siginificant enough sample in 2009 so you have to go back a few years to get an accurate picture. In 2008 Nick was outstanding and Dunn was about as bad at firstbase as he was in 2009. That makes Dunn the worst defensive firstbasemen in baseball and Nick much better.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
you forget that I stated the OF defense has hugely turned around
that turnaround plus some improvement in the pitching likely cuts about 100 runs or so off the runs against. We score 50 less, but they score 100 less, that makes us better.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Hope springs eternal
I have my doubts that the Nats will be much better this year than last. The only team in their division I see them competing with are the Marlins. The others have pitching staffs far better than theirs. The Nats hierachy once again failed to spend the money necessary to make a significant difference. Outside of Nyjer the outfield is weak both in defense & offense. Kennedy & Dunn both rated at the bottom defensively last year and Guz was average at best. It will take the stars aligning for the Nats to make much of a move in 2010.
Can't agrue with that, and I kind of agree, but hope is more fun than reality.
Baseball has a huge luck eliment and if everything falls right we could win this division. It is just very unlikely.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
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