Washington Nationals: Was Matt Capps The Right Choice?
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 6:37 AM EST
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Print• Had two unnamed sources not leaked details of the Pittsburgh Pirates' negotiations with reliever Matt Capps last December, they might have been able to negotiate a new deal with, or possibly trade, the 26-year-old, 6'3", 235lb right-hander, at least according to Bucs' GM Neal Huntington, who told Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic in a blog post entitled, "Huntington: Capps' money for a replacement", that, "All trade value disappeared when there was a media report of a non-tender."
It wasn't just the leaks that ended Capps' time in Pittsburgh. The Pirates did end up non-tendering their '02 7th Round pick, who'd saved a career-high 28 games while his ERA ballooned from '08's 3.02 ERA (139 ERA+) in 49 games and 53.2 IP to a 5.80 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 games and 54.1 IP in 2009, over which Capps gave up 2.0 more BB/9 than he had the previous season, but in Larry Stone's article on the influence the so-called "Bill James Gang" has had on baseball entitled, "Numbers Game", which is included in Lindy's Sports Annual's 2010 Baseball Preview, Mr. Huntington's decision to part with Capps is cited as an example of a team using statistical analysis to justify their decision, in this case, "...to rid (themselves) of Capps' contract."
Mr. Huntington is said in Mr. Stone's article to have "...commissioned his stat analyst, Dan Fox, to do a study on the value of relief pitching," and Mr. Huntington explained what Pittsburgh found and what led to the Pirates' decision to part with Capps in Mr. Kovacevic's PIttsburgh Post-Gazette article:
"If you're talking about the Matt Capps of '07 or '08, that would be very, very difficult to replace. He's probably not somebody we non-tender. The second half of '08 and into '09 ... it's not that hard to replace a reliever with a 5.00 or 6.00 ERA. We'll miss Matt, and we wish him well. The only reason we had interest in him is that we felt he's due to have a bounce-back year. But there are other options out there."
The Pirates' "other option"? Pittsburgh eventually signed 36-year-old right-hander Octavio Dotel to a one-year/$3.25 million dollar deal with a $4.5 million dollar club option for 2011 or a $250,000 dollar buyout. Capps' deal with the Nationals was for one-year and $3.5 million with performance based bonuses that could earn the potential closer an additional $425,000. In his 11-year MLB career, with seven different teams, Dotel's posted a (46-39) overall record with a 3.73 career ERA, 83 saves and 11.0 K/9. FIve years into his own career, Capps has saved 67 games, while posting a (19-19) record with a career 3.61 ERA, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9...
?'s For The DC Faithful...
• Should the fact that Pittsburgh spent money for a closer, but chose not to spend it on Capps worry fans of the Washington Nationals?
• What did DC GM Mike Rizzo see in Capps that convinced him the reliever would recover from last year's struggles...?
• If the Pirates' GM was interested in Capps, and covinced he'd have a "bounce-back" year, why didn't they keep Capps?
• Is there any doubt in your mind that Capps will claim the closer's role this Spring?
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Capps is an upgrade over MacDougal, ergo it was a good move, period.
As the subject says, the Nats just could not go into 2010 with a closer who had as many walks as strikeouts (MacDougal). No one else on the existing roster has closer makeup so we had to go outside the organization.
Of the FA closers on the market (Capps, Dotel, Gonzalez, Gregg, Lyon, Rodney, Soriano, and Valverde) I think we got the right guy for the right price. This team doesn’t need a type-A $6-$8M/season closer and it doesn’t need a $7M/year experiment like Rodney or Lyon. We needed a middle of the road guy with upside. Capps had an off season in 2009 yes; if he does it again Bruney and Storen are waiting in the wings to take over. But if he can regain his 2007 performance (191 era+!) we have a gem.
I think we have enough ancillary evidence by now that the Pirates GM is among the worst in the game. Do you really want to defend their decisions when they favor us? They traded us Morgan (best defensive player in the game possibly) and a very effective lefty reliever for a retread headcase attitude-laden outfielder who earned a demotion plus a reliever who put up a 54 era+ for us in 2009. It was like stealing players from a baby.
No doubt Capps is the closer come April 1st.
by tboss@bossconsulting.com on Feb 14, 2010 8:33 AM EST reply actions
That 54 ERA+ is brutal...
I don’t disagree with anything you said, and I especially like the Capps singing in light of the fact that they added Storen (who was called a major-league ready reliever from day one) and Bruney, whose desire to close should motivate him to at least lock down the set-up job if he can’t beat out Capps for the closer’s role so that he’s next in line for a shot should Capps falter…
I’m much more comfortable with the Storen, Bruney, Capps than i was last year with Hanrahan just getting handed the job in spite of his complete lack of experience in the role…I do think Hanny and Milledge could end up being quality pros…glad they won’t be trying to so in DC…
At least PIttsburgh has its Penguins…and the Steelers I guess.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure I would go so far as to say Huntington is among the worst
But, non-tendering Capps makes no sense when they turn around and give Dotel over 3 million. If the idea is that the closer position is overvalued and the Pirates DFA’ed Capps because they have a stable of cheap arms that will compete for the closer spot then that’s one thing. But basically swapping Capps for Dotel isn’t a good move. Capps had a 1.66 HR/9 and a .370 BABIP last year, which seems unlucky, and could account for his increased walks. As far as I’m concerned, the Pirates are important in my life only in that they seem to like to give us good players (or potentially good players).
The Bucs really have made a positive contribution to the 2010 Nationals. Thanks, Pittsburgh!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Morgan was they guy we really needed
But the profit to the Bucs was solid as well. Millage can be a solif LF and Hanny is better than Capps because he is cheap.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Huntington is really improving Pittsburg alot
I would call him an above average GM, but he is building to dominate from 2012 to 2020 not this season, so this season may not be that good. But when I look at them on paper they are as good as us.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I'll take Capps/Bruney/Storen
MacDougal was a disaster waiting to happen every time he took the mound. He recovered from his walks = strikeouts ratio by throwing an unsustainable ground ball/fly ball ratio of 3.38. Those extra ground balls resulted in inning ending double plays, but there is no way he could do that 2 seasons in a row. I’m shocked his luck held out as long as it did. Give me Capps or Bruney or Storen. One of those guys will get the job done.
My take on this
The Pirates non-tendering Capps, then turning around and spending equal money on Dotel is like the Tigers trading away Curtis Granderson as a salary dump, then turning around and offering Johnny Damon 2 years/$14 million. Stupid.
by Andrew Davidson on Feb 14, 2010 11:17 AM EST reply actions
How'd Damon get two people to offer $7 a year?
He was valuable for the Yanks, but he’s a year older…and why hasn’t he jumped at that offer after missing out on it the first time…Hope Nick Johnson works out for the Yank…what am I saying…sorry, Nick, but as soon as you put on pinstripes it’s over…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Granderson was not a salary dump.
He regressed two years in a row when he was suppossed to get better, and the tigers have other CF options. Plus, he is considerd a chemistry problem. And the Tigers got some solid prospects in the trade.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
The Right Choice?
Any decently talented free agent, signing to play in Gnatstown for the reigning worst team in MLB……warrants that question.. More so on their part ….than the Gnats part.
Why did Dunn really come here? To know the experience of playing for the worst team? To seriously jeopardize his chances to possibly be a HOF DH for an AL contender?
Marquis? even Capps? Do we know why they ended up here?
Riggleman said sometimes an open role is reason enough for a player to sign....
Capps and Bruney were both happy to come to DC cause they saw the late-inning-opening, and I’m sure that’s what Drew Storen saw the moment he was drafted….
Dunn took the biggest deal on the table and was probably happy to play for Bowden and with ole Kearnsie…plus the Nats were the only who’d still let him play the outfield…but even Washington caved on that one and shifted him to his less costly position at first…I’m still worried about him dropping/missing too many balls at fist….he could determine the success of the whole infield…still not a lot of evidence of his throwing arm in the infield…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Dunn thinks being a DH hurts any chance he has at the HOF.
But he does not realize the defensive metrics are going to kill his chances as well. Plus, no one offered Dunn anywhere near the kind of money we offered.
Same with Marquis and Capps.
All were given much higher offers from us than anyone else.
When we offer just more (like Hudson or Texiera) the player goes elsewhere, but when we offer hugely more they come here. The real question is if this is a wise move for us. I am not sure it is. It smacks of the Royals rebuilding efforts way to much.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Did you see our BP last year?
Who cares about why the Pirates chose not to tender….Capps will have a great year, for us, the Nats!
by NatsGoing2theSeries! on Feb 14, 2010 1:57 PM EST reply actions
I did see the Nationals' bullpen last year...and I choose not to remember it...
On to Twenty-Ten…The Series? Really? Love the optimism…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Most of our bullpens FIPS were much better than ERAs
So last years BP was better than it appeared thanks to our worse than awful defense. Morgan alone will make this years BP much better!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Frankly, I think the Pirates organization tends to make poor decisions...
the Cubs got Aramis Ramierez from the Pirates. The Pirates needed a salary dump and he’s arguably the best third baseman the Cubs have had since Ron Santo. If I remember correctly, I think one of the players we sent them was Bobby Hill. Pirates loss, Cubs gain.
I maintain the Nationals got the better deal getting Nyger Morgan for Lastings Milledge too.
Got a player you need to get rid of ? Look at the Pirates roster, pick out someone that has the potential to flourish in your organization, and trade your problem to the Pirates. Maybe not literally, but it seems like it at times.
"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain
I think you have about 5-6 years before you can judge the Milledge/Morgan swap...
Morgan will be out of the game most likely in the Post Era, and Millege will be 30-31 range Morgan’s in now…he could be an All-Star at that point…maybe? No?
“Pinky, are you pondering what I’m pondering?”—The Brain
“Uh, I think so, Brain, but balancing a family and a career … ooh, it’s all too much for me.” – Pinky
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 14, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I agree... Millage could maybe be an allstar in 5 years
But morgan is the best CF in the game right now if you believe R.J.Anderson of Fangraphs and ESPN. in 5 years he could be done, but right now he is the guy we need to be respectable. Lets bow out heads and hope he stays healthy.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I meant best defensive CF in the game
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Millage and Hanny for Morgan
was a win/win. Millage is a much better LF than CF. He has potential to be a better than average LF (not yet realized) and if he does we will look worse for the trade. Hanny is already above average and better than Capps in the BP. He was hugely unlucky last season and that killed his era. If you go look at avdavanced baseball metrics that is obvious. The batting average on balls in play when he was a Nat was .451. Clearly his defense let him down hugely. Capps was also unlucky but not that unlucky.
Morgan filled the biggest hole I have ever seen a team have when he took over CF last season. And did it real well. But remember the priates have a future allstar replacing him in CF tight now and have several minor leaguers that look similar, so they had CFs to trade. McCutchen is likely better than Morgan longterm.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I gotta believe Matt Capps will be some sort of upgrade
From 2006-2008, he was great. Looking at last years stats, he had a very good April. May-July were terrible. Starting in August to the end of the year, he picked it up.
I think the change in scenery will help him and lets hope he gets some save oppritunitys.
"We're starting to get into Plush mode," Nyjer Morgan said
Capps is about the same as Hanny but more expensive
both have dominating fastballs, throw up in the zone, and walk alot of guys. Not much difference. Capps will have better glovemen in the OF than Hanny got last season with the Nats. But Hanny was much better as a Pirate than Capps in 2009.
Bruney is a reincarnation of Farnsworth in his prime. Good but not great. No control but throws very hard.
Storen could be the real deal!
Note: Macdougal (79%) has a higher save percentage in his career than Capps(75%). And has a better career era and FIP in save situations, so I am not sure Capps improves us all that much over Macdoogy. Probably some. If he is healthy.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Bucs fan here
and will be following Capps closely over the next year. I disagreed with the Capps non-tender at the time, but I m fine with the pen as it stands now. It will be interesting to see if Capps does better than last year or not. If he does, it will be great for the Nats.
Also, to call Huntington a terrible GM is misguided- equally misguided is using the comparison of the Aramis Ramirez trade, made by Dave Littlefield, who was beyond terrible. Hanrahan has been great so far, and I’d give up Burnett for him everytime.
Hanrahan 2009 FIP- 3.19
Capps 2009 FIP- 4.90
Burnett 2009 FIP- 4.57
Same with the Morgan trade- it could be interesting if Milledge develops. Morgan played out of his mind last year, and we’ll see if that holds for 2010. His fielding is probably legit though, and this should be an interesting trade to track through 2012. Also, I don’t know what the DC farm is like wrt CF, but if Morgan has a great start to 2010, it’ll be interesting to see if Rizzo would be open to getting someone to overpay for him. That was my biggest gripe with the trade, that we didn’t get more for Morgan at that point- we do know NH did his best to hype Morgan, calling him the best defensive OF a few days before the trade.
There's no CFer on the horizon and hasn't been since....... way back in the Expo days...
Morgan is just essential at this time with the young pitchers. Lasto and Joel were not going to work out here. The trade for here and now vs. the future will probably work out for both sides for what each is trying to do.
Capps better not suck, though….
" I was just poking the universe to get things started..." -E. Chigliak, Winter 2009
Mezza: ''Are we there yet?'' ...Roscoe: "In baseball hell? Yes we are."
by cat daddy3000 on Feb 14, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
If Morgan can play well this year and Burnett does ok – we’ll have got what we wanted…some stability in some key positions in the short term.
Im sure im not the only one that thinks that Milledge will be as advertised: an above avg hitter, below avg defense, and a below avg attitude. Hanny will be a bullpen regular. But that is it – I’ll be very surprised if either turn out to be AllStars. I just dont see it (but dont wish either harm). I dont see this trade as being anything other than a decent deal for both teams to be frank and unbiased.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
Everyone has missed the boat I believe
What everyone is missing, I believe, is that Huntington could have easily kept Capps as a setup guy where he would probably excelled. The reason he was run out of Pittsburgh was because of his makeup (see Sean Burnett, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, et al).
Capps throws straight as an arrow heat and relies on an average slider to setup the pitch so it’s not like the Nats picked Huntington’s pocket. It’s more that Capps’ stuff fits the NLED a lot better. Dotel won’t be an improvement except that he can mentor, which is what 2010 is all about to the Bucs – development.
Pray your guys are up by at least two when Capps comes in. If you are, you’ll probably be ok.
Morgan is going to be 30 in July too.Milledge is 24.Pirates have a guy in CF who is even faster than NYJ,and hit 12 HRs/54 RBI/.286 in 108 games.McCutcheon just turned 23 too.It’s pretty easy to see why Morgan was traded +Hanny’s ERA of 1.91 for Pitts might give the Bucs a lotta smiles for a lotta years.
From a Pirate fan
I understand that Nyjer was like a breath of fresh air for the Nats last year but you folks need to temper your expectations a bit. Fielding stats are just about completely irrelevant. When Nate Mclouth won a gold glove a few years ago there were defensive metrics that said he was the worst CF in baseball.
Nyjer get’s bad jumps on balls and makes up for it with his speed. He’s an ok fielder, don’t get me wrong. He’s not gonna hurt you in CF but those rankings prove just how insignificant those defensive metrics are.
Also, you can expect to be very frustrated by the fact that he’s gonna overslide second base about 15 times a year, lol. Literally. I don’t know wtf his problem is but the guy ran us out of alot of innings last year.
Burnett is ok. He had a bit of an attitude problem though. But he’s an upgrade in your bullpen.
That said, I think the Pirates got the better end of this deal. I suspect that Hanrahan was one of many pitchers who suffered last year from the World Baseball Classic. You guys should know that Lastings has been praised for his attitude since coming to the Burgh and also for showing up to voluntary mini camp in tremendous shape. The guy is 24 with tremendous talent.
Which brings me to Capps. The Pirate front office has been very strict with players regarding their conditioning. Capps was clearly not on board with this. And I can’t help but think it had something to do with his release. Don’t get me wrong, there are some pitchers who can be effective carrying that spare tire. They are exceptions though.
And to the people talking about the Aramis deal, the entire FO and really the entire organization has been torn down and rebuilt since Huntington and Coonelly took over 2 years ago.
Good luck to you guys. Here’s to hoping Rizzo blew his wad of cash last year on Strasburg and he passes on Harper this year. He’d look real nice in a Bucco uniform. LOL.
As
Another Pirates fan I would have to disagree with your statement that fielding stats are completely irrelevant. Gold Gloves are mostly irrelevant but things like UZR are valid. One of the issues with UZR is just that people take the stat and just look at sample sizes that are too small most of the time — but that’s not the fault of UZR, rather the people who don’t read about the stat and realize it takes a ton of innings before you can get a truly accurate reading on a player’s fielding ability.
Anyway, I think everyone thinks Matt Capps will bounce back, everyone is just waiting to see to what level.
I'm just glad the Nats drafted Drew Storen and traded for Bruney...
When Hanrahan faltered last year they basically auditioned everyone in the bullpen for the role, as least Rizzo has a safety net…
And for the record, I like the team the Pirates are putting together.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Feb 15, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
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