Run Expectancy Weekend Continues: AL vs NL

by Doghouse on Feb 7, 2010 5:25 PM EST

So, once you have all the data to hand, slicing and dicing is the easy part. Remember how we compared the Nats' 2009 run expectancy to the NL average yesterday? Well, here's the AL average, just for laughs:

Runners	no out	1 out	2 out
---	0.53	0.29	0.11
1--	0.91	0.53	0.23
12-	1.54	0.91	0.45
123	2.33	1.60	0.75
1-3	1.88	1.23	0.53
-2-	1.14	0.67	0.33
-23	2.03	1.43	0.56
--3	1.43	0.92	0.34

Right off, we can see that AL teams score an average of 0.53 runs per inning versus the NL average of 0.48--just what you'd expect from the ~~cheater~~ training wheel league! A review of the NL table and comments after the jump.

Recall the NL average run expectancy:

Runners	no out	1 out	2 out
---	0.48	0.26	0.09
1--	0.83	0.51	0.21
12-	1.39	0.88	0.41
123	2.12	1.45	0.66
1-3	1.64	1.13	0.48
-2-	1.09	0.65	0.28
-23	1.95	1.35	0.52
--3	1.19	0.95	0.37

The AL scores about 5-10% more runs on average in any given base/out situation. Oddly, the only situations where the NL does better is when there's a runner on third with one or two outs: those situations happened roughly a thousand times (or more) in each league in 2009, so it doesn't look like a "small numbers" fluke. I also went through and added up the number of times each league was in each situation to see if there were interesting patterns (these are all expressed as a percentage of total PA for the league):

Runners	AL	NL
None	54.9%	54.9%
RISP	26.8%	27.2%
Loaded	2.7%	2.8%
First	18.3%	17.9%
Second	8.5%	8.9%

Both leagues came to bat with the bases empty and the bases loaded about the same amount of times, although the NL came up with RISP slightly more often. NL batters had a runner on second more often, while the AL had a runner on first more often--again, the differences aren't that large. Still, I thought it was neat, even if I don't know what it means.

See any deeper insights? Put 'em in the comments! One more, and then we're done with run expectancy until the AS break.

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Comments

the better numbers with a runner on 3rd

is probably just happenstance, cant imagine what else it could be… is the NL doing something different when the runner is on 3rd with 1 or 2 outs?

by martins on Feb 7, 2010 8:08 PM EST reply actions

could be...

especially if u are looking at batters 6-8… far more important for NL batters to come through in those situations than get to the number 9 man. But its all speculative from me…

"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.

by Mezza on Feb 7, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions

Well most NL teams frequently pinch hit for pitchers with RISP

And some pitchers can actually hit a bit as well, so I would figure the difference is smaller than most think in terms of batting with RISP over the years between the leagues.

The NL having more situations with men on second probably is related in part to pitcher SAC bunts. NL should score less often as a result, but will move more men from 1st to 2nd on outs more often. The AL will have fewer Dps but more 1st and third, or base clearing homers. This difference is probably small but significant .

The Mets had 3x as many doubles as home runs. I’ll bet if we looked at it tn NL we would find it bit more likely to double and less likely to homer or triple per PA. again this would lead to more atbats with men on second.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Feb 8, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions