Washington Nationals: Should They Sign Adam Dunn Long-Term?
The 2-year/$20 million dollar contract then-DC GM Jim Bowden offered Adam Dunn last February had the hallmarks of all the bad Bowden (pronounced bO-den) deals he'd made while running things in the nation's capital, following the trade for Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns, (both former Reds like Dunn), the signing of another Cincy project, Wily Mo Pena, and the two-year deals he gave to Ronnie Belliard, Dmitri Young and Cristian Guzman, and it came with no one in baseball willing to come close to what Washington was offering Dunn, which in the end is why the 29-year-old 40 HR/100 RBI "guarantee" eventually ending up signing in DC.
After five straight seasons of at least 40 HR's, Dunn fell short of forty last season, connecting on just 38 HR's in 159 games, though he came closer to a .400 OBP (.398) than he's come since he finished at .400 even in 2002 with the Reds. The 6'6'', 278lb Texas-born-and-raised left-handed slugger played left as long as they would let him last year, putting up a worst-ever UZR/150* of (-38.2) in 62 games in left field, with a slightly less unsightly (-25.0) UZR/150 in 67 games at first. (ed. note - "Don't ask about right field, it's in the (-40's) or something."), but he quickly endeared himself to the DC Faithful with the kind of power not seen since Frank Howard was turning RFK's seats white. The kind of HR's that have always kept fans in seats since the Senators of the 70's, waiting until that last AB's over just in case he sends one out...Which is why the Washington Nationals are considering signing Adam Dunn to an extension...
The idea first came up, publically at least, during the Washington Nationals' Hot Stove Lunch, when the team made the mistake (I'm kidding) of letting the fans ask the Nationals' GM, team President and several players anything they wanted in a public setting with members of the print, radio, tv and internet media in attendance. Of course, one enthusiatic Dunn fan asked DC GM Mike Rizzo, (as recounted by Washington Post writer Chico Harlan in a Nationals Journal article entitled, "Adam Dunn contract extension talk at Nationals hot stove lunch"), "...if there was a timetable to extend Dunn's contract, because," the fan continued, "we'd really like to see him retire as a National," and to the surprise of many, (including this intrepid repor...writ..blah..uh?), Mr. Rizzo responded:
"'It's something that we've discussed with Adam and his people...We had a little conversation this afternoon about it. ... Seriously, he's become one of the family. We love him here. He had a terrific season for us last year, he's one of the most consistent players in the league, and he's a guy that fits for us long-term.'"
(ed. note - "Seriously? Does the fact that Mr. Rizzo had to qualify not strike anyone else as humorous?")
At the time, Dunn cautioned that, "...it sounded a lot cooler up there than it really was," telling Mr. Harlan, "We're just getting everything going; kind of one of those deals." "One of those deals" today, became the 30-year-old incumbent first baseman telling Nationals Insider's Mark Zuckerman in a post entitled, "Dunn ready to commit", that he wants to remain a National beyond this year, and as Mr. Zuckerman writes, "...if Dunn had his way, he and the Nats would agree to a long-term extension before the club breaks camp."
It took Washington til the middle of April last year to finally agree on the deal that will keep Ryan Zimmerman in Washington through twenty-thirteen. Zimmerman signed a 5-year/$45 million dollar deal to affirm his commitment to being part of what DC GM Mike Rizzo and team President Stan Kasten are building. Does Adam Dunn fit into the Nationals' long-term plans? Wait, Rizzo just said he did. Before he signed in DC, Dunn was destined for retireme...uh, a DH role in the American League, how many more years will he be able to produce at this level? Shouldn't Rizzo get a bigger sample of his play at first before deciding? Is that mean? Should Washington sign Adam Dunn to an extension? How much will it take?
(ed. note - " * = I don't know if it was the worst ever, but it was atrocious.")
(ed. note - "If you haven't seen Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore's post entitled, "Adam Dunn takes the mound", you should have clicked that link before finishing the sentence...because it looks like it might be Strasburg and Dunn, one and two in the rotation in 2011.")
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Would be interesting to see what happens to Marrero if they do.
I think someone asked that of Ladson? Or whoever… it would mean that maybe the organisation isnt sold he will make to the bigs.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
Mr. Ladson said he could go back to the outfield...poor kid...
drafted as a 3B, moved to outfield, moved to first….now back to the OF…good thing they drafted him young so they aren’t wasting his prime years learning new positions…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
stop moving these guys around...
insanity. I just hope they let these guys develop…if we have too many 1B that can hit…then we can trade Dunn and move Marrero in. Id be annoyed if they move him to the outfield…im sure he would too.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
Marrero
A career minor league slugging % of .462. Okay, not great. We need to see more pop if he wants to be a first baseman, that figure is better suited for a corner OF position not corner IF.
To compare that to other major league 1b. I will give a good variety here to clearly show my point that .462 is not enough.
Adam dunn, minor league, .525 ( but an explosive .671 as a 21 year old) Marrero is 20.’
Nick Johnson .483 w/ .548 at age 20
Adam Laroche .451 but highlight by a disastrous 21 year old year
Mark Grace : soft hitting .518
James Loney: .430 – but is a batting title type.
Mark Teixiera: .583
Kevin Millar: .507
Kendry Morales : .528
Casey kotchman: .490
Chris Davis: .582
Derrek Lee: .483
I can keep going. Some of these guys developed a little late, some of these guys killed the ball much much more than Marrero. Additionally that had better OBP figures. Either way Marrero needs to step up in terms of SLG and OBP in order to be a plausible replacement for Dunn. At this point, if he can’t slug more than .462 in the Minors, then he’d be a most certain sub .800 OPS candidate in the MLB (.807 in the minors). Just not realistically acceptable for a 1st baseman of any kind, unless he is a gold glove type at first. In fact its not really acceptable at ANY corner position, IF or OF.
Wait on him, let him develop, he clearly doesn’t have the goods yet and unless he has a big year this year he’ll be in the system a few more years. Sign Dunn or bring in some additional talent at first.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
And from all reports, he is not a Gold Glove at first...
Though he’s supposedly improved…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Yes that wasnt really my point...
My point was that its hard for guys like Marrero to develop when you keep moving them positions. I dont have an issue with Dunn being signed.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
I don’t think there will be many suitors for Dunn at the end of the season. Not unless they are from the AL. Dunn doesn’t want to play in the AL, or DH, so if the Nats offer him a reasonable sum, they could lock him up. If he walks, that is fine, Marrero is waiting in the wings.
Why not us? Why not now?
If they sign him to a new deal, it better only be for an additional 1 or 2 years
Dunn has classic old player skills, so when he does decline, it will be quick and painful. He’s a fan favorite and that’s important for a team like the Nats, but a long-term deal could turn into a huge problem really fast.
I agree. You can't extend Dunn more than two years...
I just don’t think he’s going to improve defensively and sooner or later the offense is going to decline…I can’t believe I’m sort of advocating this after what I saw at first in the last WBC…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 9:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i concur
Dunn’s “skill set” gets old fast. combine that with the brutal fielding—and let’s be honest, by the time you’re 30, you are what you are defensively—if he’s signed to a long-term deal (more than two years) it could become an albatross real quickly.
he might have come to camp with the best intentions of learning the proper footwork and positioning and all around the bag, but your can’t change heavy feet. it’s what doomed him in the OF and what will continue to doom him at first. running in a straight line (i.e. on the base paths) he’s not particularly slow for his size. but laterally and quickness-wise, he’s terrible.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 2, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
I'm really interested to see what kind of arm he's got too...
His work from the mound the other day aside, I haven’t seen too much evidence of whether or not he can make the throw to 2nd for the DP, or home if need be…
I think a lot is being taken for granted with Dunn at first because of his power, which, admittedly, is not going to be replaced by anyone already in the Nats’ organization…
A reluctant extension from me…Why The RZO just seems to flat-out love Dunn is interesting to me and makes me wonder how much of a clubhouse leader he actually is…must be something good about him other than the homers…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Don't want Dunn
I really hope we trade Dunn at the deadline. His defense is particularly important with all our groundball pitchers and players with his skill set do not age well. If we sign him I envision something like 2/25 or 3/36 which I think would be a big mistake.
We could put that money to better use in the offseason and draft. First base is the easiest position to fill and we actually have a quasi-prospect in Marrero.
Trade Dunn to the first AL team with an injury and get whatever you can. I keep hoping to see an Adam Dunn + cash go to Bos, TB or another team with young talent. I’m dreaming of someone like Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Jeff Neiman, Reid Breignc.
I think the worst thing would be to see a Dunn extension before the season even starts. I hope the RZO will watch Dunn play 1st for half a season, before committing the big bucks. (Plus we should see how Marrero starts because the OF is a joke.)
What if you can't deal Dunn...are you still okay with the draft picks you'd get if he left? Just wondering...
I just think no one likes to help a struggling franchise, and neither Rizzo nor Bowden has been able to extract the kind of package you’re talking about in return for Soriano…or anyone else Washington was looking to deal…
Like I said, I’m reluctanly thinking an extension might work for a year or two, but no mas…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Bad Extension is a Bad Extension
I honestly will be happy if Adam Dunn walks away at the end of year leaving the Nationals with nothing. I don’t think we would even get draft picks for Dunn because first we would have to offer him arbitration first. We’d be too scared he would accept and make 1/14+M. Maybe that really is the best scenario. Offer him arb and either get the expensive 1 year deal or get draft picks. Either way the big mistake would be a long term extension, especially during the spring.
I do think a trade market will develop even if the guys I mentioned above are too good. Dunn’s bat plays for almost every AL team and there will be injuries coming any day. CHW, TB, BOS, TEX all seem like possible trade partners. The Nats should offer to pay the rest of Dunn’s contract in any deal to maximize the prospect they can get in return.
It is an interesting debate...
Just surprised Rizzo’s so gung-ho on signing him from press accounts…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 11:44 AM EST reply actions
Fan Favorite
Rizzo knows that the majority of fans love Dunn. He brings some excitement and protects ZIMM and Willingham. I think as much as he walks could increase Willinghams RBI total. The team was just as bad in 09 as 08 but our HR leader wasnt at 14hr’s on the year a little bit more watchable product offensivley at least. I personally vote for 2 or 3 year extension.
Any connection between Rizzo and Bill Bavasi?
Because this has the makings of Richie Sexson part 2.
Ouch, Dunn = New Big Sex-y...
Sexson is on my ?(suspect) List…sorry, Richie…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 12:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If I was better at stats
…I’d do a comparison of Dunn’s value in the NL as a 1B vs. the AL as a DH/Backup 1B. Assuming he gets a few starts at 1B even in the AL, the difference between the two positions is less than half of a win in positional value, with DH being the lesser. However, by NOT playing defense, you add probably at least that many runs back to Dunn’s side of the ledger as a DH.
My guess is that Dunn will be worth about a win more per season, or about $3.5-$4 million, to an AL team than to the Nats. Minus whatever value the Nats add for keeping the fans happy. Over a three year deal that number gets to be $10 or $15 million. Not sure Dunn’s going to be willing to sacrifice that much scratch.
OTOH no-D guys like him have seen a decline in interest lately so I may be exagerrating his value in the AL. But it only takes one team that thinks he’s the answer to all their problems for him to get that kind of deal.
As for Morerro..don’t a lot of guys fill out in their mid-20’s? I would worry more about plate discipline and OBP at this point in his career than the sheer power numbers.
Marrero was a high school pick too....
So he’s still got time…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 1:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The idea of how much less damage Dunn would do...
If he was a DH is interesting, but seemingly no AL team wanted him…or at least weren’t offering near what he got from DC to play the real version of the sport…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 1:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And, uh, by "real" version...
I if course mean NL ball…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 1:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Oh man
This is probably not the place I want to get into THAT discussion. Can’t we discuss something less controversial…like politics or religion?
When Dunn was on the market it was flooded with similar guys. You had Abreu, who could play more D, and the aging Griffey and Garret Anderson all from the left side.
The next market might favor him a little more. And it only takes one team. Look at the Bay situation…his defense is subpar and even with a terrific bat he wasn’t getting much play. Still signed a big deal with the Mets. If the Yanks need a DH next year…they might come calling.
Dunn's skill set
Everyone keeps announcing that Dunn’s “skill set” will rapidly decline. It’s an interesting notion. Will his outstanding batting eye all of a sudden go cloudy?
Dunn is on his way to the Hall of Fame, UNLESS he goes and plays as a DH for more than a couple of years. The Hall doesn’t like DHs, and they shouldn’t. He would be very unwise to agree to terms with an AL squad that wants to make him a DH, and in fact this was probably a major reason why he didn’t sign with one last year.
Nobody seems to recall
I don’t like UZRs for 1b’s because they only factor in the fielding of batted, not thrown balls — and first basemen handle far more thrown balls than batted ones. Dunn saved a fair number of balls in the dirt off Zimm’s arm, and used his big frame to grab several wild tosses launched by Guzman and his sore shoulder. He didn’t get credit for any of that stuff. So, no, his ability to field hot shots to his right isn’t particularly good, but I think it’s way overplayed — since there are not that many hot shots hit that way.
Thank you! I was just about to make that point.
I know some think I’m a broken record on Dunn’s defense, but he definitely bailed Zim out on more than a few occasions. Ditto for Guz zingers.
Plus, since I’m ever the optimist, I DO think his defense will improve this year after going through an entire ST and preparing to play first for the season.
Heck yeah, sing the Big Donkey for a few more years!
You make an interesting case
Both the idea of old player skills and UZR aren’t set in stone (although I disagree with your stance on both). But, when you say that Dunn is on his way to the HOF?…What??? I feel quite confident in saying, on the record, that Dunn is not going to the HOF, nor has he had anywhere near a HOF-type career so far.
to say that he has had nowhere near a HOF career is a little strong
if you want to say his defense disqualifies him, thats another story… but hypothetically, if he were an average defender, he would be pretty close. The guy is near tops in baseball in WOBA and SECA every year almost without exception… He slugs 50 0 every year without exception… his career OBP is pushing 390.
He dosent deserve to get it… I dont think players who only do one thing well do. (I didn’t think ozzie smith deserved to get in either) But to say he isnt close isnt accurate in my opinion.
Let's say...
…Dunn plays 6 more years averaging 35 HR and 90 BB. That will put him in the top 20 all time in homers and walks. No qualified player in the top twenty in either of those categories has been shut out of the Hall.
If we want to cherry-pick numbers
Then I should point out that he ranks #131 at OPS+, right between Roy Cullenbine and Jim Edmonds.
Cherry picking?
First off, you’ll find LOTS MORE HoF voters who will look at career home runs and career walks than you will voters who look first at “OPS+”. I’m not cherry picking here, I’m observing that Dunn does two things extraordinarily well: he hits homers and he draws walks.
As to your stat, I note that Dunn currently ranks 55th on the all time list in OPS (min 5000 PA) (I don’t have the OPS+ rankings handy). He’s probably higher than that in OPS+ since a large portion of his OPS is tied to his OBP. 5000 is a pretty good baseline for PAs, as there are very few hitters in the Hall with fewer than that.
He definitely ranks up there in home runs, but if you’re going to talk about walks, you also have to talk about strikeouts. And, you’re right, voters probably don’t look at OPS+, but they do look at batting average!
cherry pick numbers?
are you serious? You gave one statistic he is deficent in when I gave 5 that he excels at…. who’s cherrypicking again?
You're right
OPS+ doesn’t really tell you much about how good or bad a player is… Dunn is a three true outcomes guy, does it make sense to only talk about two of the three?
…Dunn plays 6 more years averaging 35 HR and 90 BB
Forget about the 35 and 90, what are the chances that Dunn can play for 6 more years????
Pretty good
I would say that Dunn’s chances of playing 6 more are pretty good. Another attribute, unmentioned here as yet, is that Dunn has proved to be a resilient and durable player. He’s played in 150+ games in 7 of his 8 “full time” ML seasons. That’s pretty good. I’m sure he’s near the top of the list in terms of games played in the 2000’s.
Dunn plays 6 more years
He’ll get time in as a 1B, then he will give in and play DH a couple years. See how long Thome is hanging on. Big Frank grabbed a couple more AB’s with the A’s/Jays. Dunn will play 6 more years.
Why not us? Why not now?
Ok, I guess I didn't define 6 more years well
I don’t mean that he’ll ride the pine and grab less than 100 ABs per season. Rob is saying that he’ll hit 35 hr for 6 more years. I admire his optimism, but he’s wrong
Talking about walks means talking about strikeouts...?
I don’t understand this. Strikeouts aren’t the antithesis of walks. They are simply outs. Most always, strikeouts are no better or worse than groundouts, flyouts, or popups.
Makes little difference
Basically this ability doesn’t vary much between 1B’s and doesn’t change their value significantly. Their range matters more and Dunn probably won’t do well in this area. Based on his career numbers and a little improvement by focussing on the job in ST and dedicating himself to it, I think Dunn can do -10 UZR at 1B. But this is a massive improvement over his performance in the outfield and makes him a worthwhile asset on his current deal.
The problem comes if he declines quickly in his early 30’s. I wouldn’t sign him for more than three more years. Two would be better for an NL team since his range is likely to get worse before his bat.
WIASADWWBAAURZFMD
Everyone’s got an opinion on Dunn’s ability or lack of it as a fielder.
So….
When it’s all said and Dunn(WIASAD), What would be an acceptable UZR (WWBAAURZ) for Mr. Dunn (FMD)?
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
Proof?
I’ve seen plenty of 1bs who have all sorts of difficulty fielding thrown balls in the dirt, or who can never turn a high throw into an out. I’ve seen plenty that manage to field everything their bad defense-partners throw at them. In short, I really doubt that this sort of metric has been fully studied (mostly because of lack of data).
I agree with the stuff about catching throws and all that, but what I'm trying to say is this...
There are many who are of the opinion that Dunn, despite his bat and his leadership, is not a good player for this team to keep around because of his atrocious defense (and the fact that at his age it is unlikely he will show any improvement and so forth and so on).
Fair enough.
So, I’m asking this: What URZ are the nay sayers predicting for Dunn 2010 and, assuming his offense performance remains consistent with how he performed last year, what URZ would it take to elevate him in to a level that is acceptable?
The proof will be in the pudding.
Ummmmmmm, pudding.
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
Perhaps I'm being overly simplistic
I think that Dunn’s power and patience make him a valuable asset in any lineup, and I also think that defense for first basemen is a very minuscule statistic. No, he’s not a good defender, but I’d much rather have him around than Nick Johnson, a purported fantastic defender with no power. Although it’s difficult to measure, I am certain that NL pitchers, faced with the prospect of a runner on second, Zimmerman at the plate and Dunn on deck, will adjust their pitch routines in ways that they are not comfortable with. One three-run johnson can ruin your whole day as a starter, you know? If it was some other, lesser, hitter behind Zim, perhaps he doesn’t get that fastball in a 2-1 count…
This sort of thing happens in nearly every game. Far more often than the hot shot that may or may not get under Dunn’s slow glove.
The thing about Dunn on this team
Is that he is a 1.3 WAR player, and with the switch to 1B is going to be something like a 2 WAR player. He is DEFINITELY a good player, but emphasizing his offense over his defense obscures what he means to this organization: i.e. what combination of skills can get you to the 2 WAR level, and at what cost? Dunn will make $12 million this year. Meanwhile, a guy like Adam LaRoche is a 2.5 WAR guy who is making $6 million. Casey Kotchman is a 1 WAR player making $3.5 million, and Russ Branyan has a bad back, but he’s a 2.8 WAR player (for 2010, let’s call him a 2 WAR) who’s making $2 million. The Dunn contract was a pretty good one when he signed it, but to extend him along similar lines would be a huge overpay now. If the Nats want to become a good team, they are going to need to spend their money better and sign good value players instead of expensive players.
And one more thing
I bet someone is going to say that Dunn better than a 2 WAR player, but in this market, in order for Dunn to be exactly worth his contract for this year, he will have to be about a 3.5 WAR player. And that’s just for the Nats to break even.
I mean get real Doc.
In a perfect would you might be right, but it ain’t.
The Nats don’t have any leverage right now, so at least for awhile they are going to have to overpay.
I amazes me that on one hand people are saying the Learners need to spend more money and on the other criticize them when the won’t pony up the extra dough necessary to lure a free agent.
This isn’t fantasy baseball.
And so what if the Nats overpay?
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
So what is that the Nats are spending about $60 million this year. $20 million of that is split between Dunn and Guzman, if you through in Marquis, it’s almost $27.5 million (but I think everyone can agree that Marquis was a good signing). The Lerners do need to spend more money, but for now they aren’t, and we need to get as much out of that $60 as possible. They are currently spending almost 1/3 of their budget on two players who combined for 2.1 WAR last year. Look at their roster: Pudge, Dukes, the back-end of their pitching staff. In a perfect world everyone will do great and we will all be happy. But, we could and should have more average-type players on this team, and if we spent our money better, we might be a 75-80 win team.
spend it on who?
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
Could've used an extra $5M for Aroldis Chapmam...
Though I know Rizzo chose to stop the pursuit…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 4, 2010 9:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Great discussion too...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 4, 2010 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Chapman would have been an interesting pick-up, trying for one of the high-risk pitchers on a one year contract: Bedard, Duscherer, Harden, Sheets would have been nice… a lot of people on this blog could probably come up with good names.
And the thing is, this is a really good discussion. We both agree Dunn is a good player, but we disagree on his value relative to his contract, and his future value.
I'm enjoying it!
but unfortunately I need to spend some time playing my own version of Moneyball…
I’ll have to check in later…
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
spending 30 mil
on an unproven pitcher is moneyball.
Doc… I understand your point in theory but I’m really trying to understand it in the context of the Nats…. so turn back the clock 4 months and tell me what you/the Nats should have/could have done.
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
I meant
spending 30 mil
on an unproven pitcher is moneyball with a question mark
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
It's not moneyball
The A’s back then had Zito, Mulder, Harden, Haren. Those were good pitchers. And Bean was going after good OBP guys, which everyone understands now (except maybe the Royals). This is spending your money wisely. You can’t out-Mets the Mets with only $60 million. You can’t get superstars, but you can improve on the worst players on your roster. The thing about Dunn and Guzman is that they’re gone after this year. That’s $20 million more for next season.
by docholliday3 on Mar 4, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
And from memory acquired most if not all through the draft and trades
Moneyball does not equal big free agent signings. Its about getting good value for money.
In which case we should let Dunn walk (so to speak) in a contract year and take the benfits of Type A draft picks.
"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.
I keep seeing you throw around this 1.3 WAR ...
I don’t know where you get this number. PECOTA projects to a 3.4 WARP; CHONE projects to a 3.1 WAR, which is quite reasonable production for a 12 mill player.
War! What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing!
Uh-Huh.
Sorry, the Temptation was just to great.
(plus, I know I’m dating myself)
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
as if I haven't already dated myself numerous times
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
1.3 WAR isn't a projection
It’s how he performed the past two years
I just looked at the CHONE projections
And they say Dunn will be a -4.0 UZR 1B next year. I don’t even think the biggest Dunn fans in the world would expect him to do that well in the field
wasnt it you who pointed out
that Dunn’s WAR is misleading because of the split time at 1b and OF? Wasn’t it you who said he was probably closer to a 2.1 WAR last year? Are we just forgetting all that now that it dosen’t support your position?
It's not like you scoured the comments section
I said he would be something like a 2 WAR player about three comments above this one. So don’t act like you caught be contradicting myself. You asked me where the 1.3 WAR came from, and I told you. Dunn was a 1.3 WAR player last year. I think he’ll be about 2 WAR in 2010. He’s still not worth his contract. Do you have any more questions that you would like me to answer?
yea
you said hed be a 2 war player next year, not that he should have been one this year… this year you keep repeating that he was a 1.2WAR… so dont pretend like i dont know what im talking about just because ur misrepresenting things.
Also… if he is a 2 WAR player next year, that means every projection we’ve seen is off by more than a full win… so i dont know where ur getting that from
yea, this dated you
not the username or anything:)
I couldn't agree with you more
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
Liked your point about UZR for first baseman, RobBob...
The HOF comment did have me running to Dunn stat pages to see if that was a possibility…He’s hit HR’s with a consistency that’s definitely not seen too often…
But the bad D, the K’s, I don’t know…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 2, 2010 8:28 PM EST reply actions
Heard Dunn interview on Sports junkies radio this am
now i know why the Textbook DH signed to play in the NL…there are no NASA recruiters knocking down his door to be a Rocket Scientist…
The stat is….MLB All Time Home Run per At Bat Leaders
#1
Mark McGwire
Batting Stats " 583 172 10.61 6187 1167 1626 1414 .263 .588
#2
Babe Ruth
Hall of Fame
Batting Stats " 714 41 11.76 8398 2174 2873 2217 .342 .690
#3
Barry Bonds
2007 NL All Star
Batting Stats " 762 -7 12.92 9714 2198 2902 1972 .299 .608
#4
Jim Thome
Batting Stats " 540 215 13.59 6603 1295 1861 1347 .282 .565
#5
Adam Dunn
Batting Stats " 278 477 13.92 3141 575 774 524 .246 .516
The last Rocket Scientist to play baseball was Bill Lee
Dunn ain’t dumb… or if he is he’s Huck Finn dumb.
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
There's a great Spaceman article on the site here somewhere...
Will search for link when not on mobile…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 4, 2010 9:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's a movie not an article...
Lee travels to Cuba to keep playing…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 4, 2010 10:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I recently heard about that movie
I just checked with a video store around here that has all kinds of off the wall stuff but they don’t have it.
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
HERE:
Watch for free when you’re bored:
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 4, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

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