Washington Nationals: Cristian Guzman Going...Nowhere? Pt. 2.
All winter Nationals fans read about someone MLB.com's Bill Ladson once described, in an article entitled, "Desmond ready to take over at shortstop", as a, "...front-office person (who) believes [Ian] Desmond needs a half season in the Minors before making another appearance at Nationals Park." This past Monday, Washington Post sports columnist Thomas Boswell might have shed some light on the identity of at least one (if not "thee" one) member of the Nats' front office who believes, as Mr. Boswell writes, that if, "...Riggleman picks [Cristian]Guzmán," as the Nationals' everyday SS, "then...Desmond should play every day in the minors." The DC GM Mike Rizzo.
• Rest of the story and afternoon LINKS after the JUMP...
Mr. Boswell writes that the DC GM, "...has told Manager Jim Riggleman to pick his starting shortstop," because, "That's a skipper's call," BUT, "...Rizzo's strong preference is that Desmond play every day somewhere." (ed. note - "If that last line only read, 'Rizzo strong preferences is that Desmond play shortstop ever day somewhere,' I'd be much more comfortable considering Mr. Riggleman's "utility role" talk for the 24-year-old Desmond, especially after the Nationals just released the player who was supposed to start the season in right field.")
As for the rumors, which 1050 ESPN Radio's Rich Coutino tweeted Tuesday, about the New York Mets looking at Guzman as a possibility should shortstop Jose Reyes not be ready for the start of the season, MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote yesterday, in an article entitled, "Mets not interested in Nats' Guzman", that, "While the Nats may be looking to trade shortstop Cristian Guzman...don't look for the Mets to acquire his services." So the Mets aren...wait? The Nats may be looking to trade Guzman? (ed. note - "No one will take the $8M.")
• Afternoon LINKS and LINKS and...
Dukes Talk:
• Who's the new right fielder? - NATS INSIDER - Mark Zuckerman
"So the Nationals are entering treacherous waters here, hoping to make do with a revolving door of Willie Harris, Justin Maxwell and Mike Morse (and perhaps Roger Bernadina, though his name didn't come up much yesterday among team officials)."
• Capitol Punishment: It Is Enough--A Washington Nationals Blog - Chris Needham
"Elijah Dukes, no matter his potential, is not a great player. Last year, he wasn't even a good one. He was, frankly, terrible. His non-existent WAR didn't even reflect the horrific nature of his craptastic base-running."
"In times like this, when the Nationals do something that I disagree with (and I disagree with releasing Elijah Dukes--at minimum I would have sent him down to the minors if you must, but don't just cut him), I try to focus on the process rather than the outcome."e with releasing Elijah Dukes--at minimum I would have sent him down to the minors if you must, but don't just cut him), I try to focus on the process rather than the outcome."
• Ask Boswell: Nats Spring Training, Stephen Strasburg, Caps and more - washingtonpost.com
"None of the other Nats ever say that they don't like Dukes. But several have said that others find him a distracting personality. At times, he does seem to "tick." That's the curse of having earned a bad reputation. Even as you try to change, people still see you through the prism of your past. Maybe it's not fair, but it's certainly how things work."
(ed. note - Apparently there was a Nationals game yesterday, while I seethed over Dukes, Dave stayed focused.")
• Odd Marketing Practices: (ed. note - "All I'll say about these next two links, is that a personal friend had a similarly odd encounter with a Nats' ticket salesperson yesterday...so...who knows what they're thinking.")
• Twitter / 'Duk (Yahoo!Sports.com Big League Stew) : Nationals googling potential ticket buyers.
Nationals googling potential ticket buyers to craft personalized sales pitches?
• Econ Tricks: The Washington Nationals Are Spying on Me - Greg Finley
"I just got a targeted phone pitch from the Washington Nationals season ticket office. So targeted, in fact, that it reminded me of the recent Onion headline "Google Responds To Privacy Concerns With Unsettlingly Specific Apology."
• Nationals Journal - Why the timing of Strasburg's MLB debut is so important - Dave Sheinin.
"The only question that really matters with the Nationals right now (and the one I've heard everywhere I've been this spring) is this: When will Stephen Strasburg be in the majors? I'm not going to be able to answer that..."
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I wrote about Guzman today too.
forgive me pimping myself.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 3:11 PM EDT reply actions
Dern spammers...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 18, 2010 3:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
By the way, I'm still upset about Dukes even after reading Zuckerman's good article.
Perhaps, I’m more sad for Dukes than anything.
I still wish him success and wish him well on a personal level.
As for Nats’ RF this year? Not looking good so far.
if Maxwell doesn't stepup, RF will be a hole for the Nats all season
Maxwell’s the only one of the bunch that could contribute as an everyday player.
Harris, for all his defensive worth, is a utility player.
Morse has success as a pinch-hitter but wouldbe exposed if he got regualr at bats and wasn’t looking for the first good fastball he could drive.
Duncan has some power skills, but is not good defensively and quite honestly may not be able to duplicate his good numbers from 2006 ever again.
Bernadina. Can’t. Hit.
It insults me that they say they are happy with the in-house options. because, as I said yeesterday too many times to count, they are all inferior players to Dukes.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
One of my big problems...
With dumping Dukes is that you’re replacing him with 25-6-8-year-olds who have produced less at the major league level than Dukes…but if they have sunny dispositions….
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 18, 2010 4:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
not only is the team not better, it just got older too. wrong direction on both counts.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
All the projection systems had Dukes worth about
2 WAR at best this season. He had negative value last season. If JMAX’s glove is as good this season as it has been when he has played previous seasons, that alone is worth 2 WAR over 150 games. He has walked nearly 10% of his major league at bats thus far. Those walks, with the speed, and defense, and JMAX has a good shot to give us as much as Dukes or more this season in terms of WAR. Plus, Harris is considered by a fairly strong minority of SABR guys to be one of the most underrated guys in the game who deserves a shot at starting.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Elijah dukes is 25 years old
I may tattoo this to my forehead before all is said and done. I won’t repeat the stats which prove his potential, as I have done that at least 5 times now. But it seems to me you dont know just how small 129 PA is. It’s not a small sample, it is infinitesimal. If you are trying to extrapolate numbers based on that small of a sample you are bound to be mislead.
Willie harris is a 32 year old guy with 2000+ plate appearences who slugs 350 for his career. Please point me in the direction of these SABR guys, so that I might have a puff of what they are smoking.
dont forget
that that small sample size applies to his fielding too. It may be that he just had an easy time of it with the balls that have come to him thus far. He may not be as good with the glove as he seems to be.
I think you cherry pick too much
Using last year’s defensive statistics for Maxwell is deceiving at best and dishonest at worst. He only had 21 starts in the field last year, and UZRs are notoriously unstable with such small sample sizes. I could just as well bring up his horrific UZR/150 from 2007, but that would only serve to prove the point that UZRs (which feed WARs) are not very good predictors.
Also, to completely contradict your first point, BP’s Pecota had projected a 2.4 WARP for Dukes.
Meanwhile, as you should know, Harris has had several chances at being a regular, and each time he’s broken/worn down by August/September. He had a good September last year, but had only accrued 240 ABs in the first five months of the season. Harris’ lifetime September OPS is .665. I like Harris, but he’s a role player (and a good one at that). As a starter, no thanks.
Rob
"'CLIMATOLOGY' is just 'ACT GLOOMILY' spelled sideways..."
My brother the Braves fan still brings up Harris' second-half woes when he was in Atlanta...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 18, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Spring is fairly meaningless
For his career JMax has a .780 OPS vs lefthanders and .805 versus righthanders with a tiny sample space, but nonetheless those are very solid numbers when you are a plus 22 UZR/150 outfielder career wise in CF/RF.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6827&position=OF
Over a full season the glove alone is worth 2 wins above replacement if it continues at that pace which is what most people had Dukes being in total.
I say not to worry about his bat. He will bat 6-8th in the lineup, bench against tougher right handers (to let Harris play), walk around 8-10% of the time which is a lot, have 25-30 base steal potential, and put up gold glove defense. That will be very good in total as long as he posts an OPS around .750 – .780 which is very doable for JMAX.
Think the next coming of Randy Winn in his prime and you got JMAX.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
if Maxwell sniffs Randy Winn or Mike Cameron...
the Nats win huge. I just don’t think he gets there.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
they aren't solid
they are irrelevant. 129 PA is not even worth looking at.
8% is not walking a lot, 10% isn’t either, though it is pretty good.
Tiny sample sizes
I don’t see how you claim with a straight face that Maxwell’s “career UZR in CF/RF” is a measure of anything, considering he’s only played in 39 games in his entire career at CF/RF. Of course, the mere fact that you see fit to add in the RF numbers (he has a grand total of 2 appearances at that position — I repeat 2 appearances at that position) where he has a completely meaningless 22.6 UZR/150, and you chose to ignore his LF numbers (where he has 3 appearances) and an equally meaningless -24.1 UZR/150, tells me you aren’t REALLY thinking critically about Maxwell, you are only searching out for numbers which seem to back up your preconceptions about him.
I don’t want to sound harsh, I just find your analysis on this subject be a bit shallow. Maxwell may be fantastic. He most likely will not be. His PECOTA projection has him picking up ~340 ABs and posting a .9 WARP this year.
Rob
"'CLIMATOLOGY' is just 'ACT GLOOMILY' spelled sideways..."
Please to faithfully reply
We are related by cousins in distant lands. We should make friends and correspond…
whoops. wrong address :-)
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Dukes
Considering the team actually received compensation for Lastings Milledge, it’s puzzling they couldn’t get anything for Dukes. Did Washington attempt to get anything in return at all?
I can’t say I’m all that upset that Dukes is gone, just confused.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 18, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions
Rizzo said they offered him around the league and found no takers...
Which i believe. Why would anyone trade for someone they could have for nothing in return once he’s released…and I’m guessing moat GM’s know what’s up when Dukes is offered around the league…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 18, 2010 5:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
agreed.
any GM Rizzo might have approached knew what he was up to. not shocking he couldn’t find a dance partner for Dukes.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 18, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Milledge has nothing to do with Dukes, despite the media’s vested interest in the persistence of the “Lastings’ character issues” meme. Milledge has no place in a discussion about Dukes.
considering
Dukes was about as useless as Milledge was on the field, I don’t see why not.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 18, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
At the risk of causing Ed to have apoplexy...
Not having much luck with the links or my computer skills...
if interested, head over the Bleed Cubbie Blue and look for fanshot/fanposts titled…
“Dukes and the Cubs” and “The final work on the Elijah Dukes Situation”.
Sorry about messing the links and posts…
"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain

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