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Washington Nationals: "Power Alley's" Everett And Duquette On Elijah Dukes; The Nationals' RF Situation...

I knew that Jim Duquette and Seth Everett of Sirius/XM's Power Alley had been broadcasting live from Space Coast Stadium, the Washington Nationals' Spring home, all day on Monday, so when I saw a retweeted message from Mr. Duquette, the former Mets and Orioles' executive, which quoted a generic, "Nats player in clubhouse today," who said, "...a cloud was lifted in here after [DC GM Mike] Rizzo released [Elijah] Dukes," I went searching through the recording of the three hour program I'd made to see if Mr. Duquette had expanded on what the anonymous Nationals' player said about Elijah Dukes, the 25-year-old outfielder the Nationals released last week, and it ended being part of a discussion of Washington's right field situation since Dukes' departure:

Seth Everett: Willie Harris is projected as the right fielder now that Elijah Dukes is no longer there, is Harris a band aid or is that someone they think they can build around? Does that mean he's going to play the position on a regular basis? I know Justin Maxwell's there, there's also talk about Willie Harris playing second base with Mike Morse, all kinds of options for the Nationals, what about Willie Harris and whether or not he can become an everyday player?

Jim Duquette: No, I don't see him being an everyday player, he's a solid guy that you can get at bats in a couple different positions, but if he's your starting right fielder and he plays 140 games then that's not a good sign and you're not going to be winning a lot of games in that way. So I think he's the short-term solution after they released Dukes...The one thing that I'll say, a couple players, off the record of course, they weren't willing to say it on the record, but off the record said when Dukes was released, 'Hey listen, there's a little bit of a cloud lifted when he was released,' and again, I've been in that situation, Mike Rizzo did a nice job, it's not an easy call, and the manager a lot of times says, 'I can manage this guy, I can manage this personnel don't worry about it..."

Star-divide

Seth Everett: "Right, because you're being evaluated at the same time..."

Jim Duquette: "Sure, sure, but I think Mike Rizzo did the right thing. Whether he would say it publically or not, Elijah Dukes has been an issue, been a problem in the clubhouse, he's just not a happy guy, not a guy that you want to have around your team on a long-term basis, even for this season, so you send a message, number one. Number two, you cleared up a huge potential headache for your manager in a clubhouse with the young players, you don't want him rubbing off on any of your young players, so, I'd take Willie Harris in right field every day if it meant getting rid of a problem in the clubhouse. Any day, and to me it was the old, 'addition by subtraction', Seth. You know, Frank Cashen used to say that to me when I was coming up as an executive, many times, you can improve your ballclub by getting rid of a player, and I think that's what the Nats did there."

Seth Everett: "How much control do you think Riggleman has on this ballclub as opposed to when he first took over for Manny Acta? He has the 'interim' tag off of him and it seems like Riggleman's part of what they're trying to build here in Washington?"

Jim Duquette: "Well yeah, and you know what, he said that a little bit there as well, when we were talking at the break, his involvement in this ballclub, he certainly has a good relationship with Mike Rizzo, but in terms of his involvement in the development of young players, which again is going to be important, he's got the right mentality, he's similar in that regard to Dave Tremblay with the Orioles, except he has more experience than Dave did when he came up as a manager. He has the patience to handle young players and young pitchers and he has the development background, and that's very helpful when you're introducing young player after young player as a GM, you like to feel comfortable that you can call a guy up if you think he's ready and not have the manager just bury him at the major league level, where he's going to struggle and you end up having to send him down and the move looks bad."

• RF In DC?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote on Sunday, in a blog post entitled, "Harris to be Opening Day starter; Bernie in outfield mix", that the Nats' Skipper Jim Riggleman had said, "...if the regular season started Sunday, Willie Harris would be the Opening Day right fielder against the Phillies," though, Mr. Ladson continued later in the article:

"Just because Harris is the Opening Day right fielder, does not mean he will be play that position on a regular basis.

"The club is already talking about a platoon between Harris and Justin Maxwell. If that doesn't work, the second option is platooning Harris with Mike Morse."

Or...possibly Roger Bernadina, or as Mr. Ladson speculated, "Don't rule out general manager Mike Rizzo trying to acquire a right fielder. Jermaine Dye is still a free agent." Monday, Mr. Ladson added outfielder Willy Taveras' name to the potential right fielders Mr. Riggleman has to choose from, writing, in another post on the RF situation entitled, "Nats' Taveras in mix to platoon with Harris", that, "The numbers indicate [Taveras] is in the lead to platoon with Harris because Justin Maxwell and Mike Morse have slumped badly."

MASNSports.com's Byron Kerr wrote Monday, in an article entitled, "No more waiting for Maxwell and Desmond", that he thinks, "It's looking more and more possible that Justin Maxwell and Ian Desmond will make the team this year out of spring training," and Mr. Kerr pencils Maxwell in in right field alongside Nyjer Morgan in center and Josh Willingham in left as the projected twenty-ten outfield, in spite of the fact that the 26-year-old Maxwell has hit in just 4 of 39 at bats this Spring, with a .250 OBP and a .205 SLG in 14 games, following-up on a 2009 season which saw Maxwell hit just .242 with a .344 OBP and a .396 SLG in 111 games for Triple-A Syracuse over which he collected 10 doubles, 13 HR's, 42 RBI's and 35 stolen bases, before getting called up to Washington and hitting 4 doubles and 4 HR's in 40 games with the Nationals.  

Mr. Kerr points to one at bat in particular, however, as an example of how, when tested, he believes Maxwell might rise to the occasion, citing the then-25-year-old outfielder's, "...battle with Francisco Rodriguez and the Mets at the end of last year,":

"He had a double-digit pitch at-bat that would have made Dave Winfield proud. He never relented. He never backed down. He waited for Rodriguez to finally give him a pitch he could really drive..."

...and drove it over the fence for a game-winning grand slam, which Mr. Kerr notes, was the, "...the first time in 2009 the Nats had come back when trailing after 8 innings." Mr. Kerr's plan? Since the Nationals got rid of Dukes, put Maxwell in right field. Since Washington's unsure about Cristian Guzman's shoulder, and since, let's be honest, they have been unsure about Guzman himself since last season, discussing a move to second at one point last Fall, give the shortstop job to Ian Desmond, who once again has folks concerned about his defense after a few errors in the last couple game, but hit so well at Triple-A Syracuse last season and has continued to perform so well at the plate this Spring that it would seem he has little else to prove at the minor league level.

Time to sink or swim. It's one thing to send unproven commodities (at the pro level at least) like 21-year-old Stephen Strasburg or 22-year-old Drew Storen down for more work before they make their MLB debuts, but for players like Maxwell, who at 26-years-of-age is pushing at the boundaries of what's encompassed in the term follows "prospect", Roger Bernadina, who's going to turn 26 in June, and Mike Morse, who turned 28 yesterday with just 139 major league games under his belt, it's got to be time to find out whether or not they can produce in Washington, and whether or not they're going to be part of the competitive teams the Nats' brass plans on fielding within the next few seasons. But, just as importantly, as Mr. Kerr notes:

"Keeping Maxwell and Desmond with the big club allows guys like Mike Daniel and Danny Espinosa a chance to move up and get Triple-A experience on a full time basis."

Time to see what the players atop the Nationals' system's depth chart can do, or if they've missed their chance to make an impact and need to step aside. 

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Yes, the Nationals have "choices"

But none of those choices are particularly palatable. I don’t mind them dumping Dukes like that nearly as much as I mind them doing it with no real plan for his position.

BTW, in the hierarchy of life, spammers fit somewhere between mudslugs and dung beetles. With all due apologies to dung beetles.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 9:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Mike MacDougal cut by the Marlins

Nothing against Dougie, I just didn’t want to see him play for the Fish.

Will he land on his feet?

Why not us? Why not now?

by Expos4 on Mar 23, 2010 10:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Maybe the Nats can get him again....

Bruney, MacD and Capps at the backend…MacDougal will come cheap now…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 10:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Bad idea

Clippard/Bruney/Capps is the proper back end, until Storen comes up.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought the "he'll be cheap" part would make it clearly sarcastic...

Rather have Storen there….

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's early in the day still

Sarcasm flows right over my head.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, RBS, I should know by now that sarcasm doesn't work in print...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 12:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Boy, this isn't good for Dukes...

You got to get rid of the bad mojo. Maxwell doesn’t make this pill go down nicely though… and for TAWH will heck we all love him, but full-time RF…..before Tavares made the error yesterday I was thinking he was the real choice…we’ll see. Thx for the info Ed…

by Berndaddy on Mar 23, 2010 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Didn't like hearing it....

And from a waste of talent perspective I’m still not thrilled with dumping Dukes, but I thought the little bit of context made it easier to understand for me and those of you I know liked Dukes.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 12:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

+1

As FoDaD #3, I’m sad that Dukes’ talent didn’t win out, and that clubhouse “intensity” may have crossed the line into “creepy” or whatever the appropriate euphemistic translation of “distracting” is. I suppose I’ll have to move to being sad about J-Max being a slack-[butt] at earning his RF spot.

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 23, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

"[slack] butt"...heeeeheee

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 1:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Confirms what I suspected about Dukes

… that it wasn’t a particular incident but a lingering cloud over the entire team, not just the clubhouse. His presence might have even convinced some veteran free-agents not to sign here (Teixeira possibly?). So it is indeed addition by subtraction.

Yes, it would have been nice to have a better back-up plan but again, Dukes was unlikely to play the entire season anyway because of his history of injuries. The Nats were going to field a platoon in RF no matter what, unless Dukes miraculously found the ability to stay healthy for an entire season.

Willie Harris should be OK for a little while. The Nats are going to have some issues with their starting rotation early on so now is as good a time as any to deal with some uncertainty in RF. If WH struggles badly, then the team can start up a platoon with one of the younger guys (Maxwell, Bernadina). They can also sign a B-level free agent at some point. I guess there aren’t any star players available but maybe they can trade for a serviceable veteran without giving up too much in return. I heard that Austin Kearns is hitting .300 this spring. runs away after saying that LOL

-------------------------------------------------
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!

by Potomac Fan on Mar 23, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kearns hit 300 last spring

Never forget! He then batted 100-something

"I love, love, love John Lackey." -- Graysnail.

by Mezza on Mar 23, 2010 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Just kidding

I know Kearns would do the same thing if he were in D.C., bat .350 in the spring and then hit .220 once the games counted.

-------------------------------------------------
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!

by Potomac Fan on Mar 25, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

What would be a long term solution in RF?

I think Harris is perfect for this year. I want to see Maxwell, Bernadina and Morse too but I’m not going to assume any of them will turn out to be above average regular. So then where will the team get a RF of the future? Jayson Werth and or Carl Crawford? Norris? Burgess?

None of those sounds good/realistic to me.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 11:18 AM EDT reply actions  

more realistic

A trade or the RZO picks a college OF early in the draft. I’m hoping the local boy Parker in the 2nd round.

Both corner OF spots are open long term since Willingham only has two years left and could be traded.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

You know who I have my eye on since we've discussed this...

I’d like to pry Jordan Schafer from the Braves for one of the outfield spots…think he’s injured now though…The Yanks have been waiting on Crawford btw. All NY sports radio has talked about for a year now…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 1:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm with you

He can play great defense and draw a walk. It sounds like people are unsure about his ability to make contact and translate his raw power into games. – Baseball America

I’d move Dunn or Willingham for this kid in a minute. Hopefully Dunn even if we have to pick up his whole salary and send JD Martin/Collin Balester

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

How can Harris possibly be considered "perfect"?

The guy’s a slap hitting bench player. He’ll wilt in July if he plays nearly every day. The Nats need production from that spot.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have to agree, love Harris as a 4th OFer...

Not an everyday starter, though the fact that I agree with Duquette bothers me…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 1:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yep.

TAWH does seem to improve in terms of offensive production with something approaching a full season of PA, but he still seems to fade at the end with an actual full season of PA. Just like our rotation was clogged with potential #5 starters, our bench is clogged with potential 4th OFers…

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 23, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

He plays great defense

He is a above average defender in center and should be great at a corner. It makes up for his poor bat and will really help our staff. Imagine Willie and Plush out there together.
It also leaves tim for the prospects.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't get me wrong--nothing but respect for TAWH's defense

…why do you think we call him The Amazing Willie Harris? Man, I still remember that awesome game-robbing diving catch against the Mets in 2008. Good times. With him and Plush in the OF, Willingham will basically just have to guard the line in LF—heh, we should see if Hammer’s defense stats improve this season from having to cover less of the field!

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 23, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Play The Prospects

This is already going to be a season that the Nats will only win approximately 75 games (at best). Why waste this season. Maxwell, Bernadina, Desmond, Stammen, Martin, etc, will never prove exactly what they have (at this level) until they have been given the full-time opportunity to do it. I also like the comment that, by having these guys at this level, clears space at the AAA level for others to move up and begin proving their worth. Seriously…will Stammen, Martin, Mock, etc, fare any worse than Hernandez or Bautista? Desmond, Maxwell and Bernadina any worse than Guzman, Harris and Tavares? The only concern I have with this line of thinking, are the errors that have been committed by Desmond….Heck, Dunn will already have his hands full with some of those wild Zimmy throws!

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm dreading the fact that Dunn might be as bad at first as I fear...

Hope he took getting better defensively seriously this winter and Spring…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Mar 23, 2010 1:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I Lack Faith In A Bunch Of Things, However...

I do have faith that Dunn will be acceptable at 1B. Having watched him in person at Nats Park, and every away game on Television (and even a couple of those in person), I think Adam gets a bad rap. I totally get the OF argument….I cringed everytime a ball was hit towards him in the OF. However, his post Johnson stay at 1B last year was promising…IMO. Heck, Johnson had some mistakes at 1B that left me scratching my head in disbelief. I am definitely in that “Pro-Adam” group that is hoping for an extension in the near future.

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

NJ was puzzlingly stone-handed at 1B last year...

…and according to the “geek-stats” he was much better on defense at 1B than the OF—though well below his (already low) career average even there. I’m still hoping we can somehow sell him to the Yankees or the Sox during the stretch for ALL TEH MONIEZ.

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 23, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunn was by every defensive measure the worst 1B

in baseball by a huge margin last season. He has the least range and made 7 errors in under 600 innings. He has played over 1431 firstbase innings in his career (194 games) and he is 31 years old (an age that many players see their defense decline and almost no one improves). It is very highly unlikely he will get better. sorry but I wish I was wrong!

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Mar 23, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only key element I don't see in all the matrix(s)? is...

… the fact that Dunn has never played 1b for an extended period. You’d think that with extensive play he’ll tighten up even a little bit. I’m stretching, but hey you gotta hope for something some times.

by Berndaddy on Mar 23, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’re probably right but at least this season, he knew he was going to be playing 1B. I think Dunn’s the type of guy who probably practiced a lot in the offseason to prepare as well as he can. If it was easy, we’d all be major league ballplayers. I think he’ll be better at 1B than he was last year, but still not out of the bottom 3rd on defense.

by RoscoeNats on Mar 23, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

He is going to be terrible at 1st

It’s delusional to think otherwise. He has been awful for his career. He has been awful in the OF over a huge sample and terrible at 1st in more than a full season. The guy is just too large to get to the ground balls. He is also getting older. Defenders peak earlier than hitters.

Get Dunn out and then replace him with a decent defender or a cheap and solid FA. Russ Branyan for 2M. Ryan Garko for 600K. If we want a big bopper at first let’s wait for two years when we are close to a run and Prince Fielder + Adrian Gonzalez + Ryan Howard + Pujols are available

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, this is reality and not fantasy land.

Dunn’s not going anywhere, so you can complain about it for about 170 more games or just hope he gets to 40 home runs this year and we’ll hope he creates more runs than he allows.

by RoscoeNats on Mar 24, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

DINGERZ!!

We reached the ‘acceptance’ stage of Dunn’s defense long ago. Now we learn to celebrate the small things, like… when he catches something.

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 24, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree but the team went out and got old so they will play

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Mar 23, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

2 things

1. Dunn is as bad as you fear Ed. Part of it is that he is just too tall. He may be trying but it’s not going to happen. AL please. Let’s get a good defender with all our ground balls. Or a cheap dime a dozen decent 1B.

2.Playing the prospects is the right move. Willie Harris signals that in the OF. Maxwell, Bernadina and Morse will get time. I still say Harris is better than you all think. But let’s not clamor for Dye who will cost money and take away ABs.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

+1 on -Dye

As I recall, he’s one of the few outfielders who challenges Dunn in terms of defensive awfulness. (Just checked fangraphs… both have lifetime OF UZR/150s around -15… DO NOT WANT!)

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 23, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Count Me In As Well....

not because of Fangraphs (not a fan of Geek-Stats) but I don’t see him being any better (overall) than Maxwell/Bernadina.

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys really undervalue Harris

Just because Bowden did not think of him as a starter does not mean he is not good enough to start. TAWH was worth more WINs vs Replacement player than Dunn was worth last season and he only got 300 some odds at bats. The year prior to that he was a 3.3 Win player which again is higher than DUNN has ever been and better than any current Nat not named ZIm. Harris is more than capable of doing that again! By every measure I can find online, he has a plus glove in any corner outfield position, and a PLUS BAT against righthanded pitching. Frankly, based on career stats and age, against right handers, no-one on this team would make a better lead off hitter than Harris. Not even Morgan!

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Mar 23, 2010 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

remember Bowden never thought Church could start

and he has every season since he left the Nats for mostly playoff teams. Church is a plus defender with a plus bat vs righthanders just like TAWH.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Mar 23, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Will TAWH hold up?

That’s the million dollar question…we all love this guys game and heart but that what I worry about him.

by Berndaddy on Mar 23, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

I just looked at BP’s player cards for Harris and Dunn, and they not only disagree with you, they disagree STRONGLY with you. Harris’ best WARP year was two years ago, when he posted a 2.1. His total value is in his defense: only twice in his entire career has Willie posted over a win in batting contribution, last year’s 16 runs and the previous year’s 13. The last and only time Dunn has ever been that low that was in 2003, typically he’s good for 40-50 runs above replacement every year. When one adds in (subtracts out?) defense, Dunn still has posted a WARPs greater than Harris. EVERY SINGLE YEAR he has bested Harris, even Willie’s best year of 2008 — which turned out to be one of Dunn’s worst at 2.2.

Dunn posted a -2 fielding runs above replacement at first in 67 games, over a third of a season. That projects out to 5 runs lost due to his defense, compared with the 40 runs they gain with his big stick.

I don’t see how anyone can look at these numbers and conclude anything other than (1) you are overvaluing Willie Harris, and (2) you are seriously undervaluing Adam Dunn.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fangraphs>Baseball Prospectus

By a mile. Don’t be fooled by the fact that you need to pay for BP’s player projections.

Just take a look at the 2010 chone projections. Harris projects as just above 2 wins per 150 games. A nice value for 1.5M

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

In your opinion

Prove to me that Fangraphs has better predictions then I might accept that. Prove to me that their formulas for WARs are better estimators than than BP’s WARPs and I’ll be really impressed — I don’t think you can.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here we go

1. WARP vs WAR. It’s something like WARP3 because it’s their third version and it’s still much worse than WAR. This is accepted by just about everyone but BP. See hardball times, tango, and the current BP writers before they worked at BP

2. Here you can see how the 2009 PECOTA hitting projections were the worst of the projection systems. 8th place out of 8. Chone does the best here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_marcels_takes_on_the_field/

3. Here you can see how the 2009 PECOTA projections were significantly worse than 5 free systems. ZIPS and CHONE are very available and free.
http:///ee/index.php/site/comments/pitching_forecasts_2009_head_to_head/

More discussion:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evaluating_the_2009_forecasts_chone_zips_fantastics_win/

The 2010 projections have been revised how many times?

Stick with the free guys like fangraphs, chone, zips, tango and you will be fine.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Love It.....

When Geek Stats can’t even agree with one another! It is just like the science vs religion arguments! LOL Truth is, you can make stats say just about anything you want! I would rather place my trust in the fantastic front office that has been assembled any day of the week, than by what I can interpret from either of the Geek-Stat services. Truth is, very few folks would agree that Willie Harris is valued higher than Adam Dunn. And the arguments about Dunn at 1B? Lets give the guy a full season at 1B to prove his worth….he has never had it. How many of you Geek-Stat lovers have actually attended and watched him, in person, at Nats Park, and not relied solely in something you are attempting to interpret stat-wise? Do you even go to the park? What you write here, is not what I saw there….sorry. The danger with giving him a full season at 1B, however, is that IF he proves to be decent defensively at that position, his value will sky-rocket, and if he is not already tied into a contract extension with the Nats, we will surely lose him. Losing him would then prompt all the Geek-Stat lovers to accuse the Learners of being “cheap” and unable to retain top talent. Sorry guys…..In “Stan” I trust (Kasten that is)….not Fangraphs.

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I go

I’ll be at 81 regular season games at Nats Park. And the Boston exhibition game. And I’ll probably make a game or two when they play in Baltimore.

As far as the disagreement among geek-stats, this is why I argued here a month ago that the problem with UZR at first base is that it completely ignores the fielding of thrown balls. And since a first baseman handles several times more of those than he does batted balls, this made little sense to me. But some people like to use UZR as “THE FINAL WORD” when it comes to evaluating defense.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually....

Even though I am not a huge fan of Stats, the ones that you have used here, and on Nationals.com, have always intrigued me….even those when we have disagreed. Out of all of the comments that are pasted on our sites, yours usually seem the most logical and make the most sense….even when you and I disagreed on Taveras! LOL

What is your section at the park? Mine is 204, and I surely plan to use some of those "Points’ this year to get a free ticket or two in the Diamond Club. I was impressed with the way the Nats upgraded their ticket delivery this season….normally, the tickets are sent in a cheap envelop, but this year they sent them out in the nice decorative box. Kudos to them at least trying to make us feel special!

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks

I can be found in and around section 219, or, if the Nats are losing bad, near the bar there. For my liver’s sake, I hope the team wins a lot more this year. ;-)

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Club Level....Cool

219 is a great section. Since I have two sets of season tickets (me AND my wife) the club level was a little pricey! But I really enjoy Section 204…..out of the sun and rain, and not very crowded there….even with sell outs. Plus, a great view of the scoreboard.

by sullyzz on Mar 24, 2010 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK

After revising their calculations properly, PECOTA is nearly indistinguishable from SN, Fantistics, Marcel, and Steamer in Root Mean Squared Error; CHONE did better in 2009 than these guys, but the differences are marginal. Interesting to note that only CHONE and ZiPs were apparently significantly better than random in predicting 2009 OPS, and this significance was pretty low.

In any case, it’s useful to look at several different numbers when examining projections. Too often, arguments are made along the lines of “Player X is [good/bad] because his [insert favorite metriic] is [only] yyy.” Attempting to boil down performance to one measure is shaky at best and can (and will) lead to unfounded conclusions. So when I respond “well, [another metric] says this player is completely different from what you just said”, all I’m really saying is that neither WAR, nor WARP, nor VORP, nor any other single number one can come up with will completely and 100%-accurately define the player.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 23, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

After revising their calculations properly, PECOTA is nearly indistinguishable from SN, Fantistics, Marcel, and Steamer in Root Mean Squared Error; CHONE did better in 2009 than these guys, but the differences are marginal. Interesting to note that only CHONE and ZiPs were apparently significantly better than random in predicting 2009 OPS, and this significance was pretty low.

Just to quibble, those were comparisons to Marcel, not to random. Marcel’s hard to beat because Marcel does the biggest chunk of the projection process well. If the projection systems could barely beat random projections, I think everyone would give up – I know I would!

--
Dan Szymborski
BBTF
Dan on ESPN Insider

by D.Szymborski on Mar 23, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was referring to the regression calculation

Which suggested that the only two significant variables in estimating OPS were the CHONE’s and ZiPs estimates, with the regression coefficients relatively small, and the resulting regression equation had a .45-ish R2, which is not amazing.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 24, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

If we cut him tomorrow, would “anyone” pick him up? I am sure someone would, in a reserve bench role; nothing more. Don’t get me wrong….I even like the guy! But Harris is certainly not undervalued, and a .250 hitter (at best) is not a good lead-off guy. And your claim about his ability to kill right handed pitching? His average against Righties is not any better than his overall career average.

by sullyzz on Mar 23, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

A bunch of issue jumbled together

1. It’s hard to summarize a player’s value. I think WAR is the best method and it’s pretty well accepted online that its superior to anything at BP like WARP3. Really these players are people and not just numbers

2. Zips and Chone are really great systems and they are totally free. They are better than Pecota which you can buy from BP. They are much better than random.

3. I haven’t been to Nationals park in two years but I do watch many of the games online. Dunn stinks defensively. He is too big. Some people (Keith Law and not MGL) think UZR is messed up with first baseman. Fine. I’ll side with MGL. But either way Dunn is still terrible there.

4. Willie Harris is an average big leaguer, 2WAR/150G, when you properly consider defense.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 23, 2010 10:46 PM EDT reply actions  

It's also pretty well accepted online...

…that Obama was born in Kenya. Or Indonesia. Or something. Whatever, that’s not much of an argument.

As best as I can tell, the only major quibble between the systems is what is the definition of “replacement level” player. Otherwise, they both have essentially the same rankings, though on some occasions they will disagree. If you want to claim one is better, you’d have to demonstrate that one is a better estimator of actual wins. This sort of discussion has gone back years and years… e.g. is linear weights better than RC? The answer is never pat, because there’s lots of reasonable ways to answer the question, and the answers are not always the same.

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 24, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

RobBob....

Bottom Line is this…..you get a much better view of Dunn’s capabilities from your great seats in Nats Park, than someone watching on the internet. Great job with your stats, but I trust your opinions more for what you have seen in person. You and I may be proven wrong by the end of the year, but I think Dunn does very well this season.

by sullyzz on Mar 24, 2010 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Better but not more accurate

I agree that Nats park provides the best view of Adam Dunn. I do not believe that your or anyones assessment of his defense will be more accurate than UZR. It’s not a question that we can really resolve but I will maintain that UZR has a more accurate measure of a player’s defensive ability than any fan watching from the stands. I will agree that watching from the stands is more fun and worthwhile than looking up UZR. But if we are arguing over the defensive ability of a player I’m going to go with UZR, a complex objective defensive system, rather than one persons eye.

Others will certainly disagree which is fine. I just hope those people aren’t the ones handing out contracts for the Nationals.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 24, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I Seriously Doubt....

That the Nationals Front Office, or any front office in baseball, is using Fangraphs to determine contracts….well, maybe Bowden was.

by sullyzz on Mar 24, 2010 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Rizzo mentioned Nyjer's UZR in a discussion of that trade...

…and sabremetrics are all over baseball these days. The stats can’t tell you everything, but they can provide a nice reality check on “your own lying eyes” (as Groucho put it…) and try to moderate the deal-by-wish-fulfillment that still exists in baseball (believe me, Bowden’s deals were not mathematically valid—I did the math).

BOWDEN!!

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 24, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

MLB front offices may not be using fangraphs....

…because they’re almost certainly paying someone to do the same sorts of calculations.

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 24, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW....

I see you are currently living overseas….Military? Also, please do not take my comments about being “in person” as a knock against those who cannot attend home games; although, I do sometimes knock those who “can” but “won’t” attend out of spite. If you are military, thank you for your dedicated service.

by sullyzz on Mar 24, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not Military

Work and really the wife’s work. I have hopes we’ll be back in the next few years. I’m also pretty sure I’ll make it out for one series this year and hopefully see Strasburg pitch. Certainly I’d be at the games if I was nearby.

There are a lot of great Nats fans in the military. The organic Nationals / Military connection seems to be one of the few recent positives.

As a Nats fan I see lots of good things to come. I think attendance will follow. I have visions of a real baseball fanbase in DC. This seems to be the start.

by HobbsNY9 on Mar 24, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

One of the best parts of every game...

…is the recognition of visiting servicemen/women down in the diamond club during the 3rd—even if the ones not in uniform are wearing the visiting team’s gear half the time…

"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3

by Doghouse on Mar 24, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

RobBobS

is by far my new favorite contributor here.

He fights all the battles I used to fight, only he does it better than I do…

by martins on Mar 24, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

That's nice, thanks

Did the ‘discussions’ end up just wearing you down? I hope not!

Rob

"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey

by RobBobS on Mar 24, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

heh, kinda

consider me the ghost of christmas future :)

by martins on Mar 24, 2010 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

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