Nationals News: MacDougal is Back Edition!
Although the spring is almost over, Mike Rizzo is still making moves, bringing back Mike MacDougal after he was released by the Marlins this spring. I'm very glad to see that he isn't becoming complacent, and this seems to be a fairly low-risk signing.
Nationals News
The Nats have told Adam Dunn that he won't get a contract extension, no matter his offensive numbers, if he doesn't learn to play first base.
Livan Hernandez, pitching to the tune of a 2.25 ERA this spring, is likely to make the club when the rotation is finalized this weekend. The 35-year-old Hernandez picked up raquetball in the offseason, and was in shape at the start of camp because of it.
Chien-Ming Wang was scheduled for a bullpen session on Wednesday, but was unable to throw because of a sore shoulder. It isn't considered serious.
More news, and a funny Milton Bradley quote, after the jump...
Starting in an intrasquad minors game, Stephen Strasburg pitched 4 1/3 innings, struck out nine, gave up one hit and had zero earned runs.
Mike Rizzo may pitch Stephen Strasburg in the April 3 exhibition with the Red Sox. I think that's a very good idea.
Tony Paul says Stephen Strasburg is likely ready to pitch in the majors right now.
Non-Nationals News
"If I was a musician, I'd be Kanye West." - Milton Bradley
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That's a Taveras action pic of him getting tossed...
(ed. note – “Thanks to whoever took care of the unwanted commenters this morning,”)
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 10:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No worries
They annoy me
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by natsstats on Mar 25, 2010 10:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good Dunn News
There is no reason to extend him. Especially before watching him play first for a couple months.
Ed, I know you like the prospect rumors so what about Dunn to Boston for Anthony Rizzo or Josh Reddick? Nationals would have to pick up Dunn’s full salary and first Ortiz will have to falter. I bet the Sox could offer Dunn arbitration after the season and gamble on draft picks or an expensive 1-year deal.
Yes, I know you *really* want to get rid of Dunn
But you have yet to describe what the Nats are going to do to fill the hole in the lineup. 40 HR, .900 OPS, 100 BB, these are numbers that aren’t going to come this way. The only 1bs out there worthy of comparison with Dunn offensively are Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez, Cabrera, and Howard. None of those guys are going to be cheap or easy to acquire. Without someone like that in the middle of the order, the Nats will finish well into the bottom half of the league in runs scored, which could very well mean another 100-loss season.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
I really dont think people realize the caliber of numbers he puts up
you really want to deal that guy for ONE prospect. You’ve gotta be kidding.
totally agree
what kind of year do you think Zimmerman has without Dunn behind him?
by JefferyWGardner on Mar 25, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
A few responses
Yes I really want to get rid of Dunn
Rob: Why do we need to fill those numbers this year? I’m most interested in filling them in 2012-beyond. So let’s save money for a real stud at first like the guys who are free agents after 2011. Or trade for someone down the line. 1st base is the easiest position to fill. In the mean time I’d say sign someone like Russ Branyan who hit 31HR last year for 3M. Or sign Ryan Garko for 600K. There are lot of options. Dunn is not the guy we want there in 2012. No reason to pay him like it now.
Martins: What about his defensive numbers? Dunn can hit but he is just as horrible on defense. He would be a great player in the AL. But if he has to play the field he gives back a lot of that amazing offensive value. Like almost all of it.
The funny thing is that if the RZO called Theo with Dunn for Reddick or Anthony Rizzo I don’t think Theo would do it.
Jeff: I think Zimmerman’s year would have been the same. There are a lot of studies how there is no real effect on who hits behind who in terms of production. Zim can slide down to the 4th spot and be even more valuable with the bat.
Forgot the biggest reason
Lannan, Strasburg, Marquis, Wang
Are all extreme groundball pitchers. Infield defense is magnified. Dunn will look extra bad. If they add in a cheap good defensive 1st baseman he will look extra good. Another reason to go look for a 1st baseman elsewhere.
a cheap first basemen?
why would you give away a guy like dunn? That would be the worst trade in history… you dont just give away a guy who hits on the level of some of the vest in the game
Why this year?
Because I’m going to have to sit and watch these guys every night. I’ve seen them lose 94 home games over the last two years. I don’t care to see them lose another 45 this year.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
unfortunately RBS
they don’t care. if they did, Strasburg and Storen would be on the opening day roster, and Livo and Willie Taveras would not be.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
valid point
the team may be better with Dunn this year. I think there is a chance he really hurts them even this year but he is more likely to help. You are right. But think about the long term future. I suspect you’ll be at the games in 2011,2012,2013. If Dunn is resigned those games will be worse.
And the difference this year may be from 65 wins to 75 wins. If the team is smart about they can be talking about 90 wins in 2012 and beyond. That’s worth waiting for
got news for you: they lost more than 100 with him in the lineup last season
and could be well on their way to that this year.
as a matter of fact, Dunn has never played on a winning team for a full season.
a middle of the order bat is something that’s available in almost every single free agent class, it’s the most replaceable part in the game.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
you really think they lost BECAUSE of adam dunn?
or was it John Lannon being the Ace for the majority of the season?
Dunn helps this team score runs….. take him out of the lineup… see how many they score.
Does he need to be a passable first basemen? Yea. But why bury him before that verdict is even in, it dosent make sense
i don't another 60 games to know Dunn is a horrible first baseman
he has slow feet. it was his problem in the OF and it is his problem at 1B. the verdict is in.
my bigger point is this: this team has a history of giving out reward contracts (Meathook, Belliard, Guzman, Kearns) that go on to cripple the team, and re-signing Dunn long-term will do the same. he is the type of player that doesn’t age well, and he is a completely one-dimensional player.
1B is the most easily replaceable position on the field. the Nats could easily find a one-year stopgap until the team is truly going to be competitive, and that won’t be until Stras, Zimm etc are closer to their prime than next season, which will be their first full season in the majors.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty surprised at this dave
You wont give the guy one full season to show if he can be a decent first basemen? why not?
The verdict is not in, it would be silly to assume so.
see below for my diatribe.
i’m not hating. i was all for the Dunn signing. but the team needs to get younger, and he ifhe can bring vaulable young talent, the Nats have to take advantage of that.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
If by "one dimensional" you mean he's a force offensively
Then you are correct.
As to whether he’s a “horrid” first baseman, the thing is that even “horrid” first basemen can’t do that much harm to the team. He’ll field at worst 90% of what an average first baseman would field. First basemen don’t usually get all that many ground balls to field. Even if he played every single defensive inning this year, that still would only translate into fewer than 200 batted balls that he should get to, which would mean he would at worst allow an additional 20 batted balls to become hits or errors. A generous translation turns this into an extra 10 runs, or one loss due to his defense. Considering he will add 40 – 45 runs, 4 – 4.5 wins, with his bat, he helps this team immensely.
Comparing him with Kearns, Young, and Guzman is almost insulting. Please look up “active career leaders in OPS” and you will find Adam Dunn’s near the top of the list. This is no player they can replace easily or cheaply.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
my argument isn't against Dunn, the player
it’s against this team giving a reward contract to a player that they will likely regret and is likely on the downslope of his career.
i have no problem acknowledging Dunn’s past. it’s his future we’re agruing about.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
and i wasn't comparing Dunn the player to Kearns, Young and Guzman the players
i was comparing the fact that the team gave all three aging players reward contracts that they lived to regret, and are on the verge of doing the same thing with Dunn.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The implication is there
You equated signing Dunn with signing Kearns. The problem is that Dunn has performed very well in his career, even recently. Kearns has never played up to that level. Neither had Young or Guzman.
Now, Dunn could begin to drop off in production sharply and soon . It’s happened before (Strawberry?). Or he could play on effectively for several more years. That’s happened too (Delgado?). If he looks like the first case, then I’ll be more than willing to see him off.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Young and Guzman were both all-stars before they signed their contracts
but that’s besides the point. i wasn’t comparing the players, but the reward contracts. sorry if I wasn’t clearer.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
givindg dunn away for unproven commodities
is not the way to go, if you are going to trade adam dunn you better be getting a pitcher that can actually help the staff
I always find it funny that
on a team where your ace is a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues, and you are paying cristian guzman 8 million dollars, people think adam dunn is our biggest problem.
I never hear this kind of hate flung at guzman, and he is one of the worst everyday players in baseball. It makes me think that the Dunn hate is a personal thing.
Nothing to say about Guzman
His contract is just sad. He is maybe worth 1M on the open market and is being paid 8M so I don’t think there is anything to talk about.
Dunn is a great hitter. I do truly believe this. It’s just that his defense is so bad he need to go to the AL. Once he is a DH he will be a valuable player again. If I’m the White Sox I’d pay him 2/22. If I’m the Nats and I have to keep him for two years I wouldn’t pay more than 7 a year
right, hes extremely valuable in the AL
and you want to give him away for one prospect…. make them pay what he’s worth
Prospects are valuable
And Dunn is being paid 12M.
One scenario is the Nats continue to pay that money and get a decent prospect back.
If the team that gets Dunn is paying the contract they will be paying about what he is worth. I don’t think they’ll trade very much in this case.
Even if the team pays Dunn’s contract I don’t think they’ll get a great guy back even if it is “just one prospect.” The projected future production (production – salary) on young guys like Josh Reddick or Anthony Rizzo is quite high.
but prospects are just prospect
and for every one that lives up to its promise there are 100 who dont… why give away a sure thing for a gamble?
because as a sure thing he isn't very valuable
to the Nationals and considering his contract.
You are also undervaluing these unproven players. Smart for a fan but not for the front office in rebuilding mode.
"smar for a fan but not for a front office in rebuilding mode"
100 percent disagree, but thats ok
i fling hate at Guzman all the time. it's on of the things i take most pleasure in.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
true, but i wasnt reffering to you
never seen you hate on dunn before
as I posted below:
i was in favor of the original Dunn signing on the caveat that Rizzzo would do the right thing and trad ehim at this year’s deadline. if that doens’t happen, i will be sorely disappointed.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
so if he is a passable first basemen this year
are apologies in the offing? Or do you still want him gone… for some reason…
resign him if he is a passable 2nd baseman this year
it’s just as likely.
He is horrible at defense. Very good at hitting. This isn’t going to change all that much in one year. The extension would also come early in the season. If defensive miracles occur we can talk in August.
we are all forgetting
this is his first full year at first, but i guess you can when youd rather just hate on him
Agree, I even felt bad for Piazza when he tried to learn to play in the majors...Not easy...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
ok, i think this is starting to get a little circular, but
1) he will not become a passable first baseman. IF he does, i will offer full public apology and renounce my position on the Ministty of Plenty
2) he has a very unstable skill set that make giving him more than a one-year after his 30th birthday an extremely risky position
3) his value to the Nationals will never be more than at this season’s trade deadline. if they re-sign him to a long-term expensive contract, he turns into a dead weight. albeit a weight that will still hit some home runs, but his defense will get worse, not better, as he ages.
4) i’m not hating on Dunn. i LIKE Dunn. i always have. but he is what he is, and if the Nats commit to him for a long-term contract, it is a very bad idea. this team needs to get younger, not older.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It's about to get more circular at 2:00 pm...
CAN DUNN GET IT…UH…DONE?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
RE: he has to learn to play first.
good. I agree, He should play at least a passable first base before they commit to him long term. I wonder what the excuse will be to hate him then.
The strikeouts i’m guessing
Might want to save so
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 11:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Biggest issue with trading Dunn...?
No first baseman even close to majors…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
1st baseman are a dime a dozen
Think about who the Nationals could have gotten at first this offseason for cheap. Garko, Branyan, LaRoche.
There will be 1st baseman available. I’d look for one who can really play defense.
i actually agree with Hobbs on this one
decent hitting first basemen that can play defense practically grow on trees. and going into 2012 there are several prominent free agnet 1B. there’s no reason to overspend on Dunn when a) he’s replacable and b) could age very badly
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The team needs to use the Dunn money
Just not on Dunn. Sign draft picks, international free agents or guys who are young. Just something to help the team in 2012. If Dunn is on the 2012 team he will be hurting it. Like Guzman today.
I want this team to spend money – just do it on the right guys.
+1
i was in favor of the original Dunn signing on the caveat that Rizzzo would do the right thing and trad ehim at this year’s deadline. if that doens’t happen, i will be sorely disappointed.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Garko, Branyan, LaRoche
Garko: 29 years old, career .792 OPS
Branyan: 33 years old, career .822 OPS
LaRoche: 30 years old, career .834 OPS
Dunn: 30 years old, career .903 OPS
OK, none of these guys have put up nearly the same numbers as Dunn, and none of these guys are all that much younger than Dunn. If Dunn is destined to fall off the charts offensively, then so are these guys. There’s a good reason that Dunn gets paid so much more than these guys.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Garko, Branyan, LaRoche...
Garko: career -4.6 UZR/150 @ 1B
Branyan: career +1.6 UZR/150 @ 1B
LaRoche: career -4.3 UZR/150 @ 1B
Dunn: career -17.9 UZR/150 @ 1B
Dunn is worth 100 pts more OPS, but loses 1-2 wins on defense.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Runn Branyan for 1 year 3Million was a steal
I’d take that sort of production from 1st next year. Career +1.6 UZR and OPS of .822.
This steals happen all the time because few teams have an open first base. It would be a positive for next year not a negative. Let the RZO get creative with 5Mil and an open first.
agree on branyon
but only if he stays healthy
First base is an position for offense
If you sacrifice 70 or 80 points of OPS for pretty much any amount of defense at first, you are wasting the position.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
We need more than OPS
Post their UZR, Length of Contract and salary at least.
and yes Dunn has more than 1 season worth of Innings at first
But you could also post his 9,000 Inn in the OF.
He’s also further away from his defensive peak than his offensive peak
UZR is notoriously bad
at bring a good indicator of anything in a small sample. The general consensus is that 3 full defensive seasons should give you ap retty good idea.
It's OK for some positions
Like SS and 2b, who expect 4-5 or more chances a game. First basemen and corner OFs expect far fewer, and so the variance in UZRs is much higher.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
What I'm saying
Is that offense is a more important facet of the game than defense for a first baseman. So if I say “he’s a good hitting first baseman”, and you reply “but he’s a bad fielding first baseman”, you haven’t convinced me that he’s a bad first baseman. Similarly, if you had responded, “Yeah, but he can’t steal bases”, I would be unimpressed.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
the problem with that logic...
as I see it, it that in both cases you’re not evaluating the player’s compete value to the team. you can’t look at one and not the other. and in my opinion, you are drastically undervaluing his defensive “contribution”.
but again, my larger point is that the Nats should be getting younger, not older. and committing more than one year to player over 30 that has a serious flaw is a bad idea. In my opinion.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
But I am.
Bad defense detracts from the team, and reduces the number of wins. Good offense adds to the team, and increses their number of wins. The thing is that defense for first basemen is a minor contributor… at most a couple of wins either way for the very very best top of the line 1b to the very very worst vegetative, iron gloved, rag arm. Offense can contribute 10 or more wins for top-line players… Dunn’s offense will likely contribute 4-4.5 wins, which means he’ll more than make up for his bad defense.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
what metric are you using to come up with Dunn's projections?
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Mar 25, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
According to the hated Fangraphs...
…in both 2008 and 2009, Dunn’s defense was worse than his offense was good—roughly 30 runs above/below average for each (slightly more below average for his defense than his offense was above average).
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
On Strasburg pitching in the spring training game vs Red Sox
I bought tickets to that game… and I’ll be PO’d if the Kasten & Co. is just floating this idea to more sell tickets.
(Sorry for the interruption… you boys can now resume your bickering over AD)
ps. 3 cheers for Livo’s performance against the Yankees opening day lineup!
hip hip hooray!
hip hip hooray!
hip hip hooray!
2009
Nats fan to usher: "Hey isn’t it a bit early for the Nationals to erect a statue of Manny Acta?"
Usher: "Uh sir, that’s not a statue, that actually is Manny Acta."
If Kasten's teasing Stras just to sell out that game I'd be pi$$ed...
But I must admit to I thought for a minute when I heard the following in the interview a few days back:
Kasten: “We’re certainly not going to bring him up there just to sell some tickets…He might pitch in that exhibition game that we have up there…”
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 3:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pfff. That game'll sell out anyway.
I just hope we can fool some of the visiting Sox Nation into thinking that Remington’s is a Patriots bar again…
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Hee hee...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Mar 25, 2010 3:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

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