Washington Nationals: Pitchers are Afraid of Adam Dunn
by natsstats on Apr 19, 2010 1:29 PM EDT
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PrintThrough 12 games this season, Washington Nationals first baseman Adam Dunn has walked in an astonishing 30% of his plate appearances (11BB/37PA). In this same time period, the MLB walk rate is 9% (1298BB/14399PA). It made me wonder - is Adam Dunn's eye so good that he is not swinging at marginal pitches, or are pitchers just not throwing anything for him to hit. I pulled the PitchFX data for answers.
First, let's look at all pitches thrown so far this season. We don't really care what the pitch result is, we just want to see if the pitch was thrown in the strike zone or not. Through the Sunday night game on April 18th, there have been 55,645 pitches thrown, 24,754 thrown in the strike zone (44.49%). Through the Sunday Brewers game, Adam Dunn has seen 194 pitches, 68 of them in the strike zone (35.05%).
Using the PitchFX data, we can break down the pitches by pitch type. Adam Dunn's 194 pitches break down as follows:
- 107 Fastballs
- 28 Sliders
- 21 Change Ups
- 19 Cutters
- 15 Curve Balls
- 4 Intentional Balls
Here are the locations of the fastballs. Remember when looking at PitchFX data, the view is from behind the plate. In these charts, left handed batter Dunn would be standing on the right hand side. The red box is Adam Dunn's strike zone as defined by PitchFX.
Only 45 of the 107 fastballs are in the zone.
Here are the locations of the other pitches:
Only 23 of these pitches are in the zone.
As you can see in these charts, pitchers are not nibbling at the plate against Dunn. Many of these pitches are in the right handed batters box, or ankle high. To this point in the season, the clear strategy has been to try to get Dunn frustrated and chase pitches way out of the zone. It's obvious that teams would rather have him walk than give him the opportunity for a big hit. It's definitely something we will keep an eye on as the season progresses.
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How long can this last?
If Willingham keeps his torrid pace up, NL pitchers will soon tire of Dunn scoring without having to “work for it”.
Or, at least, that’s the theory.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
good stuff
now its up to Dunn to not get frustrated, take his walks, and have hammer make em pay so he can see something better.
So
Dunn has seen 68 strikes this season, compared to 126 balls? That’s amazing. No wonder he has a low .BA and high .OBP, what else would you expect?
by Andrew Davidson on Apr 19, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
How does this compare to previous seasons?
I imagine that pitchers have probably always pitched Dunn carefully (or at least have been careful since he established his 40-HR reputation)—do you think this season is an outlier? Given Zimm and Hammer’s great offensive 2009 seasons, it seems like pitchers would be wary of giving those two more pitches to hit just so they can walk Dunn. (Unless this is an early-season fluke because Zimmy was out of the lineup for so long.)
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Good stuff, by the way. Again.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I just checked 2009
Dunn saw 2893 pitches. 1211 in the strike zone. 41.85% in strike zone vs 35.50% thus far in 2010
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Interesting--not as low as this year, but still under league average.
…assuming league average is around the 44% we’ve seen so far this year.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I take it you didn't actually READ the article, did you?
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Don't let facts and stats interfere with snark...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 19, 2010 2:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
?????
Willingham has 11 BB’s…Adam Dudd has 11 BB’s ……after 12 games
Willingham has 3 hrs…10 rbi’s…..hitting .359 and slugging .692
Dudd has 1 hr 2 rbi’s…. hitting .162 and slugging a lowly .270
There is a story about DUDD…….because ?????
I hadn't noticed Hammer had so many walks.
Damn, he’s on a tear. His OPS+ is 213 (even better than Pudge’s 197!). I love early-season stats.
By comparison, Dunn is lagging with 73, behind both TAWH (86) and Guz (93). Heck, even AK is up at 88! It certainly isn’t a fast start, but we need at least 50 more PA before we can say is more than unlucky randomness.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
yea
if one other player has a bunch of walks, and is doing well, this must be a non story
i know you look for any chance to pee on this team, but you sound pretty silly here.
um that was in response to mamba...
reply fail
Oh, The Mamba's just happy to have something to spew about ...
after the Nats won 3 games in a row. All that bile was building up…had to come out somehow.
Angry WOes fan
Can’t blame him with the start they’ve had
Oh, wait, sorry, his profile says Giants fan. Go figure.
I've still got to see a string of games with our actual lineup...
…before I worry about Dunn. We need two of the three in the middle of our order to go great, Nyjer to get on base, and the other guys to not fall off of a cliff. In the small sample size that is the season so far, we’ve seen Pudge have an out of body experience for the good and Dunn have an out of body experience for the bad. Dunn’s defense has been acceptable so far, and I’m not hating on the man.
It’s bad for him, though because he’s costing himself contract dollars if he’s below 35 HRs for this year.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Other players with slow starts:
Prince Fielder: 0 HRs
Adrian Gonzalez: 2 HRs
Alex Rodriguez: 1 HR
Mark Teixeira: 1 HR
Troy Tulowitztki: 0 HR
Grady Sizemore: 0 HR
These six guys combined for over 200 homers last year; they have four so far this year. You think they are panicking over their slow starts?
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
I think the position change, Zimm’s injury, and Dunn’s contract situation have brought a little bit more attention to his present power outage. Like I’ve said, I’m not worried about it. Guys tend to regress or progress to career production levels. I’m glad we’re getting solid production from Desmond, Pudge, Guz, and Hammer to keep the lineup producing. Offense is not our problem. Pitching is our problems and Stammen could go a long way to helping things out with a quality start tonight against a less imposing lineup than the Phillies.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Dunn hasn't walked much the last few games
My hope is that he hasn’t started to press a bit and to “expand the strike zone” (I can’t stand that philosophy, which is one of the reasons I can’t stand Ray Knight).
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
In my mind, that always translates to, "swing at bad pitches..."
I saw an interesting article last season that looked at what Dunn was swinging at, compared to previous seasons. The guy was speculating that Dunn was swinging at more meatballs that were out the of zone compared to previous seasons—if he got a pitch he thought he could belt, he swung even it it was out of the zone. I don’t recall what data was behind it (in-zone and out-of-zone contact and swing percentages or something), and it was from early in the season, so it may have been a statistical fluke.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
agree that not walking almost always translates
that way, but not necessarily over such a small sample. its possible he just hasnt hit the ball
Maybe they should move him around for a game
With all the walks he is apparently getting why not move him in the order? Aren’t there spots where you want them to be forced to throw at him?
Dunn has been tried in the second spot on occasion in his career
I don’t think much became of it because the managers always seemed to want a contact guy and those fastballs he was supposed to get never really seemed to materialize.
Here’s an interesting tidbit about Dunn’s career that I didn’t know until just now. He has at least 25 plate appearances in every spot in the batting order except the 8-hole. He has an OPS of over .900 in each of those spots except one: the #3 hole, where it’s a shrug-worthy .790 in 482 PAs.
I’m not really sure that this means, but it is curious.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Zuckerman on Sports Reporters
Now that he’s been revealed, Patrick must be next.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Rub czaban's bald head for me when you are a guest reporter!!!
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by natsstats on Apr 19, 2010 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Awesome write-up w/art!!!
Natstats! Dude! Thanks for this! Simplicity and clarity w/stats. It’s about time. I have Dunn on my fantasy team (along w/cheering for him w/the Nats – when “not” playing the Mets) and I have been bewildered w/WTH has been going on with him.
This season I will expect the worst but I will be prepared for 'worser'.
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Apr 19, 2010 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
Great write up
On the back of this – wouldnt it make more sense to send Dunn in at 3, and Zim in at 4, Hammer at 5? If pitchers are going to be so c areful on Dunn, id be more inclined to make them pay in the 1st inning…where they are looking to throw more strikes and force the issue a little. At least it might be worth a change to see if he gets better pitches to see.
In any event…interesting tale.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
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