Continuing on the Bergman discussion from the other night
by PhDBrian on Apr 21, 2010 11:37 PM EDT
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During the game feed the other night I was involved in a discussion about the merits of Jason Bergman where I stated he was probably better than 20% of all major league pitchers and that the team was hasty is designating him for assignment based on 2.1 innings of admittably very poor work. I was asked for some proof. Well here is some (admittedly not definitive) proof whereI try and somewhat succeed in showing I was not far off in my estimate:
1. career: In his career Bergman has been worth 0.4 WAR that is a tiny smidgen above replacement. If you take out his awful two innings this season that goes up to .6 WAR for his career. So according to that measure he is a tiny bit better than a AAAA relief pitcher for his career.
FIP ERA
2005 3.53 2.75 (alomost everyone looked good in 2005 for the Nats)
2006 5.42 6.68 (he was solid then had 2 real real awful starts before he left with arm issues)
2007 4.92 4.45
2008 5.12 5.02
2009 5.08 4.50
projected by ZIPS for 2010 ERA/FIP 4.72
2. Last season 569 ptichers pitched at least 10 innings in the majors. Bergman's ERA was 4.50 which was 308th best, so 46% of all pitchers who pitched at least 10 innings had a worse ERA last season. But I am a smart guy and I know ERA sucks. Well bergman's FIP was 4.72. 406 guys had a better FIP than Bergman or 29% were worse. So more than 20% of major league pitchers were worse.
3. Well 10 innings is to low for me to believe you. Bergman had 48 innings last season. Soout of 40 IP or more guys, Bergman's era was 244th out of 387 (37% were worse) and FIP 317 out of 387 or 18% were worse. Among 50 innings which is about a full season of work for a low end relief pitcher his FIP was 281/340 or 17.4% were worse. Jamie Moyer and Tim Redding are two familiar names to Natstown who had exactly the same FIP as Bergman last season (granted they were starters and that is not exactly the same, but I didn't know most of the other guys)
Now obviously my stats above are far from perfect as I do not distinguish guys by role or league etc etc, but it is fair to say that the bulk of long relievers are bad relievers and probably fall into the group that was worse than Bergman last season. Last season was among Bergman's worst but he had issues with his arm. It is likely he is better than last season. And if he lives up to the Zips projection estimate (4.72) then he is getting closer to actually being an average major league pitcher.
Bergman is in no way a star (not even average) but he is a tad above replacement most of the time. Major league teams can clearly (and frequently do) do worse than slotting Bergman as the 6th or 7th guy out of the pen.
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all these stats say nothing...
about how he LOOKS this year
Just watch him pitch. He has a tendency to give up the gopher ball, and that seems to have gotten worse this year. He was doing it in ST, and it continued into the regular season.
You can’t just use past stats, project a player, and sit there with your thumb where the sun doesn’t shine expecting it to turn out that way unconditionally. It is a small STATISTICAL sample size, but if there’s something off about the way he’s pitching as opposed to previous years then you have to send him down before he makes a bad situation even worse.
he pitched 2.1 innings
how can you say with confidence he is worse this year at giving up gopher balls. He faced the Philles. They make everyone look bad.
He has always been a pitcher who has given up homeruns. When your a high fastball pitcher there are two constants Ks and flyballs. Flyballs turn into homeruns depending on who hit them, the park, and the wind that day. On the other hand, Bergman has also been consistently harder to reach base against than average in his career. Something not all 6th or 7th relievers can say.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
but it is fair to say that the bulk of long relievers are bad relievers and probably fall into the group that was worse than Bergman last season
No, it isnt… This is where your analysis goes south… it’s not fair to say anything that you cannot prove when we are talking statistics.
beyond that… you are defending a 0.4 WAR who is also an 85 ERA+
An FIP of 4.72 in the NL is atrocious… I think you need to cut the cord on this dude… he isnt worth the effort…
I mean really
Who’s to say that Erik Arnesen can’t or won’t be better, eventually? Maybe they move Atilano and/or Stammen there to free up space?
I detest this whole “replacement player” nonsense as the basis of evaluating a player, namely a reliever. It’s especially meaningless unless you have some level of certainty that the replacement player (that is, the player replacing the guy you’re evaluating) is actually “replacement level.”
The point is you can't say for sure who will be good in the majors from minor league stats
baseball analysis is a very inexact science. JD martin had a AAA era of less than 2 as a starter last season with like 6-1 k/bb ratio. Yet his era in the majors was over 5. Prior to his arrival in the bigs several top sabermatrics writers said he was the most effective AAA pitcher last year and deserved to come up. Yet he was not that great in the majors (he likley will be good someday). As a result, when projecting pitchers you have to look at the average replacement pitcher. The typical guy when he comes up.
What most of you guys might be missing is that scores of guys pitch in the majors every year and fail. They usually do not stay long. The guys your familiar with are the minority who succeed and stick around. Once you have a guy who is better than the scores of bad pitchers you should keep him around until your sure you have someone better. 2.1 inning s of work against the best team in the NL assures you of nothing.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
im not judging anything on this year
hes never been any good… i remember liking hill and him in the rotation the year they were in, i guess he got hurt… now hes doomed… it happens.
You seem to be missing that
You keep saying that Bergmann is better than a certain number of relievers. Well what does that matter when there are so many failures and wash-outs every year? He’s better than absolute dreck. Wow. Yipee.
The guy put up a 1.5 WHIP and a 94 ERA+ in his age-27 season and you’re really worried about being assured of something? The only thing that would possibly be assured is that he’s somewhere slightly close to the range of average.
you do realize that NL relief pitchers face very few pitchers
and do not get hardly any league adjustment as compared to AL relief pitchers. It is slight but very little and is usually washed out in park adjustments since the AL generally has more offensive parks.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
hardly get any league adjustment...
No, Ive never heard of that, in fact, ive never heard anyone mention it ever, but if you have a link i will take a look, as always.
The point is 17-20% of guys who pitched last season
in the majors where less effective when they pitched than Bergman. That is a fact. A team can easily do worse and often do. It is not easy to find quality pitchers that can get major league batters out even as badly as Bergman does it. The reason why sabermatricians usually use a FIP of over 5 as replacement level is because that is truely replacement level for a pitcher (I have seen a fip of 6 used with good arguement for a starter). Anyone who can consistently keep his FIP less than 5 is worth having in a role on some team. Probably not a closer, but on some role.
Now if you want to argue that we may have some youngster better than Bergman in the minors that is possibly true in fact I would argue probably true. But , that does not change the fact that Bergman is better than 17-20% of all guys who pitched some innings in the majors last season and almost assuredly would be again this season.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
so...
are we supposed to feel good that hes worse than more than 3/4ths of the league… I don’t
And most of those 17-20%...
…are either not very good or aren’t even with their big league clubs right now anyway.
You are defending a general pile of suck. Just let it go.
What is the point of creating a nonsensical argument?
By taking pitchers with at least 10 innings, you are massively diluting your definition of a major league pitcher. How many innings should an RP pitch to be considered a useful part of a major league team? 40 innings, 50 innings? Also, just going by FIP and ERA is so weird when you’re talking about a 5+ FIP/ERA pitchers. If I were to make this argument, I would be using pitch type values, O- and Z-swing percentage, left and right splits, not to mention some scouting reports.
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