A Sabermetrical Approach to the Question of Baseball’s Best Third Baseman
As the 2010 season is still in its infancy, I would like to revisit an aspect of the 2009 season that raised a few questions. As of 2008 the question of baseball's best third baseman revolved around the horrendously overrated David Wright, the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, and the not-related-to-Eva Evan Longoria. However last year a new player elbowed his way into the conversation. Ryan Zimmerman, the Face of the Franchise TM, replaced David Wright in the debate. This post will decisively conclude through sabermetrical analysis (and logic) who exactly the best third baseman in baseball was. More after the JUMP...
We will start by looking at a simple overview of three players: A, B, and C.
PLAYER A (2009)
BA: .292
OBP: .364
SLG: .525
OPS: .888
ISO: .233
wOBA: .377
HR: 33
R: 110
RBI: 106
UZR: 20.1
PLAYER B (2009)
BA: .281
OBP: .364
SLG: .526
OPS: .889
ISO: .245
wOBA: .380
HR: 33
R: 100
RBI: 113
UZR: 18.5
PLAYER C
BA: .286
OBP: .402
SLG: .532
OPS: .933
ISO: .245
wOBA: .405
HR: 30
R: 78
RBI: 100
UZR: -11.7
Okay. So looking at players A and B, we notice that they are strikingly similar. Nearly clones, in fact, however Player A is a better defensive/contact hitter than Player B is, whilst Player B is a better power hitter than Player A.
Player C clearly is the best offensive player of the group, however his shoddy defense makes his play less valuable to his team than the others.
As you've probably already guessed, Ryan Zimmerman is Player A, Evan Longoria is Player B, and Alex Rodriguez is Player C.
Now you're probably going to say "but clearly Zimmerman is not the best of the three", right?
Wrong. It's because you're an indoctrinated, uneducated sheep who uses ESPN for all of his baseball information. Just like most of the idiots who follow baseball.
First on the topic of offensive production, on a side not here, Zimmerman clearly has the worst offensive support of any of the players, you cannot argue against that. The Yankees lineup provides a boost to any player in it both in terms of run-scoring opportunities, run-driving opportunities, and in terms of protection. Mark Teixiera (tied for AL HR lead), Derek Jeter--I don't need to go any further. It's a fact. In addition, the Yankees have the wonderful benefit of playing in New Yankee Stadium (aka Coors Lite), which inflates power numbers (not everybody's but most people's) and thus inflates multiple stats. Evan Longoria, too, has a very good lineup. Bartlett/Zobrist/Longoria/Pena/Upton* is a potent 1-5, with ample run scoring/driving opportunities, and protection from AL HR leader Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist.
Ryan Zimmerman, on the other hand, had a merely average offense around him with little run scoring potential (until NIMH arrived) nor nearly the amount of protection Rodriguez and Longoria had, yet still compiled a line that was comparable (better in some cases, worse in others) to the other two stanchions of the hot corner.
We can agree that offensive output partially depends on your situation (stick Zimmerman in NY, Rodriguez in WAS and you'd see a huge difference in stats, it's logic not homerism), and somewhat relative, but I'm not going to throw them out, they're still relevant.
On the defensive side of the ball, it's no contest. Rodriguez was atrocious at third base (despite the fact he had a GG defender at first and short), he's not part of the conversation. Longoria had a very good year at third, coupled with sticky-glove Jason Bartlett and GG Carlos Pena. However, Zimmerman was the best of the three by a decent margin, even being the best defensive infielder in all of baseball despite the fact that he had the worst defensive 1B in baseball (by a HUGE margin) and a shortstop whose range is awful and is sub-par defensively at best. In addition, Zimmerman had the most chances of any 3B in baseball and successfully converted a high percentage of them.
The final thing to address is value, let's look at some more numbers:
Zimmerman:
Batting Value: 27.4
Fielding Value: 18.1
RAR: 70.9
WAR: 7.1
WAR$: $31.9
Longoria:
Batting Value: 29.3
Fielding Value: 15.4
RAR: 72.1
WAR: 7.2
WAR$: $31.9
Rodriguez:
Batting Value: 34.4
Fielding Value: -8.6
RAR: 44.4
WAR: 4.4
WAR$: $20.0
Of the three, Zimmerman and Longoria were the most valuable. That takes Rodriguez out of the conversation. Now by looking at all the numbers as a whole, you can make a case for either of the two to have the title "best third baseman"; however you have to incorporate the team surrounding them. Without the Rays' offensive and defensive support, Longoria's numbers wouldn't have been as high as they were. Ryan Zimmerman was the better fielder and a nearly identical offensive player, despite the gargantuan discrepancy in talent surrounding him. In the end, one can argue either of the two players all day, espousing beliefs about the AL East v the NL East, or the validity of sabermetrics, but based on the numbers, the raw data, Ryan Zimmerman was the best third baseman in baseball. The question is, can he continue to hold that title?
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lol, wrong about the "indoctrinated sheep" line
I would’ve put Longo ahead of smidge ahead of Z-man, but you have a valid point about line-up support.
Run & RBI are lousy ways to evaluate hitters
I just look at the wOBA and UZR and judge from there. You could give the edge to Zimm because he doesn’t play in a magical dome. On the other hand, Longoria faces AL pitching, which is better than NL pitching…especially since he faces the Yanks and Sox more often. But he also gets to play in the Yanks’ and Sox’ parks…which are hitter-friendly venues. AND NL East pitching (outside WSH) is better than NL pitching in general. (If only Zimm got to face the Nats’ 2008-9 staff ten times a year!)
Advantage Zimmerman by a hair.
A-Rod can jump in lake.
I concur re: r/rbi
as i said later in the post, they are heavily influenced by a player’s environment and do not properly transmit a players’ value
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 22, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
A few thoughts on this
This brings up a great point but you have to look at more than just 2009. Even in arbitration the judge looks at the past 2 seasons. Longoria has had two GREAT years where Zimmerman has had one. A-Rod’s defense is down but he’s also much older.
That being said, I think Zimmerman has more upside than any of the three.
www.TheNatsBlog.com
As D'Israeli said ...
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
Before you start calling people ’"indoctrinated, uneducated sheep" if they disagree with your premise, you should be careful not to use sleight of hand in your argument. As an initial matter, I concur with yardyoder in his point about using stats in isolation. A-Rod was recovering from hip surgery last year and so I would argue that his defense last year (even assuming, arguendo, that UZR is teh definitive statement of fielding ability) was atypical. A-rod, when fully healthy, is at least a push defender. For example, hip injury, in 2007 (prior to the series of hip injuries) he was a UZR/150 of +2.3. This restores luster to his worth created by his admittedly superior offensive production.
(despite the fact he had a GG defender at first and short)
I get why having a gold glove defender at first helps – if having a gold glove is teh definitive status of fielding worth (having a gold glove defender at SS is almost completely irrelevant for the 3b). But if you’re going to take UZR as your stat, I’ll note that Teixeira’s UZR for 2009 was -0.8. While much better than Adam Dunn, it doesn’t exactly support your premise that A-Rod should be further downgraded because of the skill of his 1b.
Bottom line: I get it, people don’t like A-Rod, but that doesn’t justify juggling stats to dismiss him when he may well be the best 3b in MLB at the moment. Of course, if we’re talking about the future, I’d take Longoria or Zim over A-Rod in a heartbeat. Yes, A-Rod’s contract is insane – but that’s not his fault. But purely as a ballplayer, for just this season, it’s not crazy to take A-Rod.
The point that you make about lineup worth surrounding the player is an interesting one, but hard to quantify. The Yankees’ lineup took off last year after A-Rod showed up. Teixeira’s stats, in particular, jumped even when A-Rod wasn’t hitting for average. It would be interesting to try to come up with a fair method for weighting for lineup value.
I agree with SS for the most part
It is almost a toss up between Zim and "he who wishes he was related to Eva:. Certainly there is more talent in the AL east than NL east, but not by much. I frankly have to give the nod to Zim like SS for many of the reasons he stated.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
in a full, healthy season, I am taking arod over both of them
for this season and probably one or two more after that…. d_c_ guy pretty much covered why someone might…. I want to adress something else..
RE: The horrendously overatted David Wright: What in heavens name are you talking about?
He had a bad year… absolutely… but cmon.
prior to 2009, the back of his baseball card looks like this:
PA: 3,047
BA:309
OBP:389
SLG: 533
OPS+139(!)
….What a bum huh?
prior to 2009, he was either a + defender or a slightly below average one according to UZR 150.
In 2007 his WAR was 8.6 in 2008 it was 7.6…
You seem to have 2009 blinders on, and if you are going to delve into advanced statistics, then you should know that sample size is is a 101 course.
You talk about “indoctrinated, uneducated sheep”
The fact that I have to defend David Wright to someone who is purporting to be above the “baseball idiots” is laughable.
I know that you’re a nats fan, we all are. But for the sake of what is true, lets try and keep the objectivity in these posts.
My post dealt with last year's best thirdbaseman...
who exactly the best third baseman in baseball was.
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 23, 2010 6:38 AM EDT up reply actions
wait so...
you thought david wright was horrendously overrated last year?
I’m confused… It’s your characterization of him as overrated I was reacting to.
also...
how do you exactly go about disqualifying Longoria? By stating that his numbers wouldnt be as good if it weren’t for the players around him? Even if that were true, and im not saying it isnt, it may be… we cant say that for sure… so how is it relevant in a post that deals primarily with cold, hard numbers?
I didn't disqualify Lognoria...
I said at the end it was up to the individual, I chose Zimmerman,
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 23, 2010 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions
who exactly the best third baseman in baseball was.
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 23, 2010 6:38 AM EDT reply actions
Sorry this wasn't supposed to be posted here, this is what I meant to post
you can make a case for either of the two to have the title “best third baseman”
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 23, 2010 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, and in the end you gave it to zimmerman based on the team that surrounds him.
I’m just wondering how you know that makes enough of a tangible difference to give it to zimmerman

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