Washington Nationals: Right Field Platoon Talk; Bryce Harper Weekend Update.
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
28 comments
In case you missed it late last week in all the end of Spring posts about the Nationals' 25-Man Roster being selected, which were quickly followed by the Nats/Sox exhibition articles and all the Opening Day hype, MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling posted a quick examination last Friday of what options Washington's Front Office was exploring in their attempts to acquire an everyday right fielder to take the place of Elijah Dukes, the 25-year-old outfielder who was released earlier this Spring. I caught and transcribed an interview Nats' team President Stan Kasten conducted with 980 ESPN Radio's The Sports Reporters last week, in which Mr. Kasten explained the void Dukes' departure had created:
"...through Spring Training, through the weeks leading up to it, and during the first couple [of games], we just didn't see enough to make us believe [Dukes] was ever going to get to what we had hoped for...Now, if we had believed he was going to be a problem all winter, we would've made a point to go out and get a right fielder..."
While the Nationals have settled on a right field platoon featuring Willie Harris and Willy Taveras, MASNSports.com's Mr. Goessling wrote last Friday, in an article entitled, "As Nats enter the season, status quo in right field", that they might be in the market for a corner outfielder a year after they had an overabundance:
"A club source said the Nationals have discussed a trade for right fielder Corey Hart with the Brewers, and talked to the Cubs about outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. They have even inquired about Rays outfielder B.J. Upton, though they came away feeling Tampa Bay wouldn't part with the 24-year-old speedster unless it was out of the AL East race this summer."
Are any of those three outfielders the answer in right? Can a platoon of Taveras, Harris, Mike Morse or even Cristian Guzman produce enough out in right field for the Nationals to get by?
• Bryce Harper Update: After The JUMP...
• Bryce Harper Update:
The College of Southern Nevada had a 15-game win streak broken on Saturday in the second-half of a doubleheader with Salt Lake Community College. CSN Coyotes' catcher Bryce Harper, thought by many to be the only real option for the Nationals' 2010 no. 1 draft pick, continued to make his own case for being the first overall selection, going 1 for 3 with a run scored a stolen base in the 3-2 loss in game two after he was 1 for 3 with a run scored, 1 RBI and a stolen base while behind the plate catching his brother Bryan Harper, who improved (8-1) on the year with 6.0 IP in which he gave up 4 hits and 1 ER while striking out 10 without allowing a walk in the Coyotes 4-1 game one win.
Bryce Harper after this weekend: 49 for 115 (.426 AVG), 13 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR's, 37 RBI's, 24 BB, 24 K's, .521 OBP, .870 SLG, 13 A, 2 ER, .989 fld%.
• One More Note On The Season Opener...Stinking Philly Phans...
Nats Insider's Mark Zuckerman takes a look at how so many Philly Phans ended up at Opening Day in DC in an article entitled, "How Philly fans overtook D.C."
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That was a little mentioned sidenote in yesterday’s loss. Willie Harris’ unproductive spectator out in the first inning certainly hurt the rally and he was unproductive. I don’t know the contractual situation of the guys you mention. What would we be offering in return? Are we in the market to try trade Wang or Thompson or others for a right fielder?
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Yeah, if you read Goessling's piece it's clear why two of these won't work...
Fukudome’s owed like &26M over two years, think he’ll stay out unless Cubs willing to eat all or most.
And Mr. Goessling’s writes that Upton won’t be available unless Rays are out of Raysce… No word on who Nats are offering…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 1:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This creates a serious chink in my AL East rooting strategies. Generally I go Rays to win and hope the Yanks and BoSox are shamed and the Nationals can win the Beltway division if nothing else. Upton would be a significant upgrade for us in RF. I’ll still root for the Rays, though because I still doubt they are going to let go of Upton for the type of players to offer. They seem to always be looking for bullpen help and that is one thing we never have.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Bryce Harper
Is there anything (besides the wooden bat) that is special re: conference harper is playing in? Is it particularly good? Has anyone come out of the conference/division X league of substance? I know that stats are good but how is the competition compared to the competition the top collegiate programs play against?
Known as one of the top juco programs in the country...FWIW...
Never heard of it myself til Harper committed there’….Will look into alumni…Everything I know about the league i’ve gotten secondhand….
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 1:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Harper for sure
Ed what do you think about taking Harper no matter what because there is no other option this year? Even if they cannot sign him it seems like they’d be better served to pick Anthony Rendon or Gerrit Cole at #2 next year instead of Tallion or Deck this year. Any chance this could happen or does the RZO have to sign the #1 pick considering Crow two years ago? That worked out fine so far with Storen and 2million in savings. It seems like the 2011 class is pretty stacked with college arms at the top + Rendon.
I honestly think, as others here have said...
(Just acknowledge that they’ve influenced my opinion), that the Nationals have some leverage here. Harper does not want to go back for a second juco season, and no position player is getting more than Stras, though I’m sure Chapman’s deal will come up in the US vs International FA argument. I think the Nats lose the leverage if they pick someone they can’t sign, if Storen wanted to he could have held the Nats over the fire knowing they’d get nothing if they hadn’t signed him. You get two chances not 3. That 2011 class of arms looks promising, but something tells me the Nats will get a good pick there as well, if not another no.1, which would be a record-setting third straight…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good point
I think they should give Harper whatever it takes because he will be a bargain regardless. That’s as a prospect even if he never does pan out. But then it’s about price. If he is less than Strasburg they should definitely do it. If Harper wants something crazy and closer to Aroldis the team will pass. If thats the case and they know that before the draft, I still say you take him and wait for 1011.
Unless one of the pitchers blows up in the 2nd half...
It’s not much of a choice right now…no one else is really being discussed as a potential no.1…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 3:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good
As long as they take Harper I’ll be happy. If they don’t sign him that would be bad but the worst move would be going cheap on Deck or something. If Harper wants 15Mil I’d guess Tallion or Deck would sign for 5mil. That would be the bad move because they should be able to get a better player in 2011 that is just as close to the MLB.
Harper’s numbers are insane, it’s just Kevin Goldstein’s comments that worry me. He keeps hinting the Nats won’t take Harper but I bet he is just wrong.
I read that Taillon wants the cash, too. So cheap would be going for another arm.
Personally I like Taillon. I think his a Matusz type pitcher but bigger, stronger and more stuff. I like Harper as well but he’s no Strasburg. The kid is very confident of his abilities and I’m worried he’d be a head case.
Roy Clark likes Southern High School pitchers...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 4:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
3 #1s in a row
We are only one game in!!! Everybody loses to Halladay. Baring a season ending injury to Zim, we will pick 3rd or 4th next season or I know nothing about baseball.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I've spent the last twenty-five years of my life
thinking about the inner workings of the game, and I still won’t claim I “know anything about baseball”.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Still waiting to be impressed
by Willie Harris in right. He’s (mis)played some balls pretty badly out there a few times the last two games. What’s that about UZR’s predicting amazing results?
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Come on
There has been 1 real game and he looked fine in my opinion. You expect him to catch the Rollins triple? Ruiz would have scored even if Harris doesn’t lay out.
Do others think he looked bad? And can we at least give him about three weeks in RF before we start clamoring for a replacement. Let’s look at his career UZR in CF and LF before saying he stinks in RF. I trust those numbers more than RobBobS but maybe I’m in the minority.
This is exactly what I'm talking about
UZR’s aren’t particularly good at predicting defense at a player’s regular position, nevermind a brand new position. Yet some here can watch him just butcher plays out there and ignore it because these super-stats tell us that he’s a great defender, case closed, end of story.
I didn’t expect him to catch the triple, but a ball hit off the scoreboard like that should probably have been a double.
I think Harris will probably be an OK right fielder eventually. The problem is that the time for sampling new positions was March, not April. Oh, yeah, and the other issue that he’s not a good enough hitter to be a regular right fielder — e.g. he posted an OPS last year that would rank above just 3 other regular RFs. Not that the Nats have any options right now (but it would behoove them to find an option).
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Ok there are a few problems here
1. Harris played that ball perfectly in my opinion. If he doesn’t dive and thus holds Rollins to a double Ruiz is still going to score from 1st. How do we know this? Well Rollins was running and he didn’t run down Ruiz. Also he was running because that ball was a clear hit off the bat. Harris made a nice attempt and maybe gave Rollins 3rd in the process. I’ll take the effort since he was close to catching an impossible ball. He also has Plush behind him who is like a ++ defender.
2. Ok if Harris is going to be good eventually can’t we give him a little break before we are so critical? If you believe UZR that he is great in LF and average in CF (which is much harder aka average in a better group of fielders) then it shouldn’t take him too long to get good in RF. How different do we really think it is from LF for a guy who is so used to switching positions like TAWH?
3. Even if you don’t believe in UZR it sounds like you believe that defense matters. Well UZR reports the relative value of defense to offense in Runs. A defensive Run is the same as an offensive Run. The best hitters produce more runs than the best defenders save. Maybe +20 for a defender like Zim and +60 for a hitter like Pujols. And Harris is a really good defender. He is also not so bad a hitter. OPS undervalues Willie’s best skill – walks.
If you go from OPS to wOBA, Harris gets better. Then when you give him credit for being a plus defender he gets even better. The total? FanGraphs lists him as worth 5.9 WAR over his last 1200 Plate Appearances (2 full seasons) which has been from 2007-2009.
4. Who is this option they should find? Trade for someone to help the team now? I say no thanks. Spend any money on the draft instead of players for today – like the Mamba says. As for Morse in RF, I say sure. He can really hit and has the most upside of all the fringe guys. But don’t disparage Willie Harris because he can really play the outfield.
You call them "problems"
I call them “differences of opinion”.
I’m sorry, I just don’t believe that a catcher would try to score from first with one out and the middle of the order coming up. You agree that Harris might well have turned the double into a triple: again with one out a bad play.
The question is how many runs could he give up while he’s trying to learn the position? I say that even a couple will be too many.
How can we give Harris “credit for being a plus defender” when we have only suspicions about how good of a defender he’ll be?
Finally, it’s nice that you’re being so protective about the Lerner’s money, but the fact of the matter is that this organization can easily afford several tens of millions of dollars more in payroll. They can certainly make a trade for a productive RF if one is available.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
differences
I’ll just say it’s not merely my opinion vs yours. There is a large movement toward baseball analytics and a lot of very smart people like UZR.
You say: The question is how many runs could he give up while he’s trying to learn the position? I say that even a couple will be too many.
I say he may give up a few runs while learning but that’s fine. I think he is going to be a very good defender quickly and thats what you are missing here.
You say:
How can we give Harris "credit for being a plus defender" when we have only suspicions about how good of a defender he’ll be?
I say we give him credit for his career UZR numbers as a plus defender in LF and average at CF. Even if you don’t use UZR do you disagree that he is great in Left and an Average CF in center?
Now if we go back to your suspicions I would say his ability in RF should be about his ability in LF. He may lose a few runs getting to his LF level but lets remember that his is great in LF. So I don’t know how he will do in right. It will take him a little while to learn but I think a very reasonable assumption is his average at the other Outfield positions. Is that so crazy? And if you agree he is good at LF (but not because of UZR) then about how valuable is being a good outfielder?
The Lerners shouldn’t be spending money on big leaguers right now. I’m fine with the Marquis deal because this team needs to win 70 games. But no more short sighted deals. Spend the money where it helps the first Nationals playoff team which is 2012 or after. Spend money on Harper and then take the most expensive guy in each subsequent draft round. I think the Lerners were wrong to pass on the 5th Rounder, Miguel Pena, last year. I would have signed Crow. I would have been happy if they signed Chapman but I can understand coming in 2nd when the price is 30Mil. But get in on the Cuban guys and young Latin players. I trust the RZO can pick these guys well
Spend the money wisely. You want a big bat right away then how about Derek Lee this off season instead of Adam Dunn. Lee plays a great first which is important with all our ground ball pitchers. But for the most part I say spend the money on guys under 25 years old until we get closer to 2012. In the meantime just fill in with veterans on good contracts. The play of the existing talented young guys will ensure this team doesn’t lose 100 games again.
Ugh...about that replacement...
Twitter chatter tonight has Nats considering Morse in right for tomorrow’s game…Riggle’s “fluid” lineup is giving me motion sickness already…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 6, 2010 8:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just like old times!
Maggles, er… Ranny… er…
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
They sure better max out in the draft.....
because been there done that in free agency….and the top tier "ain’t " coming to Gnatstown….any time soon…..
and letz be hoping they also secure the triple macarena…. by getting #1 pick in 2011…… so far it looks good…..
Are there any MLB NJ Nets out there to worry about ?…. or is that pretty much the Gnats in MLB?
One game
and you’re already implying that it’s likely that the Nats will lose more games than anyone else? That’s an, …, interesting position.
Rob
"Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run." -- Branch Rickey
Bryce Harper after this weekend: 49 for 115 (.426 AVG), 13 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR's, 37 RBI's, 24 BB, 24 K's, .521 OBP, .870 SLG, 13 A, 2 ER, .989 fld%.
After looking at that line through his 115 ABs so far…..there is no doubt. The Nationals CAN NOT pass up on Harper. He is the equivalent of Upton, Griffey, A-Roid—however I do agree he is NOT Strasburg.
Taking someone else would be a colossal mistake. I can think of two young very good players we didn’t take (Porcello, Heyward) due to monetary reasons. It’s not every day you get to have a shot at a kid with this level of talent at this age, the FO has to take him.
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on Apr 6, 2010 10:09 PM EDT reply actions
OMG! Bryce is not hitting 1.000! Something is wrong!
I am just mocking the idiots who somehow think harper isn’t worth the #1 pick because some scout finds a slight hitch (which many HR hitters and/or stars have including Mauer)
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