Is Nyjer Morgan's Defense Off This Season?
by Doghouse on May 10, 2010 3:23 PM EDT
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PrintWhen I took a look at advanced fielding stats last week, I noticed that Nyjer Morgan was well below league average at CF--for the second update in a row. "Coincidence," I thought, "statistical fluke." UZR takes time to settle down, and a few early misplays might skew things. Then I saw last night's update. Given a Nat fan's natural tendency to panic, I decided to take a look at other advanced fielding metrics.
Three easily-available advanced defensive metrics are UZR, Defensive Runs Saved, and Total Zone Runs (find UZR at fangraphs, DRS and TZR at baseball-reference). Each basically works by assigning each position a certain zone(s) on the field and then adding up how many plays fielders make on balls hit to their zone(s). The stats compare each fielder to their position's league average to find how many runs they save/cost their team. (The details are complicated: each approach has its own zones and data sources, and there are different ways to account for things like holding runners, double plays, fielding bunts, ballpark differences, etc--the broad principles are similar.) League average is always 0: a positive number is good, and a negative number is bad. I've converted runs to date in 2010 to a yearly rate based on 135 games (note, UZR rate is usually per 150 games), and it takes about 10 runs to gain/lose a win. Here's a table comparing the three stats for Nyjer in CF in 2010, and career.
| 2010 Runs | 2010 Runs/yr | Career runs/yr | |
| UZR | -5.7 | -23.6 | +15.8 |
| DRS | -5 | -24 | +16 |
| TZR | -6 | -26 | +19 |
Right now, T. Plush is on pace to cost the Nationals 4 wins compared to his career numbers in CF. After the jump, a look at some traditional defensive measures, too. What's up with Plush?
In all cases, I'm just looking at Morgan's stats in CF (in 2010, career, and in other years), and I'm only comparing him to other NL CF or to NL-average in CF.
Nyjer has made 3 errors so far this season, worst in the NL. His 74 total chances (69 putouts, 2 assists) give him a fielding percentage of .960--also worst in the NL. By comparison, he made 3 errors in 168 chances in 2009, and he has a career .981 FP (.987 in 2009).
Morgan's range also seems to be a bit less this year: his range factor per 9 (RF/9: number of outs made in the field per 9 innings played) is 2.51, slightly below league-average (2.55) and in the middle of pack among CF. However, Nyjer is usually well above average in terms of RF/9: career he's 3.07 (compared to 2.61 league avg), and he was 3.21 in 2009 (compared to 2.60 league average). Why isn't Nyjer making more outs in CF? Is the Rizzo model of groundballing starters robbing him of chances? I decided to break out RF/9 for IF positions and OF positions, and compare 2009 and 2010 for the Nats (League avg in parens):
| 2009 | 2010 | |
| IF RF/9 | 30.95 (30.65) | 31.32 (31.15) |
| OF RF/9 | 7.05 (6.61) | 7.03 (6.26) |
Well, that doesn't seem to be the answer--it looks like the OF is making more outs compared to league average in 2010 than it was in 2009 (note that RF measures putouts + assists, so we're double-counting some outs). (As a side note, the Nats being above-league-average in both IF and OF RF is because they have fewer strikeouts than league average. A K counts as a PO, but most IF plays count as a PO+A, resulting in a higher team-total RF.) Okay, are pitchers somehow not squaring up on the ball, and always pulling it or going the other way to the OF? Again, splitting up RF/9 by OF position and year (with league-average in parens):
| 2009 | 2010 | |
| RF RF/9 | 2.21 (2.08) | 2.26 (2.00) |
| CF RF/9 | 2.84 (2.60) | 2.61 (2.55) |
| LF RF/9 | 2.00 (1.93) | 2.16 (1.71) |
Huh--looks like more balls are getting hit to the corners (or at least fielded there). LF, especially, is making more outs compared to league average in 2010 than in 2009, while CF is making fewer. Some of this might be early-season statistical fluctuation: six more POs or assists in CF (above the 81 to date), and the CF RF/9 would be up around 2.8.
Finally, let's look at a semi-advanced statistic, balls in zone (BIZ) and out of zone (OOZ). These are halfway to the advanced metrics: the number of balls hit into a player's zone (BIZ), the number of those balls he makes a play on, and the number of plays he makes outside of his assigned zone (OOZ). We're not trying to convert these into runs saved/lost, though, just looking at how he's doing on the raw numbers (from fangraphs). I've got Morgan's BIZ per 9 innings (to show how many chances he's getting), revised zone rating (RZR--number of BIZ that he made plays on), and his OOZ plays per 9 innings from 2009 and 2010 (league average in parens):
| 2009 | 2010 | |
| BIZ/9 | 2.26 (2.21) | 2.20 (2.01) |
| RZR | .957(.936) | .839 (.912) |
| OOZ/9 | 0.92 (0.63) | 0.60 (0.63) |
Nyjer is getting chances at a higher-than-league-average rate. However, he's not converting them: his RZR is lowest in the league. He's also not making as many out-of-zone plays; he made them at a 50% higher rate last season. It would take one more OOZ play to get him up to league average (he has 17 so far this year), but 8 to get him up to last year's rate. Likewise, he would have to have made 4-5 more plays (on top his 52 thusfar) to get up to a league-average RZR. It's still early. A full season in CF should generate around 300 BIZ (he has 62 so far), so it's certainly possible to end up with something more in line with 2009.
What have we learned? Well, the advanced stats agree: Nyjer is fielding well below his career numbers. The less-advanced stats also agree: Nyjer has made more errors and fewer outs than his career rates. We're early enough that all that may have been skewed by 3-6 bad plays, but Plush will need to make a lot of good plays going forward to get up to his career stats. Keep an eye on center, and keep your fingers crossed. Maybe all of the misplays came early...
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shhhh...
you’re not supposed to critique Nyjer Morgan.
don’t you know he’s the key to the Nats success in the field and on offense cause he’s fast, reckless and has a personality.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on May 10, 2010 3:38 PM EDT reply actions
what is the perception of his fielding , though
I like advanced statistics but I’ve always viewed them as a replacement when you can’t watch/scout the player. After all, why pay scouts when you could just sort ops+ and zone ratings, sort your spreadsheet and draft/arbitrate accordingly?
Anyway, point is I don’t perceive him at CF as as big a liability as the numbers do. I’ve watched most but not all the games so far and the worst I’ve remembered is a couple of throws to the plate that were aimed at rob dibble. Maybe his adrenaline was up because there was someone on third with a ball hit deep in a close game. (I don’t think there’s a metric yet that compares those types of situations versus a fly to the gap that you could dive for but the games already a blowout).
The only real problem that I see is if he turns into a real underperformer, he can still sleep easy since there’s no depth at OF
He looks like a great fielder, which is why the numbers surprised me...
…but your eyes can deceive you. One guy might make a spectacular diving catch on a ball that another guy catches on the run—the first guy looks better, but the second guy is better. Numbers and scouting complement each other. Be confident when they agree, but be worried when they don’t (until you understand why—I’m still leaning more toward “early season fluke” than “Nyjer’s glove is broke.”).
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
He's orders of magnitude better than Thrilledge was.
Not that that’s a great bar to set. How much time has he gotten in CF before this year, though? I know that the Pirates had him in left quite a bit.
My big things were for him to play decent defense, get on base, and have a decent percentage stealing. I’m much more worried about Nyjer on the basepaths than in the field.
I think it’s small sample size more than anything else. Does better RF defense lower his value a little bit? That may be one possible explanation. With a decent RF next to him he is not carrying as much weight in CF. Don’t know about that or not.
While I’m solid at math, I tend to avoid the thornier statistical problems in baseball because I come to the game for entertainment and all this kind of stuff can start to feel like work.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
He's way better than me too
but…..
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
From a completely qualitative standpoint
I can think of a handful of plays this year where Nyjer’s had a chance at a sick diving play (one that he made a ton of last year) and missed it by a foot, thus costing an extra base or two. He also doesn’t have much of an arm, and has let a couple balls drop in for singles that I thought he might have had a play at.
How much does one missed play affect his ratings if a player is fairly solid and reliable, otherwise? I’m more than happy with Nyjer at CF and there’s no reason to worry, I think. But he’s certainly not having the same impact that he had in the second half of last year.
Nothing at all to worry about
Fangraphs says fairly often that a good sample size for UZR is something on the magnitude of 3 years of data. All defensive metrics need a lot of time to get any meaningful reads.
My Son.
2010 Giants: "The thing is, it happened."
personally
im much more worried about him at the plate…. He needs to stop bunting on 3 ball counts…
Well MissB's take...or you guys and your flippin' numbers!
The only metric I need is how much hair would we have collectively pulled out if Blasto were still in CF?
Ironically, that hair could be put to a really good use at the moment. Seems hair is a great absorber of spilled oil.
It's probably just bad luck and random variation, not a true indicator of poor fielding skill.
Probably. Lasto is 14.7 UZR/150 career in CF, but that’s on about six times as many BIZ as Nyjer’s had so far this season-we can be much more confident that Milledge is a bad CF than we can that Morgan is.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Stupid comment formatting:
Lasto is -14.7 UZR/150 career in CF, but that’s on about six times as many BIZ as Nyjer’s had so far this season.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Do I REALLY need to comment?
You guys know how I feel about fangraphs! LOL There’s a reason games are played on the field, and not on paper with a pencil and calculator. However, don’t be mislead by my remarks….I am amused with all your stat-geek discussions, and there are more here than on any other Nats blog that I keep up with! I am most amused with the comment, and I wholeheartedly agree, that these stats are “not a TRUE indicator of poor fielding skill.”
Heretic
Sabermetrics are the truth. Although I agree UZR does need to be paired with the naked eye…sometimes.
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on May 10, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
30 games' worth of UZR needs to be paired with naked eye...
…once we’re up to something like a full season, we’ll feel more comfortable with UZR (okay or 3 seasons…)
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Yup.
Which is why I believe it needs to be paired sometimes.
But after a while (years), if the numbers show somebody isn’t a good defender, yet people are like “omgz hes prty in teh field tho!!!1”….
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on May 10, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
yea why use stats, which record every single play
What i see with my own two eyes is all the proof I need, dernit…
This probably suffers from small sample size, but saying that the ‘naked eye’ is better than advanced statistics is so foolish…
MOAR GUAC!!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Guacamole?......... I don't get it...
"There's a *raccoon* roaming the concourse at Space Coast Stadium." -Strasburg's Debut
by cat daddy3000 on May 10, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
(Avagadro = Avocado)
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Excuse me, "Avogadro," that is.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
oh...science joke....
"There's a *raccoon* roaming the concourse at Space Coast Stadium." -Strasburg's Debut
by cat daddy3000 on May 11, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
It's a balance....
…your eyes can tell you something, especially if there aren’t enough numbers for the stats to be reliable.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
[Rizzo points to head]
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on May 11, 2010 4:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Stats are important......
but far from being the only tool in scouting players. Those of you who think otherwise, are truly foolish. Simply a novelty here on the blog scene. During the Nats Town Meeting before the season started, when asked about sabermetrics, it was funny that Riggleman could not recall the name of the company used to provide the team stats on its’ players, but I guarantee you that he could name each and every scout in the organization. He was, however, nice enough to acknowledge that stats are somewhat important. But seriously, I find you guys amusing, and I even use some of the offensive stats when picking my “fantasy” teams…..so, stats are great for “fantasy” sports! lol
Heh, I remember that--the guy specifically asked about UZR...
..and Riggs was all, “Uh, yeah, we have some guys. They give us spreadsheets and stuff. You know, whatever.” I think maybe Riggles isn’t such a numbers guy.
I don’t think anyone’s arguing that stats are the only tool for scouting players, but they’re certainly a complement to scouts. Stats are more useful when it comes to evaluating players with significant playing time in the majors, and they’re a zillion times more accessible for the fan who can’t actually go out and see every home and away game (or find enough time to see/listen on TV/radio) to keep track of the team’s talent, much less potential opposing talent. Heck, I can’t even keep up with all the talent on our divisional rivals, forget other teams—the numbers are a shortcut for me.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Advanced statistics are
An incredible useful tool for evaluating talent… particularly batted ball stats… LD%, HR/FB Rate, Z swing… etc… These stats are all posted at the “evil” fangraphs site. The reason they are so useful is because they let you know what is happening beyond the standard numbers. For example, if a guy hits .300 one year, but has a low linedrive rate and a high BABIP… well, it’s a safe bet that that number is unsustainable. (There are other factors, of course, but for the sake of the example, that’s fine)
These types of numbers helped me write an article this offseason about the world of regression Pablo Sandoval was in for this year unless he performed a massive overall of his skill set… Thus far, his early numbers are consistent with those he put up last season… and its beginning to show. While others were drafting him early in round 3… I was able to side step him in every league… thanks to gasp advanced statistics. Can he still turn it around? Of course, it’s a relatively young season. However based on his similar numbers and habits from last year that are reemerging this year, I doubt it. Those who saw “with their eyes” the great season he had last year, told me I was crazy. In fact, the general comment consensus was “FU I’m drafting him early and feeling good about it.” Good, enjoy him:)
The point is, that while the majority of the baseball world is busy looking at the surface, advanced statistics can show you how a guy is really performing, break it down piece by piece and let you really know what’s up… how is that a bad thing? If more GM’s used advanced statistics when evaluating talent they’re teams would be BETTER, not worse.
In case anyone is interested in the afformentioned article:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2010/tips_caution_sandoval.php
me= obvious plug whore:)
+1
Especially this:
If more GM’s used advanced statistics when evaluating talent they’re teams would be BETTER, not worse.
Go Nats!!!!!
by StrasburgSavior on May 11, 2010 6:15 AM EDT up reply actions
You Were Also There!
It was a pretty funny town meeting….I was wondering how many folks from this forum attended. In fact, as soon as the guy asked the question, my first thought was, “I wonder if this is one of my stat-geek friends from Fed Baseball!” lol
Lannan was pretty funny!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
My naked eye sees that he is missing many plays he made last season
so the defensive stats are right by my eye.
I do think he is losing some chances from LF and RF that he would have had last season. Our corner outfield is as good as it gets glove-wise and he is letting them field more in the gaps.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
CF vs RF/LF was what I was trying to get at with the RF/9 numbers...
…however, if Nyjer had fielded 5-6 of the chances he’s missed, both his RF/9 and his RZR would be about line with last year. He does seem to be making fewer OOZ plays this season, which could be thanks to better speed and stickier gloves in the corners (although he might still have some leeway to go to his right, heh).
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I agree with PhDBrian
My naked eye sees he’s missing plays made last year….
(At times it’s going in on the ball, at times it’s going back and at times it’s laterally (not to mention some throwing decisions and an average at best arm). A few games back he “allowed” Ramirez HR, I think because he took a bad route to the ball and he still nearly robbed him. But last year I think he would have been waiting at the fence (instead of still running), to make the jumping grab.)
So I have to admit that right now the stats seem to bear out what we can be seen with the naked eye.
Brian – you say the our corner outfield is as good as it gets… are being you serious?
I’d be curious to know if that evaluation from a stat perspective or “nake eye”.
I think there has been a huge improvement there, but I wouldn’t say it’s “as good as it gets”.
In the late innings maybe...
…Harris-Morgan-Bernie (or J-Max or TVRZ) going left-to-right looks like basically no open grass. Despite his early success, I suspect Hammer ends up around league-average with the glove in LF (just checking the stats, latest update has him back slightly below average). That’s fine, because: (0 UZR) + (Hammer at the plate) = WINZ!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Yes, but he seemed to already have the skills last year…. I’m still hopeful that he will revert the form he showed then.
Rizzo thought that he was playing out of position with the Pirates and looked like a genius when brought him here to play center and lead off.
Anybody know where he was in the batting order with the Pirates?
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